Como se combate o populismo? "Com eleições", responde Fukuyama

[atomez]

Apple upgraded by Morgan Stanley on expected iPhone boom

Arguing that the market is underestimating demand for iPhones over the next two calendar years, investment bank Morgan Stanley on Tuesday upgraded shares of Apple to Overweight from Equal-weight, saying success of the touchscreen handset should offset any growth risks in the company's core Mac and iPod businesses.

"We believe Apple is emerging as the clear leader in the battle over the mobile Internet," wrote analyst Katy Huberty, who also boosted her 12-month price target on the company's shares to $180 from $105. "We size this as an incremental 4 billion installed base opportunity for Apple, 4x the installed base of PCs and 10x the installed base of MP3 players."

First, she believes Apple will cut the price of the existing iPhone 3G to $99-$149 from $199 when it introduces new models next month, spurring a 50%-100% incremental increase in unit demand. She also pointed to her study in predicting that more than 15% of existing iPhone owners will likely to upgrade to new models when they're announced.

"Putting all the pieces together, our base case assumes 9.9 million unit shipments in [the third quarter] and 24.8 million for the full year ’09 vs. consensus of approximately 18-20 million units," Huberty wrote. "For [2010], our base case assumes 36.2 million units which we believe is materially higher than market expectations."

Assuming her model proves accurate, the analyst believes sales of the handsets will contribute roughly 50% of Apple's per-share earnings in calendar year 2010, up from 30 percent last year, helping the company grab 3% of the worldwide handset market and 17% of the smartphone market, up from 1% and 10% respectively in 2008.

"The core of our stock call is that the iPhone’s success and higher margins will begin to mute the fundamental margin and growth risks in Apple’s core Mac/iPod businesses," she told clients. For calendar year 2010, Huberty now estimates Apple's GAAP per-share earnings to come in at $7.50, up from $5.52, while non-GAAP earnings surge to $9.00 from $5.52.

"We think Apple shares are fundamentally undervalued relative to our revised earnings and free cash flow expectations in 2009/2010," she wrote. "With an attractive valuation, $29 billion of cash, no debt and product cycle [per-share earnings] growth over the next three years, we would be buyers of Apple today and incrementally on any near term weakness."

[leo_pt]

Entrei hoje a 135$.

Acham que o suporte (132 $ +-) já foi testado e vai suste-la? O volume parece bom assim como RSI e MACD... O sentimento do mercado parece ser positivo.

A meu ver stop na zona doa 125$, que vos parece?!

Primeiro investimento por terras do uncle sam

[atomez]

Depois de um par de semanas a ganhar fôlego, a Maçã voltou ao ritmo de subida dos últimos meses.

Estava à espera de uma retracção para reentrar, e foi hoje ao início da sessão.

Acredito que o ritmo se subida se vai manter pelo menos até à conferência WWDC09 (Apple Worldwide Developers Conference) de 8 a 12 de Junho em SF. Devem ser apresentados, ou pelo menos anunciados, novos modelos do iPhone e software.

Ah, só mais uma coisita, o Steve Jobs deve regressar ao activo depois das férias medicinais

I'm in (again) @133.

[Valkyrie]

12% em 5 semanas não é espectacular, mas nos tempos que correm não é nada mau.

Eu diria excelente, nos tempos que correm !

Belo acompanhamento. Thanks for sharing your work

[atomez]

Hoje: LTA confirmadamente quebrada, stop activado, fecho de posição.

Graphicus dixit.

12% em 5 semanas não é espectacular, mas nos tempos que correm não é nada mau.

[atomez]

Enquanto que quase todo o mundo despede pessoal, a Apple recruta:

Apple Builds Its Own Team to Design Chips

Apple Inc. is building a significant capability to design its own computer chips, a strategy shift that the company hopes will create exclusive features for its gadgets and shield Apple's work from rivals.

The Silicon Valley trend-setter has been hiring people from many different segments of the semiconductor industry, including engineers to create multifunction chips that are used in cellphones to run software and carry out other chores.

Apple could use the internally developed chips to sharply reduce the power consumption of its hit iPhone and iPod touch devices, and possibly add graphics circuitry to help its hardware play realistic game software and high-definition videos, people familiar with its plans say.

In one sign of the new focus, Apple recently hired Raja Koduri, who was formerly the chief technology officer of the graphics products group at chip maker Advanced Micro Devices Inc. Mr. Koduri started at Apple this week, following in the footsteps of Bob Drebin, who had held the same title at AMD and is also now working for Apple. Online job postings from Apple describe dozens of chip-related positions it is trying to fill, some with partial descriptions like "testing the functional correctness of Apple developed silicon."

Besides a desire to beat rivals to market with new features, Apple's shift is also an effort to share fewer details about its technology plans with external chip suppliers, say people familiar with the moves.

An Apple spokesman declined to comment.

The new effort faces plenty of hurdles, and people familiar with Apple's plans don't expect internally designed chips to emerge until next year at the earliest. Still, Apple's aggressive hiring is another sign of how the company's recent success has allowed it to expand while other tech giants have trimmed their work forces in the recession.

Apple's strategy also marks a break from a long-term trend among most big electronics companies to outsource the development of chips and other components to external suppliers.

[atomez]

Do ponto de vista de um investidor a AAPL é preferível à MSFT porque esta última já não tem grande margem para crescer, nos mercados em que é dominante já não tem mais espaço para crescer e nos outros não consegue entrar em força.

A Maçã pelo contrário está em plena expansão para novos mercados. Mais ainda, está a CRIAR novos mercados em que a concorrência ainda nem existe!

New Gear from Apple and Verizon Wireless?

The companies are in talks to develop two iPhone-like handhelds that could be unveiled as soon as this year.

Verizon Wireless is warming to the idea of an Apple (AAPL) partnership. Verizon Wireless is in talks with Apple to distribute two new iPhone-like devices, BusinessWeek has learned. Apple has created prototypes of the devices, and discussions reaching back a half-year have involved Apple CEO Steve Jobs, according to two people familiar with the matter.

One device is a smaller, less expensive calling device described by a person who has seen it as an "iPhone lite." The other is a media pad that would let users listen to music, view photos, and watch high-definition videos, the person says. It would place calls over a Wi-Fi connection. One of these devices may be introduced as early as this summer, one person says.

Until now, AT&T (T) has been the only carrier of Apple's iPhone in the U.S., adding more than 7 million subscribers as a result of the arrangement; the company has said it's in talks with Apple to extend the partnership, due to end as soon as next year. An agreement to distribute Apple communication devices via Verizon Wireless may cost AT&T some of the business it has gained as the sole Apple carrier. Even if Verizon Wireless and Apple fail to strike a deal, talks between them increase pressure on AT&T to accept partnership terms favorable to Apple.

SMALLER MEDIA PAD
The new Apple devices under development, if introduced, hold the potential to shake up the tech industry. The media pad is smaller than an Amazon (AMZN) Kindle electronic reader, but its touchscreen is bigger than the Kindle's, says the person who has seen it. Carriers such as Verizon and AT&T are keen on striking deals to supply wireless Internet access to these new small computing devices, such as netbooks, which represent revenue growth opportunities. Phone carriers also fear being cut out of their core markets for supplying land-line and wireless voice services.

"The media pad category might go to Verizon," said the person who has seen the device. "We are talking about a device where people will say, 'Damn, why didn't we do this?' Apple is probably going to define the damn category."

The new iPhone-like device is slightly thinner and smaller than the existing iPhone, people say. The reason the device is much cheaper than existing iPhones is that it relies on a so-called system on a chip, which incorporates many types of chips and drives down the cost of silicon in such devices, says one source familiar with the design. This new chip could also potentially be used in the media pad. "It will have a much lower cost that will blow away the margins on the BlackBerry and the iPhone," the person says.

O mercado parece concordar.

Agora está a atacar os 126 para tentar fechar o gap de há meses. A LTA está bem definida, a não ser que seja quebrada em baixa nos próximos dias, é deixar correr os ganhos

[atomez]

Como se previa...

Apple Beats Expectations

Computer and iPhone maker reports results for first quarter without Steve Jobs.

BURLINGAME, Calif. -- Despite slowing sales of Macintosh computers, Apple reported sales and earnings for its most recent quarter that blasted past expectations Wednesday sending Apple shares up 2.48% in after-hours trading.

The news comes as Apple ( AAPL - news - people ) Chief Executive Steve Jobs remains on medical leave and rumors about his medical condition abound.

While Jobs' future remains uncertain, Apple is in robust health despite a recession that has crushed demand for computers worldwide.

Apple reported net income rose 15.2% to $1.21 billion, or $1.33 per share on revenues of $8.16 billion, during the quarter ending in March, compared with net income of $1 billion, or $1.16 per share, on revenues of $7.5 billion during the corresponding quarter a year ago.

Those figures beat consensus estimate of net income of $982.3 million, or $1.09 per share, on revenues of $7.9 billion, reported by Thomson Reuters.

Gross margin was 36.4%, up from 32.9 % in the year-ago quarter.

Those figures, however, do not include results related to Apple's booming iPhone business. Factoring those in, Apple reported earnings of $1.66 billion on revenues of $9.06 billion.

Apple shares rose $3.01 to 124.52 in after-hours trading Wednesday.

The worldwide recession did take a toll on sales of Macintosh computers, however. Unit sales fell 3% from the year-ago quarter.

Apple also sold 11.01 million iPods, up 3% from the year-ago quarter, and 3.79 million iPhones, up 123%.

Apple, which typically offers conservative guidance, said it expects earnings per share of between 95 cents and $1 on sales of between $7.7 and $7.9 billlion for its current quarter.

[atomez]

Os 120 estão a aguentar-se como novo suporte.

Mas stop logo abaixo por causa das moscas ...

[atomez]

Quebra confirmada dos $120 com volumes em crescendo.

Aponto para subida até aos $180 (+ 50%) pelo menos até Junho, altura do lançamento de novos produtos.

Disclaimer: Estou longo em AAPL desde 3/4/2009 @ 114.50


How high can Apple go?

[Silveira]

A acção deu sinal de alta no curto/médio prazo activando um duplo fundo criado durante Novembro e Janeiro, formou um canal ascendente de curto prazo e encontrasse a testar o agora suporte anterior resistência horizontal ($116 +-). Se esse suporte não for violado em baixa esta poderá ser uma boa zona para a acção. Com a próxima resistência horizontal acima dos $145 e o suporte na zona de negociação penso que mesmo a este nível, respeitando para quem gosta da acção e tendo o suporte actual como zona de STOP, é de acompanhar.

Cumprimentos,

Silveira

[luis.live]

já agora, para os seguidores da apple

http://broadcast.ino.com/education/aapl_200904/

[MACACOS]

hoje teve um fraco volume, no meu ver ainda não é a altura ideal para entrar.podiam por um grafico e comentar, obrigado.

[Blasterman]

sim. aconteceu-me comigo quando coloquei a minha mensagem acerca da resistencia 120. alias, foram precisos varios dias ate a mensagem aparecer. mas so me aconteceu neste topico lol.

enfim, o forum nao gosta de fruta (ou talvez so de maçãs)

[atomez]

há aqui algo estranho no forum

à primeira não apareceu o novo post e tive de clicar outra vez, e depois apareceu repetido...

era melhor apagarem um deles, s.f.f.

[atomez]

boas na tua opnião a partir dos 111 a apple entra bull, qual sera a proxima resistencia?os 130?

Historicamente verifica-se ali uma possível resistência é nos 120 mas que nunca foi testada, é um suporte desde há 2 anos.

Se passar os 120 tem caminho aberto até 150 ou mais.

Hoje abriu em baixa mas está a recuperar contra a tendência de queda do mercado. É bom sinal.

Um rumor curioso que começou a correr é que após o fracasso da tentativa da IBM, a Apple poderia comprar a SUN (JAVA). Isso faz muito sentido. São empresas com uma cultura muito semelhante, até são vizinhas no Silicon Valley. Os produtos que têm não se sobrepõem, antes se complementam e podiam ser a entrada com mais força da Apple no mercado empresarial. E têm cash de sobra para isso. A ver.

Entretanto:

Barclays raises its Apple target 26%

Anticipating a new family of iPhones in June and a new ultraportable later in the year, Barclays Capital’s Ben Reitzes has raised his price target for Apple (AAPL) shares to $143 from $113 — a 26% increase — and upped his earnings estimates across the board.



Reitzes has also changed the way he calculates Apple’s price targets, which, if it catches on, could make a significant difference in the Street’s view of the company.

With Apple scheduled to release its fiscal second-quarter earnings report on April 22, many high-tech analysts will be taking a fresh look at the company over the next two weeks, and Reitzes is one of the first out of the block.

The main change in Reitzes’ near-term numbers is a new, more bullish view of iPhone sales. Based on research that suggests they held up better this quarter than he thought they would, he’s upped his estimate of Q2 unit shipments to 2.8 million (from 2.2 million). He’s also upped his Q3 estimate to 4.3 million units (from 2.1 million) anticipating the release of new iPhones in June.

For this year and next, he’s expecting …

* 2009 iPhone sales of 17.4 million units (was 13.3 million)
* 2010 iPhone sales of 22 million units (was 19 million)

Reitzes’ description of the new iPhones is in line with what the rumor sites have been reporting, including an upgraded camera, new software, better email and security. He’s particularly excited about the possibility of a second camera in the front of the phone (for video chatting) and video recording features that could rival Pure Digital’s popular “Flip” product line. He also expects an iPhone deal for mainland China — probably with China Unicom — no later than June.

Reitzes has less to say about the ultraportable he thinks Apple will release in the second half of 2009, except that he believes the company will address the growing netbook market “in its own differentiated way” — perhaps with a tablet-like computer/iPod optimized for media, gaming and special functions like mobile iChat.

But perhaps the most significant thing about Reitzes’ report is the new way he is calculating Apple’s future earnings.

Most analysts are still using GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) formulas that ignore the money flooding into Apple’s coffers from iPhone subscription accounting. (See Apple’s growing cash hoard.)

But that share of Apple’s earnings, as Steve Jobs put it last year, is getting too big to ignore. So from now on, Reitzes will be calculating his price targets based on so-called non-GAAP numbers that include this revenue stream. He’s reached his new $143-per-share target by applying a 15X multiple to a “pro forma” non-GAAP estimated EPS of $7.88 for fiscal 2010.

It will be interesting to see over the next two weeks if other Apple analysts follow his lead.

Embora não confie nada nestes anúncios de targets, ainda por cima do Barclays, as razões apontadas fazem sentido.

Em especial a parte final sobre o método de avaliação não-GAAP que se passar a ser usado pelos analistas em geral melhora muito a posição da Apple porque uma boa parte do revenue passa a ser contabilizada totalmente no momento da venda de cada iPhone e não ao longo de 2 anos como a Apple apresenta de acordo com as normas GAAP.

[atomez]

boas na tua opnião a partir dos 111 a apple entra bull, qual sera a proxima resistencia?os 130?

Historicamente verifica-se ali uma possível resistência é nos 120 mas que nunca foi testada, é um suporte desde há 2 anos.

Se passar os 120 tem caminho aberto até 150 ou mais.

Hoje abriu em baixa mas está a recuperar contra a tendência de queda do mercado. É bom sinal.

Um rumor curioso que começou a correr é que após o fracasso da tentativa da IBM, a Apple poderia comprar a SUN (JAVA). Isso faz muito sentido. São empresas com uma cultura muito semelhante, até são vizinhas no Silicon Valley. Os produtos que têm não se sobrepõem, antes se complementam e podiam ser a entrada com mais força da Apple no mercado empresarial. E têm cash de sobra para isso. A ver.

Entretanto:

Barclays raises its Apple target 26%

Anticipating a new family of iPhones in June and a new ultraportable later in the year, Barclays Capital’s Ben Reitzes has raised his price target for Apple (AAPL) shares to $143 from $113 — a 26% increase — and upped his earnings estimates across the board.



Reitzes has also changed the way he calculates Apple’s price targets, which, if it catches on, could make a significant difference in the Street’s view of the company.

With Apple scheduled to release its fiscal second-quarter earnings report on April 22, many high-tech analysts will be taking a fresh look at the company over the next two weeks, and Reitzes is one of the first out of the block.

The main change in Reitzes’ near-term numbers is a new, more bullish view of iPhone sales. Based on research that suggests they held up better this quarter than he thought they would, he’s upped his estimate of Q2 unit shipments to 2.8 million (from 2.2 million). He’s also upped his Q3 estimate to 4.3 million units (from 2.1 million) anticipating the release of new iPhones in June.

For this year and next, he’s expecting …

* 2009 iPhone sales of 17.4 million units (was 13.3 million)
* 2010 iPhone sales of 22 million units (was 19 million)

Reitzes’ description of the new iPhones is in line with what the rumor sites have been reporting, including an upgraded camera, new software, better email and security. He’s particularly excited about the possibility of a second camera in the front of the phone (for video chatting) and video recording features that could rival Pure Digital’s popular “Flip” product line. He also expects an iPhone deal for mainland China — probably with China Unicom — no later than June.

Reitzes has less to say about the ultraportable he thinks Apple will release in the second half of 2009, except that he believes the company will address the growing netbook market “in its own differentiated way” — perhaps with a tablet-like computer/iPod optimized for media, gaming and special functions like mobile iChat.

But perhaps the most significant thing about Reitzes’ report is the new way he is calculating Apple’s future earnings.

Most analysts are still using GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) formulas that ignore the money flooding into Apple’s coffers from iPhone subscription accounting. (See Apple’s growing cash hoard.)

But that share of Apple’s earnings, as Steve Jobs put it last year, is getting too big to ignore. So from now on, Reitzes will be calculating his price targets based on so-called non-GAAP numbers that include this revenue stream. He’s reached his new $143-per-share target by applying a 15X multiple to a “pro forma” non-GAAP estimated EPS of $7.88 for fiscal 2010.

It will be interesting to see over the next two weeks if other Apple analysts follow his lead.

Embora não confie nada nestes anúncios de targets, ainda por cima do Barclays, as razões apontadas fazem sentido.

Em especial a parte final sobre o método de avaliação não-GAAP que se passar a ser usado pelos analistas em geral melhora muito a posição da Apple porque uma boa parte do revenue passa a ser contabilizada totalmente no momento da venda de cada iPhone e não ao longo de 2 anos como a Apple apresenta de acordo com as normas GAAP.

[Blasterman]

tive a ver o grafico da Apple e pareceu-me ter encontrado uma resistencia relativamente sólida na casa dos 120 dolares.
alguem ma consegue confirmar? Ainda sou um pouco verdinho no que concerne a análise técnica.

utilizei o grafico apple 2 anos.

se essa resistencia se verificar, uma quebra poderá originar um movimento de compra forte.

[Blasterman]

tive a ver o grafico da Apple e pareceu-me ter encontrado uma resistencia relativamente sólida na casa dos 120 dolares.
alguem ma consegue confirmar? Ainda sou um pouco verdinho no que concerne a análise técnica.

utilizei o grafico apple 2 anos.

se essa resistencia se verificar, uma quebra poderá originar um movimento de compra forte.

[MACACOS]

boas na tua opnião a partir dos 111 a apple entra bull, qual sera a proxima resistencia?os 130?
obrigado

[atomez]

Hoje com a abertura em alta da AAPL com quase tudo a cair, considerei que a quebra dos 110 está confirmada.

Entrei a 114.50

[atomez]

a quanto andam os iphones atomez? estou a pensar adquirir um PDA nomeadamente um HTC ... no entanto tmb ponho em cima da mesa a hipotese iPhone.

Vodafone / Optimus

A versão 3 do software vai estar disponível lá para Julho (pode-se fazer upgrade aos actuais) e também um ou vários novos iphones.

[salvadorveiga]

AAPL tem vindo a acompanhar o mercado, como tem sido hábito nos últimos 6 meses.

Tem andado ali entre os 78 e 110 e não dá sinais de sair disso.

Só se quebrar os 110 em alta forte é que fica interessante, mas não me parece porque acho que o mercado vai andar de lado por muito tempo.

Talvez seja é uma oportunidade para um short de curto prazo.

Disclaimer: Devo dizer que agora passei a usar um MacBook com o OSX e Windows 7 em dual boot e mesmo como máquina Windows é do melhor que há.

Também estou a testar a versão beta do iPhone 3.0 e agora já faz tudo o que o pessoal se queixava que não fazia (copy & paste, etc.)

E agora até faz uns gráficos bem giros!

a quanto andam os iphones atomez? estou a pensar adquirir um PDA nomeadamente um HTC ... no entanto tmb ponho em cima da mesa a hipotese iPhone.

[atomez]

AAPL tem vindo a acompanhar o mercado, como tem sido hábito nos últimos 6 meses.

Tem andado ali entre os 78 e 110 e não dá sinais de sair disso.

Só se quebrar os 110 em alta forte é que fica interessante, mas não me parece porque acho que o mercado vai andar de lado por muito tempo.

Talvez seja é uma oportunidade para um short de curto prazo.

Disclaimer: Devo dizer que agora passei a usar um MacBook com o OSX e Windows 7 em dual boot e mesmo como máquina Windows é do melhor que há.

Também estou a testar a versão beta do iPhone 3.0 e agora já faz tudo o que o pessoal se queixava que não fazia (copy & paste, etc.)

E agora até faz uns gráficos bem giros!

[MACACOS]

boa noite.apple não para de subir ultimamente.sera que podem por um grafico da apple e comentar.obrigado