Ao minuto: Teerão permite navegação em Ormuz. EUA vão ajudar a gerir "tráfego acumulado"

[sharpyn]

Tantas vezes as pessoas vão avisar, tantas vezes vai o cântaro à fonte que quando partir vai ser um ai jesus para muita gente ocidental que pôs as poupanças nos fundos e acções a oriente e depois vem o prejuízo da queda das bolsas a Ocidente.Espero nessa altura não ver pessoas a atirarem-e da janela fora (exagerando).
Nessa altura os papeis serão aquela verdadeira pechincha.

[englishman]

Just relax a bit about China stock markets
By Geoff Dyer, Financial Times



Shanghai: Two mornings every week, a friend of mine goes to a park in central Shanghai to practise T'ai-chi, the Chinese exercise regime sometimes known as meditation in motion. The group of mostly retired Chinese is led by an elderly gentleman who mixes strict punctuality with a certain eastern mysticism.

My friend was there on a cold February morning the day after the local stock exchange had fallen nine per cent, spooking the rest of the world's markets. The group was halfway through their hour-long sequence of movements when the leader cut them abruptly short. "I have to leave early to get to my stockbrokers before the market opens," he announced. "Because today is a buying opportunity."


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Everyone who lives in a Chinese city at the moment has a story to tell about the stock market craze and most have a similar theme: fascination with the sheer dynamism of the boom and fear at the occasional recklessness.

Having watched share prices quadruple in two years, more than 100,000 Chinese have been opening trading accounts every day in recent weeks as a new generation of middle-class Chinese has gained a taste for playing the market.

A casino

But in a nation where the urge to gamble is never far below the surface, the stock market has sometimes come to resemble a casino. People have taken out loans to speculate, while a few individuals have even pawned their houses to buy shares. The education ministry last week warned university students not to be distracted by investing.

Eccentric investment theories abound: some are looking for shares with a price less than the cost of a kilo of pork, on the grounds that such a company must be a very good bargain indeed.

The 6.5 per cent drop in the market Wednesday is a grim reminder of how this story could end: a collapse in the Shanghai market with the people who came in at the end of the party picking up the tab. So irrational is the exuberance in China that even Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the US Federal Reserve, is worried.

But will the damage stop there? In the early stages of the market boom, gung-ho Chinese speculators were considered a mild curiosity. Yet as the rally has gathered pace over the past month or so, some international investors have begun to fear the potential global fallout from Shanghai's excesses.

They have started to ask what would be the impact from a crash not just on the Chinese economy but also on global iron ore consumption, Latin American trade surpluses and Treasury bill purchases.

The answer is, well, pretty much nothing at all. If the mainland market were to drop by a further 20-30 per cent, the Chinese economy would barely miss a beat.

For a start, there would be no domino effect of forced selling in one market pulling down others. Given the wall of capital controls that Beijing maintains for its currency, the mainland stock market is a parallel universe, detached in any real sense from other markets, with little money coming in to the country to invest in shares and little going out. Foreign investors have only a very modest exposure to mainland equities. Indeed, capital controls explain why share prices in Shanghai are so high: people have few other places to put their money.

Small part

Despite the recent boom, the stock market is still a relatively small part of the economy, even by the standards of emerging Asia. The massive investment surge in China has been financed largely from corporate profits, not from the capital markets, and would carry on at a relentless pace.

It is possible that consumption growth might be modestly held back, but retail spending was already surging before the market rally began. Most of the new funds have come from savings, not credit, and the Chinese still have $2,000 billion in bank accounts to fall back on. Consumers can withstand a correction.

The Shanghai market still has the power to scare the world - we saw that in Feb-ruary. In markets, if enough people think something is important then it is important, whatever the underlying logic. If global equities are overvalued and due a correction, investors do not need a good reason to start selling, just a popular one.

But for investors comfortable that strong global growth underpins the rise in share prices around the world, a collapse in Shanghai is an occasion to hold one's nerve and remain calm. Maybe even try some T'ai-chi.

[Bala]

Nunnes,
Pelos bistos há rumores não confirmados nos "Amalelos"(fonte: minha correctora) de que o imposto sobre as mais valias pode aumentar. La está, é a loucura, sobem aos montes agora o shangai esta a descer 2,6%... Eu aproveitei para realizar umas mais valias e de momento tenho medo , e quando eu fico assim, não gosto de investir, deixa-la esta semana ja fiz uns 4% com essas loucuras. Talvez prá semana volto a carga...

Abraço e bons trades...
O Bala

[Nunnus]

...
Estou meio líquido, bom, 30%, quer dizer... 25% enfim, meti tudo e é uma loucura, num façam como eu, que eu sei que me vou lixar... Bala (*)

Bom dia

Dizes bem, nunca investir tudo. Quando houve aquela primeira correcção, perdi +- 35% do capital investido. E esse capital era 100%...


Abri os olhos



Abraço



Nuno Guedes



NNNN

[Bala]

Boas!

Pois é, pelos vistos têm sido uma loucura...
Conforme fui informado pela CCTV9 na segunda ou terça, já não me lembro, parece que houve uma empresa chinesa que descobriu petroil la pelas terras da muralha grande.

Desde aí é sempre a bombar, depois andam a apresentar uns resultados doidos, ficou tudo maluco...
Greenquem? Juros aonde? Imposto sobre o que? Crash come-se acompanhado com que? Vou mas é investir numas acções baratinhas (aquelas que tiverem cotação mais baixa), dizem la os "taxistas"*.
*Boa definição de "taxistas":
http://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/default. ... tId=296870

Nos States é só aquisições, aquilo agora parece que é só OPAs por todo lado...

Enfim, pode durar até amanhã, ou pode durar um ano, é aquela coisa, quem está na bolsa têm que contar com correcções e crashes. Sempre ouvi dizer que quem têm medo compra um certificado de aforro, ou aquela aplicação net do Banco Popular que te dá 3.5% ao ano...

A ver vamos...
Estou meio líquido, bom, 30%, quer dizer... 25% enfim, meti tudo e é uma loucura, num façam como eu, que eu sei que me vou lixar...

Abraço e bons trades...
O Bala (*)

[gugu]

By Zhang Shidong and Darren Boey

May 31 (Bloomberg) -- China's stocks rose, rebounding from a rout that yesterday wiped out $161 billion of market value.

The CSI 300 Index gained 41.49, or 1.1 percent, to 3927.95 at the close, having earlier lost as much as 5.2 percent. It yesterday plunged 6.8 percent, the most since Feb. 27, after the finance ministry tripled the tax on share trades to cool a rally was drawing more than 300,000 new investors a day.

``The government definitely doesn't want to see a big correction,'' said Howard Wang, who helps manage JF Asset Management Ltd.'s $443 million JF China Pioneer A-Share Fund in Hong Kong. ``What it wants is for local investors to think of returns as more symmetrical than they have been. If the market comes off 20 percent, then you're looking at a social issue.''

Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co., the Chinese partner of Citigroup Inc., and China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., Asia's biggest oil refiner, were among 19 stocks included in the benchmark that rose by the 10 percent daily limit today. About the same number posted the maximum drop, including Hong Yuan Securities Co., China's first publicly traded brokerage.

Some 368 billion yuan ($48 billion) of shares changed hands today on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, according to figures provided by West China Securities Co. That's less than yesterday's record 407 billion yuan.

`Riding a Lift'

Meng Boqiang, a 45-year-old employee at Toshiba Management (China), said he yesterday sold all his stock holdings after the value of his portfolio dropped by 60,000 yuan.

``I expect the market to drop by at least 30 percent, so I cut my losses immediately,'' he said. ``It's like riding a lift. If you jump from six floors up, you break your legs. But if you wait until the 10th floor to jump, you end up dead.''

Among the shares Meng sold, water supplier Nanhai Development Co. lost 0.85 yuan, or 5.4 percent, to 15.05, after sliding 8.3 percent yesterday. Healthcare company Tsinghua Unisplendour Guhan Bio-Pharmaceutical Corp. plunged 1.46 yuan, or 9.9 percent, to 13.30, having surged by the daily limit in each of the previous five sessions.

Stamp duty on share trades was increased to 0.3 percent ``to promote the healthy development of the securities market,'' the finance ministry said yesterday on its Web site.

``It was kind of expected that the regulators would use some unusual measures to curb the overwhelming liquidity going into this market,'' said Gabriel Gondard, who helps oversee $3.5 billion at Fortune SGAM Fund Management Co. in Shanghai. ``We're waiting a little bit to see where this correction is going'' before deciding to buy more stocks, he said.

Banks

More than 400,000 new accounts were opened at brokerages on May 29, taking the total to 100.7 million, according to the latest figures from the China Securities Depository & Clearing Corp.

Shanghai Pudong Development Bank rose 3.07 yuan to 33.76. Bank of Communications Ltd., China's sixth largest, rose 0.59 yuan, or 4.6 percent, to 13.37. It yesterday said net income climbed 31 percent to 3.8 billion yuan in the first quarter.

China Merchants Bank Co., the nation's third-biggest publicly traded lender, jumped 1.65 yuan, or 8.2 percent, to 21.72. Huaxia Bank Co., partly owned by Deutsche Bank AG, rose 1 yuan, or 8.3 percent, to 13.09.

``Some investors are buying, because they think the market is already at the level that policy makers want it to be,'' said Yan Ji, who helps oversee $517 million as an investment manager at HSBC Jintrust Fund Management Co. in Shanghai. ``A further plunge is unlikely as they don't want to see a meltdown.''

China Petroleum, also known as Sinopec, rose 1.35 yuan to a record 14.85. The company has discovered as much as 200 million tons (1.47 billion barrels) of oil equivalent at Block 12 of Xinjiang province's Tahe field, its parent said yesterday.

`Irrational' Valuations

The CSI 300, which tracks yuan-denominated A shares listed on China's two exchanges, is still up 92 percent this year, the most among 90 global benchmarks tracked by Bloomberg. It's also valued at 45 times reported earnings, while Japan and India -- Asia's next most expensive markets -- are at 23 times.

Jing Ulrich, JPMorgan's Hong Kong-based chairman of China equities, predicts the A-share market will drop about 20 percent in coming weeks.

``The valuation premium of A-shares is irrational but it's the result of China's unique circumstances: limited investment options, negative real interest rates and a closed capital account,'' she said today at a press briefing in Hong Kong. ``The blue chips are not overpriced as their earnings growth is the strongest ever.''

The central bank this month raised interest rates for the second time this year, encouraging people to save rather than invest in stocks. The official one-year deposit rate of 3.06 percent, which is the ceiling for commercial banks' deposit rates, is little more than China's 3 percent inflation rate.

The Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks the bigger of China's stock exchanges, climbed 1.4 percent to 4109.65. The Shenzhen Composite Index, which covers the smaller one, fell 1 percent to 1187.51.

Brokerages

Elsewhere, Citic Securities Co., China's biggest publicly traded brokerage, slid 3.52 yuan, or 6.1 percent, to 54.08, extending yesterday's 10 percent decline. The company said Citic Guoan Group, an affiliate, plans to sell its remaining 69.6 million shares in Citic Securities on Aug. 15. That's about 2 percent of the securities firm, according to Bloomberg calculations.

Hong Yuan Securities dropped 3.51 yuan to 31.50, sliding by the daily limit for a second straight day.