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S&P 500 IDX DEZ7 USD 1,482.80 -0.28% 06-12 14:08

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Não me parece que os futuros estejam muito verdes brokas.. É verdade que de manhã estavam bem mais animados... só que foram perdendo força ao longo do dia.. Acho natural uma correcção hoje visto que ontem os mercados subiram..

Bons negócios

[scpnuno]

La está a nossa bolsa a "Burrar" a pintura da Europa, estamos a ficar vermelhos, os Futuros dos EUA estão verdes e nos a cair, realmente...!!!!

(não mudes de oculos, não....)

[Broker_Invest]

La está a nossa bolsa a "Burrar" a pintura da Europa, estamos a ficar vermelhos, os Futuros dos EUA estão verdes e nos a cair, realmente...!!!!

[RJCP]

Realmente as noticias foram boas, o problema é que são tão boas que o Fed vai ter de pensar muito bem nos cortes que possivelmente ia fazer.

Um corte de 25 pontos já era esperado e absorvido pelos mercados. Algumas das recentes subidas podem ser devido aos possiveis 50 pontos agora que muitos agora indicavam como certos e necessarios. Agora com estas noticias o discurso pode voltar a ser o da inflação e nesse caso não acho que as bolsas mundiais continuem a subir. No maximo devemos ter mais do mesmo, o sobe e desce dos movimentos laterais.

[Broker_Invest]

Estas noticias são bastantes favoráveis e Positivas para as bolsas mundiais, dá alguma tranqualidade aos mercados.


Productividade nos EUA cresce ao ritmo mais elevado dos últimos quatro anos no terceiro trimestre
A productividade dos trabalhadores norte-americanos cresceu a uma taxa anual de 6,3% no terceiro trimestre deste ano, contra os 2,2% verificados no trimeste anterior, registando o ritmo mais elevado dos últimos quatro anos, tendo ficado acima da progressão de 5,9% antecipada pelos analistas.

Mafalda Aguilar

Segundo os dados do Departamento do Trabalho norte-americano, citados pelo site 'Invertia', há um mês atrás, no seu cálculo preliminar, o Governo dos EUA tinha estimado que o ritmo do aumento da produtividade situar-se-ia em 4,9% entre Julho e Setembro deste ano face ao mesmo período de 2006.

Graças a este aumento da produtividade, o vencimento horário, um indicador importante para avaliar as pressões inflacionistas relacionadas com os salários, baixou cerca de 2% no terceiro trimestre relativamente ao período homólogo do ano passado, a maior queda desde 2003.


e Mais esta.

Número de postos de trabalho nos EUA aumentam três vezes mais do que o esperado
As empresas norte-americanas disponibilizaram 189 mil novos empregos em Novembro, contra os 119 mil estimados no mês de Outubro, aumentando este indicador três vezes mais do que o estimado pelos analistas, que aguardavam uma variação positiva de 50 mil postos de trabalho.

Susana Teodoro

Os dados foram hoje divulgados pelo Departamento do Trabalho dos Estados Unidos, que informa ainda de um crescimento mensal médio de 93 mil empregos.

Os número do mês de Outubro foram revistos de 106 mil empregos para 119 mil.

Segundo um analista da Wachovia, "alguns negócios têm dificuldade em encontrar trabalhadores qualificados e o mercdo de trabalaho ainda é muito rígido".

Fonte DE.

[acintra]

Investors look ready to wade back into the market; crude prices in focus after OPEC leaves production unchanged.

December 5 2007: 4:41 AM EST


LONDON (CNNMoney.com) -- U.S. stocks looked set to rebound Wednesday from a two-session slide, with oil prices in focus after OPEC made no changes to production.

At 4:26 a.m. ET, Nasdaq and S&P futures were higher, pointing to a strong start for stocks.

The outcome of a meeting of OPEC members in Abu Dhabi could weigh on sentiment. Members of the oil cartel decided to keep output unchanged, Dow Jones reported.

Oil prices have tumbled recently on hopes for a production boost. Now investors are likely to turn their attention to a report on fuel stockpiles in the U.S., due at 10:30 a.m. ET.

On the economic front, a slew of reports are due, including readings on productivity, factory orders and ISM services. The reports come ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting next week. Policymakers are widely expected to lower rates at that meeting, although traders are divided over how big the cut will be.

Stocks in the news included Fannie Mae (Charts), which slashed its dividend after the market close Tuesday and said it would offer $7 billion of stock after getting slammed by the mortgage crisis.

In global trade, major markets in Asia finished the session higher. European stocks rose in early trading.

[Broker_Invest]

Parece que hoje os EUA vão abrir em alta, pelo menos os Futuros estão verdes! as bolsas europeias já estão verdinhas e EUA vão continuar com a festa.

[nunoand99]

(esta conversa vai linda, vai....)

(eu perdi-me ali naquela afirmação do nuno

E tantas vezes nem para a abertura...

ou ele está a falar dos futuros, ou baralhou-me)

NOTA: Ulisses, não fui eu que começei!!!!

???

[scpnuno]

(esta conversa vai linda, vai....)

(eu perdi-me ali naquela afirmação do nuno

E tantas vezes nem para a abertura...

ou ele está a falar dos futuros, ou baralhou-me)

NOTA: Ulisses, não fui eu que começei!!!!

[Pata-Hari]

(esta conversa vai linda, vai....)

[nunoand99]

P.S. Os futuros negativos apenas são relevantes para a abertura. Daí a concluirmos que vai ser um dia negativo nos States, vai uma distância muito grande.

E tantas vezes nem para a abertura...

[scpnuno]

Interessante analogia. Agora já fica mais claro porque há alturas em que me apetece entrar curto em mulheres.

Paulo, se (nota bem este SE) eu não tivesse a ameaça constante da bolinha do Ulisses eu perguntar-te-ia se a tua estrategia acima citada tem resultado

A mim pareçe, sei lá, hummm, contra tendencia??? Ohhh Canis Lapis, queres vir ajudar-me?

Abraços

[PJBM2]

Broker não andas por aqui já há tempo suficiente para perceber que tanto as subidas como as descidas não são para compreender?!

Um abraço

Ora bem, tu costumas perceber para onde elas querem ir, porquê, de que forma, porque estão contentes ou aborrecidas, o que querem de ti ou da vida e porque motivo?

Não, pois não? Bem, tu tentas acompanhá-la(s) e fazê-la(s) feliz, verdade? Para onde ela vai tu vais e prontos!

Os mercados é igual! Não questiones, não queiras saber o porquê nem o para quê - vai na onda...



Abraços
(beijoca pró artista)

Interessante analogia. Agora já fica mais claro porque há alturas em que me apetece entrar curto em mulheres.

[scpnuno]

Broker não andas por aqui já há tempo suficiente para perceber que tanto as subidas como as descidas não são para compreender?!

Um abraço

Pera aí, artista, deixa ver se eu consigo explicar de outra maneira, que tu e o Ulisses estão a gastar as teclas todas com isto...

Broker, és casado? unido de facto? unido sem fato? namoras? enfim, lidas com mulheres com frequencia? vamos supor que sim.

Ora bem, tu costumas perceber para onde elas querem ir, porquê, de que forma, porque estão contentes ou aborrecidas, o que querem de ti ou da vida e porque motivo?

Não, pois não? Bem, tu tentas acompanhá-la(s) e fazê-la(s) feliz, verdade? Para onde ela vai tu vais e prontos!

Os mercados é igual! Não questiones, não queiras saber o porquê nem o para quê - vai na onda...

(ufff, se não sou eu a dar explicações com alguma pedagogia....)


Abraços
(beijoca pró artista)

[artista_]

Bem ao vermos os EUA, negativos = Vermelhos espera-se uma tarde Má, mas isto pode melhorar, é só eles querem, não precebo estas quedas dos Index Americanos.

Broker não andas por aqui já há tempo suficiente para perceber que tanto as subidas como as descidas não são para compreender?!

Um abraço

[acintra]

(Adds JPMorgan downgrade of investment bank earnings, updates prices)

By Jennifer Coogan

NEW YORK, Dec 4 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures dropped on Tuesday, pointing to a lower open on Wall Street, as major financial stocks fell on uncertainty about the outlook for a credit crisis recovery.

The U.S. Treasury official in charge of debt management said on Tuesday that the process of rebuilding confidence in financial markets will be "long and slow." For details, see [ID:nN03451404].

JPMorgan Chase cut its earnings estimates on Goldman Sachs , Lehman Brothers , Merrill Lynch MER.N and Morgan Stanley , citing writedowns and slowdowns in mergers and acquisitions and reduced fees for other services.

Punk Ziegel analyst Richard Bove downgraded Bear Stearns , Goldman Sachs and Lehman to "sell" from "market perform," saying the retrenchment under way will force significant adjustments in the way the businesses are being run. [ID:nWNA7980].

"The financials are still not looking very attractive. It's going to be some time before we see someone eager to move in there," said Peter Kenny, managing director at Knight Equity Markets in Jersey City, New Jersey.

In trading before the open, shares of Bear Stearns were down 1.6 percent at $96.80 and Lehman stock fell 2.2 percent to $60.03. Goldman shares were down 2.1 percent to $222.23.

Stocks fell on Monday, snapping a four-day streak of gains that was fueled by raised expectations for an interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

"We had last week's rally, but now the market has fully priced in a rate cut," said Kenny.

S&P 500 futures were down 5.8 points, below fair value, a mathematical formula that evaluates pricing by taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration on the contract.

Dow Jones industrial average futures fell 46 points, and Nasdaq 100 futures were down 13.25 points. On the upside, shares of Dell rose 2.5 percent to $24.54 after the computer maker said its board has authorized a $10 billion stock repurchase and that it will resume buying back stock this week [ID:nWNAS3686].

Shares of Merck were down 1.4 percent to $57.97 before the open after the blue-chip drug maker gave an earnings forecast for 2008 whose range was mostly below expectations. [ID:nN04479497] (Editing by Kenneth Barry) ((jennifer.coogan@reuters.com; + 1 646-223-6125; Reuters Messaging: jennifer.coogan.reuters.com@reuters.net)) ((Multimedia versions of Reuters Top News are now available for: * 3000 Xtra: visit http://topnews.session.rservices.com * BridgeStation: view story .134 For

[Broker_Invest]

Broker, desculpa estar sempre a "dar-te na cabeça", mas se o Caldeirão sempre teve um papel pedagógico junto dos seus participantes, acho que o deve manter.

Tu dizes que não percebes porque as quedas dos índices americanos. E eu pergunto: Se estivessem a subir, perceberias as subidas?

Um abraço,
Ulisses

P.S. Os futuros negativos apenas são relevantes para a abertura. Daí a concluirmos que vai ser um dia negativo nos States, vai uma distância muito grande.

Ulisses, eu não me importo por dares-me na cabeça é sinal que eu estou dizer algum dispara-te e sem conhecimento em causa, são sempre bem vindas as criticas construtivas.
Eu quando digo "não precebo nada,e porque que isto cai ou sobe, é preceber os fundamentos que estão em causa para estas descidas ou subidas" como digo eu já ando nisto há 3 anos e a fazer 4, e vejo que os mercados estão todos muito volateis, o que eu não estava habituado, porque sempre investi no PSI20 que era um mercado mais conservador, tinha subidas mais moderadas e constantes, agora todas as bolsas parecem o NASDAQ, com uma volatilidade brutal e com uma liquidez fora do normal. é isto que eu me refiro.
Abraço e BN.

[Ulisses Pereira]

Broker, desculpa estar sempre a "dar-te na cabeça", mas se o Caldeirão sempre teve um papel pedagógico junto dos seus participantes, acho que o deve manter.

Tu dizes que não percebes porque as quedas dos índices americanos. E eu pergunto: Se estivessem a subir, perceberias as subidas?

Um abraço,
Ulisses

P.S. Os futuros negativos apenas são relevantes para a abertura. Daí a concluirmos que vai ser um dia negativo nos States, vai uma distância muito grande.

[Jaimek]

A razão fundamental é esta:

Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Global stocks fell after Nokia Oyj said mobile-phone prices will decline, U.S. manufacturing and auto sales weakened, and Morgan Stanley forecast slowing profit growth for U.K. banks.

[acintra]

Esta é outra razão...

Skittish on Wall Street
Stocks set for lower open amid fresh worries about economic outlook, mortgage crisis and Merck warning.
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NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks were poised for a lower open Tuesday as Federal Reserve officials voiced new worries about the economy, drugmaker Merck gave disappointing 2008 guidance, and lawmakers turned their sights on credit card debt as a fresh area of worry.

At 8:11 a.m. ET, Nasdaq and S&P futures were lower, pointing to a weak open for Wall Street, which saw a four-day rally for blue chips end on Monday.

Boston Fed president Eric Rosengren and San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen offered a bleak forecast for the housing sector and economy Monday, renewing jitters on Wall Street. Rosengren said early in the day he was worried foreclosures would worsen, while Yellen warned late in the afternoon about weak economic growth in the fourth quarter.

Economic weakness is likely to lead the central bank to keep cutting interest rates - which is usually a positive for stocks. Last week's rally was fueled by hopes for more Fed rate cuts.

But as the outlook for the economy becomes more dismal, skittish investors could turn away from risky assets like stocks and pile into safe havens such as Treasury bonds.

"Last week we had a Fed chairman who sounded more accommodative to cutting rates. So you celebrate that for a little while until the reality sets in that the fundamentals behind that aren't positive," said Art Hogan, chief market analyst at Jefferies & Co. "Often time it takes a little time to remember that bad news is bad news."

Drugmaker Merck (Charts, Fortune 500), a component of the Dow Jones industrial average, reaffirmed its earlier 2007 earnings per share guidance of $3.08 to $3.14, although that is below the current $3.15 a share consensus forecast of analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call. It also issued its initial guidance for 2008 EPS of between $3.28 to $3.38, which falls short of the First Call estimate of $3.39.

Shares of Merck fell 1.8 percent in premarket trading.

A Senate panel is set to hold a hearing Tuesday about practices in the credit card industry. The chairman of the panel, Sen. Carl Levin, D-Mich., has voiced support for legislation that would limit card issuers' ability to raise customers' interest rates if their credit scores declined. Officials of Discover (Charts), Bank of America (Charts, Fortune 500) and Capital One (Charts, Fortune 500) are due testify at Tuesday's hearing.

On the campaign trail Monday, Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama also proposed restrictions on what he called "predatory" credit card companies, which he said deceive consumers into piling up massive debt they have little hope of repaying. He said soaring credit card debt could match the subprime mortgage market meltdown as a problem for the U.S. economy.

Fortune: Fannie Mae writedown could top $5 billion
Hogan said talk about mounting credit card debt could be a drag on the markets, given the timing relative to the holiday shopping season.

"Everything we do reflects the concerns about the consumers, especially this time of year," he said.

Fannie Mae (Charts) could be the next major financial firm to report big losses due to the mortgage meltdown. The company could see writedowns top $5 billion, according to Fortune.

In other corporate news, online auction site eBay (Charts, Fortune 500) announced a partnership with Yahoo (Charts, Fortune 500) to help it return to Japan, a market it exited in 2002.

No. 1 cell phone maker Nokia (Charts) said Tuesday it expects the global market for mobile devices to grow 10 percent in 2008 to more than 1.2 billion. The company said its share will also increase and raised its target for its operating margin. But markets were disappointed in the forecasts and shares of Nokia slipped 3 percent in early trading in Helsinki.

In global trade, major markets in Asia finished the session mixed, with Japanese stocks ending lower. European stocks fell in midday trading.

Oil prices, which just a week ago appeared poised to cross the $100 a barrel threshold for the first time, continued to slide ahead of Wednesday's meeting of OPEC oil ministers and the weekly report on U.S. fuel stockpiles, also due Wednesday, although prices were well above earlier lows. A barrel of light sweet crude was off 33 cents to $88.98.

[acintra]

Esta é uma das razões...

December 4 2007: 3:49 AM ESTEmail | Print Type Size
Fannie Mae could face more losses
A look at the bonds it holds, and the extent to which Fannie has marked them down so far, indicates that it may see as much as $5 billion more in write downs. Peter Eavis reports.
By Peter Eavis, senior writer


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(Fortune) -- Could Fannie Mae be the next large financial company to announce billions of dollars of market losses on bonds backed by distressed mortgages?

The vast majority of Fannie Mae's mortgages are loans to borrowers with good credit, but over the past five years the government sponsored enterprise became exposed to mortgages that were made to people with poor credit -- subprime mortgages -- and to mortgages that were made with incomplete documentation of borrowers' income, called Alt-A mortgages in industry parlance.

One way that Fannie increased its exposure to subprime and Alt-A mortgages was to buy bonds backed with these types of loans. While these subprime and Alt-A mortgage-backed bonds are only a small proportion of Fannie's overall mortgage holdings, their combined value of $76 billion is almost double Fannie's $40 billion of capital, which is the net worth of a company and the last cushion against losses.

Losses are climbing on these loans as borrowers default, which has caused the market value of bonds backed with such loans to fall sharply. Investors are bidding down the value of mortgage bonds in anticipation that defaults will prevent many of the bondholders from being paid back in full.

Another round of writedowns
Many banks have already taken large writedowns in the third quarter after marking down the value of the subprime and Alt-A-backed bonds they held -- and banks are again expected to post large losses in the fourth quarter after more mark downs.

Because it's impossible to know exactly which Alt-A and subprime bonds Fannie owns, it is difficult to precisely predict losses on them. But if Fannie's bonds are similar to bonds for which price data exists, the company's market losses on these bonds this quarter could exceed $5 billion, which would be 12% of Fannie Mae's capital.

Fannie Mae's rival Freddie Mac last week issued $6 billion of new stock to bolster its capital position. Fannie Mae, (Charts) by contrast, issued only $500 million of fresh stock earlier this month. But if it does have to take substantial losses from writedowns on Alt-A and subprime-mortgage-backed bonds, it may have to come back to market and issue several billion dollars more of stock.

When asked to comment, Fannie Mae spokesman Brian Faith referred to comments made by company officials about the subprime and Alt-A bonds on a Nov. 9 conference call.

On that call, Fannie Mae CFO Stephen Swad said that the bonds had fallen in the fourth quarter, but they were trading, on average, in the "high 90s." Bond prices are often expressed in terms of cents on the dollar, with any price under 100 cents on the dollar representing a discount to the par value of the bond. Therefore, a bond trading in the high 90s has not fallen very far. As a result, Fannie Mae was saying on the call that it hadn't written down the market value of the subprime and Alt-A bonds by much.

This was a signal to investors that Fannie Mae thought it would not be taking large losses on those bonds if they remained at those prices.

But that looks implausible. Here's why.

Fannie Mae's quarterly financial filing for the third quarter said Fannie had $42.2 billion of private-label subprime securities and $33.8 billion of private label Alt-A securities.

Private label is the term Fannie Mae gives to bonds and mortgages bought from private sector banks, as opposed to those issued by government-sponsored entities like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which both operate under advantageous Congressional charters.

Fannie Mae has taken some losses on those securities, but they're relatively small compared with the losses seen at other banks.

Fannie Mae said that in the nine months to Sept. 30, it had taken writedowns of $896 million on its subprime private label securities. That would work out to a 2% reduction in value of those securities.

Fannie Mae booked $285 million of the $896 million as a reduction to earnings, but accounting rules allowed the company to leave the remaining $611 million out of earnings calculations and book them only as a reduction to shareholders' equity.

Bond ratings
One of the reasons that Fannie might have taken what appears to be a small percentage writedown is that these bonds are rated AAA, the highest rating possible. They get that rating because other investors in the bond have agreed to be the first to take a large amount of credit losses from the underlying loans.

But even with that protection, it's possible that the AAA subprime securities are trading at a much steeper discount -- and therefore a lower price -- than the 2% discount that Fannie Mae applied in the third quarter.

A Wall Street bank that trades AAA-rated subprime bonds is currently quoting prices for such bonds of around 88 cents on the dollar, or a 12% discount, for loans made in 2006, and 78 cents on the dollar, or a 22% discount, for loans made in 2007.

Fannie Mae's subprime exposure is likely to be concentrated in the 2006 and 2007 bonds, because earlier years' AAA bonds would have been largely paid down by now.

It's not disclosed how Fannie Mae's subprime bonds are split up between 2006 and 2007 bonds. A conservative estimate would be to assume they were all trading at 88 cents on the dollar, or a 12% discount.

Since Fannie Mae has already marked these bonds down by 2% in the third quarter, this exercise would mean marking them down by a further 10%. In turn, that would mean further writedowns potentially equivalent to 10% of $42.2 billion, which is $4.2 billion.

A similar exercised can be applied to the $33.8 billion of Alt-A securities. Many of these so-called "liar loans" are likely to go bad because borrowers used the low-disclosure requirements to cover up that they couldn't actually afford the loan payments.

Investors don't think much of them. For instance, as part of its rescue this week of online brokerage ETrade (Charts), hedge fund Citadel appeared to pay roughly 60 cents on the dollar for ETrade's Alt-A loans. That was a special deal in which Citadel was able to get seemingly attractive terms, but it shows the skepticism about the credit quality of Alt-A loans.

Alt-A loans are typically thought to be of better credit quality than subprime. If that principle is applied and the $33.8 billion of securities are marked down by another 5%, that could amount to another $1.7 billion hit.

What are the flaws of this approach to estimating Fannie's exposure? One may be that the private-label securities that Fannie Mae holds have a higher level of credit protection than the bonds that dealers are quoting prices for. But that doesn't seem to be the case.

Fannie Mae says that its credit protection on the bonds is, on average, equivalent to 32% of the bond. That means that other holders of the bond are first in line to bear bad loan losses -- up to 32% of the value of the bond. Any losses above 32% would be borne by the AAA-bond holder, in this case Fannie Mae.

However, this 32% level of credit protection appears to be in line with the bonds that make up the ABX Indexes that track AAA-rated subprime-mortgage-backed bonds for 2006 and 2007.

So, it doesn't appear to be the case that Fannie has more protection on its bonds. If that's the case, Fannie Mae may have to mark down its securities by a large amount in the fourth quarter.

[Broker_Invest]

Bem ao vermos os EUA, negativos = Vermelhos espera-se uma tarde Má, mas isto pode melhorar, é só eles querem, não precebo estas quedas dos Index Americanos.