“Contas equilibradas não significa superávite”

[Surfer]

However, we are not shorting... We are buying Stage 1 stocks/holders/funds in Communications and Broadband.

This market would confuse anybody... There is utterly no question that the Dow Jones Industrial average is overbought, -that's the obvious part. Overbought can become more overbought, witness 94'-2000 where the Dow Jones went up almost triple.



2000/2001/2002 -were great to be short... now comes 2003 not so good. While waiting for the mkt to cave in we missed the melt up in the internets over the last 9 months where stocks like AMAZON went up some 400%



Also where Yahoo went up from 15 to 45.



And beloved Cisco, the number one stock in the 1990's up some 90,000% went from 13-24 in this same period



The point is that the mkt set itself up and while waiting we missed out on some realy spectacular moves... If you look at the charts you will clearly see the transition up thru the moving averages and the stocks in this group clearly moving into stage 1 advances... -very powerful...

I don't point this out at this point to put salt into wounds nor make anybody feel bad... But to illustrate and offer some hope that we don't miss this type of move again.

The Communications Sector appears to be one of the Nasdaq sectors that is bottoming. (Shown below is a composite of the sector)



You can see the collapse... then the apathy period and now, -the breakout up thru the moving averages... The communications sector is now in stage 1. We can ignore this fact and wait for the market to fall, -which I believe inevitably it will, -and perhaps quite profoundly.
Or we can capitalize on the here and now. My vote would be to buy the communications sector as I feel the probabilities of growing capital in the next 6-8 months are greater in this sector than waiting for the market to cave... I believe at some point we will be right, -I cannot tell from what Dow point or what time frame...

We are left with the same dilemma as when we recognized the bottom in the internets some 9 months ago. -We failed to act then... I don't believe it would be good to fail to act now. In my opinion the communications sector looks positioned to move higher, -maybe substantially.

By: Damon Vickers