EUA e Irão chegam a acordo sobre cessar-fogo após troca intensa de ameaças

[Keyser Soze]

[Keyser Soze]

AVB 117.71 -2.68 (-2.23%)

Chart of the Day

Overall, the US real estate market has been struggling and investors are concerned. For some perspective, today's chart illustrates the current trend of the Dow Jones Wilshire REIT Index. While REITs have been trending up for several years, REITs are down over 14% since reaching their peak in early February of this year. As today's chart illustrates, REITs are now seriously challenging support (green line) of a long-term uptrend. Stay tuned...

[Keyser Soze]

The pace of home construction rose 2.5% in April, beating analysts' expectations, but building permits, which signals future construction plans, sank to the lowest pace in nearly a decade, a government report showed.

The Commerce Department said housing starts hit a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 1.528 million. That was above the 1.490 million pace analysts were expecting after a first reported 1.518 million rate in March that the government revised down to 1.491 million.

Building permits, which signal future construction plans, dropped in April by 8.9% to a pace of 1.429 million units. That was the slowest pace since June of 1997 when the pace stood at 1.402 million and well below expectations for 1.525 million units.

Even though housing starts increased in April to the highest pace since December 2006, they were down 16% from a year ago and, in a sign the troubled housing market may not be turning the corner as quickly as hoped, building permits were off 28.1% from a year ago.

The government's latest data adds to the pessimistic outlook on Tuesday by the National Association of Home Builders, which reported that home builder sentiment sank in May as lenders made it more difficult for borrowers to qualify for mortgages and order cancellations mounted.

[Keyser Soze]

saxo entrou curto novamente

[Keyser Soze]

ontem abriu a subir (por causa do upgrade ?)

the analyst mentions that the company is one of the true "blue chip" names in the REIT sector. AvalonBay Communities has a huge development pipeline and one of the most robust balance sheets in the apartment REIT sector, the analyst says. The company’s stock is currently trading at an 11.2% discount to the estimated NAV per share of $140, Stifel Nicolaus & Company adds.

mas descambou logo

os dados NAHB tb não ajudaram

US NAHB May Housing Index 30 Vs 33 In Apr

Tue, May 15 2007, 17:00 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu

US NAHB May Housing Index 30 Vs 33 In Apr

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--U.S. homebuilders felt a bit less optimistic about the real estate market in May according to a survey measuring builder confidence released on Tuesday.

The National Association of Home Builders' index for sales of new, single-family homes dropped to 30 from 33 in April.

"The crisis in the subprime sector has infected other parts of the mortgage market as well as consumer psychology, and as a result the housing outlook has deteriorated," NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders said in a statement.

"While we still expect to see some improvements in housing market activity beginning later this year, the downside risks and uncertainties surrounding that forecast are considerable," he added.

Within the NAHB's housing market index, the component for present sales of single-family homes fell to 31 in May from 33 in April.

Expectations for sales in the next six months dropped in May to 41 from 44, the NAHB said. The traffic of prospective buyers slipped to 23 from 27.

The May index was based on a survey of 328 home builders, who answer questions about sales prospects now and in the near term. When the Housing Market Index exceeds 50, it means the number of builders who see "good" sales outnumber the number who see "poor" sales. The numbers used in compiling the index are adjusted for seasonal variations.

no gráfico diário (a preços de fechos) as resistências estão a "resistir"

hoje, no pre-market está a subir

[Keyser Soze]

se alguém se lembra de opar é que é chato ... ehehe

foi a "força" que levou a testar a neckline

05-15-2007

Stifel Nicolaus upgrades Apartment REITs Archstone-Smith (NYSE: ASN), AvalonBay Communities (NYSE: AVB), BRE Properties (NYSE: BRE), and Camden Property Trust (NYSE: CPT).

Stifel analyst, Rod Petrik, says, "The common thread between the four companies is that they represent four of the largest development pipelines in the apartment REIT group. Underperformed Year-To-Date. Apartment REITs have underperformed the broader REIT index by 637 basis points this year (SNL REIT Multifamily Index -2.9% vs. the MSCI US REIT Index (RMS) +3.47%). However, the group has shown relative strength over the past few trading sessions primarily due to last week's speculation of take-out bids regarding Post Properties (NYSE: PPS). The underperformance to-date can be attributed to slower job growth, decelerating fundamental performance, a sloppy housing market with decreased home sales leading to increased vacancy of homes and condos, and condo reversion adding to the "for rent" inventory. However, last week's Post announcement was a shot over the bow that appeared to shift investor attention to the inherent discount in apartment company share prices compared to their private market valuations."

[A_S_A]

Stop com fecho acima dos 125.50.

[Keyser Soze]

já testou neckline (horizontal)

[Powerman]

Pois, por isso mesmo é que no meu ponto de vista os alertas que aparecem no Caldeirão, são mais fiáveis.
Pelo menos eu dou mais importancia ao que aqui se escreve (Evidentemente porque existe Administradores e Moderadores que não permitem excessos),versus muitos "entendidos" que escrevem e falam nos jornais.

Abraço

PMAN

[Keyser Soze]

Parabens, porque o Saxo não "viu" o que tu vistes. Só temos de dar mérito a quem o tem . Eu penso assim, e assim o escrevo e digo. Comigo é simples.

Abraço

PMAN

em ambos os casos o neckline não é mt diferente, eles é que foram ganâncias e não esperaram por um retest

mas tb só olhei para este gráfico por causa deles

as trading ideas servem mais para um alerta


as corretoras estão constantemente a lançar trading ideas para fomentarem as transacções e ganharem mais comissões

[Powerman]

Parabens, porque o Saxo não "viu" o que tu vistes. Só temos de dar mérito a quem o tem . Eu penso assim, e assim o escrevo e digo. Comigo é simples.

Abraço

PMAN

[Keyser Soze]

Abraço e parabens mais uma vez.

parabéns pq ? eu ainda não fiz nada, estou à espera ehehe


sim, é do Saxo

[timozé]

Essa recomendação é do Saxo?

[Powerman]

Bom, e agora digo eu... " O Saxo que venha ao caldeirão, para aprender... se quiserem, obviamente".

Abraço e parabens mais uma vez.

Abraço

PMAN

[Keyser Soze]

Keyser,

Pois é , agora pergunto eu: Onde é que esses "meninos" arranjaram os 120/123 para "sell"?
Parabens.

Abraço

PMAN

o "boneco" deles é diferente, usaram o gráfico Semanal (e já foram stopados)

[Powerman]

Já agora o seguinte:

Olhando para o grafico, uma hipotese de entrada seria:

Após tocar 127 (aprox), entrar curto a 125 com stop a 127. Ou isto será "disparate" - E pergunto, porque não estou "habituado" a "curtos"?

Abraço

PMAN

[Powerman]

Keyser,

Pois é , agora pergunto eu: Onde é que esses "meninos" arranjaram os 120/123 para "sell"?
Parabens.

Abraço

PMAN

[Keyser Soze]

[GAB]

Um short com possiveis 20% de lucro...

Um "stop apertado" cerca de 5%.

A ajudar, segundo parece- pelo citado, fundamentais e "TAL TIPO" DE REITs.

parece um short interessante à 1° vista.

E tendo no GRAF/Chart, segundo o citado, um H&S confirmado.
Parece ser boa ideia.

EU arriscaria, se conhecesse mais tal "produto"(Reit´s) e não me tivesse proibido shorts(pelo menos para já), Utiliso shorts em trades virtuais para que futuramente tb sejam uma REFERENCIA/indicador para tomadas de posições LONG.

[GAB]

Um short com possiveis 20% de lucro...

Um "stop apertado" cerca de 5%.

A ajudar, segundo parece- pelo citado, fundamentais e "TAL TIPO" DE REITs.

parece um short interessante à 1° vista.

[Keyser Soze]

Sell Avalonbay Communities (AVB:xnys)

Entry121/123

Stop125

Target 100

H-S pattern completed. US Residential REITs look ugly and fundamentals are deteriorating.