Cramer: "Tough Setup"
1 Mensagem
|Página 1 de 1
Cramer: "Tough Setup"
"Tough Setup"
By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
11/19/2007 9:35 AM EST
"Look, it's all bad. The recession stories right on the heels of the Fed saying it must be vigilant about inflation. The ominous Citigroup (C - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) sell. Little things like the decline in ETFs for municipal bonds and the skyrocketing yields on things as simple as banking preferreds.
The setup is actually getting clear: an accidental recession brought on either by Fed intransigence -- no "Bernanke put" -- or a desire to cleanse the system, wrench out inflation once and for all, make housing affordable and bet that a year from now things are better.
No amount of declining retail or transport or banking seems to have any impact at all on the people who run the Fed. They care about employment and inflation, and both are high enough to justify a tightening as much as a loosening.
All pretty ludicrous if you ask me, but it is more than certain that I am not being asked for any view and have become a strange poster child for the deflationary recession camp, albeit justifier of all things and people rich. It is an odd moment for the economy -- and for me -- for certain.
What to do? Once again, I find myself drawn to all things drug and health care and export with a smattering of worldwide development plays for some upside: oil and minerals, the latter headed down today, as always, until a takeover or a sense that worldwide demand -- not even Chinese demand -- is slowing enough to prevent critical shortages in important minerals.
Why hang in? Because just like in 1998, these Fed officers will be calling emergency meetings soon about what to do about E*Trade (ETFC - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating), which has the single worst balance sheet out there of the public companies I follow, with a percentage of 2005-2007 home-equity loans that would wreck Fort Knox, or a Countrywide (CFC - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) or a Washington Mutual (WM - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) -- all of which seems as plain as the nose on my face.
For that moment, you must have something on the sheets and stay the course, a truly ugly and precarious way to make money.
Unless you can be so nimble as to buy the oversold dips and sell the short-squeeze spikes. Something I could do in 1990 and perhaps you can do now.
At the time of publication, Cramer was long Citigroup. "
By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
11/19/2007 9:35 AM EST
"Look, it's all bad. The recession stories right on the heels of the Fed saying it must be vigilant about inflation. The ominous Citigroup (C - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) sell. Little things like the decline in ETFs for municipal bonds and the skyrocketing yields on things as simple as banking preferreds.
The setup is actually getting clear: an accidental recession brought on either by Fed intransigence -- no "Bernanke put" -- or a desire to cleanse the system, wrench out inflation once and for all, make housing affordable and bet that a year from now things are better.
No amount of declining retail or transport or banking seems to have any impact at all on the people who run the Fed. They care about employment and inflation, and both are high enough to justify a tightening as much as a loosening.
All pretty ludicrous if you ask me, but it is more than certain that I am not being asked for any view and have become a strange poster child for the deflationary recession camp, albeit justifier of all things and people rich. It is an odd moment for the economy -- and for me -- for certain.
What to do? Once again, I find myself drawn to all things drug and health care and export with a smattering of worldwide development plays for some upside: oil and minerals, the latter headed down today, as always, until a takeover or a sense that worldwide demand -- not even Chinese demand -- is slowing enough to prevent critical shortages in important minerals.
Why hang in? Because just like in 1998, these Fed officers will be calling emergency meetings soon about what to do about E*Trade (ETFC - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating), which has the single worst balance sheet out there of the public companies I follow, with a percentage of 2005-2007 home-equity loans that would wreck Fort Knox, or a Countrywide (CFC - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) or a Washington Mutual (WM - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) -- all of which seems as plain as the nose on my face.
For that moment, you must have something on the sheets and stay the course, a truly ugly and precarious way to make money.
Unless you can be so nimble as to buy the oversold dips and sell the short-squeeze spikes. Something I could do in 1990 and perhaps you can do now.
At the time of publication, Cramer was long Citigroup. "
-
- Administrador Fórum
- Mensagens: 31014
- Registado: 29/10/2002 4:04
- Localização: Aveiro
1 Mensagem
|Página 1 de 1