Governo quer criar novo tribunal de respostas rápidas

[Dukco]

Alguém sabe a presumível hora portuguesa a que se saberão resultados relativamente definitivos?

As cadeias de tv dão as previsões de sondagens à boca das urnas logo que fecham na costa leste, a partir da meia noite de cá, e costumam acertar. Como os estados mais críticos fecham uma hora depois, só lá para a 1 da manhã.

Mas se os resultados estiverem muito próximos vão declarando "too close to call" e pode levar horas até haver definição.

Ou então pode acontecer o mesmo que na Florida em 2000, mas agora em 3 ou 4 estados e então pode levar semanas...

Na CNN já disseram que no Ohio há pessoas a votar com uma papel provisório (alguém sabe o nome disso?) pelo que se a votação entre os candidatos for muito próxima pode levar semanas a saber os resultados finais, porque esses papéis têm de ser verificados.

[Quimporta]

eu sempre fui pro Obama... mas nos ultimos dias tenho vindo a pensar se o Romney não poderia ajudar mais a economia dos EUA e do mundo em geral...

Poderias fundamentar esse pensamento?

Neste site Project Vote Smart é possível fazer uma espécie de "mating test" com os candidatos.

Embora não se refira especificamente só à economia fica mais fácil fundamentar a prefrência.

Ao contrário do meu "mating test" tradicional, aqui não resultou uma orangotanga de nome "Morangotanga", mas uma afinidade de ~80 % para o tio Barack, o que mostra alguma evolução . Com ~60% de afinidade aparece-me um tal de Rocky Anderson, cuja probabilidade de "alguém" conhecer é quase igual à de ele conhecer esse "alguém"

Alguém sabe a presumível hora portuguesa a que se saberão resultados relativamente definitivos?

O Bush, em 2000, soube pouco depois da meia noite... do dia 8... de Dezembro!

[Pantone]

eu sempre fui pro Obama... mas nos ultimos dias tenho vindo a pensar se o Romney não poderia ajudar mais a economia dos EUA e do mundo em geral...

Poderias fundamentar esse pensamento?

[pvg80713]

eu sempre fui pro Obama... mas nos ultimos dias tenho vindo a pensar se o Romney não poderia ajudar mais a economia dos EUA e do mundo em geral...

[Pantone]

Por curiosidade, e para constatar as diferenças entre os processos eleitorais nos USA, aqui ficam os endorsements do Washington Post.

Em Maryland vão a referendo 7 questões:

President and Vice President
Barack Obama and Joseph R. Biden Jr. (D)

District of Columbia
Delegate - Eleanor Holmes Norton (D)
D.C. Council - Chairman: Phil Mendelson (D)
At large (two seats): David Grosso (I), Leon J. Swain Jr. (I)
Ward 2: Jack Evans (D)
Ward 4: Muriel E. Bowser (D)
Ward 7: Ron Moten (R)
Ward 8: no endorsement

Board of Education
At large: Mary Lord
Ward 7: Karen Williams
Ward 8: Philip Pannell

Charter Amendments
Charter V, expulsion of council members: for
Charter VI and VII, disqualification of felons for office: against and against

Maryland
U.S. Senate - Benjamin L. Cardin (D)
U.S. House of Representatives
4th District: Donna Edwards (D)
5th District: Steny Hoyer (D)
6th District: John K. Delaney (D)
8th District: Chris Van Hollen (D)

Ballot Questions
Question 1 and 2, Orphans’ Court: for and for
Question 3, suspending elected officials: for
Question 4, Maryland Dream Act: for
Question 5, redistricting: against
Question 6, same-sex marriage: for
Question 7, gambling expansion: for

Montgomery County
Board of Education
At large: Morris Panner
District 2: Rebecca Smondrowski
District 4: Christopher Barclay

Ballot Questions
Question A, disability hiring: for
Question B, police reform: for

Prince George’s County
Board of Education
District 1: Zabrina Epps
District 4: Micah Watson
District 5: Jeana Jacobs
District 7: Henry P. Armwood Jr.

Virginia
U.S. Senate - Timothy M. Kaine (D)
U.S. House of Representatives
8th District: James P. Moran (D)
10th District: Frank R. Wolf (R)
11th District: Gerald E. Connolly (D)

Ballot Questions
Question 1, eminent domain: no

[atomez]

Alguém sabe a presumível hora portuguesa a que se saberão resultados relativamente definitivos?

As cadeias de tv dão as previsões de sondagens à boca das urnas logo que fecham na costa leste, a partir da meia noite de cá, e costumam acertar. Como os estados mais críticos fecham uma hora depois, só lá para a 1 da manhã.

Mas se os resultados estiverem muito próximos vão declarando "too close to call" e pode levar horas até haver definição.

Ou então pode acontecer o mesmo que na Florida em 2000, mas agora em 3 ou 4 estados e então pode levar semanas...

[Elias]

Alguém sabe a presumível hora portuguesa a que se saberão resultados relativamente definitivos?

Encontrei este site que diz que irá transmitir resultados em real-time:

http://www.electionprojection.com/2012_ ... esults.php

[Dukco]

Alguém sabe a presumível hora portuguesa a que se saberão resultados relativamente definitivos?

[LTCM]

512 Paths to the White House
Select a winner in the most competitive states below to see all the paths to victory available for either candidate.

[Quimporta]

Carranchinho... o homem (?!) certo para desencantar este trabalhador de colarinho azul do Ohio

[carrancho]

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/OjrthOPLAKM" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

[Quimporta]

Release "the Biden" !!
Com vice assim por perto, nenhuma eleiçao está decidida...

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[Quimporta]

Ganda notícia para Romney! Se perder nos EUA ainda tem futuro no Pakistão!

Á atenção da administração do Caldeirão: não se percebe é como é que a BBC não sondou num país com relevância cosmopolítica ímpar, que como todos sabem é Portugal!
Abre a oportunidade de se criar uma sondagem aqui, enviar os resultados á BBC e colmatar assim esta imperdoável falha, para descanso dos analístas.

BBC poll: Rest of world favours Obama
BBC News, 22 October 2012


A BBC World Service opinion poll has found sharply higher overseas approval ratings for US President Barack Obama than Republican challenger Mitt Romney.

An average of 50% favoured Mr Obama, with 9% for Mr Romney, in the survey of 21,797 people in 21 countries.

Only Pakistan's respondents said they would prefer to see Mr Romney win November's election.

France was the most strongly pro-Obama (72%).

The survey was conducted by GlobeScan/PIPA between 3 July and 3 September.

[Quimporta]

"Soy Mitt Romeny y apruebo esto mensaje"... ou a política do mais rasca que pode haver, a 5 dias das eleições...

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/lRYrhFFd5mE" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

[Quimporta]

Ainda assim há quem especule se esta Sandy não chegou mesmo a tempo de dar um sopro no Presidente.

É natural que sim. Em tempos de catástrofe e incerteza o pessoal prefere agarrar-se aquilo que conhece do que apostar no desconhecido.

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout ... 05809.html

Não deixa de ser curioso, num país gigantesco como os states e ao fim de tanto tempo de campanha, esperar-se um impacto tão grande de uma "simples" divulgação de um indicador económico (emprego). É autenticamente uma maratona a ser decidida com um sprint nos 100m finais.

Automech... é desporto nacional!!
Ou me engano muito, ou è encher o frigorífico de cerveja e tremoços, que isto ainda mal começou.

The craziest, most nail-biting elections in U.S. history
You may be surprised to learn that Bush-Gore doesn't even crack the top 3
POSTED ON OCTOBER 31, 2012, AT 6:18 AM

(...)
1800: Thomas Jefferson vs. Aaron Burr
In the early days of the republic, electors each cast not one, but two electoral votes for president. Adding to the confusion: There was no such thing as "election day" as we know it now. States voted whenever they felt like it over a period running from April to October. It was a long, drawn-out, and often confusing process.

The republic was just 24 years old when Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr squared off against President John Adams and Charles Pickney. Yet electors gave both Jefferson and Burr — who were on the same ticket — 73 electoral votes apiece. Adams got 65, and Pickney 64.(...)

1824: John Quincy Adams vs. Andrew Jackson
Jackson (you know him from the $20 bill) crushed John Quincy Adams, the son of our second president, John Adams, in both the popular vote (41 percent to 31 percent) and in the electoral college (99 to 84). Yet Adams won. How could Adams lose both the popular vote and electoral college yet win the White House?

Unfortunately for "Old Hickory," as Jackson was known, there were two other men on the presidential ballot in 1824: William Crawford of Georgia, who received 41 electoral votes, and Henry Clay of Kentucky, who got 37. Because the four men received a combined 271 electoral votes, Jackson had a plurality but not a majority. He needed 136, but had only 99.(...)

1876: Samuel Tilden vs. Rutherford Hayes

It happened again: A candidate lost after getting the most popular votes and the most electoral votes on election day.

In addition to snagging 51 percent of the popular vote, New York Gov. Samuel Tilden (D) won 184 electoral votes — one short of winning the White House. His rival, Ohio Gov. Rutherford B. Hayes (R), won just 48 percent of the vote and 165 electoral votes. Here's the catch: Twenty other electoral votes in several states were disputed and went uncounted. The states: Florida, Louisiana, South Carolina and Oregon.

In all three southern states, it looked like Tilden won the popular vote. But there were allegations of fraud (ink-smeared ballots and bribery) and voter intimidation. Chaos ensued. In Florida, for example, the Republicans said they won by 922 votes. Democrats say they did — by 94 votes.

Meantime, in Oregon, both Democrats and Republicans agreed that Hayes won the state. But when the Democratic governor found out one Republican member of the electoral college was a federal worker (a postmaster) and ineligible to serve, he replaced him with a Democrat. The Republican elector promptly resigned his post office job and said that as a private citizen, he would cast his electoral college vote for Hayes.

All four states submitted two sets of electoral vote counts each to Congress, all with different results. To untangle the mess, Congress set up an electoral commission: five members of the House, five members of the Senate, and five Supreme Court Justices.(...)

And you thought Bush-Gore was messy...
Fonte

[Automech]

Ainda assim há quem especule se esta Sandy não chegou mesmo a tempo de dar um sopro no Presidente.

É natural que sim. Em tempos de catástrofe e incerteza o pessoal prefere agarrar-se aquilo que conhece do que apostar no desconhecido.

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout ... 05809.html

Não deixa de ser curioso, num país gigantesco como os states e ao fim de tanto tempo de campanha, esperar-se um impacto tão grande de uma "simples" divulgação de um indicador económico (emprego). É autenticamente uma maratona a ser decidida com um sprint nos 100m finais.

[Quimporta]

A menos de uma semana do dia das eleições a única quase-certeza que tenho é que "as eleições" não vão terminar nesse dia.

No mínimo mais umas semanas de recontagens e fortunas a jorrar para lobistas e advogados dos partidos...

I Don’t Know
By Joe Klein, Time, Oct. 29, 2012

We’re a week away from the election. I’m in the doldrums, stuck in a Washington hotel while a storm called “Sandy” pummels Bruce Springsteen’s beloved Jersey Shore. I tried to spend a day out with the President and Bill Clinton, but my shirt got caught. We went to Florida last night and the storm kept us spinning right back to DC this morning.

Over the past week, everyone’s been asking me who’s going to win. Beats me. I really don’t know. The polls seem stalled, hilariously inconclusive.

The race is frozen, more or less, for the next few days–except for the advertising. It remains to be seen whether, in the absence of any other news except the storm, Mitt Romney’s wildly misleading new auto ad will prove to be a problem for him in Ohio and other midwestern states, where people credit the President with having saved their jobs more than they discredit Romney for having opposed Obama’s plan. Chrysler has vehemently refuted Romney’s inference that it plans to move Jeep production to China; it’s actually adding auto production jobs here. In a year where Romney’s campaign has unsheathed a steady stream of false claims, flips and flops, and still managed to find itself in a position where it could win the election, you have to wonder if even an ad this brazen will backfire. (You also have to wonder why the Obama campaign chose not to highlight Romney’s flips and flops. Presidential campaigns are all about character, I believe; Romney’s abdication of any pretense to constancy should have been the major character issue.)

The Romney ad has a whiff of desperation to it, an indication–perhaps–that the Republican is finding Ohio a difficult nut to crack. But why was the President scheduled to travel to Wisconsin tomorrow (cancelled by the storm) and why is he putting major ad money back into Pennsylvania? I tend not to trust anything that comes out of presidential campaigns at this point in the process, especially attempts by said campaigns to “analyze” how things are going. Both sides seem jelly-legged at this point.

So we’re in the quiet eye of the election. And I promise you, this thing can spin either way when we emerge. There will be a jobs report this Friday. There may be other surprises.

But anyone who claims to know who is going to win is blowing smoke.



After canceling his appearance at a morning campaign rally in Orlando, Fla., President Barack Obama walks toward the White House in a driving rain after returning to Washington to monitor preparations for early response to Hurricane Sandy, Oct. 29, 2012

[LTCM]

Ainda assim há quem especule se esta Sandy não chegou mesmo a tempo de dar um sopro no Presidente.

É natural que sim. Em tempos de catástrofe e incerteza o pessoal prefere agarrar-se aquilo que conhece do que apostar no desconhecido.

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout ... 05809.html

[atomez]

Se o Vultur andasse por aqui arranjava já um link a explicar que isto foi tudo organizado e preparado por alguém para reeleger o Obama.

A chamada "october surprise"!

[Automech]

Se o Vultur andasse por aqui arranjava já um link a explicar que isto foi tudo organizado e preparado por alguém para reeleger o Obama.

[atomez]

Ainda assim há quem especule se esta Sandy não chegou mesmo a tempo de dar um sopro no Presidente.

É natural que sim. Em tempos de catástrofe e incerteza o pessoal prefere agarrar-se aquilo que conhece do que apostar no desconhecido.

[Quimporta]

Os candidatos suspenderam a campanha para dar atenção à tempestade "Sandy".

Ainda assim há quem especule se esta Sandy não chegou mesmo a tempo de dar um sopro no Presidente. Para já parece que as coisas lhe estão a correr melhor do que seria de esperar, sobretudo se a comparação for a resposta ao Katrina do tempo do Bush.

Mais significativa ainda é esta inesperada ajuda do Governador do Estado de New Jersey, Chris Christie, até aqui uma das maiores muletas de Romney, que vem dizer nas barbas da FOX NEWS que "se está a lixar para as presidenciais, tem trabalho para fazer" e agradece ao Presidente a resposta pronta.

Isto a meio de uma eleição que se decide ao photo finish. O tio Mitt Romney deve estar a perguntar se o furacão não terá fundido os fusíveis a este Governador, supostamente amigo.

Cá para mim digo... ainda vamos ouvir falar muito deste Chris Chirstie...

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[Quimporta]

Do Newspapers' Presidential Endorsements Still Matter?
Bloomberg Businessweek, By Elizabeth Dwoskin on October 29, 2012

It’s that point in the election cycle when the editorial boards of major newspapers offer readers their attempt at a measured assessment of which candidate is better qualified to be president. President Obama is the favorite so far. In the past week he has received the endorsement of the New York Times, the L.A. Times, even the Salt Lake Tribune—the newspaper of Mitt Romney’s home state of Utah.

According to the American Presidency Project at the University of California Santa Barbara, which tracks endorsements of the top 100 major newspapers based on daily circulation, 33 newspapers with a total circulation of 8,785,527 have endorsed Obama. The 27 newspapers that have endorsed Romney have a circulation of 4,902,794.

For the candidates, these endorsements are a big deal. They brandish the endorsements in television ads and brag about them in campaign stops. They are a big deal for the media as well. Despite Hurricane Sandy, the New York Times’ endorsement of Obama, on Saturday, was still the most-clicked item on the paper’s website on Sunday night.

Beyond that, it’s hard to tell how much endorsements matter. Shortly after the Columbus Dispatch, in central Ohio, endorsed Mitt Romney, NPR correspondent David Folkenflik surveyed locals to see if the paper’s endorsement would have an impact on their vote.

One newspaper reader, a restaurant manager and Romney supporter named Mark Piscionari, told NPR: “Honestly, it doesn’t influence me at all. There’s definitely an underlying mistrust in the media from my perspective.”

Another said: “My opinion is as valid as the editor of the newspaper. ”

In other words, as public confidence in the media continues to decline and voters become increasingly accustomed to hyperpartisan media, the very idea that readers would trust some editorial board to come to a balanced, authoritative conclusion about a candidate’s record can seem an anachronism. Says Diana Owen, Georgetown University political science professor: “People’s faith in the media has been low for a long time now, and that has made media endorsements less relevant for many voters. For newspaper endorsements, the low level of trust is compounded by a declining number of people who rely on newspapers for their campaign information or who find newspapers helpful in making their voting decisions,” she said. “The endorsement of a high-profile, well-established newspaper will be noted by political sophisticates, but it is not likely to influence the general public.”

Paul Beck, a political science professor at Ohio State who has tracked elections for decades, agrees. Endorsements matter “at the margins at best,” he says, adding that in recent years, newspapers have been dropping the tradition of endorsing, or not opting for it (Bloomberg Businessweek and Bloomberg View do not endorse). “There’s been a trend with newspapers probably worrying more about alienating their audience,” Beck explains. As newspapers struggle to hang on economically, he says, they may be more concerned about losing readers because they are perceived as biased. Margaret Sullivan, the Times’ public editor, pointed out in Sunday’s paper that many readers do not understand that the editorial side of newspapers operates independent from the news side.

Part of the reason endorsements matter less than they once did is because the media itself matters less. According to Pew, voters are increasingly getting news about the candidates from the campaigns themselves, rather than from journalists.

Another, more mundane reason is that endorsements are predictable. Readers would be utterly shocked if the New York Times endorsed Mitt Romney. Which is why the Salt Lake Tribune’s bold endorsement of Obama caught some eyeballs. “When the Salt Lake Tribune endorses Obama over a Mormon,” Beck says, “that gets attention.”

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/20 ... ill-matter

[Quimporta]

O Ohio é um estado especial: desde, pelo menos, 1972 que quem ganha o Ohio ganha a Casa Branca. Não há nenhum outro Estado em que isto aconteça.

O que só reforça o que eu disse, Elias.
O Ohio elege 18 delegados ao Colégio Eleitoral. Michigan e Pensilvânia elegem 16 e 20 respectivamente, o que teria um impacte semelhante na corrida. Se estivessem verdadeiramente em jogo não se estava a falar apenas do Ohio.

Mas... (há sempre um mas...) há um factor externo que pode vir ainda a ter uma palavra, e daí a Pensilvânia ainda não estar no caixote dos esquecidos, como muitos outros: a chamada "vote supression law que pode afectar até 9% da população, principalmente os que não possuem carta de condução, ou seja os com menos recursos...

O congressista Mike Turzai (Republicano) distraiu-se há tempos e deixou escapar qual a verdadeira motivação para essa lei na Pensilvânia.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/87NN5sdqNt8" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

[Elias]

O Ohio é um estado especial: desde, pelo menos, 1972 que quem ganha o Ohio ganha a Casa Branca. Não há nenhum outro Estado em que isto aconteça.