O petróleo está em queda, mas a incerteza continua em alta

[Keyser Soze]

Alcatel llega a un acuerdo con Research In Motion para distribuir su Blackberry en China.

[James Wheat]

A Ericksson está a fazer mínimos, a cair mais de 27%... Pelo andar da carruagem, a sangria vai levá-la abaixo dos €19 - queda de 30% num dia ... Fénix, staggering !!

[Keyser Soze]

Equity: Ericsson is being hammered on the back of this profit warning and so far down 25%. The actual report is not released until the 25th of October but rumours that profits will be down 36%.

[Keyser Soze]

Europe September 28, 2007, 1:37PM EST text size: TT
Hard Times at Alcatel-Lucent

Less than a year after CEO Patricia Russo took over, she's under a cloud because of a slew of problems, some of them inherited

by Carol Matlack

Alcatel-Lucent (ALU) Chief Executive Patricia Russo is running out of time. Less than a year after she took the top job at the Paris telecom equipment maker, Alcatel is in free fall. The stock is cratering, sales are shriveling on both sides of the Atlantic, and the board is demanding answers, fast.

On Sept. 28, French business daily Les Echos reported that Alcatel-Lucent's board had called an emergency meeting on Sept. 20 and asked Russo to present a turnaround plan by Oct. 30. Shares rose more than 4% on the news—a measure of how desperate investors have become for a glimmer of potentially good news.

An Alcatel-Lucent spokesman, while declining to comment in detail on the report, said the company was "looking at ways to accelerate" previously announced restructuring plans, after issuing its third profit warning (BusinessWeek, 7/13/07) of the year on Sept. 13. "The company takes seriously the need to improve the financial performance of the business and is taking the necessary steps," he said.

Can Russo, the U.S.-born former boss of Lucent, pull the merged company out of this tailspin? Can she even hold onto her job?

Value of Merger Wiped Out

Already, some industry watchers are talking about jettisoning big parts of the company—and Russo herself. "There are serious questions about Pat's viability as CEO," says Richard Windsor, a London-based analyst for Nomura Securities. Alcatel's market capitalization has shrunk from more than $36 billion to $23 billion over the past year, wiping out any value added by its merger with Lucent.

There's growing consensus that the company will have to sell off its wireless business, including European operations formerly held by Alcatel, and U.S. holdings that once belonged to Lucent. Some analysts are calling for even more drastic steps. Per Lindberg of Dresdner Kleinwort in London says the company should sell Bell Labs—which it inherited from Lucent—while eliminating 30,000 jobs, more than twice the 12,000 layoffs that the company has already forecast.

To be sure, some of Russo's worst problems are not entirely of her own making. Alcatel-Lucent's GSM wireless business outside the U.S., mainly inherited from French precursor Alcatel, is hemorrhaging more than $1 billion a year in red ink as rivals such as Ericsson (ERIC) steal away market share. In the U.S. the company is suffering because major customers such as Verizon (VZ) are delaying buying new equipment.

Making a Fresh Start

But a decision made on Russo's watch—the recent acquisition of Nortel's next-generation wireless business—has compounded the problems in Europe, because integrating the new business has hampered Alcatel-Lucent's ability to fight off aggressive competitors. It now looks as if the company will have to sell off its wireless business—exiting Europe first, and later the U.S., where it uses CDMA technology, which is gradually being phased out there.

Alcatel-Lucent may be forced to replace Russo, analysts say, simply to reassure investors that it's serious about making a fresh start. Windsor suggests that Christian Reinaudo, head of Alcatel's northern European operations, could be promoted to CEO. Lindberg of Dresdner Kleinwort is pulling for Mike Quigley, a longtime Alcatel executive who recently left the company. Quigley had been considered heir apparent (BusinessWeek, 7/25/05) to former Alcatel CEO Serge Tchuruk before the 2006 merger propelled Russo into the job. Tchuruk became nonexecutive chairman.

For Russo—and for Tchuruk, the architect of this transatlantic merger gone horribly awry—the next few weeks are sure to be unpleasant.

Matlack is BusinessWeek's Paris bureau chief .

[ljbk]

O comportamento deste titulo deverá depender dos mercados americanos. Caso não haja nenhuma desgraça no S&P, NASDAQ e DOW, acredito que haverá um rebound pelo menos de curto prazo.
Basta ver a sessão de hoje: depois de um descalabro inicial, com uma abertura a 8.44 e um minimo a 8.35, formou um triangulo ascendente com limite precisamente no preço de fecho a 8.58 com os Futuros do Nasdaq sempre negativos. Depois de chegar a esse valor, acompanhou os mercados americanos oscilando entre os 8.56 e os 8.65 com bastante volume.
A nivel do grafico, tem suporte de longo prazo nos 8.24 limitado por uma LTD de longo prazo que passou pelos 10.73, notando-se hoje uma pequena alteração de tendência dos Money Flows e na Acumulação / Distribuição. O RSI está nos 20 indicando alguma sobrevenda.
Devido às quedas de cerca de 15% em 2 semanas, estamos claramente abaixo das médias móveis pelo que qualquer entrada é arriscada.

Nota: tenho posição na ALU.

[Sky]

Estas duas acções foram as que mais caíram hoje na Euronext (Alcatel -9%, Agfa -13%). Estamos a falar de uma entrada curta?

Não. Aproveitar o "saldo" para comprar barato e esperar o rebound.

[Elias]

Entrei ontem na AGFA, num espaço temporal curto.

Não me fiz entender. Uma entrada curta quer dizer para lucrar com as descidas.

[lalbino]

Entrei ontem na AGFA, num espaço temporal curto.

[Elias]

Eu se não tivesse já gasto o guito todo a semana passada (nos saldos) entrava agora na Alcatel-Lucent e na Agfa (Bruxelas)

Estas duas acções foram as que mais caíram hoje na Euronext (Alcatel -9%, Agfa -13%). Estamos a falar de uma entrada curta?

[lalbino]

Acabei de comprar AGFA.
Boa dica!

[Sky]

Eu se não tivesse já gasto o guito todo a semana passada (nos saldos) entrava agora na Alcatel-Lucent e na Agfa (Bruxelas)

[lalbino]

Pois...
Também fiquei com essa ideia.

[Elias]

Entrar a médio prazo, uma vez que tudo indicava até à apresentação dos resultados do 2Q2007, ser este um bom titulo, com boas rendibilidades possíveis para os Ptargets avançados pelas diferentes casas de investimento.
Gostaria de aplicar alguma liquidez que obtive na compra de títulos não mt especulativos e que para além de boas perpectivas futuras, ainda não tivesse arrancado na recuperação do mercado, nesta pós-correcção. ( )Acho que já não há muitos nos mercados europeus a que tenho acesso...

Considerando os péssimos resultados apresentados pela empresa, este sim seria um título muito especulativo...

[lalbino]

Entrar a médio prazo, uma vez que tudo indicava até à apresentação dos resultados do 2Q2007, ser este um bom titulo, com boas rendibilidades possíveis para os Ptargets avançados pelas diferentes casas de investimento.
Gostaria de aplicar alguma liquidez que obtive na compra de títulos não mt especulativos e que para além de boas perpectivas futuras, ainda não tivesse arrancado na recuperação do mercado, nesta pós-correcção. ( )Acho que já não há muitos nos mercados europeus a que tenho acesso...

[Elias]

Pensava entrar neste título, será este um bom momemto de entrada?

Qual seria exactamente o teu objectivo com esta entrada? (quantitativamente falando, é claro)

[lalbino]

Pensava entrar neste título, será este um bom momemto de entrada?

[Elias]

Está a cair 8%

[Keyser Soze]

Alcatel-Lucent Posts Second-Quarter Loss on Costs of Merger

By Rudy Ruitenberg

July 31 (Bloomberg) -- Alcatel-Lucent, the world's largest maker of telecommunications equipment, posted a second straight quarterly loss on costs related to the merger that created the company.

The net loss was 586 million euros ($803 million) in the second quarter, Paris-based Alcatel-Lucent said in an e-mailed statement. The company had a pro forma net income of 128 million euros a year earlier.

Alcatel SA and Lucent Technologies Inc., unable to revive sales or their share prices since the technology bubble burst in 2000, combined last year to fight competition from China's Huawei Technologies Co. and Sweden's Ericsson AB. Now investors are pressuring Patricia Russo, head of the merged company, to forecast the company's profit margin so they can judge whether the combination is paying off.

``In the second quarter 2007, the gross margin was lower than we would have liked,'' Chief Executive Officer Patricia Russo said in the statement. ``2007 is clearly a transition year for the company.''

Alcatel-Lucent had been expected to report a second-quarter net loss of 275 million euros on costs to combine the companies, based on the median estimate of four analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Slashing Jobs

Russo said in February that plans to cut 12,500 jobs will contribute to 1.7 billion euros in annual costs after three years. Revenue should rise, and by the end of the year should be at least in line with the 4 percent to 6 percent increase in spending by voice and data carriers, Russo said in May.

Operating income excluding the amortization of the $15.3 billion Lucent purchase price, which the company calls adjusted pro forma operating income, slumped to a loss of 19 million euros. That was less than the 61 million-euro median profit forecast of eight analysts.

Alcatel-Lucent's sales slipped 3.7 percent to 4.33 billion euros. The company said in May its first-quarter sales fell 12 percent, hurt by lower demand for older wireless network equipment in emerging markets and for traditional telephone gear including some types of switches.

The company had forecast second-quarter sales would rise about 10 percent from the first quarter, implying revenue of about 4.3 billion euros.

No Forecasts

Alcatel-Lucent didn't provide a forecast for full year earnings or profit margins.

Investors have said they want Russo to forecast a profit margin for the company to help them understand how profitable it might become. The company should be able to achieve an operating margin of about 10 percent within two years, Cesar Zeitouni, who helps manage 1.5 billion euros at Exane Asset Management in Paris, said before the report.

At Stockholm-based Ericsson, the largest maker of wireless networks, operating profit in the most recent quarter equaled 19.4 percent of sales.

Alcatel-Lucent shares have dropped below 10 euros from a nine-month high of 11.86 euros in January as investors questioned whether Alcatel's purchase of Lucent would pay off.

Alcatel-Lucent shares have slipped 12 percent this year to 9.63 euros in Paris, giving the company a market value of 22.2 billion euros. The stock is the second-worst performer among the world's 10 biggest makers of phone equipment. Shares of Nortel Networks Corp. have sunk 24 percent.

Nine analysts have ``sell'' ratings on Alcatel-Lucent shares, 11 have ``hold'' and 14 recommend buying, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Among the industry's biggest companies, only Avaya Inc. and Tellabs Inc. are more out of favor.

Cost Target

Russo has said about 55 percent of the company's planned cost savings will come from job cuts and 45 percent from process improvements and areas such as purchasing. The company has a target for 600 million euros in cost savings this year.

The executive said in May that the company had achieved 15 percent of the job-reduction target by the end of March. Alcatel- Lucent has said restructuring costs will be about 1.6 billion euros, including 900 million euros this year.

The company posted a first-quarter loss of 8 million euros compared with net income of 105 million euros, hurt by 338 million euros in non-cash costs to revalue Lucent's assets. Excluding those costs, first-quarter profit slipped 35 percent to 199 million euros.

Alcatel-Lucent has said it's ``confident'' it can increase sales as the year progresses, after orders exceeded billings by 1.3 times at the end of the first quarter.

To contact the reporter on this story: Rudy Ruitenberg in Paris at rruitenberg@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: July 31, 2007 01:47 EDT

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