apan's Economic Growth Rebounds as Exports Climb
1 Mensagem
|Página 1 de 1
apan's Economic Growth Rebounds as Exports Climb
Nov. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's economy rebounded in the third quarter as exports rose and consumer spending unexpectedly climbed.
The world's second-largest economy expanded an annualized 2.6 percent in the three months ended Sept. 30 from a revised 1.6 percent contraction in the previous period, the Cabinet Office said in Tokyo today. The median forecast of 41 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 1.8 percent increase.
The Bank of Japan is expected to keep interest rates on hold later today amid concern the economy will slow. Investment in housing had the biggest drop in a decade in the quarter after a regulation change, threatening growth already at risk from a slowdown in the U.S., its largest market.
``The economy shuddered a bit in the second quarter but didn't stop in the third. That's good news,'' said Graham Davis, director of the Economist Intelligence Unit in Tokyo. ``There's still reasonable strength in Japan's economy.''
The yen traded at 109.72 against the dollar at 9.09 a.m. in Tokyo from 109.63 before the report was released. From the previous quarter the economy grew 0.6 percent, more than the 0.5 percent forecast by economists.
Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui and his policy board will conclude a two-day rate-setting meeting today in Tokyo. None of the 37 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expect the bank to raise its key rate from 0.5 percent, the lowest among the 30 members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
`Very Keen'
``The Bank of Japan's been very keen to put these rates up -- it's in their DNA,'' Davis said. ``But the economy is not really strong enough to allow them to do so.''
Consumer spending rose 0.3 percent from the second quarter. Economists expected spending by consumers, which accounts for more than half of the economy, to be unchanged.
Net exports, or the difference between exports and imports, contributed 0.4 percentage point to growth, less than the 0.5 percentage point expected by economists. Exports rose 2.9 percent and imports gained 0.5 percent from the second quarter. Both were lower than analysts' predictions.
Housing investment was the largest drag on growth, falling an annualized 27.8 percent in the third quarter, after the government enforced stricter rules for obtaining building permits in response to a 2005 scandal involving faked earthquake-engineering data. From the previous quarter it dropped 7.8 percent.
Central Bank Forecast
The Bank of Japan cut its economic growth forecast for the year ending March 31 to 1.8 percent from 2.1 percent, in part because of the drop in construction.
``The housing decline is going to be a drag on growth, so a pickup in the economy is going to be delayed until next year,'' said Takehiro Sato, chief Japan economist at Morgan Stanley in Tokyo. ``If the problem continues, it could lead to bankruptcies in the construction sector.''
The Topix Construction Index of 103 companies has dropped more than a fifth in the past three months, making it the worst performer of the 33 groups in the broader Topix index, which slumped 11 percent in the same period. The fallout has spread to other industries as well.
Toto Ltd., a bathroom fixtures company, cut its full-year profit forecast by 25 percent last month after the rule change caused a drop in demand from customers furbishing new homes. Its shares have fallen 19 percent since August, when reports first showed housing starts plummeting.
Housing Starts
``It usually takes about three months for housing starts to affect us so we're starting to see the impact this quarter,'' said Kenji Matsumoto, spokesman at the Fukuoka-based company. ``The decline in starts has been so large that we had to revise our full-year forecasts.''
The economy may not be able to count on export growth in coming months as the U.S. economy deteriorates and Japan's currency strengthens.
The yen has risen more than 5 percent against the dollar this month. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said last week that that growth in the world's largest economy will ``slow noticeably'' this quarter.
The U.S. economy is expected to expand at a 1.5 percent annual pace in the fourth quarter, less than half that of the third quarter, economists surveyed this month said.
To contact the reporter on this story: Lily Nonomiya in Tokyo at lnonomiya@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: November 12, 2007 19:26 EST
The world's second-largest economy expanded an annualized 2.6 percent in the three months ended Sept. 30 from a revised 1.6 percent contraction in the previous period, the Cabinet Office said in Tokyo today. The median forecast of 41 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 1.8 percent increase.
The Bank of Japan is expected to keep interest rates on hold later today amid concern the economy will slow. Investment in housing had the biggest drop in a decade in the quarter after a regulation change, threatening growth already at risk from a slowdown in the U.S., its largest market.
``The economy shuddered a bit in the second quarter but didn't stop in the third. That's good news,'' said Graham Davis, director of the Economist Intelligence Unit in Tokyo. ``There's still reasonable strength in Japan's economy.''
The yen traded at 109.72 against the dollar at 9.09 a.m. in Tokyo from 109.63 before the report was released. From the previous quarter the economy grew 0.6 percent, more than the 0.5 percent forecast by economists.
Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui and his policy board will conclude a two-day rate-setting meeting today in Tokyo. None of the 37 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expect the bank to raise its key rate from 0.5 percent, the lowest among the 30 members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
`Very Keen'
``The Bank of Japan's been very keen to put these rates up -- it's in their DNA,'' Davis said. ``But the economy is not really strong enough to allow them to do so.''
Consumer spending rose 0.3 percent from the second quarter. Economists expected spending by consumers, which accounts for more than half of the economy, to be unchanged.
Net exports, or the difference between exports and imports, contributed 0.4 percentage point to growth, less than the 0.5 percentage point expected by economists. Exports rose 2.9 percent and imports gained 0.5 percent from the second quarter. Both were lower than analysts' predictions.
Housing investment was the largest drag on growth, falling an annualized 27.8 percent in the third quarter, after the government enforced stricter rules for obtaining building permits in response to a 2005 scandal involving faked earthquake-engineering data. From the previous quarter it dropped 7.8 percent.
Central Bank Forecast
The Bank of Japan cut its economic growth forecast for the year ending March 31 to 1.8 percent from 2.1 percent, in part because of the drop in construction.
``The housing decline is going to be a drag on growth, so a pickup in the economy is going to be delayed until next year,'' said Takehiro Sato, chief Japan economist at Morgan Stanley in Tokyo. ``If the problem continues, it could lead to bankruptcies in the construction sector.''
The Topix Construction Index of 103 companies has dropped more than a fifth in the past three months, making it the worst performer of the 33 groups in the broader Topix index, which slumped 11 percent in the same period. The fallout has spread to other industries as well.
Toto Ltd., a bathroom fixtures company, cut its full-year profit forecast by 25 percent last month after the rule change caused a drop in demand from customers furbishing new homes. Its shares have fallen 19 percent since August, when reports first showed housing starts plummeting.
Housing Starts
``It usually takes about three months for housing starts to affect us so we're starting to see the impact this quarter,'' said Kenji Matsumoto, spokesman at the Fukuoka-based company. ``The decline in starts has been so large that we had to revise our full-year forecasts.''
The economy may not be able to count on export growth in coming months as the U.S. economy deteriorates and Japan's currency strengthens.
The yen has risen more than 5 percent against the dollar this month. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said last week that that growth in the world's largest economy will ``slow noticeably'' this quarter.
The U.S. economy is expected to expand at a 1.5 percent annual pace in the fourth quarter, less than half that of the third quarter, economists surveyed this month said.
To contact the reporter on this story: Lily Nonomiya in Tokyo at lnonomiya@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: November 12, 2007 19:26 EST
- Mensagens: 555
- Registado: 2/7/2004 18:11
1 Mensagem
|Página 1 de 1
Quem está ligado:
Utilizadores a ver este Fórum: m-m e 120 visitantes