"Construção" de proposta de reforma da lei laboral vai para consulta "definitiva" de parceiros, anuncia ministra

[marcolopes]

Vitória democrata leva mercados para o vermelho
As principais praças da União Europeia encontram-se em terreno negativo, depois do Partido Democrata dos Estados Unidos ter obtido a maioria no Congresso norte-americano pela primeira vez desde 1994.

DE

Segundo os analistas, "com os EUA num impasse, será muito difícil para o Governo norte-americano fazer o que quer que seja. Os investidores não gostam quando existe instabilidade e incerteza. Ademais, os mercados subiram bastante nos últimos tempos, pelo que existe uma forte tendência para a realização de mais-valias".

A liderar as quedas encontram-se os títulos das empresas cujos resultados estão mais dependentes das vendas no mercado norte-americano, como é o caso da farmacêutica britânica GlaxoSmithKline, que cai 1,3% para os 1408 pence e a tecnológica francesa Alcatel, que recua 0,9% para os 10,27 euros.

Nota também para a queda da seguradora francesa Axa em 1,4% para os 30,32 euros, depois desta ter apresentado um aumento das vendas relativas ao terceiro trimestre de apenas 8%, inferiores às expectativas.

A maior queda pertence à britânica CSR, a qual fabrica os microchips usados pela finlandesa Nokia nos seus telemóveis, e que perde 14% para os 670 pence, depois de ter esperado que as suas receitas sejam bastante inferiores do que o esperado.

Pela positiva, destaque para a casa-mãe da Airbus, a EADS, que sobe 2,4% para os 21,16 euros, apesar desta ter apresentado um prejuízo inesperado no terceiro trimestre do ano devido aos atrasos nas entregas dos novos aviões Airbus A380.

Deste modo, às 12h36 o Mib-30 de Milão deslizava 0,22% para os 40 357,00 pontos, o Ibex-35 de Madrid desce 0,37% para os 14 006,00 pontos e o CAC-40 de Paris cai 0,43% para os 5414,16 pontos, enquanto que o FTSE-100 de Londres desce 0,47% para os 6214,60 pontos e o Dax Xetra de Frankfurt perde 0,60% para os 6323,77 pontos.

[Keyser Soze]

2 Estados por decidir, Montana e Virginia:


Montana ( 75% dos votos contados )

Rep 47,8%

Dem 49,7%




Virginia (99,8 contados )

Rep 49,3%

Dem 49,6%





O risco aqui é não se aceitarem os resultados e andarmos algumas semanas a contar votos....outra vez

[Keyser Soze]

Equity Strategy: as Democrats win the majority of House seats and the Senate still undecided, S&P 500 futures edged lower overnight and it's been a weakish session in Asia.

DAX indicated to open around 6335.

Total posted Q3 Net of 3.11B vs. 3.03 expected, EADS posted loss of 195M vs. 142.

[Keyser Soze]

Democratas ganham a House e o Senado continua em discussão.

Estar atento a 2 estados: Virginia e Missouri

os Democratas dizem que ganharam na Virginia mas os Republicanso já exigem recontagem de votos.....eheh


os mercados estavam à espera que os Democratas ganhassem a House mas manutenção do Senado na mão dos Republicanos

[Keyser Soze]

eu acrescentaria, nos winners: stem cell

Control of the Senate – the real horse race!

Most recent polls have pretty much determined that the House will be democratic. However the race for control of the Senate is seemingly tighter. Latest polls are showing a small favor for Republicans. New polls show rising public approval of the economy as a result of better than expected job creation, low unemployment, falling gas prices and a bullish stock market. The Dow soared over 100 points Monday on news of the Pew poll that shows the Republican comeback.

What does the Market expect?

The Equity market as a whole tend to rally following midterm election, at the moment it seems the market has a democratic House built into its expectations, though some highly-regulated sectors don't seem to have reacted. This is in particular the pharmaceutical sector, a strong point in the Democratic policy. This sector should endure more rules and regulations under a Democratic controlled congress.



5 sectors that should be affected if the result of tonight's election is a Democratic controlled congress:

Losers:

* Pharmaceuticals

As mentioned the Pharmaceutical sector should suffer from more rules and regulations from the Democrats forcing the pricing of over the counter products down.

* Oil and Gas

The Republican reign of the Congress has been good for energy firms. The American Stock Exchange Oil index has gained 53% since 2000. If we see the Democrats take control of the Congress, expect more regulation and a slowdown in the growth this industry has experienced lately.

* Defense/Military

The war on terror has very much been a republican issue, and has been a hot topic during this election. Do not expect defense budgets to be cut by a Democrat-controlled Congress. However take a look at an equity like "Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT US)" this stock has soared almost 400% since the Bush administration took control, a company like this seem very linked to the defense friendly politics, look out for this as a probable long term short as the Democrats gain control.

Winners:

* Alternative Energy

This sector should move inversely with the oil and gas industry, and as the Democrats have always had a soft spot for environment this sector has potential to really benefit from a Democratic controlled Congress, however if the Republicans maintain the Senate, do not expect a lot of volatility in this sector, for now.

* Government Sponsored Enterprises GSE (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac)

This sector could get a lift from a Democratic victory tonight, as democrats oppose the Republican plan to grab the housing-related GSE's. Moreover Democrats have proposed to cut in half the interest rate on federally subsidized student loans; they might attempt to pass such changes early 2007.

[Keyser Soze]

as eleições podem ser um "turning point" para o mercado accionista

até agora parece ter sido levado ao colo, já existem várias teorias de conspiração que a subida das acções, a descida do petróleo/gasolina, dados económicos "martelados" resultou de uma estratégia para beneficiar os republicanos nestas eleições e o Bush manter todo o poder

PS: já aqui critiquei várias "teorias da conspiração", mas uma coisa é puxar pelos futuros durante a noite ou alterar a composição de um index, outra é matar 3.000 pessoas....

Election Pits Anger at Bush Against Party Money, Turnout Edge

By Kristin Jensen and Laura Litvan

Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Americans vote today in an election that may produce a change of leadership and direction in Washington.

Concern about President George W. Bush's conduct of the war in Iraq and congressional scandals have put dozens of Republican House districts and eight Senate seats in jeopardy. With their control of both houses threatened, Republicans are counting on their larger campaign war chest and well-practiced ability to turn out voters.

``This election comes down to what is stronger: the Republican machine that has been built over the past two decades, or the outrage that exists about Iraq, corruption and the shrinking middle class,'' said Julian Zelizer, a Boston University history professor who studies Congress and politics.

As of Oct. 18, the close of the last pre-election reporting period, the three main Republican campaign committees had a cash edge over their Democratic counterparts of more than $17 million, according to Federal Election Commission records.

Republicans are also deploying their ``72-hour plan'' for turning out supporters, which party leaders have credited as a central element in their victories in 2002 and 2004. White House political adviser Karl Rove and other party strategists have said the expertise they developed in those campaigns may prove decisive again this time.

Democratic Control

Democrats need net gains of 15 seats in the 435-member House, and six seats in the 100-member Senate, to win majorities. They last controlled the House in 1994, and the Senate in 2002.

Democratic control of either chamber would open the door to investigations of Bush's administration by new committee chairmen with subpoena power and the ability to influence policy on everything from taxes to Iraq. Republican losses would also force the party ``to engage in some serious rethinking about its leadership, its ideas and its game plan for 2008,'' Zelizer said.

Final polls on the campaign produced divergent results, with some showing the Democratic advantage narrowing. A Nov. 1-4 Washington Post-ABC News poll found that 51 percent of likely voters favored Democrats in their districts, compared with 45 percent for Republicans. That was down from a 14-point margin two weeks ago. A Nov. 2-3 Newsweek poll found that Democrats still enjoyed a 16-point advantage over Republicans, compared with 18 points in a survey taken Oct. 26-27.

Takeover

The nonpartisan Rothenberg and Cook political newsletters both predicted a Democratic takeover of the House. Rothenberg forecast a gain of 30 to 36 House seats for the Democrats; the Cook report's Charlie Cook said he will be ``flabbergasted'' if the party doesn't pick up at least 20 seats.

The Senate outlook is murkier. Of the 10 most competitive of this year's 33 races, Democrats have the edge in trying to wrest away seats in Ohio and Pennsylvania, and a small advantage in retaining control of Maryland and New Jersey. Republicans are favored to hold Arizona and turn back a strong Democratic bid to claim an open Tennessee seat.

If those predictions hold true, Democrats would have to sweep the four most competitive races -- Republican-held seats in Missouri, Montana, Rhode Island and Virginia -- to gain control of the Senate.

`Moral Victory'

``It will be a moral victory if Republicans hold the Senate, and that's a big question mark,'' said Nathan Gonzales, the political editor for the Rothenberg report in Washington.

Unless there are a number of extremely close races, control of the House may be clear fairly early in the evening. Of the 35 most competitive districts, 22 -- 20 of them currently held by Republicans -- are in states where polls close by 8 p.m. Eastern Standard Time.

If the Democrats win most of those seats, the odds are good for a Democratic-controlled House in January. If Republicans win half or more, they may keep their majority in Congress. There's also the possibility that close races, or problems associated with new voting machines being used in many jurisdictions for the first time, may slow the counting or draw court challenges, potentially extending the uncertainty over control of Congress for days or weeks.

Indiana's Outcome

Bush-friendly states such as Indiana, where polls begin to close as early as 6 p.m. EST, will help tell the tale. Indiana gave Bush 60 percent of its votes two years ago and Republicans now hold seven of the state's nine House seats; this time, Republican Representatives Chris Chocola, John Hostettler and Mike Sodrel are all locked in toss-up contests there.

An early sign of how Democrats will fare in the Senate may come from Virginia, where polls close at 7 p.m. EST. Republican Senator George Allen is in a tight race against Democratic challenger Jim Webb, who served as Navy secretary under former President Ronald Reagan.

Historically, Senate and House elections are defined by the benefits of incumbency, with all but a handful of lawmakers on the ballot returning. Every dozen years or so, though, a wave of voter dissatisfaction breaks the pattern.

The question for Republicans, analysts say, is whether this year's wave will be as great as in 1974, when they suffered big losses in the wake of the Watergate scandal, or 1994, when they took control of the House for the first time in four decades.

Disgusted

``Is the public, or at least the swing voters, disgusted with Bush, Republican control, Iraq, the war on terrorism and the perceived general direction of the country?'' said David Schultz, a professor at Hamline University in St. Paul, Minnesota. ``If yes, look for big changes. If not, change will be muted.''

In 1994, Republicans picked up a net 52 House seats, and not a single incumbent lost. They also picked up 11 Senate seats, gaining a majority; all their incumbents won, and two Democratic incumbents were defeated.

Heading into 2006, analysts expected Democrats to knock off a few Republicans in both chambers, mainly because the party in control of the White House in the sixth year of a presidency historically incurs losses. The Cook report in January rated only 18 Republican House districts as competitive, and 10 held by Democrats. In the Senate, it rated six Republican and seven Democratic seats as competitive.

Shifting in the Spring

Things began to shift in the spring, and Democrats gained momentum in recent weeks amid a scandal over lewd messages that Florida Republican Representative Mark Foley sent to former congressional teenage pages. Foley resigned on Sept. 29, and the campaign in his district is now considered a tossup.

The list of the most competitive races, compiled by Bloomberg from independent experts, political-party spending and Democratic and Republican analysis, is now up to 35 seats, 33 held by Republicans. Another 30 seats are at least in play, and 27 of those are held by Republicans.

Among the most competitive seats is one being defended by Kentucky Representative Anne Northup. Representative Tom Reynolds, the chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, told reporters this fall that the race he planned to watch most closely tonight was Northup's, because she has managed to prevail in five tough campaigns.

If she does well, Republican losses may not be as deep as some fear, said Reynolds. ``If she doesn't, I suppose that could mean a long night for me,'' he said.

Now, Reynolds will probably be paying attention to his own returns first: His district in upstate New York moved onto most- competitive lists last month.

The following is a list of competitive House races compiled by Bloomberg, based on party spending, Democratic and Republican analysis and input from independent experts. The party affiliation is listed next to the incumbent's name: R for Republican and D for Democrat. In cases of open seats, the candidate for the party that held the seat most recently is listed.

MOST COMPETITIVE:
District Incumbent Opponent
Arizona-5 J.D. Hayworth (R) Harry Mitchell
Arizona-8 OPEN Randy Graf (R) Gabrielle Giffords
California-11 Richard Pombo (R) Jerry McNerney
Colorado-7 OPEN (Rick O'Donnell (R) Ed Perlmutter
Connecticut-2 Rob Simmons (R) Joe Courtney
Connecticut-4 Chris Shays (R) Diane Farrell
Connecticut-5 Nancy Johnson (R) Chris Murphy
Florida-13 OPEN Vern Buchanan (R) Christine Jennings
Florida-16 OPEN Joe Negron (R) Tim Mahoney
Florida-22 Clay Shaw (R) Ron Klein
Georgia-8 Jim Marshall (D) Mac Collins
Georgia-12 John Barrow (D) Max Burns
Illinois-6 OPEN Peter Roskam (R) Tammy Duckworth
Indiana-2 Chris Chocola (R) Joe Donnelly
Indiana-8 John Hostettler (R) Brad Ellsworth
Indiana-9 Mike Sodrel (R) Baron Hill
Iowa-1 OPEN Mike Whalen (R) Bruce Braley
Kentucky-3 Anne Northup (R) John Yarmuth
Minnesota-1 Gil Gutknecht (R) Tim Walz
Minnesota-6 OPEN Michele Bachmann (R) Patty Wetterling
New Hampshire-2 Charles Bass (R) Paul Hodes
New Mexico-1 Heather Wilson (R) Patricia Madrid
New York-20 John Sweeney (R) Kirsten Gillibrand
New York-24 OPEN Ray Meier (R) Michael Arcuri
New York-26 Tom Reynolds (R) Jack Davis
N. Carolina-11 Charles Taylor (R) Heath Shuler
Ohio-1 Steve Chabot (R) John Cranley
Ohio-15 Deborah Pryce (R) Mary Jo Kilroy
Ohio-18 OPEN Joy Padgett (R) Zack Space
Pennsylvania-6 Jim Gerlach (R) Lois Murphy
Pennsylvania-7 Curt Weldon (R) Joseph Sestak
Pennsylvania-8 Mike Fitzpatrick (R) Patrick Murphy
Pennsylvania-10 Donald Sherwood (R) Christopher Carney
Texas-22 OPEN Shelley Sekula-Gibbs(R) Nick Lampson
Wisconsin-8 OPEN John Gard (R) Steven Kagen

COMPETITIVE:
District Incumbent Opponent
Arizona-1 Rick Renzi (R) Ellen Simon
California-4 John Doolittle (R) Charles Brown
California-50 Brian Bilbray (R) Francine Busby
Colorado-4 Marilyn Musgrave (R) Angie Paccione
Colorado-5 OPEN Doug Lamborn (R) Jay Fawcett
Idaho-1 OPEN Bill Sali (R) Larry Grant
Illinois-8 Melissa Bean (D) Dave McSweeney
Illinois-10 Mark Steven Kirk (R) Daniel Seals
Iowa-3 Leonard Boswell (D) Jeff Lamberti
Kansas-2 Jim Ryun (R) Nancy Boyda
Kentucky-4 Geoff Davis (R) Ken Lucas
Michigan-7 OPEN Tim Walberg (R) Sharon Marie
Renier
Nebraska-3 OPEN Adrian Smith (R) Scott Kleeb
Nevada-2 OPEN Dean Heller (R) Jill Derby
Nevada-3 Jon Porter (R) Tessa Hafen
New Hampshire-1 Jeb Bradley (R) Carol Shea-Porter
New Jersey-7 Mike Ferguson (R) Linda Stender
New York-3 Peter King (R) Dave Mejias
New York-19 Sue Kelly (R) John Hall
New York-25 James Walsh (R) Dan Maffei
New York-29 Randy Kuhl (R) Eric Massa
Ohio-2 Jean Schmidt (R) Victoria Wulsin
Ohio-12 Pat Tiberi (R) Robert Shamansky
Pennsylvania-4 Melissa Hart (R) Jason Altmire
Texas-23 Henry Bonilla (R) Ciro Rodriguez
Vermont** OPEN Peter Welch (D) Martha Rainville
Virginia-2 Thelma Drake (R) Phil Kellam
Virginia-10 Frank Wolf (R) Judy Feder
Washington-8 Dave Reichert (R) Darcy Burner
Wyoming Barbara Cubin (R) Gary Trauner

**Vermont's statewide district is currently represented by
Independent Bernie Sanders, who caucuses with the Democrats.


The following is a list of competitive Senate seats:

MOST COMPETITIVE:
State Incumbent Opponent
Missouri James Talent (R) Claire McCaskill
Montana Conrad Burns (R) Jon Tester
Rhode Island Lincoln Chafee (R) Sheldon Whitehouse
Virginia George Allen (R) James Webb

COMPETITIVE:
State Incumbent Opponent
Arizona Jon Kyl (R) Jim Pederson
Maryland OPEN Ben Cardin (D) Michael Steele
New Jersey Bob Menendez (D) Tom Kean Jr.
Ohio Mike DeWine (R) Sherrod Brown
Pennsylvania Rick Santorum (R) Bob Casey Jr.
Tennessee OPEN Bob Corker (R) Harold Ford Jr.

To contact the reporters on this story: Kristin Jensen in Washington kjensen@bloomberg.net Laura Litvan in Washington llitvan@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: November 7, 2006 00:03 EST

[japt]

Resolvi abrir este topico e saber o que vai acontecer quando o Sr Bush perder o congresso, os nossos amigos parecem que estão descançados, mas a minha opinião é que a inversão da tendência se irá
dar. Espero as vossas opiniões.