Serviços críticos do Estado ganham margem para comprar viaturas

[Cem]

Há quanto tempo!
Tive de andar aqui a varrer o site, tipo radar, para encontrar esta agulha de ouro no meio do palheiro, um palheiro muito rico, por sinal e não desfazendo muitas outras intervenções de excelente qualidade.
Com que então estás bull, conta-me dessas, mas digo-te que por enquanto vais no barco certo! O que o Gann te anda a melgar com esses quadranços...sim, já sei, não segues o Gann como sistema de negociação, mas está muito giro, gostei de ver aquelas previsões tão certeiras, são tão completas que parece impossível não deixar de reflectir uma grande dose de realismo. Mas pronto, eu equiparo muito estes squares e retracements do Gann ao Elliott, fazem muita lógica...mas só depois de acontecerem!
Grande abraço,
Cem

[lmm]

Desta vez não me esqueci de registar, lolito!

Arnie,
A questão do ciclo em que estamos é sempre algo paradoxal, pois só sabemos que estamos no ciclo "previsto" depois dele acontecer. Daí a importância do plano B, e até ás vezes o C

Guess for success ou assess to success?
Há pessoal com mais de 20 anos de experiência nestes temas e não estou ainda nem de perto nem de longe à altura deles, pelo que provavelmente o meu forecast não vai sair grande coisa.
Fico feliz saber que também tens tempo para estar a par destas coisas. Ainda vais chegar à conclusão que o estudo das barras esbarra ali

O plano B, prevê um top logo em Janeiro com low em Abril e range com uptrend bias até final do ano... vai na volta ainda vais fazer umas gandas compras!

D1as,
Bom blast from the past A eterna questão da confiança para atingir o objectivo que não se obtém sem a experiência.
Mas como adquirir experiência se a maior parte dos traders muda os parâmetros de 3 em 3 meses? Ou nem tem parâmetros, lol. Lá se vai a confiança... intuition rules!

Abraço,
lmm

[D1as]

"

Só fazendo trading de intuição pura é que isso não acontece - a intuição é o nível mais elevado que podes atingir para o trading ou qualquer outra actividade; é o chamado estar "in the zone", e que é a área onde estou neste momento a investir muito do meu tempo.

Oi lmm!

Q saudades que eu tinha de te ler! Era só pra mandar um abraço e deixar um copy/paste de um artigo teu com cerca de um ano e meio que volta e meia ainda o leio

Abraço!

"
Autor: lmm
Data: 06-20-02 23:55


"If I ever stopped to think about what happens after the ball
hits my hands, it might screw up the whole process."
- Joe Montana, three time Super Bowl Most Valuable Player

The process described by quarterback Joe Montana most certainly applies to trading. Joe's comments show that any conscious decision-making that enters into a fast paced activity usually ends up destroying the critical timing and minimizes the result. It seems once we have learned how to do something, and the mechanics of that activity become effortless and automated, we then begin to rely on a sense of timing as dictated by an inner voice and metronome. This sense has been described in various ways: impulse, instinct, gut feel, insight, sixth sense, inner wisdom. All of these words portray a direct knowing without the conscious use of reasoning. And it is this intuitive knowing that is essential to all fast paced activities that demand the cooperation of body, mind, and spirit.

You can't watch yourself fly. But you know when you're in sync with the machine,
so plugged into its instruments and controls that your mind and your hand
become the heart of its operating system. You can make that airplane talk,
and like a good horse, the machine knows when it's in competent hands.
You know what you can get away with. And you can be wrong only once.
- General Chuck Yeager,
First man to break Mach 1: the sound barrier.
Yeager: An Autobiography.

Markets do not allow us the luxury of time to think either. We don't have the time to give to our Conscious Self. In fast paced situations, analysis is paralysis.

We all possess an intuitive instinct, yet few of us hear it or trust it to the level we should for consistent and successful results. When you intuitively feel "this isn't the best time or market level" or your instinct yells "it's wrong, get out, get out!" follow your instinct. (However using this abusively as a crutch will be discussed at a later time.) If the instinctive response was wrong, know it can be cultivated and developed with extensive back-testing. You may be thinking: "but isn't paper trading a better way to test the profitability potential of your skills?" NO! Paper trading has none of the risk or inner demands associated with risking real capital. In a flight simulator you can be wrong more than once. Phooey to those who think they are market wizards after they show staggering profits from hypothetical paper trades. Even if you factor in excessive slippage and commission costs after the fact, they have never been battle tested. If you've not been tested under fire, you cannot determine or even guess how well you would do when the virtual game turns into the real battle against yourself and the markets. We lose money because of our inner vulnerabilities. Weakness within ourself will defeat us, not any external factor.

It is not the same to talk of bulls as to be in the bull ring.
-Spanish Proverb

Evil Knievel, the oft-fractured motorcycle daredevil, was also an avid golfer. He wanted to challenge Jack Nicklaus or Arnold Palmer to a unique $500,000 skins game. The winner would gain $500,000, but the stakes would be paid out of the loser's pocket. To Knievel, the definition of pressure was not the difference between winning $250,000 of the sponsor's prize money, or only winning $100,000 by missing a six-foot putt. Pressure was the difference between winning $500,000 and having to pay $500,000 out of your own pocket. Neither golf legend accepted the challenge. Maybe that's why they are golfers, not traders.

It takes a special mindset to be a trader. Japanese candlestick analysis has integrated terms reflecting military conditions that engulFED Japan for centuries. There are "night and morning attacks," the "advancing three soldiers chart pattern," and "counter attack lines," to name a few. Trading has long been recognized as requiring the same skills as those needed to be victorious in battle. The first futures market evolved in 17th century Japan out of the need of Samurai warlords to meet their future rice taxes. Hideyoshi Toyotomi was one of the three great generals attributed with bringing unification to Japan, ending "Sengoku Jidai," the 100-year period of war. Hideyoshi regarded Osaka as Japan's capital and promoted the development of commerce in that area. It has been told that warriors of Hideyoshi were positioned throughout his rice fields and on roof tops. these warriors would relay changing crop conditions from one field to the next until they reached Hideyoshi in Osaka.

It was one of Hideyoshi's war merchants that established the roots of the first centralized rice futures market. The merchant's extraordinary ability to establish the the price of rice formed a centralized market on his front lawn. What was the name of this first exceptional trader? Yodoya Keian. (Hard to ignore that the name Yodoya, when spoken by a Japanese, sounds to the Western ear like "Yoda"!)

Osaka life in the 1700s was centered around making a profit; however, the class structure within this environment was strictly managed by the Japanese Samurai warlords. Yodoya, first trader extraordinaire, became too wealthy for his social rank. In 1705, his entire fortune was confiscated. His demise could have been worse. In 1642, an attempt had been made to corner the rice market, and the punishment for those involved -- execution of their children, banishment of the merchants, and confiscation of all their wealth.

Despite such harsh penalties, trading grew and the Dojima Rice Exchange was formed from Yodoya's front yard in the late 1600s. Up until 1710, the Exchange dealt in actual rice, but at this time the Rice Exchange began to issue and accept warehouse receipts. these receipts for future delivery of rice to the warehouse were called rice coupons. By 1749, there were 30,000 bales of rice harvested throughout all of Japan, but the number of rice coupons traded would have corresponded to a total of 110,000 bales. Speculative trading had to account for most of the differential.

A modern day samurai, Taisen Deshimaru, wrote The Zen Way To The Martial Arts: A Japanese Master Reveals the Secrets of the Samurai. The author was born in Japan of an old samurai family and taught at the Soto Zen School until his death in 1982. He himself trained under the Great Master Kodo Sawaki. In Master Deshimaru's book, on page 35, there is an exchange between a student and Master Deshimaru. This excerpt shows that the outcome for any conflict will ultimately be determined by how well we have trained our minds to be attentive.

Student: Last year in Kyoto I watch a contest between two kendo masters who were about eighty years old. they stood face to face, sword in hand, sword-tip against sword-tip, without moving, absolutely without moving, for five minutes. And at the end of five minutes the referee declared the match a tie, kiki wake.

Master Deshimaru; Yes. When you move, you show your weak points. Where young men would have worn themselves out in fierce thrusts and unorganized rushing about, where more mature men would have called into play all the experience of their technique, the two old masters simply fought spirit, with and through their eyes. If one had moved, his consciousness would have moved too and he would have shown a weakness. the first to weaken would have been utterly lost, because the other would have answered with one blow.
It is the same in everyday life as well, you must watch the other person's eyes: when your adversary's eyes move, or unclear, hesitate, doubt, waver, there is suki, opportunity, the flaw. In the critical moments of our lives we must not show our weak points; because if we do we will make mistakes, we will stumble and fall and be defeated. This form of vigilance cannot come from constant bodily tension, for the body would soon wear out; it must come from the attentiveness and strength of the mind.


The goal is not technique, though through improved technique removes the distraction of doubt we have about our ability. The aim is not physical strength, yet physical weakness hampers our ability to focus. It's certainly not outward aggression, for that drains our energies and leads to a loss of the control we have over our own actions. Everything we do to prepare to trade contributes to increasing the attentiveness of our mind and ability.

Without testing the strength and attentiveness of our own mind in real battle in the markets, we have no foundation on which to judge our skills. Paper traders are just fooling themselves.

So what's all this got to do with becoming a Samurai trader, or a Top Gun pilot in the markets? All these different exercises to develop our inner skills contribute to our trading performance. A Top Gun pilot may fight only two or three real dog fights in his career, but he fought thousands of battle simulations in preparation. Joe Montana would take at least 300 snaps a week in practice to refine his timing and technique, but his actions during a game were instinctive. Both did their homework until the mechanics became instinctive.

It is no different for traders. We have to do our homework as well. Our homework involves countless hours if indicator back-testing to build a confident reference library for our decisions. We test and retest our hypothesis and trading results until rapid-fire trading decisions became instinctive. Intuition is born from hard work. There is no way to side step this phase of development. If you are currently struggling with the technical aspects of trading, the chapters that follow will be challenging for you. However, those who know there is more to trading than technical skill, or discipline, are ready to fully benfit in the training which lies ahead.

Let's go back to the final days leading towards the Gulf War.

At this stage of my career, I was trading for a private investor who leased two condominiums that comprised the entire penthouse floor of a high-rise building near the United Nations Building in New York. Security at the building, which housed numerous foreign dignitaries, was as tight as Fort Knox. I am quite confident that the key security positions for this building were filled by Secret Service Agents. All the condos facing southeast could clearly see down to the front driveway of the U.N. Building.

Of the two penthouse condominiums, one was dedicated entirely to the trading operation. The trading room was spectacular. It was situated in what had previously been a sunken living room with hard wood floors at the corner of the building. Two entire walls were floor to ceiling glass. The trading desk was made up of two huge glass tables fitted back-to-back in the middle of the room. By day it offered a stunning view of New York; by night, it was breath taking. this room was surrounded by a sparkling curtain of city lights and shimmering building silhouettes. The immense and spectacular trading desk was not cluttered with the usual cables and paper. There were nine 35" TV screens stacked three high, covering the full width of the room. Eight screens tracked the markets, and the center screen tracked the profit/loss of all open positions on a real-time basis. (If a trader was in a losing trade, everyone on the desk could see it!) The other wall that ran the length of the room was a white board where the firm's analyst kept a running tally of support/resistance, price projections, volatility, Fibonacci levels, and custom statistics. Now you have a feel for what this trading environment was like.

Five traders were employed to trade their speciality: S&P, Bonds, Crude, Beans, and Metals. A sixth seat at the head of the table was reserved for the Principal. I traded the S&P. The energy specialist had an additional responsibility: having acquired exceptional money management skills while trading for Paul Tudor Jones, he managed the risk exposure for the firm.

Each morning when we entered the trading room, we were required to put a number from 1 to 10 on the white board beside our names. This number was an analysis of ourselves. If you felt like you were sitting on top of the world, everything was going your way, you felt healthy, strong, and had an invincible attitude ready to take on anything that might happen that day, you would give yourself a rating of 10. On the other hand, if you had been up all night with the flu, you just opened your mail and learned you have been personally selected by the IRS to experience the joy of a field audit, and you want to kick anything living or inert that comes in your way, you might give that day's attitude a rating of one. Most of us rated ourselves between four and eight. A 10 was rare, and when it showed up on the board, everyone took notice of it. A shuffle would occur within the firm. If the Bean trader was a 10 when I was closer to a 3, the firm's trading capital was allocated accordingly so that the Bean trader could establish positions of greater size than might normally occur. No one was motivated to falsely give themselves a 10, as a 10 also meant that you were trading a portion of the other trader's capital, and they could see how your traders were doing by just looking at the middle monitor. You had to be incredibly sure of yourself to be willing to take on that extra stress. It is an interesting system that I still use today with a few minor twists. I've altered the daily rating to a scale of .1 to 1.00. The rating becomes a weighting adjustment to the probability portion of any risk management equation. It is important if you adopt such a system to rate yourself before the markets open.

This system of attitude monitoring ties directly to how tuned-in you may be to your intuition. One of the rarely declared "10" ratings that I gave myself happened to coincide with the James Baker/Tarek Aziz last ditch effort to prevent the Gulf War. You knew the outcome of the meeting would produce a ballistic market move, and the outcome would dictate the direction. Every trader in the world faced flat lines on theor computer screens waiting for them to emerge from their meeting at the Intercontinental Hotel in Geneva, Switzerland. We were all waiting for Secretary Baker's statement.

On that day, my intuition was a live electric wire. Every little thing seemed to be amplified. The first jolt after the meeting was when CNN announced that the press briefing had been rescheduled to a later time so that Secretary of State Baker could report to President Bush. That time delay alone nearly had me reaching for the phone to sell S&Ps.

You don't call the boss to tell him you succeeded, that can be relayed within a public forum. You usually only need to consult with the boss when you need to define a plan of action when you have to walk on eggshells or cover your back. While CNN anchor babbled in Atlanta over a live picture from Geneva, you could see a reporter ask Baker a question. They did not broadcast the audio for this live picture, but sound wasn't needed. If you had an eye for detail, the answer was clear as a bell. Baker wiped his hands, left over right, right over left, and shrugged them away from his body as if he were trying to wash this whole mess off and push it away. I instantly grabbed the phone to start selling S&P up to my full size without moving the market excessively. The other traders on the desk were still waiting to hear Baker, and they all looked shock at me and then turned questioningly to the Principal of the firm sitting at the head of the trading desk. Somewhere in my selling frenzy I yelled, "SELL! IT'S WAR!" The principal just looked at me with a questioning glance. I nodded back and kept selling. About that time, the CNN camera showed Baker walking down the hall toward the press room. To me, he had the weight of the world on his shoulders, and the Principal then picked-up on Baker's body language. The others still had no sense of what was coming. About the same time, the Principal looked over at the white board and saw the number 10 scratched by my name. Without further delay, he screamed in his heavy German accent, "DO IT!" We were all fully positioned by the time Baker began his now famous. "I re....". The markets never even let him finish the word regret before all hell broke loose on the screens. To my great relief, we were on the right side. (Actual gains on the desk in thirty minutes are in the book.)

Many individuals who freeze at the screen, and cannot pull the trigger to execute a trade, experience analysis paralysis because they are unsure of the tools from which they base their decisions. These individuals have not put in enough time, they haven't done their homework, to build their confidence. This form of decision paralysis is easy to fix. It just takes time and hard work to answer the nagging questions. there are certainly other reasons for decision paralysis that are more difficult to address, and these with techniques to resolve them will be explored in other chapters.

Intuition, I find, plays an important part when I don't understand what's happening or developing on the screen. At these times I find it is more helpful not to push for the answer. Relax, become calm, and go with the flow of your intuitive self. For years I carried around a quote from Albert Einstein. It goes something like this:

As one grows older, one sees the impossibility of imposing one's will on the chaos with brute force. But if you are patient, there will come that moment in time, when while eating an apple, the solution will present itself politely and say, "Here I am."

When the solution does not present itself politely, the situation unfolding on the screen likely contains a wild card that I don't understand. In which case, my intuition nearly always forces me to the sidelines and out of the trade. It may mean that the exact same trade will have to be established at a different level. However, when I truly have no idea about what is transpiring on the computer screen between markets, my flight-to-safety instinct is invariably the correct response.

A flight-to-safety response can be abused as an easy out to resolve an inner conflict between the Basic Self and the Conscious Self. Fortunately it is easy to identify when this tug of war happens within us. The Basic Self and the Conscious Self are usually separated by the word "But." This leads us to the next exercise.

Objective: Trading from the Left Side of Your "But."

Purpose: Learn to favor your Intuition rather than your Conscious Self.

Exercise: Simply stated, stay on the left side of your "but," and don't let what follows the "but" steer you off course. The left side of each of these phrases is your intuition. Here are a few examples:

"I could really use a break, BUT I need another winning trade to close out the month."

"I really think there is a buying opportunity right now, BUT my indicators have not given their usual confirmation pattern."

"I really want to get out of this trade I just established, BUT my broker will think I'm indecisive."

"There is a strong sell signal on the screen right now, BUT the last time I traded from that same signal I was wrong."


You probably have the pattern firmly identified in your mind now with these examples. The challenge is to live and stay on the left side of your "but."

You can also practice your intuition by trying to predict common every day occurrences. For instance: who is calling on the phone? What does that man in the seat beside me do for a living? Will that man waiting for the train door to open walk to the left or right? it is our inner voice that can guide us through a crisis, major decision, or problem, or simply change mundane habits. Our intuition is our most reliable guide. By asking simple questions of ourselves like those just listed, as if it were a game, we learn to listen to the answer from within. It's not the answer that is important, it's the learning to listen for our inner voice. When we trade without effort, we are thinking less about our actions and listening more to our intuition.

How can you think and hit at the same time?
- Yogi Berra


To conclude this discussion of intuition, let's return to the Secrets of the Samurai. This is an excerpt from a Sajshin, an intensive three-day training session.

Student: But why is spirit or mind the most important?.

Master Deshimaru: Because in the end, it is what decides.
In Japanese martial arts of long ago, one motion meant death, and that was the reason for the great deliberation and concentration in the movements preceding attack. One stroke and it's all over: one dead man --sometimes two, if there were two strokes and both were as it should be. It all happens in a flash. And in that flash the mind decides, technique and body follow. In all modern sports there is a pause, but in the martial arts there is no pause. If you wait, ever so little, you're lost; your opponent gets the advantage. the mind must be constantly concentrated on the whole situation, ready to act or react; that's why it is so important.

Student: How does one choose the technique of attack?

Master Deshimaru; There is no choosing. It all happens unconsciously, automatically, naturally. There can be no thought, because if there is thought there is time of thought and that means a flaw.
For the right movement to occur there must be permanent, totally alert awareness, of the entire situation; that awareness chooses the right stroke, technique and body executes it, and it's all over.

Student: In kendo, for example, there is a tactic called debana wasa: you must attack before your opponent does, strike before he strikes. For that technique, intuition is clearly very important.

Master Deshimaru; It is always important, essential. If an opponent gives you a blow you were not expecting, then you have to have the intuition to parry it, that will trigger the right reaction of body and technique. But if you take time to think, "I must use this technique or that technique," you will be struck while you are thinking. Intuition triggers body and technique. Body and consciousness unite, you think with the whole body, your whole self is invested in the reaction.
That's why it is so difficult to make categories about the order of importance of shin, wasa, tai - mind, technique, body. They have to be united, not separate. It is the perfect unison of the three that creates the right action; not their separation. Complete unity.
In the martial arts, kendo, the way of the sword, has always been regarded as the noblest of all because it necessitated the most complete union of all three, intuition, body, and technique.

É extenso e provavelmente nem todos leram até ao fim. Espero que os que o fizeram tenham conseguido 'apanhar' algum sumo. Muito mais haveria a dizer e quando tiver tempo não deixarei de o fazer, desta vez, espero que na nossa lingua materna...

Cumps,
lmm
"

[Kooc]

obrigado pelas resposta lmm

cumps

[arnie]

esqueci-me de uma coisa

Há quem diga que o DOW está a repetir o mesmo movimento de 1983 a 1984, onde tivemos um rallie de 1 ano, um movimento lateral/descendente de outro ano e depois aí sim, BOOM, THE BULL MARKET STARTED

Ou seja, olhando para o movimento actual do DOW, tivemos um rallie de 1 ano, até Outubro de 2004 ou Março de 2005 iremos andar a consolidar o anterior rallie e só depois, BOOM, ANOTHER BULL MARKET WILL START

um abraço
arnie

[arnie]

Olha o lmm

Com que então a colocar um post como visitante para o mesmo passar incognito, seu malandro

A minha alma tá parva
Isso é que é ser-se "bullish"

Eu tenho lido que, segundo "gann studies", o ano que vem vai-nos trazer a sombra do bear market novamente e só em 2005, aí sim, teremos um novo bull market, com todo o seu explendor, que nos levará até 2008 a 2010.

Eu sinceramente estou a preparar-me para começar a construir uma carteira de acções (portugas/europeias) lá para o final do ano que vem, a existir uma queda acentuada dos mercados e levar essa carteira lá para 2006 a 2008. Será do tipo....comprar, fechar os olhos e só voltar a abrir 2 anos depois

Esta tua previsão veio estragar os meus planos

Bolas

um abraço
arnie

PS: aparece mais vezes pois é necessário incentivar o "culto" desse tipo de analise

[Visitante]

Caro cook,

Prever o próximo tick é para mim algo que ainda não advinho quanto mais tantos ticks por esse 2004 fora

Objectivo da previsão é somente preparar o espirito tendo por base um conjunto de racionalizações sobre as quais o processo de decisão do trade irá incidir.
Pessoalmente, os meus indíces de confiança melhoram bastante tendo a previsão feita antecipadamente, mesmo sabendo que irá falhar algumas vezes. Com o passar do tempo espero poder melhorar cada vez mais pois há ainda muito para estudar...

Passando directamente ás questões:
- Sobre a predisposição de que falas, por definição, a partir do momento em que fazemos uma análise em que queremos "prever" o que o mercado vai fazer a seguir, é incontornável o condicionamento para a tomada de decisão - formou-se uma opinião, um dos maiores inimigos do trader. Só fazendo trading de intuição pura é que isso não acontece - a intuição é o nível mais elevado que podes atingir para o trading ou qualquer outra actividade; é o chamado estar "in the zone", e que é a área onde estou neste momento a investir muito do meu tempo.
A única alternativa a qualquer destas considerações será a actuação em função de um sistema automático.
Negoceio de forma puramente discricionária, e necessito deste tipo de bengalas...
Um outro aspecto interessante ao fazerem-se as previsões é que é possível fazê-las vários anos para diante e só o facto de podermos antecipar um ano Bull ou Bear faz a diferença.

- Relativamente ao ano de 2003, efectivamente, também a fiz. Ressalvo uma vez mais que a Previsão Anual nada mais é do que um mapa e não tomo decisões com base nela. Serve para confirmar, ou não lol, o que eu leio do mercado a cada barra.
Uso muitos gráficos (há tempos atrás deixei alguns no Caldeirão) e folhas de cálculo no meu trading e o que de vez em quando vou mostrando não passa mesmo de um destaque ou outro sobre a forma como trabalho.
Desta forma a percentagem de acerto acaba por ser algo relativa dada a forma como a colocas pois se o mercado hoje me der um determinado sinal que é contrário ao da Previsão, opto pelo primeiro; ou espero pacientemente por uma "confirmação". O papel fundamental da Previsão é conhecer as datas em que determinados movimentos no mercado serão mais prováveis.
A Previsão para 2003 falhou no sentido em que o arranque "deveria" ter ocorrido logo em finais de Janeiro, suportado pela 1x2 do low de 2002. O mercado quebrou esse suporte e veio à 1x4 em 13-02, fazendo um pivot ao tick (amarelo). O mercado faz pivot e os preços são rejeitados na 1x2, agora resistência, para serem suportados somente na 1x8 (magenta)a 13-03 para uma arrancada fulminante de volta à 1x2.
O trading com base em rácios geométricas preço-tempo associado a linhas de suporte e resistência "naturais" e da evolução dos preços no espaço É a pedra basilar do meu sistema.

Voltando à Previsão, o mercado deveria ter culminado em Julho, que eu defendi aqui (e no mercado )oportunamente a propósito do ND, SP e DAX que tinham datas semelhantes, mas tal não aconteceu pois o mercado simplesmente manteve-se imperturbável no seu uptrend.

O arranque final deveria ter ocorrido em finais de Setembro para terminar o ano nos máximos. Deixo o gráfico da Previsão para 2003, sem clusters temporais pois estão na folha de cálculo só as tendo incluído a partir deste ano para facilitar a leitura - negoceio várias commodities e estar a pintar o "boneco" em todas dá um trabalhão que não se justifica.
O boneco de 2003 também aqui fica para a história. Espero que o deste ano já mostre alguns outros progressos

Cumps,
lmm

P.S. - cook, desde há anos que luto para perceberem o nick... é LMM em minúsculas, tá?

[Kooc]

boas imm:
´
Antes de mais parabéns pela análise e pela coragem de a expor.

Pessoalmente, tenho algumas duvidas que se possa ser tão rigoroso a prever um futuro, em termos de mercado, ainda algo distante. Mas o beneficio da duvida será sempre dado e só a futura evolução dos mercados te irá dar razão, ou não.

Uma questão que eu coloco, é se essa "predisposição" para determinado tipo de posições, não te limitará em diversas alturas a capacidade de análise?

Outra questão, é saber se este estudo foi feito para 2003 e se sim, qual o seu grau de acerto?

cumps

[Pata-Hari]

Infelizmente não consigo (não dá)... mas podes voltar a post-ar e eu apago este tópico, se quiseres...

[Visitante]

Esquecime do registo. Será possível o admin "de serviço" colocar isto "dentro" do meu nick?

Obrigado

[Visitante]

Talvez um pouquito cedo de mais, quis começar já a trabalhar a pensar no ano de 2004 para os mercados que gosto mais de negociar.

Dado que não é muito frequente ver-se este tipo de trabalho quis mostrar ao ppl do Caldeirão como penso que será o ano do Dow. Olhando para o forecast, parece-me ser incontornável que vamos ter um ano Bull.
O trabalho por trás do gráfico nada tem de “sentimento” nem de “acho que” e tão pouco tem em conta o que se passou este ano de 2003 (ou que ainda se vai passar, lol), mas tão somente uma projecção fase a análise ciclica do Dow, de acordo com a minha interpretação do Time Factor, olhando para várias décadas atrás para apurar o dia-a-dia de cada uma das sessões, desde o dia 2 de Janeiro até o 31 de Dezembro de 2004.

Associado ao gráfico identifico os clusters das harmónicas temporais da série de dados no que aos timeframes diário, semanal e mensal diz respeito. Estes clusters fazem parte de um outro estudo paralelo fundamental para o forecast, mas com outro tipo de dados.

Decorre dali um forte rally a encetar em Março, olhando para a compra de calls ou venda puts a associar aos contratos negociados, na sequência de um período de range nos 2 primeiros meses do ano.

Este rally culmina em Maio após 2 movimentos impulsivos. Como nota, de registar em Abril o vencimento de uma harmónica muito importante relativa à data de incorporação da NYSE, que também não é factor determinante para o forecast aqui mostrado mas não deixa de ser interessante dada a reacção a ocorrer durante este período.

De Abril até finais de Agosto, com um bias positivo no mercado, deverá ser um período interessante para algum swingtrading até à última semana desse mês, ao que se seguirá uma forte correcção, permitindo inverter a estratégia de opções adoptada em Março.

Em meados de Setembro novo low, com consequente estratégia sobre opções a abrir calls. Até ao final do ano, um rally final e realização de year highs.

Mostro este gráfico sem complexos, dado não passar de uma análise preditiva esperando não causar melindre nos Bears. Mas como é uma das minhas ferramentas de trabalho que nunca mostrei, ela aqui fica, esperando despertar nos espiritos mais inquietos a vontade de encetar o trabalho um trabalho descoberta tão importante para mim em termos de implementação de estratégia ao acompanhar os gráficos “reais” à medida que o tempo e os preços vão evoluindo. Este tipo de análise terá maior importancia quanto maior for o timeframe de negociação, e este ano pretendo negociar menos vezes.

Para culminar, fica um apontamento do estado do Dow neste ano de 2003 (preços cash), mostrando também aqui um gráfico novo ao Caldeirão, com uma análise geométrica dos ângulos mais relevantes em curso. Para o gráfico chamo somente a atenção para os angulos 1x2 assinalados (o resto não quero comentar pois não quero confundir mais ninguém com este tema difícil...) e que balizam o Bull deste ano – enquanto os preços se aguentarem acima deles não vão existir correcções, sendo neste momento a 1x2 inferior o principal suporte.

Culminaram nos últimos dias importantes ciclos que servem de resistência aos preços que menciono somente dado que cruzam quase em cima dos resistance levels a tracejado na horizontal – penso que deveremos ter um mercado lateral com bias negativo até final do ano pois seria muito surpreendente ver o mercado a quebrar AQUELE level sem uma correcção, mas hey, já fui surpreendido tantas vezes, lol

Enfim, isto é análise... o trading faz-se todos os dias quando o mercado está aberto.

Boas Festas para todos,
lmm