Mohan 10/12/03
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LOL ganda confusão. É tudo para hoje 10/12.
Obrigado pelo reparo Info.
Abraços,
Abraços,
Abraço,
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
-
- Mensagens: 3414
- Registado: 4/11/2002 23:16
A Data está errada. Deve ler-se Mohan 12/12/03 (eom)
Abraços,
Abraço,
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
-
- Mensagens: 3414
- Registado: 4/11/2002 23:16
Mohan 10/12/03
Sell Rallies today as we look for lower prices.
Trade Setup Summary for Tuesday, December 9, 2003:
No TCF Trade Setups due to FOMC meeting on Tuesday.
Recap of Tuesday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome to Wednesday's action.
Tuesday was a regularly scheduled FOMC meeting in regards to interest rates and we do not make Headline Calls or recommend any TCF trade setups on those days.
The market opened higher on Tuesday and then proceeded to sell off quickly. You can see the sell Market Force in the price movements lately but there is an underlying bullishness that appears ready to jump out perhaps after some lower pressure on the prices.
The Dow made it's stretch to 10,000 on Tuesday and some of you may recall my mentioning that about 2 weeks ago how there appeared to be some desire for the market to work it's way up there. Well, there we are hitting 10,003 Tuesday but without higher futures prices backing up the move. This could be tied to the rollover to the March contract coming up on Thursday also.
Overall, as I have been mentioning, we are seeing certain odd things occuring in relation to the more regular flow of the High Five and price movements. We just have to adapt, follow our precision TCF setups and make some dough$ this month regardless of the oddities or the extra time off. Santa will still be coming down that chimney and those milk and cookies we leave for him can get expensive.
Today's Call & Briefing:
We want to look to Sell Rallies today in accordance with our Headline Call and the Market Force indicators.
There is a chance that we could see a phenomena of prices pulling back strongly the day before "Contract Rollover" in a bullish end of the year rally environment. I cannot prove it but it appears when this happens that there is a vested interest to get those prices somewhat lower as the rollover begins into the March's. Let's see if this phenomena will occur again.
You can see from Tuesday's action that the price pressure was once again to the downside but support has been coming in regularly. We are now BELOW THE 10 PIT BULL MOVING AVERAGE and thus will be looking to sell rallies as we hold below that. We are still on Crossover Alert and as such will be open to seeing what will happen. I am expecting at least for today that 1063.00 will provide some kind of resistance.
The overall way we want to play this month is to be ready right now to stay on the Sell side looking for the lower action going into Monday. If we get this sell off action over the next few days we are going to be prepared and watching for an aberration on that new Sell Mode that will get us bullish rolling into the traditional up move that tends to occur during the final weeks before the New Year.
I can't help but repeat to be careful this month as it's December... a very volatile month. EXPECT THAT WE WILL BE STANDING ASIDE IN TAKING SOME OF THE TCF SETUPS MORE THAN USUAL OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. This is due to seeing similar setups as Tuesday's where the B/D get's hit and sells off WITHOUT a Bear Ugly day. This is not a big deal...just typical oddball December trading. It is simply more prudent to be willing to preserve capital than be overly agressive this month. I am just offering this information for your own protection. January and on will see things coming back to a more "Normal" trading pattern (whatever the hell that is in the S&P500) with the more smooth flow early session 6-8-10 point type moves.
TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR: we are going to be on the lookout for a BreakOut attempt today that ideally we will be able to sell into. We would look for a high TRIN above .90 or higher to sell the B/O along with a weak NAZ being only up +10 or less.
If we see the Dow FLAT at the time of the BreakOut (flat being up +50 or less) and the NAZ (our nickname for the nasdaq composisite index) being up strongly over +12-15 with TRIN below .80 or less then be prepared to Buy the BreakOut. However, we want to try and stay on the Sell side of the market for today.
As we saw a BreakDown of the lows by 8 points on Tuesday we want to be cautious if we are seeing another one setup. The chances are if we get the BreakDown first of the Hour One pivots it is going to be a buy at a slightly lower level. Again, caution is heavily warranted if the TCF setup is not clear.
Be on the lookout again for a Bear Ugly day with some strong, bad news coming in off the opening that sends the markets reeling lower. We would look to sell the BreakDown if this occurs and hold short for a move 8 points below the lows. Not expected to occur today however.
Value Area: 1,062.90 - 1,070.50
You can see that we have the bottom of the VA right at the Pit Bull 10 Day moving average. So unless they open up in the VA we are going to see this price area be resistance to higher prices.
On a move above this area off the open then watch for a return to the 1068-70 area again where we would look to see if we could get short depending on the TCF setup.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,055.25 - 1,056.25
No trade at this pivot today. Watch the 1051.00 price (-4.25 stop/pivot) for support to come in.
IF WE GET DOWN HERE ON A LOWER OPENING AND EARLY DROP WE CAN BUY THIS ZONE IN CORRELATION WITH THE BREAKDOWN. IE: if we see that the B/D is the first Hour One Pivot hit and it is in this same price zone then we shall read that as double support to get long. This would be based ideally on a lower opening too.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,069.00 - 1,068.00
No trade at this target but as with the Sell Pivot target, correlate this price with the BreakOut.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,063.00
We have moved below the "Pit Bull" 10 day moving average but are still within the Crossover Alert distance. So the question will be if the market will now start to fully kick in to the new Sell Mode or will we find the Pit Bull to be a veritable "line in the sand" of support/resistance.
With the seasonal bullishness kicking in mid next week it will be fun and interesting to watch how it all plays out.
For now we want to consider the sell side as the primary Market Force for as long as prices can HOLD BELOW 1064.50 WE WILL BE IN A SHORT TERM DOWNTREND.
Pro Trader's Action
We are going to look to get on the sell side of the market today ideally with the BreakOut getting hit first of the Hour One pivots. We are not going to trade at the Buy/Sell Pivots but instead watch them for price support or resistance combining them with the Hour One pivots.
Let's see what the market hands us today but I want to mention again (and you will hear it more this month) that we are going to be very willing to STAND ASIDE on any trade setups where the criteria is not really clear for entering a trade. December is a good month for doing that.
As a heads up for this week we have ROLLOVER TO MARCH S&P500 FUTURES CONTRACT (AND E-MINI) COMING UP THURSDAY SO NO HEADLINE CALL OR TCF TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS. Friday being the day AFTER rollover and also a Friday we may also be standing aside on that day as well.
Next week the strong seasonal bullish period kicks in through the New Year (now this doesn't mean the market can't or won't drop...we are just talking historical statistics here) with the following week an extremely light trading week with Monday starting the Winter Solstace, Tuesday normal trading, Wednesday Christmas eve (Non trading day), Thursday closed for Christmas, and Friday Non Trading day with super light volume all week.
Usually the large trading bosses have taken next week and the following week off through New Years. Very often we see some really wild volatility during that period as positions are squarred for the New Year also. So in other words, December can be a very mixed bag with the seasonal tendency for large dips to get bought and come back while pushing higher.
Let's see if we can get on the sell side today if the TCF setup gives us that opportunity. All the best of luck and success in your trading. Mohan
Trade Setup Summary for Tuesday, December 9, 2003:
No TCF Trade Setups due to FOMC meeting on Tuesday.
Recap of Tuesday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome to Wednesday's action.
Tuesday was a regularly scheduled FOMC meeting in regards to interest rates and we do not make Headline Calls or recommend any TCF trade setups on those days.
The market opened higher on Tuesday and then proceeded to sell off quickly. You can see the sell Market Force in the price movements lately but there is an underlying bullishness that appears ready to jump out perhaps after some lower pressure on the prices.
The Dow made it's stretch to 10,000 on Tuesday and some of you may recall my mentioning that about 2 weeks ago how there appeared to be some desire for the market to work it's way up there. Well, there we are hitting 10,003 Tuesday but without higher futures prices backing up the move. This could be tied to the rollover to the March contract coming up on Thursday also.
Overall, as I have been mentioning, we are seeing certain odd things occuring in relation to the more regular flow of the High Five and price movements. We just have to adapt, follow our precision TCF setups and make some dough$ this month regardless of the oddities or the extra time off. Santa will still be coming down that chimney and those milk and cookies we leave for him can get expensive.
Today's Call & Briefing:
We want to look to Sell Rallies today in accordance with our Headline Call and the Market Force indicators.
There is a chance that we could see a phenomena of prices pulling back strongly the day before "Contract Rollover" in a bullish end of the year rally environment. I cannot prove it but it appears when this happens that there is a vested interest to get those prices somewhat lower as the rollover begins into the March's. Let's see if this phenomena will occur again.
You can see from Tuesday's action that the price pressure was once again to the downside but support has been coming in regularly. We are now BELOW THE 10 PIT BULL MOVING AVERAGE and thus will be looking to sell rallies as we hold below that. We are still on Crossover Alert and as such will be open to seeing what will happen. I am expecting at least for today that 1063.00 will provide some kind of resistance.
The overall way we want to play this month is to be ready right now to stay on the Sell side looking for the lower action going into Monday. If we get this sell off action over the next few days we are going to be prepared and watching for an aberration on that new Sell Mode that will get us bullish rolling into the traditional up move that tends to occur during the final weeks before the New Year.
I can't help but repeat to be careful this month as it's December... a very volatile month. EXPECT THAT WE WILL BE STANDING ASIDE IN TAKING SOME OF THE TCF SETUPS MORE THAN USUAL OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. This is due to seeing similar setups as Tuesday's where the B/D get's hit and sells off WITHOUT a Bear Ugly day. This is not a big deal...just typical oddball December trading. It is simply more prudent to be willing to preserve capital than be overly agressive this month. I am just offering this information for your own protection. January and on will see things coming back to a more "Normal" trading pattern (whatever the hell that is in the S&P500) with the more smooth flow early session 6-8-10 point type moves.
TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR: we are going to be on the lookout for a BreakOut attempt today that ideally we will be able to sell into. We would look for a high TRIN above .90 or higher to sell the B/O along with a weak NAZ being only up +10 or less.
If we see the Dow FLAT at the time of the BreakOut (flat being up +50 or less) and the NAZ (our nickname for the nasdaq composisite index) being up strongly over +12-15 with TRIN below .80 or less then be prepared to Buy the BreakOut. However, we want to try and stay on the Sell side of the market for today.
As we saw a BreakDown of the lows by 8 points on Tuesday we want to be cautious if we are seeing another one setup. The chances are if we get the BreakDown first of the Hour One pivots it is going to be a buy at a slightly lower level. Again, caution is heavily warranted if the TCF setup is not clear.
Be on the lookout again for a Bear Ugly day with some strong, bad news coming in off the opening that sends the markets reeling lower. We would look to sell the BreakDown if this occurs and hold short for a move 8 points below the lows. Not expected to occur today however.
Value Area: 1,062.90 - 1,070.50
You can see that we have the bottom of the VA right at the Pit Bull 10 Day moving average. So unless they open up in the VA we are going to see this price area be resistance to higher prices.
On a move above this area off the open then watch for a return to the 1068-70 area again where we would look to see if we could get short depending on the TCF setup.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,055.25 - 1,056.25
No trade at this pivot today. Watch the 1051.00 price (-4.25 stop/pivot) for support to come in.
IF WE GET DOWN HERE ON A LOWER OPENING AND EARLY DROP WE CAN BUY THIS ZONE IN CORRELATION WITH THE BREAKDOWN. IE: if we see that the B/D is the first Hour One Pivot hit and it is in this same price zone then we shall read that as double support to get long. This would be based ideally on a lower opening too.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,069.00 - 1,068.00
No trade at this target but as with the Sell Pivot target, correlate this price with the BreakOut.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,063.00
We have moved below the "Pit Bull" 10 day moving average but are still within the Crossover Alert distance. So the question will be if the market will now start to fully kick in to the new Sell Mode or will we find the Pit Bull to be a veritable "line in the sand" of support/resistance.
With the seasonal bullishness kicking in mid next week it will be fun and interesting to watch how it all plays out.
For now we want to consider the sell side as the primary Market Force for as long as prices can HOLD BELOW 1064.50 WE WILL BE IN A SHORT TERM DOWNTREND.
Pro Trader's Action
We are going to look to get on the sell side of the market today ideally with the BreakOut getting hit first of the Hour One pivots. We are not going to trade at the Buy/Sell Pivots but instead watch them for price support or resistance combining them with the Hour One pivots.
Let's see what the market hands us today but I want to mention again (and you will hear it more this month) that we are going to be very willing to STAND ASIDE on any trade setups where the criteria is not really clear for entering a trade. December is a good month for doing that.
As a heads up for this week we have ROLLOVER TO MARCH S&P500 FUTURES CONTRACT (AND E-MINI) COMING UP THURSDAY SO NO HEADLINE CALL OR TCF TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS. Friday being the day AFTER rollover and also a Friday we may also be standing aside on that day as well.
Next week the strong seasonal bullish period kicks in through the New Year (now this doesn't mean the market can't or won't drop...we are just talking historical statistics here) with the following week an extremely light trading week with Monday starting the Winter Solstace, Tuesday normal trading, Wednesday Christmas eve (Non trading day), Thursday closed for Christmas, and Friday Non Trading day with super light volume all week.
Usually the large trading bosses have taken next week and the following week off through New Years. Very often we see some really wild volatility during that period as positions are squarred for the New Year also. So in other words, December can be a very mixed bag with the seasonal tendency for large dips to get bought and come back while pushing higher.
Let's see if we can get on the sell side today if the TCF setup gives us that opportunity. All the best of luck and success in your trading. Mohan
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Abraço,
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
-
- Mensagens: 3414
- Registado: 4/11/2002 23:16
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