O petróleo está em queda, mas a incerteza continua em alta

[Ulisses Pereira]

"Think About What Not to Sell"

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
8/29/2007 10:10 AM EDT

"Trust it? Trust what? The builders? The bankers? Anything financial? This is a seasonably good time, but that was wrecked Tuesday. The anemic bounce in the financials may return. At least the group didn't rip upward at the open, which would have been deadly.


How about looking at it like this: what not to sell?

I wouldn't sell semis or networkers, like the Ciscos (CSCO - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating), because the financial business, where the weakness is, won't affect them much.

I wouldn't sell ag.

I wouldn't sell oil.

And I wouldn't sell health care; those names keep catching bids. Notice that Schering-Plough (SGP - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) is still above its secondary offering price. Notice that Celgene (CELG - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) hangs in. And they can't crush the device companies or the health care cost-containers -- you have to like the Medcos (MHS - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) of the world, and let's lump in CVS (CVS - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating), for that matter.

I have to admit that after Tuesday's shellacking I was drawn to Goldman Sachs (GS - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating). I also thought that it was intriguing that they got to the Northern Trusts (NTRS - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) and the State Streets (STT - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) and the Bank of New Yorks (BK - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) Tuesday, traditional repositories of safety in the banking world. When they get to Chubb (CB - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating), my insurance gold standard, we'll have to believe it has at last run its course.

Why Goldman? I think it is going down at this point because you can raise a lot of capital selling it. At last, if you believe the numbers, it's cheap enough to start buying. Goldman's not defenseless like a State Street and it is more nimble.

Of course all of this revolves around whatever is AAA-rated. I would look at it like this: if you are worried that a company has something to do with AAA-rated bonds, stay away from it for now until we see genuine evidence that the contagion stopped somewhere. I know the market thinks it stops nowhere, so that's important.


All in all, I think the dark day that was Tuesday has produced hope that Ben Bernanke will accelerate his rate cuts or make them bigger.

I know that there are good people on this site who believe the prospect of a cut doesn't matter. I ask, Did you just pass up the 800-point rally we had off the bottom? Did it mean nothing to you? And aren't you confusing the fundamentals with the stock prices, which, at fulcrum moments, is just a bad move?

I think you are.

And I am losing patience with those who tell us that we can't bail out this guy or that guy. At this point I could care less if we bailed out the people at NovaStar (NFI - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating). That's how bad things really are and how in need of relief we are.

I also am beginning to resent those who confuse relief for trading desks with relief for the 310 million people who don't work on trading desks.

They matter, too. "

(in www.realmoney.com)