Ao minuto: Irão rejeita acordo de cessar-fogo. Trump considera proposta "significativa mas insuficiente"

[atomez]

Estava convencido que algo iria acontecer antes das eleições nos States... a famigerada "October Surprise"... mas afinal não.

Até o porta-aviões Enterprise saiu da zona, passou há dias aqui por Lisboa.

Mas por outro lado...

USS Boxer Strike Group, entered the Persian Gulf Thursday, Nov. 9, the largest US landing force to reach this water in a decade

The Boxer Expeditionary Strike Group (BOXESG) now in the US Fifth Fleet area headquartered in Bahrain, consists of Boxer (picture), Amphibious Squadron 5, the 15th Marine Expeditionary Unit (Seals), the Coast Guard cutter Midgett and Canadian frigate HMCS Ottawa, as well as the USS Dubuque, USS Comstock, the largest landing craft in the US Navy, USS Bunker Hill and the guided missile destroyers USS Benfold and USS Howard.

The Boxer Group has just come from joint maneuvers with the Indian navy in the Arabian Sea opposite the coast of Goa, including large-scale landing practices. The group’s commander, Capt. David Angood said that if “anything important happens in the real-world environment, the task force will deal with it in the most efficient manner.”

Military sources report that the arrival of Boxer in the Persian Gulf coincided with the USS Iwo Jima Expeditionary Strike Group’s passage through the Suez Canal on its way from the Gulf to the Mediterranean. It is the first time that a US naval strike force is accompanied by a coast guard unit. Its vessels are equipped and their crews trained for rapid rescue and aid missions to damaged ships and wounded crewmen. Their presence in the task force indicates that the Boxer strike group is prepared for Iranian attack by sea, air, submarine, sea-to-sea missiles or depth mines.

Uma vez é sorte (ou azar, depende da circunstância), duas é coincidência, três é uma tendência...

[atomez]

Iran test fires dozens of missiles after US Gulf exercise


The missiles tested include the Shahab-3 believed to have a maximum range of 1,242 miles (Fars News/Reuters)

Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards test-fired dozen of missiles today, including some that are capable of reaching Israeli and American forces in the Middle East, at the start of ten days of war games.

Iranian state run television announced that during the first hours of the military moves several kinds of short range missiles were also fired in the central desert area of Iran, as well as the long-range Shahab-3.

The tests came two days after US-led warships finished an exercise in the Gulf that Tehran described as "adventurist."

"We want to show our deterrent and defensive power to trans-regional enemies, and we hope they will understand the message of the manoeuvres," said General Yahya Rahim Safavi, the head of the Revolutionary Guards, in an apparent reference to the US and other Western powers.

The general said the 10-day manoeuvres, named "Great Prophet," would take place in the Gulf, the Sea of Oman and several provinces of the country. He did not specify how many troops were involved.

State television showed footage of a dozen types of missiles being fired from mobile launching pads. Television reports said the missiles were made by Iranian experts and demonstrated the country’s capability to meet its own military needs.

Shahab-3 missiles are capable of carrying a nuclear warhead and are believed to have a range of more than 2,000 kilometers (1,242 miles).

Among the other weapons tested was the Shahab-2, which has a cluster warhead that can send 1,400 bomblets at the same time, state-TV said. Solid-fuel Zalzal missiles also were launched, as were guided missiles such as Scud-B, Zolfaghar-73 and Z-3, it said.

The war games came as the UN Security Council considered sanctions on Iran over its nuclear programme, which Tehran says is purely geared at civilian use but that the US and other western powers fear could hide research on an atomic bomb.

Iran has said that the US-led six-nation drills this week in the region would not improve security in the Gulf waters, through which about 20 per cent of the world’s oil passes. It also called on Gulf nations to set up their own regional security arrangements.

The US-led drills focused on surveillance, with warships tracking a ship suspected of carrying components of illegal weapons. The nations that took part were Australia, Bahrain, Britain, France, Italy and the United States.

[atomez]

US aircraft carriers USS Eisenhower and USS Enterprise in the Red Sea off the Saudi Arabian coast

November 1, 2006

The nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Eisenhower, and its accompanying carrier strike group, passed through the Suez Canal on Monday, Oct. 30, and arrived in the Red Sea on Tuesday, Oct. 31.

Military sources report that the USS Eisenhower is at sea off the Saudi Arabian coast, together with another aircraft carrier, the USS Enterprise. The presence of the two US aircraft carriers, and their accompanying strike groups, in a body of water as small as the Red Sea is an extraordinary development.

So far there have been no indications that the USS Eisenhower arrived to replace the USS Enterprise.

US Intelligence director John Negroponte also is in the region. He was in Saudi Arabia over the weekend and in Cairo on Tuesday, and is due to arrive in Israel on Wednesday, Nov. 1.

With the arrival of the USS Eisenhower in the region, there are now three US aircraft carriers in the Persion Gulf and surrounding waters, including the USS Iwo Jima. Accompanying the USS Eisenhower are the guided-missile cruiser USS Anzio, the guided-missile destroyers USS Ramage and USS Mason and the nuclear-powered fast-attack submarine USS Newport.

Military sources report that a fourth US aircraft carrier, the USS Boxer, will arrive on the scene by the beginning of next week, together with its carrier strike group. The USS Boxer is currently taking part in joint US-Indian naval maneuvers, dubbed Malabar ’06, which include the landing of marines on beaches.

[Keyser Soze]

ehehe

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) -- Iran will offer cash incentives to travel agencies to encourage Western tourists to visit the country, giving a premium for Americans, the official Islamic Republic News Agency reported.

The Islamic republic's political leadership has been trying to reach out to ordinary Americans to show that a standoff over Iran's nuclear ambitions is with the Bush administration -- not U.S. citizens.

The latest initiative comes as the United Nations Security Council deliberates a draft resolution that would impose sanctions on Iran for its disputed nuclear program.

"Iran's tourism department will pay $20 per person to those who attract European or American tourists to the country," the agency on Tuesday quoted Mohammed Sharif Malakzadeh, deputy head of the department, as saying.

Visitors from other countries would earn travel agents $10 per tourist, Malakzadeh said.

http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/11/ ... index.html

[atomez]

No mínimo mantenham-se atentos...

Five navies led by US begin naval exercise Sunday, Oct. 29, off Persian Gulf Iranian coast
Iran’s armed forces on high alert, its air force chief replaced

The Western navies are to practice tactics for blocking the smuggling of nuclear weapons and components. Iran’s armed forces responded at once by declaring a high state of preparedness and branding the war games “adventurous.” Their alert encompassed the joint naval units of the military and Revolutionary Guards in the Persian Gulf, while the Revolutionary Guards, the Iranian army, navy and air force were placed on “yellow” alert, one level short of full war.

Also Sunday, supreme ruler Ayatollah Ali Khamenei replaced Iran’s air force chief, Karim Qavami with Brig Gen Capt Ahmad Miqani, on the recommendation of the Revolutionary Guards commander.

In September, the outgoing air force chief, a US-trained pilot, commanded Iran’s military maneuvers which tested a new air defense system, fighter planes and laser-guided bombs. Iran sources report that Khamenei did not approve of Qavami’s admiration of America’s military capabilities – especially the US air force’s advanced aircraft and equipment. He was wont to speak out at general staff meetings in favor of procuring a new air fleet the better to stand up to a possible US attack. His successor follows the supreme ruler unquestioningly and has complete faith in the ability of Iran and its air force to match the US and its air might.

[atomez]

ATENÇÃO!

É para a semana que vem.

http://us.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/europe/10/27/friday/index.html

WMD interdiction exercise set for next week in Persian Gulf

(CNN) -- Ships, aircraft and specialized teams from the United States and two dozen other countries will conduct a interdiction training exercise in the Persian Gulf next week as part of an international initiative to prevent the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, the State Department announced Friday.

Countries participating in the Proliferation Security Initiative will conduct their first-ever exercise in the Persian Gulf Monday and Tuesday -- at a time when the international community has been increasing pressure on Iran to curtail its nuclear program.

Iran, which sits on the gulf, is not one of the participants, but five other gulf countries -- Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates -- will take part, the State Department said.

[atomez]

The American Iwo Jima Expeditionary Strike Group joins US build-up opposite Iran

October 20, 2006, 12:37 PM (GMT+02:00)

Tuesday, Oct. 17, the Iwo Jima Expeditionary Strike Group steamed into the Persian Gulf to join the US naval, air and marine concentration piling up opposite Iran’s shores. It consists of the amphibious transport dock USS Nashville, the guided-missile destroyers USS Cole and USS Bulkeley, the guided-missile cruiser USS Philippine Sea, the attack submarine USS Albuquerque, and the dock landing ship USS Whidbey Island.

The Iwo Jima group is now cruising 60 km from Kuwait off Iran’s coast. As reported two weeks ago, three US naval task forces will be in place opposite Iran in the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea by October 21. The other two are the USS Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group and the USS Enterprise Strike Group.

[Rui12ld]

No sul do Libano há muito mais que populações Xiitas, há populações sunitas e cristãs, aliás diga-se que houve aldeias cristãs na recente invasão israelita que não foram alvo de incursão. Falar do que não se sabe ...

Um grupo politico/terrorista como o Hezbollah surgiu do nada. Essa é boa
As armas e os ocúlos de visão nocturna capturados por Israel aos militantes do Hezbollah não deixam marcas para duvída da sua proveniência. Aliás nem sei o que se dicute se é o próprio Hezbollah a adimitir a ajuda da Síria e do Irão.

Se de facto a população xiita for o hezbollah temos um problema (mas não o é pela totalidade) pois como poderá Israel conviver nas suas fronteiras com o Hezbollah? A teimosia da não devolução dos soldados + as constantes provocações não auguram nada de bom.
Israel terá de intervir novamente (eu sugeri uma ocupação do Sul do Libano), e espero que deta vez os governos aliados lhe dêm apoio nem que seja moral.

Abraço

[amsf]

o Hezbollah voltar o para o Sul do Libano?

Mas eles são o sul do Libano, a população Xiita!!!

O Libano criado pelo Irão? E porque não pela Síria já agora?

[Camisa Roxa]

O hezbollah é o Irão... O Líbano foi 1 país criado pelo Irão para atacar Israel sem que pudessem acusar directamente o Irão.

O Irão providencia a maior parte do orçamento anual de 100 milhões usd do Hezbollah (a siria também é um dos financiadores) e utiliza esse $ em armas e em providenciar cuidados primários à população do líbano (hospitais, escolas etc.) para garantir o seu apoio, utilizando essa população como escudo humano contra hipotéticas retaliações israelitas

[atomez]

October 12, 2006, 4:35 PM (GMT+02:00)

The naval exercise to be held by US, Bahrain and allies later this month brings a massive concentration of American naval, air and marine might to the Persian Gulf

US officials said the exercise starting Oct. 31 will practice interdicting ships carrying weapons of mass destruction and missiles.

US naval, air and marine forces are massing in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman and eastern Mediterranean opposite Lebanon and Syria. The big USS Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group (picture) arrives by Oct. 21. Facing these are Iranian Revolutionary Guards naval, air and marine units together with the Iranian armed forces on full war preparedness.

The US announcement came as the US and other powers discussed sanctions on North Korea, including searching its ships following Monday’s nuclear test. It followed shortly after they also agreed on a Security Council session next week to impose sanctions on Iran.

The US spokesman said the exercise, in which Bahrain, Kuwait, France, Britain, Canada and others will take part, will demonstrate “our resolve and readiness to act” against nuclear proliferation. South Korea will be an observer. Clearly the Bush administration has more forceful “repercussions” in mind for Iran than diplomacy.

Iran will no doubt respond to the demonstrative exercise, the massing of US forces around its shores and the threat of UN sanctions by a counter-stroke that raises tensions in the region and involves Iraq and/or the countries on Israel’s border – Lebanon and Syria.

[Keyser Soze]

Mas o Hezbollah não voltára ao sul do Libáno posteriormente? Ou a força internacional irá lá ficar ad eternum?

A transformação do sul do Líbano numa terra de nínguem, controlada por Israel parece-me a melhor solução.

a ocupação foi o que foi feito em 82 e que acabou por dar origem ao Hezbollah... e Israel acabou por retirar anos mais tarde

a manutenção de Israel no Sul do Libano seria mais um foco de insegurança para Israel a médio e longo prazo

as forças internacionais que ocupem o território terão que estar fortemente armadas e prontas a enfrentar o Hezbollah ( fala-se da França, da Alemanha, da Turquia)

em simultâneo há que exercer pressões diplomáticas sobre a Siria para impedir a entrada de armas

[Rui12ld]

gradualmente estão a ser criadas as condições para Israel tranferir o controle para um conjunto de forças internacionais que impeçam o rearmamento e controle do Sul por parte do Hezbollah

Mas o Hezbollah não voltára ao sul do Libáno posteriormente? Ou a força internacional irá lá ficar ad eternum?

A transformação do sul do Líbano numa terra de nínguem, controlada por Israel parece-me a melhor solução.

[Keyser Soze]

dúvido que seja uma boa solução

a ocupação da parte Sul do Líbano por israel revelou-se um atoleiro, foi por isso que acabaram por sair

não creio que estejam com muita vontade de cair no mesmo erro

eles agora estão a fazer o trabalho que as tropas da ONU lá estacionadas não fizeram: desarmar o Hezbollah

gradualmente estão a ser criadas as condições para Israel tranferir o controle para um conjunto de forças internacionais que impeçam o rearmamento e controle do Sul por parte do Hezbollah

a médio e longo prazo será tb a melhor solução para o Libano


a Síria não quer guerra com Israel, eles têm consciência que as suas forças armadas são inferiores e sairiam derrotadas, neste imbróglio eles são apenas os intermediários, o verdadeiro instigador é o Irão.

os Sirios parecem-me mt mais pragmáticos e o instinto de sobrevivência sobrepõe-se ao fanatismo

no Irão parece passar-se o contrário

um ataque convencional por parte de Israel apenas agravaria a situação: é improvável que consigam eliminar o programa nuclear e conduziriam a uma radicalizão e união da sociedade iraniana

o uso de armas nucleares por Israel não é uma opção para um ataque preventivo

[Rui12ld]

Gostei do artigo!

A hipótese de um ataque a Síria e ao Irão parecem cada vez mais realidades proxímas. Nenhum dos 2 condenam os ataques a Israel, e incitam os mesmos por meios indirectos.

Creio que Israel deveria começar a considerar a hipótese de ocupar o Sul do Líbano permanentemente tal como faz com os montes Golã. Aliás estas zonas tampão são muito eficazes, tal como aconteceu com a Síria o Líbano iria retrair-se nos ataques que faz a Israel (sim disse bem o Líbano anda a atacar Israel).

Abraço

[atomez]

Oh meus amigozes, detesto ter que vos dizer isto mas uma guerra contra o Irão é não só inevitável como eminente.

Isso vai ter consequências extremamente sérias. Considerem-se avisados.

FOR THE SECOND TIME in the long history of the Middle East conflict, an enemy of Israel has effectively said: We do not care what you do.

Hezbollah — in choosing not to return the two soldiers it seized on July 12, and in its bombardment of Israel — has declared that it does not care if its war-making leads Israel to attack Lebanon's cities, ruin that country's economy and kill its people. What matters most is inflicting damage on Israel, weakening its morale and goading it to a level of destruction that will incite the world's wrath. The Palestinians said as much with their second intifada and their suicide bombings. But this is different because Hezbollah's daily rainfall of rockets in Israel portends an intolerable military assault without end.

What can Israel do — what could any country do? — with such an enemy? Except for a desperate Saddam Hussein during the Persian Gulf War, other countries and armies that would have liked to destroy Israel did not target Israeli cities because they knew that Israel would intensely bomb Cairo, Amman or Damascus. Israel had deterrence. Had an enemy dared such an attack, Israel could have compelled it to stop by inflicting massive damage. With Hezbollah — and with Hamas as well — Israel's ability to deter attacks or to compel them to stop has been lost.

The third strategic means of dealing with an enemy — making a genuine peace — has not been possible because Hezbollah and Hamas are expressly committed to Israel's destruction. They see any cessation of hostilities as an interlude before further attack.

So Israel has adopted the fourth strategic possibility: to devastate its dangerous foe, which also would restore deterrence. Yet Israel has discovered that against combatants who look like civilians and whose rockets are hidden everywhere, it must fight longer and occupy and destroy much more of Lebanon than it may deem moral, wise or feasible. Even a future international force in southern Lebanon — the possibility of which is highly uncertain — may be incapable of thwarting Hezbollah and would still leave northern Israel in Hezbollah's rocket range.

What strategies remain? No. 5 is intolerable: living with ongoing, and probably increasing, rocket attacks into northern Israel and beyond. Hezbollah's leader, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, promises that "there are many cities in the center [of Israel] which will be targeted in the phase of 'beyond Haifa.' "

The sixth option is to compel Hezbollah's suppliers and patrons — Syria and Iran — to end the terror. Neither country wishes a war with militarily superior Israel (Syria's saber rattling notwithstanding). If every Hezbollah missile into Israel produced Israeli retaliation against Syria, and possibly Iran (including its nuclear production sites), Syria and Iran would be forced to make Hezbollah stop. Obviously, this is a last-ditch option. It would escalate the conflict and increase international pressure on Israel to desist.

All of Israel's strategic choices are bad or ineffective or undesirable. And yet this last option would be the most likely to reestablish the deterrence critical to Israel's long-term survival — and to peace in the region — by demonstrating Israel's enduring power to compel an end of attacks. And it might prevent still more massive devastation of Lebanon.

Make no mistake: Israel is fighting for its life. It faces a historically new kind of fanatical foe, political Islam, which combines three characteristics: a political-religious ideology calling for its enemies' annihilation; indifference to, even the celebration of, its own people's death (because martyrs are rewarded with a place in heaven); and virtually unstoppable technology (missiles) and techniques (suicide bombing) of terror.

The political Islamists are emboldened by their newfound power. As Nasrallah has boasted, "When were 2 million Israelis forced to become displaced, or to stay in bomb shelters for more than 18 days?" And the danger will escalate a thousandfold if Iran, the epicenter of political Islam and Hezbollah's master, achieves its own invulnerability with nuclear weapons, so that it too can launch rocket and other attacks against its many targets. Iran's former president and current power broker, Hashemi Rafsanjani, spoke candidly in 2001: "The use of even one nuclear bomb inside Israel will destroy everything," he said, although it would harm the Islamic world. "It is not irrational," he went on, "to contemplate such an eventuality."

A nuclear Iran, sharing Hezbollah's and Hamas' enmity for Israel's very existence, is a foe with a million times the wealth and destructive might to found, fund and supply many more Hezbollahs against many more enemies, including the hated West.

Israel's political Islamic enemies are studying and rejoicing over the new geostrategic situation. These totalitarians' ultimate targets — all "infidels," especially in America and in Europe — should study it as well, be sobered and realize that Israel, in fighting this war in its self-defense, to reestablish a geostrategic balance, and for its long-term survival, is ultimately fighting for them as well.