Mega plano orçamental foi promulgado por Trump

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A pergunta que se impõe é :

"the only way is up, no matters what ?"

Cumps
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[Ulisses Pereira]

"Looking Forward to One More Terrific Year"

By James J. Cramer
12/26/2003 08:02 AM EST


"I've spent a lot of time lately trying to find flies on the bull story. I want some flies, need some flies, after the run we've had. I want to say that tech's a joke, that it has run on nothing, that China's only helping the commodity makers, that the auto rally is a short squeeze and that the homebuilders are in their final innings.

But I can't.


I want to pronounce the Smokestack Seven overbought and overloved, but are they really when the Treasury Secretary comes on "Kudlow & Cramer" and absurdly stands by a strong-dollar policy when the covert policy must be to blow the dollar to smithereens, or they certainly would have intervened?

I want to say that the drug stocks can't rally when a dozen states are allowing Canadian drug importation, but in 2006, they can gouge the government's eyes out with price hikes and the government won't even blink.

I want to be like Barron's and pick on the stocks that are up 300% and 400% but weren't they at absurdly low levels to begin with because everyone left them for dead and they didn't die?

I want to worry about political risk, but the nation is totally centrist, and anyone who doesn't appeal to the center on both foreign and domestic policy post-9/11 won't win a state. Saddam's capture makes it even tougher to fight the 50-state sweep for Bush regardless of who the Democratic candidate is.

I want to be more fearful of the Federal Reserve but I have studied 1994, the bulls' worst nightmare of a Fed, and I have come back appeased (more on that later).

So, I keep coming back to the unholy, seemingly unrigorous thought that we have still one more terrific year ahead of us.

Believe me, after my call of Dow 10,000 from the depths of the exquisite moment, I would just as soon say, "Who the heck cares? Go pick stocks. Good ones go up, bad ones go down."

Of course, that, while true, is completely unhelpful. The backdrop of the averages matters, matters severely, and I think that if you have a view of them, you can make much more money than if you don't.

Which leads me to conclude that I would be shocked -- unless the Fed raised several hundred basis points -- shocked, if we weren't up another 10% to 15% in the Dow and S&P 500 and yes, the same if not better in the Nazz.

And if the Fed does raise rates by several hundred basis points?


We'll finish flat for the year.

With the probabilities ranging from worst case flat to likely case up 10% to 15%, I once again will find myself buying weakness for most sectors and staying long through much of the year, even as I think we'll hit the highs before we hit the fall selling season.

In a column on Friday, I will give you an in-depth look at the Dow's best case and a snapshot of 1994 so you know what the worst case would look like. "

(in www.realmoney.com)