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zecatreca Escreveu:Joao-D Escreveu:Também estou a notar alguma dificuldade do mercado em subir. Mas por enquanto é só isso. (Se) descer inferior a 1385 acho que pode ter uma correcção superior às anteriores.
O principal valor está nos 1355. Se o quebra, vamos ter um Verão vermelho.
O volume baixo, pelo que tenho presenciado é sinal de subidas...
Só espero que esta semana, tenha mais volatilidade que a anterior
Daí o adágio..."never short a dull market".
Edit: já agora, estava a olhar para o gráfico de 2h do ES e ainda não vislumbro divergências. O VIX continua bem baixo mas ainda não seguiu a regra do Zeca. Parece estar a haver uma consolidação (eventual acumulação antes de teste de máximos).
Vamos esperando.
Editado pela última vez por rg7803 em 13/8/2012 19:16, num total de 1 vez.
“Buy high, sell higher...”.
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- Mensagens: 4262
- Registado: 1/5/2008 23:09
- Localização: Almada.
.America’s Energy Seen Adding 3.6 Million Jobs Along With 3% GDP
By Asjylyn Loder - Aug 13, 2012
Print QUEUEQ..On the eastern bank of the Mississippi River, about an hour upstream from New Orleans, the outline of Nucor Corp. (NUE)’s new $750 million iron-processing plant is rising between fields of sugar cane and sweet gum trees.
Surveying the facility from the road, Michael Eades, president of Ascension Economic Development Corp., says it’s part of a wave of investment lured by low natural gas prices to this stretch of Louisiana’s industrial riverfront. Companies such as Westlake Chemical Corp., Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. and Methanex Corp. (MX) have projects in the works. Ormet (ORMT) Corp. reopened an alumina refinery last year, bringing back 250 jobs.
Enlarge image
Energy-Driven Investment Boom Aids U.S. Manufacturing Comeback Daniel Acker/Bloomberg
A surge in U.S. natural gas development has spurred $226 billion in spending plans on pipelines, storage, processing facilities and power plants, most slated for the next five years.
A surge in U.S. natural gas development has spurred $226 billion in spending plans on pipelines, storage, processing facilities and power plants, most slated for the next five years. Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg
Enlarge image
Energy-Driven Investment Boom Aids U.S. Manufacturing Comeback Matthew Staver/Bloomberg
U.S. natural gas production will expand to a record this year, and oil output swelled in July to its highest point since 1999.
U.S. natural gas production will expand to a record this year, and oil output swelled in July to its highest point since 1999. Photographer: Matthew Staver/Bloomberg
Enlarge image
Energy-Driven Investment Boom Aids U.S. Manufacturing Comeback Daniel Acker/Bloomberg
U.S. natural gas production will expand to a record this year, and oil output swelled in July to its highest point since 1999.
U.S. natural gas production will expand to a record this year, and oil output swelled in July to its highest point since 1999. Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg
Sponsored Links
Buy a link
.“We’re just seeing an incredible amount of activity,” said Eades, who tallied $1.1 billion in new projects last year in Ascension Parish alone, where his private, nonprofit group promotes development. He expects twice that this year.
It’s a harbinger of a nationwide investment boom spreading from the oil fields of North Dakota and the Marcellus gas shale in Pennsylvania to power plants in California and chemical refiners in Texas. A surge in U.S. natural gas development has spurred $226 billion in spending plans on pipelines, storage, processing facilities and power plants, most slated for the next five years, according to Industrial Info Resources, a market- intelligence provider in Sugar Land, Texas.
U.S. energy supplies have been transformed in less than a decade, driven by advances in technology, and the economic implications are only beginning to be understood. U.S. natural gas production will expand to a record this year and oil output swelled in July to its highest point since 1999. Citigroup Inc. (C) estimated in a March report that a “reindustrialization” of America could add as many as 3.6 million jobs by 2020 and increase the gross domestic product by as much as 3 percent.
Narrow Gains
So far, the economic benefits have been confined to states such as Louisiana, Texas and North Dakota, while the national jobless rate has stayed above 8 percent for 42 straight months in the wake of the worst recession in seven decades.
“It is definitely a positive for the economy, but one can overstate how much of a positive,” said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist for JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) Oil and gas production account for about 1 percent of gross domestic product, and will have a limited impact on the country’s unemployment, he said.
Even so, there are signs the economic gains have begun to expand beyond the oil and gas fields and that the promise of abundant, low-cost fuels will give a competitive edge to industries from steel, aluminum and automobiles to fertilizers and chemicals.
Jobs Debate
That would provide a boost to a U.S. manufacturing sector that has lost 5.12 million jobs since 2001 and become the focus of a national debate over how to revive factory employment. Manufacturers have added 532,000 jobs since January 2010 as the economy started to recover, Bureau of Labor Statistics data show.
The expansion of fossil-fuel production -- coupled with a weak economy and increased energy efficiency -- has helped the U.S. pare its crude oil imports by 17 percent since the 2005 peak, Energy Department data show. Imports in 2011 accounted for 45 percent of U.S. consumption of crude and refined products. The department predicts the share will fall to 39 percent next year, which would be the first time since 1991 that imports dropped below 40 percent of demand.
“The impact on the global petroleum market and the natural gas markets is really palpable and wildly underestimated,” said Ed Morse, head of commodities research at Citigroup Global Markets Inc. who led the team that wrote the March report. The economic activity that comes with higher energy production will boost incomes, increase consumption and create wealth, he said.
Cheaper Energy
Increased production and swelling domestic stockpiles have helped make U.S. energy cheaper than in other countries. U.S. oil futures have slid to a $20 a barrel discount to London- traded Brent, a benchmark for more than half the world’s oil. Natural gas in the U.S. fell to $1.902 per million British thermal units in April, the lowest in a decade. The fuel costs almost three times as much in the U.K. and more than five times as much in Japan.
“This is one of those rare opportunities that every country looks for and few ever get,” said Philip Verleger, a former director of the office of energy policy at the U.S. Treasury Department and founder of PKVerleger LLC, a consulting firm in Carbondale, Colorado. “This abundance of energy gives us an opportunity to rebuild our economy.”
Cycle of Growth
Verleger envisages a virtuous cycle of economic growth as producers, flush with cash from oil and gas sales, will buy more equipment and put more people to work, while low-cost energy puts cash back in consumers’ pockets, stimulating spending.
Companies plan to invest $138 billion in more than 700 natural gas storage, pipeline and processing plants in the U.S., and another $88 billion in more than 500 gas-fired power generation units, according to Joseph Govreau, vice president and editor-in-chief of Industrial Info Resources. The firm tracks projects from planning stages through construction.
The IIR estimates don’t include petrochemical and fertilizer projects, which are undergoing a revival because of the low cost of natural gas feedstock.
Cairo-based Orascom Construction Industries (OCIC) is investing $250 million restarting an ammonia and methanol plant in Beaumont, Texas. Another Orascom subsidiary may build a $1.3 billion fertilizer plant in Iowa that would create as many as 2,000 construction jobs and 165 permanent positions, according to Tina Hoffman, a spokeswoman for the Iowa Economic Development Authority.
‘Massive’ Investment
“The amount of petrochemical investment that the U.S. will have in the next 10 to 15 years is massive,” said Omar Darwazah, head of investor relations for Orascom. “Given the shale gas boom, gas prices in the U.S. are arguably more competitive than the Middle East, because you don’t have the political risk.”
Increased U.S. production has already wrought significant shifts across the energy industry. Plans for gas-import terminals, thought indispensable five years ago, have been shelved in favor of export facilities such as Cheniere Energy Inc. (LNG)’s $10 billion plant in Louisiana’s Sabine Pass.
Enterprise Product Partners LP and Enbridge Inc. this year reversed the Seaway pipeline that once carried oil imports from the Gulf Coast to a storage hub in Oklahoma. Now, it carries crude produced in states such as North Dakota and Colorado to refiners in Texas and Louisiana, which process and, increasingly, export it. East Coast refiners, dependent on more expensive tankers of foreign crude, are working to develop rail links and pipelines to bring oil east.
Environmental Concern
Environmentalists say cheap fossil fuels come with a high price, including air pollution that can cause respiratory difficulties, and drinking water contamination from hydrofracturing, or fracking, in which a high-pressure stream of fluid is shot underground to crack rock and release hydrocarbons. Lower gas and oil costs have also undermined investment in power sources that produce less carbon dioxide, including wind, solar and nuclear, raising concern that climate change will accelerate.
“The state is just overjoyed at all the jobs that will be coming to Louisiana without looking at the health side effects and environmental side effects,” said Darryl Malek-Wiley, a community organizer at the Sierra Club in New Orleans.
The report from Citigroup -- “North America, the New Middle East?” -- estimated that the U.S. could become the world’s largest producer of crude and natural gas liquids such as propane by 2020, overtaking Russia and Saudi Arabia.
China Consumption
U.S. natural gas prices may eventually rise if planned export terminals increase demand for the fuel, putting domestic consumers in competition with foreign markets willing to pay more. China will drive global gas consumption higher by 2.7 percent a year through 2017, the International Energy Agency said in a June report. The U.S. already competes with global consumers for refined products such as gasoline and diesel.
Still, the promised bounty from lower prices can be seen along the highways and back roads of Ascension Parish, in the heart of Louisiana’s plantation country.
In November, cheap natural gas prices convinced Hannibal, Ohio-based Ormet to reopen the refinery that makes alumina, used in aluminum production. The facility was shuttered in 2006, said Chief Financial Officer James Riley.
In nearby St. James Parish, Nucor has begun construction on the plant that will process iron using natural gas. The product will supply its steel mills, said Katherine Miller, a spokeswoman for Charlotte, North Carolina-based Nucor. Five hundred people will be needed to build the plant and 150 will be employed there once completed, she said.
Doubling Workforce
Eades gestures toward construction trailers parked on the site where Vancouver-based Methanex said in July that it will reconstruct a plant moved from Chile, white, football field- sized domes that will store Nucor’s iron ore, and chutes that carry bauxite over the Mississippi River levy into Ormet’s rust- colored plant.
All this construction means new jobs. MMR Group, a Baton Rouge-based industry contractor, will double its workforce of 2,800 in the next two years, said Grady Saucier, vice president of marketing.
A five-minute drive from MMR’s offices in Ascension Parish, Associated Builders & Contractors, a trade group, can’t keep up with demand for its training program for would-be electricians, pipefitters and welders. Steven Allen graduated from the school’s pipefitting certification program this year. Now, he earns as much as $28 an hour working in petrochemical plants, up from the $9 an hour he made as a construction laborer.
Family Struggle
“Being a laborer and a helper isn’t going to cut it when you’ve got a family to support,” said Allen, 30, a father of 6- year-old twins.
Smaller businesses, including valve manufacturers, electric-motor companies and rental lots packed with heavy equipment, also feed off the boom, Eades says. One company, Rain for Rent, provides fake downpours seen on movie sets -- as well as storage tanks and water pumps to the petrochemical industry.
Closer to Interstate 10, which connects New Orleans to Baton Rouge, a TownePlace Suites by Marriott and a Holiday Inn Express have opened in the past year next to an outlet mall and a Cabela’s outfitters store, all benefiting from the influx of new workers to the region, Eades said.
“If you have gas prices in the U.S. that are substantially cheaper than Europe or Asia, it has to have a substantial impact,” said James Brick, an analyst in Houston with Wood Mackenzie, an energy and metals researcher. “The question we’re now asking is, ‘Is this the tip of the iceberg?’”
To contact the reporter on this story: Asjylyn Loder in New York at aloder@bloomberg.net.
By Asjylyn Loder - Aug 13, 2012
Print QUEUEQ..On the eastern bank of the Mississippi River, about an hour upstream from New Orleans, the outline of Nucor Corp. (NUE)’s new $750 million iron-processing plant is rising between fields of sugar cane and sweet gum trees.
Surveying the facility from the road, Michael Eades, president of Ascension Economic Development Corp., says it’s part of a wave of investment lured by low natural gas prices to this stretch of Louisiana’s industrial riverfront. Companies such as Westlake Chemical Corp., Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. and Methanex Corp. (MX) have projects in the works. Ormet (ORMT) Corp. reopened an alumina refinery last year, bringing back 250 jobs.
Enlarge image
Energy-Driven Investment Boom Aids U.S. Manufacturing Comeback Daniel Acker/Bloomberg
A surge in U.S. natural gas development has spurred $226 billion in spending plans on pipelines, storage, processing facilities and power plants, most slated for the next five years.
A surge in U.S. natural gas development has spurred $226 billion in spending plans on pipelines, storage, processing facilities and power plants, most slated for the next five years. Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg
Enlarge image
Energy-Driven Investment Boom Aids U.S. Manufacturing Comeback Matthew Staver/Bloomberg
U.S. natural gas production will expand to a record this year, and oil output swelled in July to its highest point since 1999.
U.S. natural gas production will expand to a record this year, and oil output swelled in July to its highest point since 1999. Photographer: Matthew Staver/Bloomberg
Enlarge image
Energy-Driven Investment Boom Aids U.S. Manufacturing Comeback Daniel Acker/Bloomberg
U.S. natural gas production will expand to a record this year, and oil output swelled in July to its highest point since 1999.
U.S. natural gas production will expand to a record this year, and oil output swelled in July to its highest point since 1999. Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg
Sponsored Links
Buy a link
.“We’re just seeing an incredible amount of activity,” said Eades, who tallied $1.1 billion in new projects last year in Ascension Parish alone, where his private, nonprofit group promotes development. He expects twice that this year.
It’s a harbinger of a nationwide investment boom spreading from the oil fields of North Dakota and the Marcellus gas shale in Pennsylvania to power plants in California and chemical refiners in Texas. A surge in U.S. natural gas development has spurred $226 billion in spending plans on pipelines, storage, processing facilities and power plants, most slated for the next five years, according to Industrial Info Resources, a market- intelligence provider in Sugar Land, Texas.
U.S. energy supplies have been transformed in less than a decade, driven by advances in technology, and the economic implications are only beginning to be understood. U.S. natural gas production will expand to a record this year and oil output swelled in July to its highest point since 1999. Citigroup Inc. (C) estimated in a March report that a “reindustrialization” of America could add as many as 3.6 million jobs by 2020 and increase the gross domestic product by as much as 3 percent.
Narrow Gains
So far, the economic benefits have been confined to states such as Louisiana, Texas and North Dakota, while the national jobless rate has stayed above 8 percent for 42 straight months in the wake of the worst recession in seven decades.
“It is definitely a positive for the economy, but one can overstate how much of a positive,” said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist for JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) Oil and gas production account for about 1 percent of gross domestic product, and will have a limited impact on the country’s unemployment, he said.
Even so, there are signs the economic gains have begun to expand beyond the oil and gas fields and that the promise of abundant, low-cost fuels will give a competitive edge to industries from steel, aluminum and automobiles to fertilizers and chemicals.
Jobs Debate
That would provide a boost to a U.S. manufacturing sector that has lost 5.12 million jobs since 2001 and become the focus of a national debate over how to revive factory employment. Manufacturers have added 532,000 jobs since January 2010 as the economy started to recover, Bureau of Labor Statistics data show.
The expansion of fossil-fuel production -- coupled with a weak economy and increased energy efficiency -- has helped the U.S. pare its crude oil imports by 17 percent since the 2005 peak, Energy Department data show. Imports in 2011 accounted for 45 percent of U.S. consumption of crude and refined products. The department predicts the share will fall to 39 percent next year, which would be the first time since 1991 that imports dropped below 40 percent of demand.
“The impact on the global petroleum market and the natural gas markets is really palpable and wildly underestimated,” said Ed Morse, head of commodities research at Citigroup Global Markets Inc. who led the team that wrote the March report. The economic activity that comes with higher energy production will boost incomes, increase consumption and create wealth, he said.
Cheaper Energy
Increased production and swelling domestic stockpiles have helped make U.S. energy cheaper than in other countries. U.S. oil futures have slid to a $20 a barrel discount to London- traded Brent, a benchmark for more than half the world’s oil. Natural gas in the U.S. fell to $1.902 per million British thermal units in April, the lowest in a decade. The fuel costs almost three times as much in the U.K. and more than five times as much in Japan.
“This is one of those rare opportunities that every country looks for and few ever get,” said Philip Verleger, a former director of the office of energy policy at the U.S. Treasury Department and founder of PKVerleger LLC, a consulting firm in Carbondale, Colorado. “This abundance of energy gives us an opportunity to rebuild our economy.”
Cycle of Growth
Verleger envisages a virtuous cycle of economic growth as producers, flush with cash from oil and gas sales, will buy more equipment and put more people to work, while low-cost energy puts cash back in consumers’ pockets, stimulating spending.
Companies plan to invest $138 billion in more than 700 natural gas storage, pipeline and processing plants in the U.S., and another $88 billion in more than 500 gas-fired power generation units, according to Joseph Govreau, vice president and editor-in-chief of Industrial Info Resources. The firm tracks projects from planning stages through construction.
The IIR estimates don’t include petrochemical and fertilizer projects, which are undergoing a revival because of the low cost of natural gas feedstock.
Cairo-based Orascom Construction Industries (OCIC) is investing $250 million restarting an ammonia and methanol plant in Beaumont, Texas. Another Orascom subsidiary may build a $1.3 billion fertilizer plant in Iowa that would create as many as 2,000 construction jobs and 165 permanent positions, according to Tina Hoffman, a spokeswoman for the Iowa Economic Development Authority.
‘Massive’ Investment
“The amount of petrochemical investment that the U.S. will have in the next 10 to 15 years is massive,” said Omar Darwazah, head of investor relations for Orascom. “Given the shale gas boom, gas prices in the U.S. are arguably more competitive than the Middle East, because you don’t have the political risk.”
Increased U.S. production has already wrought significant shifts across the energy industry. Plans for gas-import terminals, thought indispensable five years ago, have been shelved in favor of export facilities such as Cheniere Energy Inc. (LNG)’s $10 billion plant in Louisiana’s Sabine Pass.
Enterprise Product Partners LP and Enbridge Inc. this year reversed the Seaway pipeline that once carried oil imports from the Gulf Coast to a storage hub in Oklahoma. Now, it carries crude produced in states such as North Dakota and Colorado to refiners in Texas and Louisiana, which process and, increasingly, export it. East Coast refiners, dependent on more expensive tankers of foreign crude, are working to develop rail links and pipelines to bring oil east.
Environmental Concern
Environmentalists say cheap fossil fuels come with a high price, including air pollution that can cause respiratory difficulties, and drinking water contamination from hydrofracturing, or fracking, in which a high-pressure stream of fluid is shot underground to crack rock and release hydrocarbons. Lower gas and oil costs have also undermined investment in power sources that produce less carbon dioxide, including wind, solar and nuclear, raising concern that climate change will accelerate.
“The state is just overjoyed at all the jobs that will be coming to Louisiana without looking at the health side effects and environmental side effects,” said Darryl Malek-Wiley, a community organizer at the Sierra Club in New Orleans.
The report from Citigroup -- “North America, the New Middle East?” -- estimated that the U.S. could become the world’s largest producer of crude and natural gas liquids such as propane by 2020, overtaking Russia and Saudi Arabia.
China Consumption
U.S. natural gas prices may eventually rise if planned export terminals increase demand for the fuel, putting domestic consumers in competition with foreign markets willing to pay more. China will drive global gas consumption higher by 2.7 percent a year through 2017, the International Energy Agency said in a June report. The U.S. already competes with global consumers for refined products such as gasoline and diesel.
Still, the promised bounty from lower prices can be seen along the highways and back roads of Ascension Parish, in the heart of Louisiana’s plantation country.
In November, cheap natural gas prices convinced Hannibal, Ohio-based Ormet to reopen the refinery that makes alumina, used in aluminum production. The facility was shuttered in 2006, said Chief Financial Officer James Riley.
In nearby St. James Parish, Nucor has begun construction on the plant that will process iron using natural gas. The product will supply its steel mills, said Katherine Miller, a spokeswoman for Charlotte, North Carolina-based Nucor. Five hundred people will be needed to build the plant and 150 will be employed there once completed, she said.
Doubling Workforce
Eades gestures toward construction trailers parked on the site where Vancouver-based Methanex said in July that it will reconstruct a plant moved from Chile, white, football field- sized domes that will store Nucor’s iron ore, and chutes that carry bauxite over the Mississippi River levy into Ormet’s rust- colored plant.
All this construction means new jobs. MMR Group, a Baton Rouge-based industry contractor, will double its workforce of 2,800 in the next two years, said Grady Saucier, vice president of marketing.
A five-minute drive from MMR’s offices in Ascension Parish, Associated Builders & Contractors, a trade group, can’t keep up with demand for its training program for would-be electricians, pipefitters and welders. Steven Allen graduated from the school’s pipefitting certification program this year. Now, he earns as much as $28 an hour working in petrochemical plants, up from the $9 an hour he made as a construction laborer.
Family Struggle
“Being a laborer and a helper isn’t going to cut it when you’ve got a family to support,” said Allen, 30, a father of 6- year-old twins.
Smaller businesses, including valve manufacturers, electric-motor companies and rental lots packed with heavy equipment, also feed off the boom, Eades says. One company, Rain for Rent, provides fake downpours seen on movie sets -- as well as storage tanks and water pumps to the petrochemical industry.
Closer to Interstate 10, which connects New Orleans to Baton Rouge, a TownePlace Suites by Marriott and a Holiday Inn Express have opened in the past year next to an outlet mall and a Cabela’s outfitters store, all benefiting from the influx of new workers to the region, Eades said.
“If you have gas prices in the U.S. that are substantially cheaper than Europe or Asia, it has to have a substantial impact,” said James Brick, an analyst in Houston with Wood Mackenzie, an energy and metals researcher. “The question we’re now asking is, ‘Is this the tip of the iceberg?’”
To contact the reporter on this story: Asjylyn Loder in New York at aloder@bloomberg.net.
- Mensagens: 134
- Registado: 22/2/2008 12:02
Joao-D Escreveu:Também estou a notar alguma dificuldade do mercado em subir. Mas por enquanto é só isso. (Se) descer inferior a 1385 acho que pode ter uma correcção superior às anteriores.
O principal valor está nos 1355. Se o quebra, vamos ter um Verão vermelho.
O volume baixo, pelo que tenho presenciado é sinal de subidas...
Só espero que esta semana, tenha mais volatilidade que a anterior
-
- Mensagens: 5593
- Registado: 29/11/2007 10:54
- Localização: Aveiro
Joao-D Escreveu:Também estou a notar alguma dificuldade do mercado em subir. Mas por enquanto é só isso. (Se) descer inferior a 1385 acho que pode ter uma correcção superior às anteriores.
As dificuldades de subir ou descer tem sido +/- iguais, daí o mercado estar a andar de lado.
Não me admira que possa vir a acontecer um movimento muito semelhante ao ocorrido entre jan/março. A zona de suporte está nos 1390 a resistencia nos 1420. E o euro? Se o euro for aos 1.2650/1.27 que acontece ao sp?
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- Mensagens: 7238
- Registado: 3/3/2006 11:17
- Localização: Mundo Rural
[quote="SergioS12"][
Para falar verdade o meu "feeling" é que vá lá acima antes de cair. Vou ver o que vai acontecer com o leilão de amanhã da Grécia ...
Por outro lado o índice não tem tido força para superar os 1406, pelo que, caso surja uma notícia com efeito negativo nos mercados, poderá efectuar um reversão e depois perde-se o "entrada".
Também poderá estar a consolidar para uma subida ...
Se fosse fácil, todos ficariam ricos rapidamente
Agradeço as intervenções do Zecatreca e J Alves
E agora vou almoçar que, como dizia o meu avô, a barriga não culpa dos maus negócios.
Sérgio
Para falar verdade o meu "feeling" é que vá lá acima antes de cair. Vou ver o que vai acontecer com o leilão de amanhã da Grécia ...
Por outro lado o índice não tem tido força para superar os 1406, pelo que, caso surja uma notícia com efeito negativo nos mercados, poderá efectuar um reversão e depois perde-se o "entrada".
Também poderá estar a consolidar para uma subida ...
Se fosse fácil, todos ficariam ricos rapidamente
Agradeço as intervenções do Zecatreca e J Alves
E agora vou almoçar que, como dizia o meu avô, a barriga não culpa dos maus negócios.
Sérgio
- Anexos
-
- 2012_08_10_SP.png (27.9 KiB) Visualizado 4409 vezes
-
- Mensagens: 444
- Registado: 10/8/2011 1:14
- Localização: 16
zecatreca Escreveu:
Tudo depende dos teus objetivos, stops e percentagem exposta.
Pelo que li entraste a 1397. Com 7dias a aguentar essa posição com esta lateralização....já tinha fechado e tinha tentado entrar acima dos 1403 (visto que parece ser um retangulo!triangulo???).
Sinceramente acho que estou inclinado para o esticão ate aos 1420.
Cumprimentos
Como o daytrader é muito stressante, faço uma análise de vários indicadores, com ajuda preciosa dos vários "caldeireiros", e tomo decisão de investimento. Ultimamente tem sido com base na análise dos canais, optando por venda (curto) no topo do canal.
A decisão de fecho de posição é normalmente 1% (ganho ou perda), como tenho possibilidade de ir acompanhando não tenho os stops activos, permitindo assim ir um pouco mais além, pois no passado ocorreram fecho de posição que depois tiveram um reversão que acabei por não aproveitar e com uma perda na posição. Bem sei que não é muito "ortodoxa" esta postura em bolsa ...
Para falar verdade o meu "feeling" é que vá lá acima antes de cair. Vou ver o que vai acontecer com o leilão de amanhã da Grécia ...
J Alves Escreveu:Sergio estás curto e tens explicado as razões. E para quem lê os teus comentários isso é importante.
Já a parte das quantidades para a AT tanto faz ser 1 cfd como 1 milhão
Abraço
Tem toda a razão, não voltarei a colocar quantidade.
Obrigado
Sérgio
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- Mensagens: 444
- Registado: 10/8/2011 1:14
- Localização: 16
SergioS12 Escreveu:zecatreca Escreveu:Independentemente de uma ou outra situação eis o que penso:
1- Se acontecer o que está a azul, é provável que o vix vá sair fora da BB inferior, ativando assim A LEI DO VIX. Se assim for, espero uma queda entre os 50 a 100pontos.
2- Por outro lado, se acontecer o que está a cinzento, vai ser apenas para testar a zona dos 1386. Nessa altura temos de analisar melhor a dita divergência que existe nos cfd´s.
Cumprimentos
Caro Zecatreca,
Espero que as férias tenham sido boas e venha inspirado.
Qualquer das suas previsões são interessante para mim, pois tenho uma posição curta (100 cfd) no SPX
BN
Sérgio
Tudo depende dos teus objetivos, stops e percentagem exposta.
Pelo que li entraste a 1397. Com 7dias a aguentar essa posição com esta lateralização....já tinha fechado e tinha tentado entrar acima dos 1403 (visto que parece ser um retangulo!triangulo???).
Sinceramente acho que estou inclinado para o esticão ate aos 1420.
Cumprimentos
-
- Mensagens: 5593
- Registado: 29/11/2007 10:54
- Localização: Aveiro
SergioS12 Escreveu:zecatreca Escreveu:Independentemente de uma ou outra situação eis o que penso:
1- Se acontecer o que está a azul, é provável que o vix vá sair fora da BB inferior, ativando assim A LEI DO VIX. Se assim for, espero uma queda entre os 50 a 100pontos.
2- Por outro lado, se acontecer o que está a cinzento, vai ser apenas para testar a zona dos 1386. Nessa altura temos de analisar melhor a dita divergência que existe nos cfd´s.
Cumprimentos
Caro Zecatreca,
Espero que as férias tenham sido boas e venha inspirado.
Qualquer das suas previsões são interessante para mim, pois tenho uma posição curta (100 cfd) no SPX
BN
Sérgio
Sergio estás curto e tens explicado as razões. E para quem lê os teus comentários isso é importante.
Já a parte das quantidades para a AT tanto faz ser 1 cfd como 1 milhão
Abraço
-
- Mensagens: 7238
- Registado: 3/3/2006 11:17
- Localização: Mundo Rural
zecatreca Escreveu:Independentemente de uma ou outra situação eis o que penso:
1- Se acontecer o que está a azul, é provável que o vix vá sair fora da BB inferior, ativando assim A LEI DO VIX. Se assim for, espero uma queda entre os 50 a 100pontos.
2- Por outro lado, se acontecer o que está a cinzento, vai ser apenas para testar a zona dos 1386. Nessa altura temos de analisar melhor a dita divergência que existe nos cfd´s.
Cumprimentos
Caro Zecatreca,
Espero que as férias tenham sido boas e venha inspirado.
Qualquer das suas previsões são interessante para mim, pois tenho uma posição curta (100 cfd) no SPX
, embora não esteja fácil pois já vai com 7 dias sem cair e o DAX também não dá sinais de fraqueza.
BN
Sérgio
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Independentemente de uma ou outra situação eis o que penso:
1- Se acontecer o que está a azul, é provável que o vix vá sair fora da BB inferior, ativando assim A LEI DO VIX. Se assim for, espero uma queda entre os 50 a 100pontos.
2- Por outro lado, se acontecer o que está a cinzento, vai ser apenas para testar a zona dos 1386. Nessa altura temos de analisar melhor a dita divergência que existe nos cfd´s.
Cumprimentos
1- Se acontecer o que está a azul, é provável que o vix vá sair fora da BB inferior, ativando assim A LEI DO VIX. Se assim for, espero uma queda entre os 50 a 100pontos.
2- Por outro lado, se acontecer o que está a cinzento, vai ser apenas para testar a zona dos 1386. Nessa altura temos de analisar melhor a dita divergência que existe nos cfd´s.
Cumprimentos
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- sp 13-8-2012.jpg (72.53 KiB) Visualizado 4646 vezes
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Em termos de curto prazo o indice fechou a semana acima da linha de tendência descendente de médio-prazo, o que lhe abre excelentes perspectivas para testar os máximos anuais nas próximas sessões. Numa base técnica do gráfico diário, o indice não apresenta divergências negativas, apenas temos o estocástico sobre aquecido. O volume desta semana não foi significativo, mas como estamos num periodo de férias não considero um facto importante para ter em conta. O Índice de Força Relativa no gráfico diário mostra que o indice ainda tem espaço de subida antes de entrar em território overbought. O próximo nível de resistência significativa encontra-se nos maxs de Março e o próximo nível de suporte é encontrado na MA9 junto à LTD nos 1390.
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AC Investor Blog
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Análises Técnicas de activos cotados em Wall Street. Os artigos do AC Investor podem também ser encontrados diariamente nos portais financeiros, Daily Markets, Benzinga, Minyanville, Solar Feeds e Wall Street Pit, sendo editor e contribuidor. Segue-me também no Twitter : http://twitter.com/#!/ACInvestorBlog e subscreve a minha newsletter.
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Análises Técnicas de activos cotados em Wall Street. Os artigos do AC Investor podem também ser encontrados diariamente nos portais financeiros, Daily Markets, Benzinga, Minyanville, Solar Feeds e Wall Street Pit, sendo editor e contribuidor. Segue-me também no Twitter : http://twitter.com/#!/ACInvestorBlog e subscreve a minha newsletter.
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Divergências negativas quandos os preços fazem novos máximos mas os indicadores não conseguem fazer novos máximos.(neste caso falamos de linhas nos topos)
Divergências positivas quando os preços fazem novos mínimos mas os indicadores não(neste caso traçamos linhas nos fundos)
Abraços.
Divergências positivas quando os preços fazem novos mínimos mas os indicadores não(neste caso traçamos linhas nos fundos)
Abraços.
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rastaboll Escreveu:Sergio neste caso em que tentas encontrar uma divergência negativa deves traçar algo deste género.
Desculpa ter apagado e acrescentado linhas no teu gráfico.
De modo algum.
Já agora, porque fazes as linhas nos topos e não fazes nos fundos?
O "caldeireiro" Zecatreca" tem na página 147 por baixo. Apenas conseguir copiar o gráfico, mas pretendia adicionar (citar) o post. errrrr, não percebo nada de informática
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rastaboll Escreveu:No horário a pequena divergência já não esta ativa.
No das 4H também há uma pequena divergência que pela minha forma de olhar para elas já foi aonde tinha que ir.
Ps-As divergências são traçadas unindo topos nos preços com topos nos indicadores,ou fundos com fundos.
Abraços e BN.
Caro Rastaboll,
São "os meus olhos a quererem ver"
Agora a sério, de facto não sabia esse pormenor: topos preço com topos nos indicadores; fundos dos preços com fundos dos indicadores.
Obrigado pela correcção.
Aqui vai outro gráfico em TF 4 horas e horário... .
PS: como fazem para levar um gráfico da pessoa que se está a citar?
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- 2012_08_10_19h05m_SP500_Hora_2.jpg (81.84 KiB) Visualizado 3035 vezes
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KAM Escreveu:Sérgio,
Se reparares no gráfico horário que colocaste, o SP tem suporte nos 1392 e 1394.
Uma hipótese seria deixar vir testar um dos suportes e entrares longo.
Estratégia para daytrade.
Bons trades
Já subiu 3 pontos ... ainda nada preocupante ..., os touros estão fortes, ou os ursos fracos
Embora o meu "target" fosse os 1380, correspondente a um pullback até inferior aos anteriores, mas não está fácil de atingir.
O daytrader é muito stressante ..., o meu último trade foi no Ibex e durou 1,5 meses. Também durou tanto tempo porque era um posição curta e foi difícil de vir ao 6.000 pontos.
Neste trade do SPX, como estava quase no topo do canal, e alguns indicadores quase em sobrecompra, decidi entrar curto. Já teve um ganho ganho potencial de 500 euros e perda potencial de 650 euros. Como o objectivo é 1%, ou seja 1.000 euros, vou aguardar. Com perda ou ganho de 1k fecho a posição.
Esta resistência dos +/- 1402 já tem 4 dias, e se não sobe ... deverá descer, pelo menos é o que espero.
Caso os touros estejam a tomar "força", fecho com perda, e outros trades positivos virão.
BN
Sérgio
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No horário a pequena divergência já não esta ativa.
No das 4H também há uma pequena divergência que pela minha forma de olhar para elas já foi aonde tinha que ir.
Ps-As divergências são traçadas unindo topos nos preços com topos nos indicadores,ou fundos com fundos.
Abraços e BN.
No das 4H também há uma pequena divergência que pela minha forma de olhar para elas já foi aonde tinha que ir.
Ps-As divergências são traçadas unindo topos nos preços com topos nos indicadores,ou fundos com fundos.
Abraços e BN.
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- US SPX 500 (50 Mini Contract) (-).png99.png (24.85 KiB) Visualizado 3255 vezes
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SergioS12 Escreveu:SergioS12 Escreveu:Como quase todos os indicadores estão em sobrecompra, basta um notícia má para vir por aí abaixo
Vamos acompanhando.
Grande luta entre touros/ursos, com vantagem para aqueles.
Embora o DAX já comece a ter velas vermelhas (ainda que pequenas) no SPX ainda são verdes. Grande força dos touros.
Como os pressupostos (possível reversão) se mantêm, mantenho o trade.
g.a
Tenho acompanhado o SPX, e nos pensamentos verifico uma questão que é "o que eu os meus olhos querem ver e aquilo que é o mercado"
Naquilo que os meus olhos querem ver, apresento abaixo, aquilo que me parece ser um divergência negativa.
O pessoal da AT está todo de férias ... que acham?
Neste momento o trade está neutro, que dizem do ditado "mais vale 1 pássaro na mão que dois a voar", pois, nos útimos 3 dias com a abertura dos States, o SPX sobe estou a ficar indeciso ...
Grafico em TF horário
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SergioS12 Escreveu:Como quase todos os indicadores estão em sobrecompra, basta um notícia má para vir por aí abaixo
Vamos acompanhando.
Grande luta entre touros/ursos, com vantagem para aqueles.
Embora o DAX já comece a ter velas vermelhas (ainda que pequenas) no SPX ainda são verdes. Grande força dos touros.
Como os pressupostos (possível reversão) se mantêm, mantenho o trade.
g.a
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paubo Escreveu:Apesar de estar a fazer uma pequena cunha, com target nos 1390, pode estar num movimento de falso break ao retângulo com 55 pontos de projeção (formado neste último mês).
Afinal não foi falso break e 50% da projeção foi alcançada ontem. Neste momento parece normal visitar a zoan dos 1390 ou mesmo um poco mais abaixo, os 1380, para ir a novos máximos.
No entanto, deixo um alerto: apesar de ser muito cedo poder referir alguma figura de inversão, um ressalto entro os 1390 e os +- 1400 pontos pode originar a formação de um segundo ombro e assim passar a existir um possível (pequeno) H&S.
Mas o caminho para novos máximos está certamente traçado...
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Novo blog agora com a colaboração do J Alves, Paubo e Zecatreca- http://portugueseteamtraders.blogspot.com/
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Boas noites.
Hoje só meto aqui este gráfico em que mostra ali uma resistência pelos 1406 pts...
A abrir a bollinger superior...
Não consigo perceber até onde irá esta subida.
Temos pelos 1397 pts o suporte.
Hoje só meto aqui este gráfico em que mostra ali uma resistência pelos 1406 pts...
A abrir a bollinger superior...
Não consigo perceber até onde irá esta subida.
Temos pelos 1397 pts o suporte.
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Como diz o cego, a ver vamos...
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