Doug Kass: "20 Takeaways From the Fed's Move"
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Hum!...
20 prontos-a-servir a levar em consideração e a estarem sempre presentes.
Há um que me parece ser muito pertinente:
9. The Fed recognizes (as I do) that interest rates are a blunt instrument in remedying the credit crisis. The Fed will likely respond with a more creative solution sooner rather than later.
Creio que a reacção ontem do Mercado Americano, parafraseou Hannibal Lecker no Silêncio dos Inocentes:
Oh, Agent Starling, do you think you can dissect me with this blunt little tool?
Teremos também, que ver as opiniões dos Média, permabears e permabulls com uma pitada de sal.
Gentlemen, start your engines
20 prontos-a-servir a levar em consideração e a estarem sempre presentes.
Há um que me parece ser muito pertinente:
9. The Fed recognizes (as I do) that interest rates are a blunt instrument in remedying the credit crisis. The Fed will likely respond with a more creative solution sooner rather than later.
Creio que a reacção ontem do Mercado Americano, parafraseou Hannibal Lecker no Silêncio dos Inocentes:
Oh, Agent Starling, do you think you can dissect me with this blunt little tool?
Teremos também, que ver as opiniões dos Média, permabears e permabulls com uma pitada de sal.
Gentlemen, start your engines
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Doug Kass: "20 Takeaways From the Fed's Move"
"20 Takeaways From the Fed's Move"
By Doug Kass
RealMoney Silver Contributor
12/12/2007 8:01 AM EST
"Twenty points to take away from the Fed's rate decision Tuesday afternoon.
1. Strap yourselves in for the ride of your life with Mr. Market.
2. Keep investment and trading positions small in order to take advantage of opportunities in a market that has no memory from day to day.
3. Too many market participants worship at the altar of price momentum. (Don't blame the Fed for investors' complacency.)
4. Most of the media and most investors who "talk their books" in the media are permabulls. Take their views with a grain of salt.
5. The same applies to permabears. Take their views with a grain of salt also.
6. Ignore eroding fundamentals (e.g., tightening financial conditions as manifested in Libor and the TED spread, signs of weakening capital spending and a looming worldwide recession) at your own financial risk.
7. The Fed does not exist for the purpose of encouraging speculators.
8. The Fed recognizes the real threat of inflation -- that the nominal CPI/PPI rates are increasingly a more representative statistic than the core CPI/PPI rates. (Watch for elevated inflation releases later this week.)
9. The Fed recognizes (as I do) that interest rates are a blunt instrument in remedying the credit crisis. The Fed will likely respond with a more creative solution sooner rather than later.
10. Economic cycles have not been repealed, as the bullish mantra of a Goldilocks economy (another new paradigm predicated on uninterrupted growth and free of inflation) is absurd. The economy is not "the greatest story never told"; it is "the greatest story ever sold."
11. More will come to realize (as I have forecast for some time) that a rebound in housing will not occur until 2010 at the earliest -- and that housing's negative multiplier effect will be profoundly felt in lower domestic growth and profits.
12. Consumer confidence, personal consumption, business spending intentions and housing activity will take a new leg down in the months ahead.
13. Look for a bear market and the disintermediation of hedge funds and in the fund-of-funds community, which will serve to disrupt the equity markets and cause even greater volatility.
14. Additional writedowns will weigh on our financial institutions in early 2008. They are value traps!
15. The credit markets will seize up further, which will lead to the collapse of several monoline insurers that serve the housing industry and a failure of a major publicly owned homebuilder.
16. Citigroup (C - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating), the bank that can't shoot straight, will likely trade back under $30.
17. Sentiment should abruptly shift to the negative, to levels not seen in modern financial history.
18. Private equity deals will slow to a standstill.
19. The U.S. dollar has become cheap relative to other currencies.
20. Cuts in 2008 GDP forecasts and corporate profit estimates are imminent.
(in www.realmoney.com)
By Doug Kass
RealMoney Silver Contributor
12/12/2007 8:01 AM EST
"Twenty points to take away from the Fed's rate decision Tuesday afternoon.
1. Strap yourselves in for the ride of your life with Mr. Market.
2. Keep investment and trading positions small in order to take advantage of opportunities in a market that has no memory from day to day.
3. Too many market participants worship at the altar of price momentum. (Don't blame the Fed for investors' complacency.)
4. Most of the media and most investors who "talk their books" in the media are permabulls. Take their views with a grain of salt.
5. The same applies to permabears. Take their views with a grain of salt also.
6. Ignore eroding fundamentals (e.g., tightening financial conditions as manifested in Libor and the TED spread, signs of weakening capital spending and a looming worldwide recession) at your own financial risk.
7. The Fed does not exist for the purpose of encouraging speculators.
8. The Fed recognizes the real threat of inflation -- that the nominal CPI/PPI rates are increasingly a more representative statistic than the core CPI/PPI rates. (Watch for elevated inflation releases later this week.)
9. The Fed recognizes (as I do) that interest rates are a blunt instrument in remedying the credit crisis. The Fed will likely respond with a more creative solution sooner rather than later.
10. Economic cycles have not been repealed, as the bullish mantra of a Goldilocks economy (another new paradigm predicated on uninterrupted growth and free of inflation) is absurd. The economy is not "the greatest story never told"; it is "the greatest story ever sold."
11. More will come to realize (as I have forecast for some time) that a rebound in housing will not occur until 2010 at the earliest -- and that housing's negative multiplier effect will be profoundly felt in lower domestic growth and profits.
12. Consumer confidence, personal consumption, business spending intentions and housing activity will take a new leg down in the months ahead.
13. Look for a bear market and the disintermediation of hedge funds and in the fund-of-funds community, which will serve to disrupt the equity markets and cause even greater volatility.
14. Additional writedowns will weigh on our financial institutions in early 2008. They are value traps!
15. The credit markets will seize up further, which will lead to the collapse of several monoline insurers that serve the housing industry and a failure of a major publicly owned homebuilder.
16. Citigroup (C - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating), the bank that can't shoot straight, will likely trade back under $30.
17. Sentiment should abruptly shift to the negative, to levels not seen in modern financial history.
18. Private equity deals will slow to a standstill.
19. The U.S. dollar has become cheap relative to other currencies.
20. Cuts in 2008 GDP forecasts and corporate profit estimates are imminent.
(in www.realmoney.com)
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