Shanghai Stock Exchange - Réplica da bolha de 2000
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January 30, 2007
China And The Crash of '29
by Paul Lamont
When assets are priced with record levels of optimism, reality will disappoint. As Dr. Marc Faber said recently "the art dealers are bullish on art, the commodity traders bullish on commodities, the real estate guys bullish on real estate, the stock traders bullish on stocks, everybody has something to buy." Therefore the wise contrarian strategy is interest-bearing cash. Over the next few years, most assets will fall in value as risk returns to the market and leverage is unwound. In the future, credit will be extended with greater caution.
"A bank is a place where they lend you an umbrella in fair weather and ask for it back when it begins to rain." - Robert Frost
Debt
As billionaire currency trader George Soros said about financial cycles: "the only surprise is that we are always surprised." For instance, after Reconstruction, signs of railroad stock speculation appeared in the U.S. The popular focus of the day was on easy money, betting, speculation, and credit. In 1873, the speculative bubbles burst and the economy fell into a depression. The print below is from that time period:
Cash Rich and Debt Free China
An economy reliant on debt and speculation is not sustainable. This is as true now, as it was back then. It does not bode well for the United States. Parts of Asia however, especially China, are cash rich and debt free. Their middle class is just beginning to emerge. Just as the crash of 1929 marked the transition of the U.S. economy from the 'factory' to the 'finance' phase, so this year's crash will mark China's economic progression.
Looking at the chart above provided by Elliot Wave International, the 'idealized' long term wave pattern suggests a major sell-off for the United States. In our last article, we discussed many reasons why investors should be selling most assets at this time. The U.S. stock market will struggle sideways for many years under the burden of debt, the deleveraging of its economy, and the weakening of the U.S. dollar. China and other Asian countries, currently in the 'factory' phase (similar to the U.S. in the 1920's), will also undergo a significant correction over the next few years. However, as the Chinese begin to develop consumerism, especially when fueled with debt ('finance' phase), their markets will significantly outperform the U.S.
Why Now Is Not the Time To Buy
The "Skyscraper Indicator", used by Edward Dewey in the 1940s, correlates human optimism to the number of high-rise buildings erected. Simply put, when humans are optimistic, they build toward the sky. Major economic downturns usually follow. Examples include: Empire State Building proposed in 1929, Petronas Towers in Kuala Lumpur in 1997 (Asian Crises of 1997), and Burj Dubai in 2003 (the Dubai market is now down over 78% since last November). Now, according to the China Daily, "at least 3,000 high-rise buildings have been built in Shanghai with another 2,000 in the works. Shanghai is also home to China's tallest building and a new building now under construction will be the world's tallest." This indicator would imply a major sell-off. Recent reports from China, describe novice investors creating hour-long lines outside of stockbroker offices. The two mainland Chinese markets are "running at triple the daily volume of just last year." In manias throughout history, waves of neophytes are the last to join a market before it crashes. Also in Asia, the Vietnam stock market is up ~40% in 2007 and ~180% since 2006. These signs of speculative fervor warn an investor that it is time to sell. Let's take a look at two Asian stock index charts:
The Hong Kong Index and Straits Times (Singapore) Index wave forecasts from Elliotwave.com imply harsh "C" waves down with losses greater than 50% over the next few years. After this major correction, these Asian indexes would complete sideways trading roughly a decade long. Our contrarian analysis also indicates that the U.S. dollar will have a sharp rally during this period. Few investors, foreign or domestic, would be willing or able to invest in these markets at that point. At the market bottom, fearful investors would be scrambling for cash. At that point, we will go against the emotional crowd once again, by advising the purchase of certain undervalued Asian indexes. But in the meantime, asset preservation with cash is the correct strategy.
At Lamont Trading Advisors, Inc. we specialize in the management of risk and preservation of wealth. Visit our Current Strategy section for information on our asset allocation recommendations or Contact Us if you would also like to be notified when our investment analysis reports are published.
Paul J. Lamont - RIA
Lamont Trading Advisors, Inc.
Paul J. Lamont is President of Lamont Trading Advisors, Inc., a registered investment advisor in the State of Alabama. Persons in states outside of Alabama should be aware that we are relying on de minimis contact rules within their respective home state. For more information about our firm visit www.LTAdvisors.net, or to receive a copy of our disclosure form ADV, please email us at advrequest@ltadvisors.net, or call (256) 850-4161.
http://www.safehaven.com/article-6810.htm
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Coincidência?
Os PERs podem estar baixos, mas nos últimos anos muitas das empresas cotadas na China tinham um largo historial de falsos dados fundamentais das empresas e muito dinheiro se evaporou nos últimos anos.
Lembrem-se que passámos de Bear Market (descidas continuas nos últimos 4/5 anos, salvo-erro) para um Bull Market de +100% em um ano e meio.
A longo prazo podemos continuar no Bull Market chinês, a curto/médio prazo não será segredo que iremos ter pesados dias de correcção..
Hoje foi apenas um deles...
Os PERs podem estar baixos, mas nos últimos anos muitas das empresas cotadas na China tinham um largo historial de falsos dados fundamentais das empresas e muito dinheiro se evaporou nos últimos anos.
Lembrem-se que passámos de Bear Market (descidas continuas nos últimos 4/5 anos, salvo-erro) para um Bull Market de +100% em um ano e meio.
A longo prazo podemos continuar no Bull Market chinês, a curto/médio prazo não será segredo que iremos ter pesados dias de correcção..
Hoje foi apenas um deles...
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- Registado: 11/5/2003 12:11
- Localização: Lisboa
China's Stocks Tumble Most in 21 Months; China Merchants Drops
By William Bi and Zhang Shidong
Jan. 31 (Bloomberg) -- China's stocks tumbled the most in at least 21 months after lawmaker Cheng Siwei said the country's shares are overvalued, fueling speculation the government will step up efforts to keep funds from flowing into the market. China Vanke Co. and China Merchants Bank Co. led the decline.
``There is already a bubble here,'' said Zhang Ling, who oversees about $1.1 billion at ICBC Credit Suisse Asset Management Co. in Beijing. ``Concern is mounting that the government will intervene to pop the bubble.''
The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, which tracks yuan- denominated A shares listed on China's two exchanges, plunged 166.55, or 6.5 percent, to 2385.33 at the close, cutting this month's gain to 17 percent. That's the biggest one-day drop since the measure was introduced in April 2005.
Today's decline was the steepest among markets included in global benchmarks. The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index was down 0.5 percent at 3:40 p.m. in Shanghai.
The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 has more than doubled in the past year and is valued at 36 times earnings, the highest among 13 Asia-Pacific benchmarks tracked by Bloomberg. MSCI's regional index has gained 8 percent and is valued at 19 times.
China Vanke, the nation's biggest publicly traded property developer, fell 1.59 yuan, or 9.4 percent, to 15.31. China Merchants Bank, the third-largest lender, slid 1.28 yuan, or 6.9 percent, to 17.17.
Citic Securities Co., the country's biggest brokerage, lost 2.71 yuan, or 7.2 percent, to 34.96. Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., China's biggest steelmaker, tumbled 0.87 yuan, or 8.2 percent, to 9.77.
`Bubble'
Only 30 percent of companies listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange ``are good to invest in by Western standards,'' and investors in the remaining 70 percent will probably lose money, Cheng, vice chairman of the National People's Congress, said yesterday at a conference in Dubai.
The Financial Times, which sponsored the conference, quoted Cheng as saying China's stock market showed signs of a ``bubble.''
``Every investor thinks they can win,'' the paper quoted him as saying. ``But many will end up losing.''
The Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks the bigger of China's stock exchanges, slid 4.9 percent today to 2786.33, falling by the most since June 7. The Shenzhen Composite Index, which covers the smaller one, declined 5.8 percent to 655.53.
``Gradual corrections from irrational levels are better than a sudden burst,'' said Leo Gao, who helps manage the equivalent of $2.3 billion with APS Asset Management Ltd. in Shanghai. ``The government is right to tighten the regulations without intervening in the market.''
Banking Restrictions
China's banking regulator has ordered banks to make proper checks and stop lending to companies and individuals that use the money for stock investments, the state-owned Shanghai Securities News reported Jan. 27.
Policy makers have also been trying to curb overall lending. The People's Bank of China, the central bank, ordered banks to boost reserves four times in the past year to reduce money available for investment. Banks now must set aside 9.5 percent of deposits after a half-percentage-point increase on Jan. 5.
Huaxia Bank Co., partly owned by Deutsche Bank AG, and Tsingtao Brewery Co., China's largest beermaker, both fell by the maximum daily limit of 10 percent today. The shares closed at 10.24 yuan and 17.37 yuan respectively.
Oil Costs
A rebound in oil prices contributed to slides in China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., Asia's biggest refiner, and Air China Ltd., the country's largest international airline.
Crude oil jumped 5.5 percent to $56.97 in New York yesterday, the highest closing price since Jan. 3 and the biggest one-day gain since Sept. 19, 2005, on signs an improving U.S. economy and colder weather may spur demand.
China Petroleum, Asia's biggest oil refiner, also known as Sinopec, slid 0.93 yuan, or 8.8 percent, to 9.68. Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co., China's largest maker of ethylene, lost 0.36 yuan, or 4.9 percent, to 6.94.
China's oil refiners need government approval to raise selling prices, limiting their ability to pass rising crude costs on to customers.
Air China dropped 0.60 yuan, or 7.8 percent, to 7.06. China Southern Airlines Co., the nation's biggest carrier by fleet size, slid 0.30 yuan, or 5 percent, to 5.73.
``The jump in oil prices has weakened confidence,'' said Fan Dizhao, who helps manage the equivalent of $1.8 billion at Guotai Asset Management Co. in Shanghai. ``Refiners and airlines are obviously the first to suffer from rising crude.''
The following stocks rose or fell and the stock symbols are in brackets after companies' names.
Hunan Valin Steel Tube & Wire Co. (000932 CH), in which Mittal Steel Co. is buying a 37 percent stake, advanced 0.19 yuan, or 3.6 percent, to 5.54. The company said profit likely doubled last year as it shifts to higher-grade production and lowered costs.
Zhejiang Supor Cookware Co. (002032 CH), China's biggest producer of kitchen appliances, climbed 0.74 yuan, or 3.2 percent, to 24.01. The company said net income for 2006 probably rose as much as 60 percent from a year earlier on increased sales and a tax rebate.
To contact the reporter on this story: William Bi in Beijing at wbi@bloomberg.net Zhang Shidong in Shanghai at at szhang5@bloomberg.net
By William Bi and Zhang Shidong
Jan. 31 (Bloomberg) -- China's stocks tumbled the most in at least 21 months after lawmaker Cheng Siwei said the country's shares are overvalued, fueling speculation the government will step up efforts to keep funds from flowing into the market. China Vanke Co. and China Merchants Bank Co. led the decline.
``There is already a bubble here,'' said Zhang Ling, who oversees about $1.1 billion at ICBC Credit Suisse Asset Management Co. in Beijing. ``Concern is mounting that the government will intervene to pop the bubble.''
The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, which tracks yuan- denominated A shares listed on China's two exchanges, plunged 166.55, or 6.5 percent, to 2385.33 at the close, cutting this month's gain to 17 percent. That's the biggest one-day drop since the measure was introduced in April 2005.
Today's decline was the steepest among markets included in global benchmarks. The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index was down 0.5 percent at 3:40 p.m. in Shanghai.
The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 has more than doubled in the past year and is valued at 36 times earnings, the highest among 13 Asia-Pacific benchmarks tracked by Bloomberg. MSCI's regional index has gained 8 percent and is valued at 19 times.
China Vanke, the nation's biggest publicly traded property developer, fell 1.59 yuan, or 9.4 percent, to 15.31. China Merchants Bank, the third-largest lender, slid 1.28 yuan, or 6.9 percent, to 17.17.
Citic Securities Co., the country's biggest brokerage, lost 2.71 yuan, or 7.2 percent, to 34.96. Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., China's biggest steelmaker, tumbled 0.87 yuan, or 8.2 percent, to 9.77.
`Bubble'
Only 30 percent of companies listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange ``are good to invest in by Western standards,'' and investors in the remaining 70 percent will probably lose money, Cheng, vice chairman of the National People's Congress, said yesterday at a conference in Dubai.
The Financial Times, which sponsored the conference, quoted Cheng as saying China's stock market showed signs of a ``bubble.''
``Every investor thinks they can win,'' the paper quoted him as saying. ``But many will end up losing.''
The Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks the bigger of China's stock exchanges, slid 4.9 percent today to 2786.33, falling by the most since June 7. The Shenzhen Composite Index, which covers the smaller one, declined 5.8 percent to 655.53.
``Gradual corrections from irrational levels are better than a sudden burst,'' said Leo Gao, who helps manage the equivalent of $2.3 billion with APS Asset Management Ltd. in Shanghai. ``The government is right to tighten the regulations without intervening in the market.''
Banking Restrictions
China's banking regulator has ordered banks to make proper checks and stop lending to companies and individuals that use the money for stock investments, the state-owned Shanghai Securities News reported Jan. 27.
Policy makers have also been trying to curb overall lending. The People's Bank of China, the central bank, ordered banks to boost reserves four times in the past year to reduce money available for investment. Banks now must set aside 9.5 percent of deposits after a half-percentage-point increase on Jan. 5.
Huaxia Bank Co., partly owned by Deutsche Bank AG, and Tsingtao Brewery Co., China's largest beermaker, both fell by the maximum daily limit of 10 percent today. The shares closed at 10.24 yuan and 17.37 yuan respectively.
Oil Costs
A rebound in oil prices contributed to slides in China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., Asia's biggest refiner, and Air China Ltd., the country's largest international airline.
Crude oil jumped 5.5 percent to $56.97 in New York yesterday, the highest closing price since Jan. 3 and the biggest one-day gain since Sept. 19, 2005, on signs an improving U.S. economy and colder weather may spur demand.
China Petroleum, Asia's biggest oil refiner, also known as Sinopec, slid 0.93 yuan, or 8.8 percent, to 9.68. Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co., China's largest maker of ethylene, lost 0.36 yuan, or 4.9 percent, to 6.94.
China's oil refiners need government approval to raise selling prices, limiting their ability to pass rising crude costs on to customers.
Air China dropped 0.60 yuan, or 7.8 percent, to 7.06. China Southern Airlines Co., the nation's biggest carrier by fleet size, slid 0.30 yuan, or 5 percent, to 5.73.
``The jump in oil prices has weakened confidence,'' said Fan Dizhao, who helps manage the equivalent of $1.8 billion at Guotai Asset Management Co. in Shanghai. ``Refiners and airlines are obviously the first to suffer from rising crude.''
The following stocks rose or fell and the stock symbols are in brackets after companies' names.
Hunan Valin Steel Tube & Wire Co. (000932 CH), in which Mittal Steel Co. is buying a 37 percent stake, advanced 0.19 yuan, or 3.6 percent, to 5.54. The company said profit likely doubled last year as it shifts to higher-grade production and lowered costs.
Zhejiang Supor Cookware Co. (002032 CH), China's biggest producer of kitchen appliances, climbed 0.74 yuan, or 3.2 percent, to 24.01. The company said net income for 2006 probably rose as much as 60 percent from a year earlier on increased sales and a tax rebate.
To contact the reporter on this story: William Bi in Beijing at wbi@bloomberg.net Zhang Shidong in Shanghai at at szhang5@bloomberg.net
- Mensagens: 181
- Registado: 16/10/2006 20:26
A bolsa chinesa só agora se abriu ao mundo e com pouco capital disperso. Para um investimento a 20 anos para além da China e da India, não vejo melhor local para se aplicar dinheiro. Só não se deve aplicar grandes quantias pelo risco geopolitico, não fosse o risco e certamente que muitos aplicariam muito mais capital. Temos que ver a China como os EUA nos anos 60. Quantos 100% subiu?!
Empirico
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Não quero ser desmancha prazeres, mas os PER por esses lados continuam relativamente baixos.
Das duas uma: ou há aldrabice que se farta nas contas das empresas ou há imenso potencial para subir ainda.
Das duas uma: ou há aldrabice que se farta nas contas das empresas ou há imenso potencial para subir ainda.
However elegant the method we should occasionally look at the results.
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O gráfico pode ser semelhante ao da bolha de 2000.
A situação é completamente diferente.
Na minha opinião a China é uma das melhores apostas no médio/longo prazo. Acredito e acho provável uma correcção no curto prazo mas acho que isso nem chegará a beliscar o potencial bull da bolsa chinesa.
A situação é completamente diferente.
Na minha opinião a China é uma das melhores apostas no médio/longo prazo. Acredito e acho provável uma correcção no curto prazo mas acho que isso nem chegará a beliscar o potencial bull da bolsa chinesa.
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Shanghai Stock Exchange - Réplica da bolha de 2000
Na China está-se a viver um fenómeno muito parecido ao da bolha especulativa de 99/2000, que fez de todos os taxistas e donas de casa, um analista de bolsa.
Em Portugal também sentimos isso e nas últimas semanas está a acontecer precisamente o mesmo na China.
Penso que este pequeno extracto do artigo resume tudo:
“When I go to the beauty salon, even the girls who give me a manicure are talking about stocks!” said Shirley Lei
Aqui fica o artigo:
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/30/world/asia/30china.html?hp&ex=1170219600&en=5e482dafe4ede723&ei=5094&partner=homepage
O gráfico também:
Em Portugal também sentimos isso e nas últimas semanas está a acontecer precisamente o mesmo na China.
Penso que este pequeno extracto do artigo resume tudo:
“When I go to the beauty salon, even the girls who give me a manicure are talking about stocks!” said Shirley Lei
Aqui fica o artigo:
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/30/world/asia/30china.html?hp&ex=1170219600&en=5e482dafe4ede723&ei=5094&partner=homepage
O gráfico também:
- Anexos
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