Ao minuto: Mais de 200 petroleiros à espera de passar por Ormuz. UE avalia imposto "windfall" na energia

[nunoand99]

O artigo está muito bom, mas não se aplica ao nosso PSI20.

Não se aplica nos pontos de acções especificas (ou sectores especifico), nem nos argumentos de conjuntura.

Não sei se 2008 vai ser "bear" ou "bull", pelo que mais vale precaver-me contra todas as situações.

Também não sei se iremos ter um "year end rally as usual".

Mas parece-me bastante certo que o PSI20 em 2008 irá ter um comportamento abaixo dos outros indices Europeus

[artista_]

Pois parece que afinal ainda há quem esteja bull, mesmo nos states...

Boa semana para todos

[valves]

When I read Doug Kass's excellent about-face case for a year-end rally, I believe I have to address the possibility that we could go higher from here, perhaps dramatically, because of some things that could happen and some things that have already happened. Here's a list of 10 things that have been and could go right that would propel us up 1,000 points -- to my Dow target -- by year-end.

1. The stock market is cheap. Most of the stocks I follow are in low or mid-teen multiples or at a price-to-earnings ratio vs. high growth rate that I regard as being just flat-out cheap, particularly when you consider a 4% 10-year Treasury. Retail at 10 times earnings? Lots of high-growth tech stocks at mid-teen multiples? It makes no sense to me.

2. Takeovers and going-privates could come back. On a large scale we saw BHP Billiton (BHP - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) make a move today for Rio Tinto (RTP - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr). On a smaller scale there's money to go private, witness Restoration Hardware (RSTO - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating).

3. There are some very strong bull markets out there. Health care cost containment, agriculture, oil and oil services, infrastructure, tech and aerospace defense. There are a lot of sectors that work.

4. Interest rates. The financials are so dire that the Fed will have to cut twice by year-end or give us another half-point cut, which will flush a huge amount of money from the sidelines and embolden banks to start lending again.

5. The market still loves high growth. Witness Google (GOOG - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating), Research In Motion (RIMM - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating), First Solar (FSLR - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr), Apple (AAPL - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) and Intuitive Surgical (ISRG - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating). Believe me, if this market were really bad, you wouldn't get those to go up, either.

6. The cheap dollar. The dollar, which everyone frets about, is just too darned cheap and the moment it bottoms you will see a wave of acquisitions from overseas that could blow your mind.

7. Oil. Oil could find a level where it just gives us some breathing room and allows the world to adjust to higher prices.

8. The government. The federal government or the Fed actually steps up and buys AAA and AA tranche CDOs to get things moving again. This is simply not that hard a task, but they haven't shown any inclination to do a thing so far. They could surprise us.

9. The negativity and the shorting are so intense that they simply can't be right. There are too many against the market -- the sentiment issue Kass talks to eloquently about.

10. Global growth. Our companies just aren't as reliant on the U.S. anymore but "market" thinks they are. That's just not the case.


Cumpts