Ao minuto: Primeiros navios já terão atravessado o estreito de Ormuz. EUA vai impôr tarifas a países que vendam armas ao Irão

[ptmasters]

Com FED ou sem FED o que vejo é que os 1490 já foram tocados três vezes e há sempre uma reacção positiva. Isto não quer dizer que não possa ser furado, no entanto, para já, acredito mais que o índice supere de modo sustentado os 1510.

Depois do dia de hoje acredito exactamente no oposto. Os 1490 não vão resistir

Pois, a chave do problema parece estar exactamente nos 1513 e nos 1491. O facto do SP500 ter chegado hoje aos 1513 e cair rapidamente, pode estar a sugerir um sell signal com quebra em baixa dos 1491.

Por outro lado, se houver uma reacção positiva na zona dos 1503, pode-se dar o inverso.

Não deverá faltar muito para vermos o desfecho disto.

1 ab e bn

[lois]

cá vai o grafico com a sessão de hoje do ndx, análises agradecem-se...



abraço e BN,
Lois

[moguita]

Com FED ou sem FED o que vejo é que os 1490 já foram tocados três vezes e há sempre uma reacção positiva. Isto não quer dizer que não possa ser furado, no entanto, para já, acredito mais que o índice supere de modo sustentado os 1510.

Depois do dia de hoje acredito exactamente no oposto. Os 1490 não vão resistir

[jarc]

Com FED ou sem FED o que vejo é que os 1490 já foram tocados três vezes e há sempre uma reacção positiva. Isto não quer dizer que não possa ser furado, no entanto, para já, acredito mais que o índice supere de modo sustentado os 1510.

[lois]

reacção à noticia do fed...

[euritos]

Ou seja, acho difícil esperarmos cortes de taxas na próxima reunião. E, ao contrário do que a maior parte dos analistas defende, eu continuo a achar que só quando os cortes de taxas se derem é que as preocupações se iniciam. Ai os velhos manuais...

Um abraço,
Ulisses

Concordo, quando as taxas de juro baixarem é sinal de que a economia Americana está a ficar realmente negativa, e é aí que o mercado vira definitivamente para baixo.

[carrancho]

Penso que a passagem chave da decisão é esta:

"Readings on core inflation have improved modestly in recent months. However, a sustained moderation in inflation pressures has yet to be convincingly demonstrated. Moreover, the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain those pressures. In these circumstances, the Committee's predominant policy concern remains the risk that inflation will fail to moderate as expected. "

Ou seja, acho difícil esperarmos cortes de taxas na próxima reunião. E, ao contrário do que a maior parte dos analistas defende, eu continuo a achar que só quando os cortes de taxas se derem é que as preocupações se iniciam. Ai os velhos manuais...

Um abraço,
Ulisses

Ou seja, como só consigo tirar algum em bull, posso ir aproveitando as mais valias para entregar ao banco onde tenho o meu crédito habitação... como pagamento dos juros altos que me cobram!!!

Abraço,

Carrancho

[Adam hedge]

boa tarde.
caro ulisses e o que contar no curto prazo no mercado,como acha que os mercados irão interpretar as palavras do fed? pelos vistos não gostaram muito pois estão a aliviar

abraço
J.matias

[Ulisses Pereira]

Penso que a passagem chave da decisão é esta:

"Readings on core inflation have improved modestly in recent months. However, a sustained moderation in inflation pressures has yet to be convincingly demonstrated. Moreover, the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain those pressures. In these circumstances, the Committee's predominant policy concern remains the risk that inflation will fail to moderate as expected. "

Ou seja, acho difícil esperarmos cortes de taxas na próxima reunião. E, ao contrário do que a maior parte dos analistas defende, eu continuo a achar que só quando os cortes de taxas se derem é que as preocupações se iniciam. Ai os velhos manuais...

Um abraço,
Ulisses

[Infoo]

continua complicado aceder ao fórum !

cá fica o momento do dia


2:15 PM ET, Jun 28, 2007 - 1 minute ago
FOMC vote unanimous to hold rates steady
Fed sees growth at moderate pace in coming quarters
Fed says adjustment in housing ongoing
Fed says growth has been moderate in first half of year
Fed repeats inflation still predominant policy concern
Fed says sustained moderation in inflation not yet apparent
Fed says core inflation has improved modestly
FOMC holds rates steady at 5.25% as expected

By Greg Robb Last Update: 2:15 PM ET Jun 28, 2007
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The Federal Open Market Committee on Thursday kept its benchmark federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25%. The Fed said inflation readings have improved in recent months, but indicated it was not yet satisfied. "A sustained moderation in inflation pressures has yet to be convincingly demonstrated," the Fed said. The Fed repeated that the risk that inflation will fail to moderate as expected is the "predominant policy concern." The Fed has chosen to hold interest rates steady since last June. The decision was expected by traders and economists on Wall Street.

Text of Federal Reserve statement
Here is the statement released by the Federal Open Market Committee on Thursday after it held overnight interest rates steady:
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 percent.
Economic growth appears to have been moderate during the first half of this year, despite the ongoing adjustment in the housing sector. The economy seems likely to continue to expand at a moderate pace over coming quarters.
Readings on core inflation have improved modestly in recent months. However, a sustained moderation in inflation pressures has yet to be convincingly demonstrated. Moreover, the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain those pressures.
In these circumstances, the Committee's predominant policy concern remains the risk that inflation will fail to moderate as expected. Future policy adjustments will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Thomas M. Hoenig; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Cathy E. Minehan; Frederic S. Mishkin; Michael H. Moskow; William Poole; and Kevin M. Warsh.


Fed not convinced inflation has slowed
By Greg Robb, MarketWatch Last Update: 2:16 PM ET Jun 28, 2007

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The Federal Reserve isn't convinced that core inflation has dropped into its target range, the central bank said as it kept short-term interest rates steady after Thursday's meeting.
The Federal Open Market Committee cited moderate economic growth and still-high inflationary pressures in its statement.
Following a two-day meeting of the policy-making FOMC, the central bank chose to hold its target for the key federal funds interest rate, at which banks lend each other money overnight, at 5.25%.
The vote was unanimous.
The FOMC acknowledged improvement in both inflation and growth prospects. The committee said inflation had improved modestly, but said that "a sustained moderation in inflation pressures has yet to be convincingly demonstrated."
The Fed made only minor changes to the policy statement; it was largely a repeat of the statement from the last FOMC meeting on May 9.
The Fed has held rates steady for the past year after completing an unprecedented series of seventeen straight 0.25 percentage point rate hikes. See MarketWatch comprehensive Fed coverage

Inflation
On inflation, the Fed said "readings on core inflation have improved modestly in recent months."
In May, the Fed said core inflation remained "somewhat elevated."
Core inflation has been coming down, but revised government figures released earlier Thursday showed the improvement wasn't as pronounced as earlier thought, with core inflation up 2.3% in the year through March, rather than 2.2% as previously reported.
The revision puts core inflation further above the Fed's unofficial target range of 1% to 2%. The earlier figures had core inflation falling to 2% at the end of April, leading some analysts to suggest the Fed would lessen its alert level on inflation slightly in its announcement later Thursday.
Although the most up-to-date figures won't be known until Friday morning, with the release of the May inflation figures, the first-quarter revisions served to maintain the Fed's inflation alert at a somewhat elevated level.

Growth outlook
The Fed said the growth outlook would likely "continue at a modest pace over coming quarters."
In May, the Fed said "economic growth slowed in the first part of the year and the adjustment in the housing sector is ongoing."
The U.S. economy slowed to a crawl in the first quarter, growing at a 0.7% real annual pace. Economists say the latest economic data point to a clear pickup in the second quarter, with estimates now topping a 3% annual pace.
The big unknown is the pace of growth in the third quarter. Will the economy lose momentum or will the faster pace of growth be sustained? Will inflation pick up or continue to ease gradually?
The Fed will not have anything more than an informed guess about the third quarter's economic performance when it meets again on Aug. 7. This puts back realistic estimates of any policy action to the following meeting on Sept. 18 at the earliest.

Next move too close to call
Given the shifting sands of economic data, many analysts said it is still too close to call whether a rate hike or a rate cut will be the most likely next move from Fed officials.
Many see no move by the central bank for months, with some seeing rates holding steady into the middle of 2008.
A number of analysts think the Fed will have to lower rates eventually. Others are equally convinced that a rate hike will be necessary.
Economists see the current interest level as "slightly restrictive," or acting as a slight drag on growth.
Jim Svinth, chief economist at Lending Tree, said the Fed will probably have to cut rates to support the faltering housing market.
Svinth said he didn't think the housing market had hit the bottom and the market would be vulnerable to further weakness if many subprime mortgage borrowers default over the next year.
"Maybe I'm too close but I see the mortgage market and the housing market on a daily basis. We're not seeing the inventory numbers come down," Svinth said.
Inventories of existing homes hit a 15-year high in May, the National Association of Realtors said.
Kevin Logan, senior market economist at Dresdner Kleinwort, also expects a rate cut in December.
The recent sharp escalation in long-term Treasury yields will make credit less available, slowing consumer spending and the economy, Logan said. This will lead the unemployment rate to break out from its recent low levels. The unemployment rate has been in an ultra-low 4.4% to 4.6% range since last September.
"That is the key. If the unemployment rate goes up over the next six months or so, there is a chance the Fed will decide a slightly restrictive policy where they are now is not appropriate and something more neutral would be, so they would ease back a little bit," Logan said.
On the other hand, some analysts see higher odds of a rate hike, given a worrisome inflation outlook, especially rising headline inflation including energy and food prices.
Bill Sullivan, chief economist JVB Financial, said there is a chance that the Fed will hike rates over the next six to 12 months.
Sullivan said he expects the economy to outperform expectations on the upside and grow around a 3% rate over the next year. Given the low unemployment rate, this could provide upside risks to inflation.
"There are still some risks in the inflation outlook and barring a huge slump in economic activity, there is still the opportunity for the Fed to consider a rate hike," Sullivan said.
Of course, Logan said the Fed might be stuck with the dilemma that they hate to be in, facing rising inflation and unemployment rising at the same time.

Communication policy
The Fed meeting also focused on ways to improve their communication to financial markets and the public.
Analysts were not expecting major changes, and did not think the central bankers would agree to set a formal inflation target.