O petróleo está em queda, mas a incerteza continua em alta

[vitor79]

Mechanic, só mais uma coisa no dia 25 saem o numero de casas vendidas nos States em Agosto.

De forma que eu por causa das coisas só entro depois desse dia, ver como é que os mercados reagem a esse número.
É que as coisas podem subir a partir de amanhã, mas depois não se aguentarem com esses números.

[The Mechanic]

Muito interessante este artigo e muito importante , na medida em que tambem eu acho que vái ser um ponto importante na resolução ( ou não )desta crise das hipotecas .

O corte , já antecipado por muitos de 0,25 nas Tx. Juro irá ser um sinal evidente que não interessa cortar muito, mas que alguma coisa se está a fazer , alem de injectar dinheiro no Mercado .

Será um sinal de confiança aos desconfiados investidores , que possibilitará inclusive o inicio de um rallie que venha trazer de volta aos Mercados muitos daqueles que aguardam , já impacientemente , a altura certa pra entrar face ao preço actual dos titulos em negociação .

Quando o petroleo desatou a subir e os Mercados a descer , que tambem se via tudo muito negro em relação ao futuro das acções . O que é certo é que os mecanismos próprios regularam a situação , o petroleo está mais alto que então e neste momento nem se fala dele . Os Mercados subiram a partir de então e só voltaram a descer com esta problemática dos "subprime" .

As condições para retomar as subidas ( acções com preços muito baixos em relação ao um passado recente)estão aí . Falta a retoma de confiança dos investidores . E essa confiança só vem com as acções dos mecanismos reguladores dos Mercados...

O verdadeiro busilis da questão é : poderá amanhã ser um "turning point" ou será a confirmação do possivel inicio de um Bear Market !?

A ninguem interessará uma recessão economica ( a quase ninguem ...! ) e o FED sabe muito bem quais vão ser as consequencias directas da decisão de amanhã , bem como quais as prioridades do futuro próximo .

Eu creio que a maior parte dos grandes intervenientes nos Mercados estará neste momento expectante ( e optimista/desconfiado ) , que o FED não falhe na sua decisão...

Como o artigo diz ,esta é tambem a hipotese de Bernanke deixar pra trás o fantasma de Greenspan, que na sua "estranha miopia" , não viu esta crise das "subprime" aproximar-se...

Os fechos de hoje , mais do que os cursos diários , poderão dar uma indicação do que poderão ser as expectativas para essa decisão de amanhã...

Um abraço ,

The Mechanic

[domhenri]

The Fed will have to cut rates
Published: September 16 2007 18:40 | Last updated: September 16 2007 18:40
Imagine a computer. Inside it a billion microprocessors run a mathematical system of awesome complexity. Numbers pulse on a hundred screens feeding you alarming but confusing information from the machine. The only controls are three buttons: marked 0bp, 25bp, and 50bp. You must guess the effects of each button and then press the one that will bring calm.

That is what Chairman Ben Bernanke and the governors of the Federal Reserve have to do when they meet on Tuesday to decide whether and by how much to cut US interest rates. Their choice will determine whether credit markets stabilise, whether the US housing downturn becomes a recession and whether inflation is rekindled. It will define Mr Bernanke’s term at the Fed. This is a meeting that matters.

Since the Fed last met on August 7 there has been a sharp shock to the money markets. Banks and their offspring – the conduits that issue commercial paper to fund portfolios of longer-term assets – are having to pay more to borrow if they are able to borrow at all. There has also been poor data on the real economy, including a weak payrolls report, that increases the risk of a recession or serious US slowdown.

That is what the Fed has to respond to. Its choices are no change, a quarter of a percentage point cut to its 5.25 per cent policy rate, or a bigger cut of half a point.

There is an economic case for keeping rates steady. One month of bad employment data should not be a cause for panic and the housing slowdown is yet to have a dramatic effect on consumer spending. The risks to growth have increased but the Fed must also worry about inflation. A world with oil at record highs, Chinese inflation of 6.5 per cent and a falling dollar is not one where price stability is guaranteed.

The other reason to hold rates – in the face of a market confidently expecting a cut – would be to discourage future episodes of speculative financial excess. It would end any notion of a “Bernanke put”.

Mr Bernanke and his colleagues, however, have not signalled a hard line. If they were to hold rates tomorrow the stock market would fall by hundreds of points in minutes, money market rates would spike higher and the shock to confidence could create a recession where none was in prospect. A precautionary rate cut is justified because of the increased risks to growth. That need not create moral hazard.

A quarter point cut would formalise what the Fed is already doing: its open market operations have kept the Fed Funds rate well below target in recent weeks. A 25bp cut is widely expected and would signal a calm and measured approach to the turmoil. It is probably the action best justified by the data on the real economy we have seen to date.

The danger in a quarter point cut is that it has been anticipated so well that it will have little effect. One and three-month interbank rates might not move, increasing the premium to overnight rates, and making the Fed look impotent. That would be another blow to confidence, but market fine tuning cannot be a responsibility of the Fed.

A 50bp cut, by contrast, would deliver a positive shock: the markets believe it possible but are not fully discounting it. It would signal aggressive, pre-emptive Fed action to prevent a recession and, by doing so, might mean that rates do not have to be cut so far later.

But a 50bp cut would come at the cost of inflation-fighting credibility. The message the market would take is that the Fed will always cut in a crisis and that it worries more about growth than inflation. Another audience would hear that message too: the army of foreign investors who own US bonds and finance its trade deficit. The Fed must keep one eye on the dollar.

The best option tomorrow is a 25bp cut. That given, the statement that accompanies it will be crucial.

In its statement the Fed should make only the most oblique of references to the credit markets. Any suggestion that it will cut rates until they stabilise is a hostage to fortune and a spur to moral hazard.

The Fed should say that it remains concerned about the risk of inflation and should justify any rate cut by reference to an increased risk of severe recession.

Most of all, the Fed should say that future rate decisions will depend on future data, not just on growth but on inflation. A strong bias toward further rate cuts would do most of the harm of a 50bp move without many of the benefits.

The economic machine is hard to read at the best of times, but the outcome of the present turmoil is especially hard to foresee. The Fed’s policy should be to respond to data on and risks to the real economy in a coherent and predictable way. For Mr Bernanke to be remembered as a great central banker he will need to press the right button in this crisis.