Rating dos EUA em risco?
Re: Rating dos EUA em risco?
Fitch Ratings put America’s triple-A credit rating on "watch negative" for potential downgrade Tuesday, saying “the political brinkmanship and reduced financing flexibility could increase the risk of a U.S. default."
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/the-exch ... 06427.html
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/the-exch ... 06427.html
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Re: Rating dos EUA em risco?
US Debt Ceiling 2013: The Possibility Of A Sovereign Credit Rating Downgrade
By Moran Zhang
on October 03 2013 6:21 AM
The stock market is getting a little bumpy as the partial shutdown of the U.S. government drags on, but even worse lies ahead if the debt ceiling isn't raised later this month.
While the shutdown will probably take a small bite out of economic growth, a failure to raise the debt ceiling would not just involve the furloughing of nonessential federal employees. It could also mean that Social Security payments are missed, that government contractors aren't paid and that holders of Treasury notes and bonds won't receive their coupon payments. The Treasury expects to be down to its last $30 billion by Oct. 17.
Ralph Axel, interest rates strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, laid out the possible scenarios for the U.S. sovereign rating. The big three rating agencies -- S&P, Moody's and Fitch -- analyze risk and give debt a grade that reflects the borrower's ability to pay the underlying loans and serves as guidance for investors. The safest bets are labeled "AAA."
Possible scenarios for the U.S. sovereign rating. Bank of America Merrill Lynch / Ralph Axel
The most likely outcome is that Congress will increase the debt ceiling before the data is reached. In this scenario, each rating agency may warn of imminent potential rating changes as we near the “X” date, according to Axel. Once the ceiling is raised the likely implications for the ratings are:
Moody’s (Aaa, stable): Moody’s remains at Aaa and maintains their stable outlook. Moody’s puts much less emphasis on political brinkmanship and focuses instead on the fiscal consolidation results that have been achieved.
S&P (AA+, stable): S&P maintains its current outlook and rating. While S&P is much more concerned about the stability and predictability of a sovereign’s government, the agency has already downgraded the U.S. to reflect this.
Fitch (AAA, negative): Another last-minute scenario like 2011 could prompt Fitch to cut the U.S. credit rating by one notch. Fitch explicitly points to the expiration of federal appropriations authority and the debt ceiling as stress points that will help determine a decision on how to resolve a negative outlook by the end of 2013. Fitch warned in June that “failure to raise the federal debt ceiling in a timely manner (i.e. several days prior to when the Treasury will have exhausted extraordinary measures and cash reserves) will prompt a formal review of the U.S. sovereign ratings and likely lead to a downgrade.”
In the unlikely event that the debt ceiling is not raised by the “X” date, the Treasury may be forced to miss a debt payment. According to Axel, the debt payment most at risk may not be until Oct. 31, when the Treasury has to make $6 billion in coupon interest payments.
“Rating agencies do not consider missed payments on non-debt obligations as a default, but missing a debt-related payment is a default,” Axel said, adding that the rating agency actions depend on how many defaults occur and over what time frame.
The Treasury likely would not have enough cash on hand to make a scheduled Social Security payment on November 1 and would also be unable to meet a debt interest payment that will fall due on 15th November, potentially triggering a technical default. Bank of America Merrill Lynch / Ralph Axel
By Moran Zhang
on October 03 2013 6:21 AM
The stock market is getting a little bumpy as the partial shutdown of the U.S. government drags on, but even worse lies ahead if the debt ceiling isn't raised later this month.
While the shutdown will probably take a small bite out of economic growth, a failure to raise the debt ceiling would not just involve the furloughing of nonessential federal employees. It could also mean that Social Security payments are missed, that government contractors aren't paid and that holders of Treasury notes and bonds won't receive their coupon payments. The Treasury expects to be down to its last $30 billion by Oct. 17.
Ralph Axel, interest rates strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, laid out the possible scenarios for the U.S. sovereign rating. The big three rating agencies -- S&P, Moody's and Fitch -- analyze risk and give debt a grade that reflects the borrower's ability to pay the underlying loans and serves as guidance for investors. The safest bets are labeled "AAA."
Possible scenarios for the U.S. sovereign rating. Bank of America Merrill Lynch / Ralph Axel
The most likely outcome is that Congress will increase the debt ceiling before the data is reached. In this scenario, each rating agency may warn of imminent potential rating changes as we near the “X” date, according to Axel. Once the ceiling is raised the likely implications for the ratings are:
Moody’s (Aaa, stable): Moody’s remains at Aaa and maintains their stable outlook. Moody’s puts much less emphasis on political brinkmanship and focuses instead on the fiscal consolidation results that have been achieved.
S&P (AA+, stable): S&P maintains its current outlook and rating. While S&P is much more concerned about the stability and predictability of a sovereign’s government, the agency has already downgraded the U.S. to reflect this.
Fitch (AAA, negative): Another last-minute scenario like 2011 could prompt Fitch to cut the U.S. credit rating by one notch. Fitch explicitly points to the expiration of federal appropriations authority and the debt ceiling as stress points that will help determine a decision on how to resolve a negative outlook by the end of 2013. Fitch warned in June that “failure to raise the federal debt ceiling in a timely manner (i.e. several days prior to when the Treasury will have exhausted extraordinary measures and cash reserves) will prompt a formal review of the U.S. sovereign ratings and likely lead to a downgrade.”
In the unlikely event that the debt ceiling is not raised by the “X” date, the Treasury may be forced to miss a debt payment. According to Axel, the debt payment most at risk may not be until Oct. 31, when the Treasury has to make $6 billion in coupon interest payments.
“Rating agencies do not consider missed payments on non-debt obligations as a default, but missing a debt-related payment is a default,” Axel said, adding that the rating agency actions depend on how many defaults occur and over what time frame.
The Treasury likely would not have enough cash on hand to make a scheduled Social Security payment on November 1 and would also be unable to meet a debt interest payment that will fall due on 15th November, potentially triggering a technical default. Bank of America Merrill Lynch / Ralph Axel
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Fitch Warns of US Downgrade Over Debt Fight
Published: Tuesday, 15 Jan 2013 | 6:10 AM ET
By: Shai Ahmed
Associate Editor, CNBC
Failure to raise the debt ceiling within a "timely" manner would see the United States' sovereign ratings put under formal review with "highly uncertain" consequences, rating agency Fitch warned U.S. policymakers Tuesday.
In a statement Fitch said the debt ceiling was "an ineffective and potentially dangerous mechanism for enforcing fiscal discipline. It does not prevent tax and spending decisions that will incur debt issuance in excess of the ceiling while the sanction of not raising the ceiling risks a sovereign default and renders such a threat incredible."
Fitch warned that while the current Negative Outlook on the triple-A rating would likely be resolved, the absence of a credible medium term deficit reduction plan meant a downgrade later this year is likely "even if another debt ceiling crisis is averted."
It added that the U.S.'s triple-A rating was "underpinned by the country's relative economic dynamism and potential, diminishing financial sector risks, respect for the rule of law and property rights, as well as the exceptional financing flexibility that accrues from the global benchmark status of U.S. Treasury securities and the dollar" – all of which was now threatened by the looming debt ceiling.
The U.S. government will reach its debt limit by the end of February or early March, and an agreement is needed between Republicans and Democrats for an increase to the debt ceiling. The two sides face similar acrimonious discussions to those that preceded an eleventh hour deal to avert the "fiscal cliff" in the New Year.
Speaking at a public event, Ben Bernanke the Federal Reserve chairman said although the "fiscal Cliff" deal had made some progress, the U.S.was "not out of the woods yet."
"Protracted debate prior to increasing the debt ceiling is not an exceptional event, but against the backdrop of unprecedentedly large peacetime budget deficits and outstanding debt, any delay in raising the limit would pose ever increasing risks to the ability of the federal government to honor its obligations in a timely fashion," Fitch said.
Bruno Verstraete of Lakefield Partners cautioned that the U.S. was facing a year of austerity if a deal could not be reached, warning the market would punish the country.
"It's becoming clear to investors that the U.S. might have a big political problem and a huge debt problem that they need to resolve. So far they have taken the strategy of growing themselves out of it which has not really worked. They will need to save a bit, increase taxes and take the budget under control. If not, the market will punish them either with a credit downgrade or with higher yields, higher yields are a given for 2013," he said.
By CNBC's Shai Ahmed; Follow her on Twitter @shaicnbc
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100379705
Published: Tuesday, 15 Jan 2013 | 6:10 AM ET
By: Shai Ahmed
Associate Editor, CNBC
Failure to raise the debt ceiling within a "timely" manner would see the United States' sovereign ratings put under formal review with "highly uncertain" consequences, rating agency Fitch warned U.S. policymakers Tuesday.
In a statement Fitch said the debt ceiling was "an ineffective and potentially dangerous mechanism for enforcing fiscal discipline. It does not prevent tax and spending decisions that will incur debt issuance in excess of the ceiling while the sanction of not raising the ceiling risks a sovereign default and renders such a threat incredible."
Fitch warned that while the current Negative Outlook on the triple-A rating would likely be resolved, the absence of a credible medium term deficit reduction plan meant a downgrade later this year is likely "even if another debt ceiling crisis is averted."
It added that the U.S.'s triple-A rating was "underpinned by the country's relative economic dynamism and potential, diminishing financial sector risks, respect for the rule of law and property rights, as well as the exceptional financing flexibility that accrues from the global benchmark status of U.S. Treasury securities and the dollar" – all of which was now threatened by the looming debt ceiling.
The U.S. government will reach its debt limit by the end of February or early March, and an agreement is needed between Republicans and Democrats for an increase to the debt ceiling. The two sides face similar acrimonious discussions to those that preceded an eleventh hour deal to avert the "fiscal cliff" in the New Year.
Speaking at a public event, Ben Bernanke the Federal Reserve chairman said although the "fiscal Cliff" deal had made some progress, the U.S.was "not out of the woods yet."
"Protracted debate prior to increasing the debt ceiling is not an exceptional event, but against the backdrop of unprecedentedly large peacetime budget deficits and outstanding debt, any delay in raising the limit would pose ever increasing risks to the ability of the federal government to honor its obligations in a timely fashion," Fitch said.
Bruno Verstraete of Lakefield Partners cautioned that the U.S. was facing a year of austerity if a deal could not be reached, warning the market would punish the country.
"It's becoming clear to investors that the U.S. might have a big political problem and a huge debt problem that they need to resolve. So far they have taken the strategy of growing themselves out of it which has not really worked. They will need to save a bit, increase taxes and take the budget under control. If not, the market will punish them either with a credit downgrade or with higher yields, higher yields are a given for 2013," he said.
By CNBC's Shai Ahmed; Follow her on Twitter @shaicnbc
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100379705
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Elias Escreveu:Fitch mantém notação máxima para os EUA com perspectiva negativa
11 Julho 2012 | 00:53
Lusa
A agência de notação financeira Fitch decidiu na terça-feira manter os Estados Unidos com "rating" máximo, o do triplo A. Além disso, manteve a perspectiva negativa, considerando que persistem perigos pelo desacordo político para adoptar medidas de redução do défice.
Em comunicado, a agência disse que, até finais de 2013, não pretende alterar as perspectivas negativas adoptadas em Novembro, as quais significam que o "rating" dos EUA pode baixar no curto prazo.
"A incerteza sobre as políticas de impostos e despesas, associadas ao chamado precipício orçamental, pesam sobre as perspectivas de curto prazo", justificou a Fitch. "Acordos sobre planos multianuais de redução do défice iriam estabilizar o endividamento" e poderiam fazer com que as perspectivas fossem estáveis, uma situação que parece difícil de alcançar até depois das eleições, devido ao impasse entre democratas e republicanos no Congresso.
A Fitch entende que os Estados Unidos continuam a ter uma sólida economia produtiva e diversificada, com a flexibilidade financeira que dá uma moeda como o dólar, uma divisa de reserva a nível mundial.
Em Agosto passado, a Standard and Poor's cortou o "rating" dos Estados Unidos para AA+, uma decisão que desencadeou uma onda de pânico nos mercados financeiros.
A Moody's, por seu lado, manteve a qualificação de AAA, mas colocou a nota em perspectiva negativa, também em agosto do ano passado.
Todos puseram o rating em perspectiva negativa, contudo só a S&P reduziu o rating e teve logo problemas com o governo...
As outras agências, irão esperar até que efectivamente o acordo do tecto da dívida não seja atingido e que a divida pública americana se torne insustentável....
Para Portugal, curiosamente quando nos colocaram com perspectiva negativa, na semana seguinte trataram logo de nos baixar o rating... aplica-se a frase de que o Zé Povinho é que se lixa sempre... e neste caso Portugal é um "Zé Povinho" no Mundo...
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Fitch mantém notação máxima para os EUA com perspectiva negativa
11 Julho 2012 | 00:53
Lusa
A agência de notação financeira Fitch decidiu na terça-feira manter os Estados Unidos com "rating" máximo, o do triplo A. Além disso, manteve a perspectiva negativa, considerando que persistem perigos pelo desacordo político para adoptar medidas de redução do défice.
Em comunicado, a agência disse que, até finais de 2013, não pretende alterar as perspectivas negativas adoptadas em Novembro, as quais significam que o "rating" dos EUA pode baixar no curto prazo.
"A incerteza sobre as políticas de impostos e despesas, associadas ao chamado precipício orçamental, pesam sobre as perspectivas de curto prazo", justificou a Fitch. "Acordos sobre planos multianuais de redução do défice iriam estabilizar o endividamento" e poderiam fazer com que as perspectivas fossem estáveis, uma situação que parece difícil de alcançar até depois das eleições, devido ao impasse entre democratas e republicanos no Congresso.
A Fitch entende que os Estados Unidos continuam a ter uma sólida economia produtiva e diversificada, com a flexibilidade financeira que dá uma moeda como o dólar, uma divisa de reserva a nível mundial.
Em Agosto passado, a Standard and Poor's cortou o "rating" dos Estados Unidos para AA+, uma decisão que desencadeou uma onda de pânico nos mercados financeiros.
A Moody's, por seu lado, manteve a qualificação de AAA, mas colocou a nota em perspectiva negativa, também em agosto do ano passado.
11 Julho 2012 | 00:53
Lusa
A agência de notação financeira Fitch decidiu na terça-feira manter os Estados Unidos com "rating" máximo, o do triplo A. Além disso, manteve a perspectiva negativa, considerando que persistem perigos pelo desacordo político para adoptar medidas de redução do défice.
Em comunicado, a agência disse que, até finais de 2013, não pretende alterar as perspectivas negativas adoptadas em Novembro, as quais significam que o "rating" dos EUA pode baixar no curto prazo.
"A incerteza sobre as políticas de impostos e despesas, associadas ao chamado precipício orçamental, pesam sobre as perspectivas de curto prazo", justificou a Fitch. "Acordos sobre planos multianuais de redução do défice iriam estabilizar o endividamento" e poderiam fazer com que as perspectivas fossem estáveis, uma situação que parece difícil de alcançar até depois das eleições, devido ao impasse entre democratas e republicanos no Congresso.
A Fitch entende que os Estados Unidos continuam a ter uma sólida economia produtiva e diversificada, com a flexibilidade financeira que dá uma moeda como o dólar, uma divisa de reserva a nível mundial.
Em Agosto passado, a Standard and Poor's cortou o "rating" dos Estados Unidos para AA+, uma decisão que desencadeou uma onda de pânico nos mercados financeiros.
A Moody's, por seu lado, manteve a qualificação de AAA, mas colocou a nota em perspectiva negativa, também em agosto do ano passado.
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ninja1200 Escreveu:Essa tradução está o máximo!
Podia estar indicado que foi traduzida por um tradutor automático, assim ainda há quem pense que é a sério.
Para mim a medalha de ouro continua a ir para uma tradução que vi uma vez de um manual de instruções de um equipamento electrónico qualquer, sendo que "Turn around the Power" foi traduzido como "Gire em torno do poder"
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Re: Traduzindo :
Elias Escreveu:Riscas, estes tradutores automáticos são sempre pretexto para umas boas gargalhadas:RISCAS Escreveu:A Fitch Ratings afirmou nesta terça-feira que os Estados Unidos afirmou 'rating de crédito de alto nível em AAA.
(...)
Menos provável seria um downgrade de um entalhe", disse o comunicado .
Porquê ?
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Re: Traduzindo :
Riscas, estes tradutores automáticos são sempre pretexto para umas boas gargalhadas:
RISCAS Escreveu:A Fitch Ratings afirmou nesta terça-feira que os Estados Unidos afirmou 'rating de crédito de alto nível em AAA.
(...)
Menos provável seria um downgrade de um entalhe", disse o comunicado .
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hummm, tanta coisa tão importante em jogo!! Não será fácil decidir baixar o rating dos EUA... mas duvido que as dúvidas fossem tão grandes se fosse Portugal ou outro país qualquer!
Sugestões de trading, análises técnicas, estratégias e ideias http://sobe-e-desce.blogspot.com/
http://www.gamesandfun.pt/afiliado&id=28
http://www.gamesandfun.pt/afiliado&id=28
-
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Traduzindo :
Elias Escreveu:Fitch affirms U.S. at AAA, outlook stable
On Tuesday August 16, 2011, 9:51 am
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Fitch Ratings said on Tuesday it affirmed the United States' top-notch credit rating at AAA, giving the world's largest economy a reprieve after it was downgraded by Standard & Poor's little more than a week ago.
Fitch said the outlook for the rating was stable.
"The affirmation of the US 'AAA' sovereign rating reflects the fact that the key pillars of US's exceptional creditworthiness remains intact: its pivotal role in the global financial system and the flexible, diversified and wealthy economy that provides its revenue base," Fitch said in its statement.
"Monetary and exchange rate flexibility further enhances the capacity of the economy to absorb and adjust to 'shocks'."
However, Fitch warned the outlook for the rating depended on the economy and the political process in Washington to reduce the public debt.
It said an upward revision to medium to long term projections for public debt either as a result of weaker than expected economic recovery or failure of the joint committee to agree on at least $1.2 trillion in deficit reduction would likely put the United States on negative outlook.
"The rating action would most likely be a revision of the rating Outlook to Negative, which would indicate a greater than 50 percent chance of a downgrade over a two-year horizon. Less likely would be a one-notch downgrade," the statement said.
(Reporting by Burton Frierson; Editing by Theodore d'Afflisio)
Editado pela última vez por RISCAS em 16/8/2011 16:47, num total de 1 vez.
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Fitch affirms U.S. at AAA, outlook stable
On Tuesday August 16, 2011, 9:51 am
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Fitch Ratings said on Tuesday it affirmed the United States' top-notch credit rating at AAA, giving the world's largest economy a reprieve after it was downgraded by Standard & Poor's little more than a week ago.
Fitch said the outlook for the rating was stable.
"The affirmation of the US 'AAA' sovereign rating reflects the fact that the key pillars of US's exceptional creditworthiness remains intact: its pivotal role in the global financial system and the flexible, diversified and wealthy economy that provides its revenue base," Fitch said in its statement.
"Monetary and exchange rate flexibility further enhances the capacity of the economy to absorb and adjust to 'shocks'."
However, Fitch warned the outlook for the rating depended on the economy and the political process in Washington to reduce the public debt.
It said an upward revision to medium to long term projections for public debt either as a result of weaker than expected economic recovery or failure of the joint committee to agree on at least $1.2 trillion in deficit reduction would likely put the United States on negative outlook.
"The rating action would most likely be a revision of the rating Outlook to Negative, which would indicate a greater than 50 percent chance of a downgrade over a two-year horizon. Less likely would be a one-notch downgrade," the statement said.
(Reporting by Burton Frierson; Editing by Theodore d'Afflisio)
On Tuesday August 16, 2011, 9:51 am
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Fitch Ratings said on Tuesday it affirmed the United States' top-notch credit rating at AAA, giving the world's largest economy a reprieve after it was downgraded by Standard & Poor's little more than a week ago.
Fitch said the outlook for the rating was stable.
"The affirmation of the US 'AAA' sovereign rating reflects the fact that the key pillars of US's exceptional creditworthiness remains intact: its pivotal role in the global financial system and the flexible, diversified and wealthy economy that provides its revenue base," Fitch said in its statement.
"Monetary and exchange rate flexibility further enhances the capacity of the economy to absorb and adjust to 'shocks'."
However, Fitch warned the outlook for the rating depended on the economy and the political process in Washington to reduce the public debt.
It said an upward revision to medium to long term projections for public debt either as a result of weaker than expected economic recovery or failure of the joint committee to agree on at least $1.2 trillion in deficit reduction would likely put the United States on negative outlook.
"The rating action would most likely be a revision of the rating Outlook to Negative, which would indicate a greater than 50 percent chance of a downgrade over a two-year horizon. Less likely would be a one-notch downgrade," the statement said.
(Reporting by Burton Frierson; Editing by Theodore d'Afflisio)
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Agência
S&P avisa que pode voltar a baixar o 'rating' dos EUA
Económico
07/08/11 17:44
A agência voltou a hoje a comentar o corte do 'rating' dos EUA feito na sexta-feira. Diz que existe uma em três hipóteses de novo 'downgrade'.
"Temos um 'outlook' negativo, entre seis meses e dois anos. E se a situação orçamental se deteriorar ainda mais ou se o impasse político se enraizar, então isso pode levar a um 'downgrade'", avisou o responsável da Standard & Poor's, John Chambers, no programa 'This Week' da ABC, acrescentando que "a perspectiva indica que existe uma em três possibilidades de um corte do 'rating' nesse período".
John Chambers considerou ainda que irá levar algum tempo para os Estados Unidos voltarem a ter a nota máxima de 'AAA', defendendo a necessidade de "estabilizar a dívida ou talvez uma redução" e "uma maior capacidade para se chegar a um consenso em Washington do que aquela que se observa neste momento".
Numa decisão inédita, a S&P baixou em um nível a notação financeira dos Estados Unidos, passando de ‘AAA' (o máximo) para ‘AA+', na noite de sexta-feira. Apesar de ter reconhecido que cometeu um erro de dois biliões de dólares nas projecções orçamentais para a maior economia do mundo, a agência manteve a sua decisão, argumentando que na base do 'downgrade' está a convicção de que o Governo norte-americano não será capaz de equilibrar as finanças públicas.
S&P avisa que pode voltar a baixar o 'rating' dos EUA
Económico
07/08/11 17:44
A agência voltou a hoje a comentar o corte do 'rating' dos EUA feito na sexta-feira. Diz que existe uma em três hipóteses de novo 'downgrade'.
"Temos um 'outlook' negativo, entre seis meses e dois anos. E se a situação orçamental se deteriorar ainda mais ou se o impasse político se enraizar, então isso pode levar a um 'downgrade'", avisou o responsável da Standard & Poor's, John Chambers, no programa 'This Week' da ABC, acrescentando que "a perspectiva indica que existe uma em três possibilidades de um corte do 'rating' nesse período".
John Chambers considerou ainda que irá levar algum tempo para os Estados Unidos voltarem a ter a nota máxima de 'AAA', defendendo a necessidade de "estabilizar a dívida ou talvez uma redução" e "uma maior capacidade para se chegar a um consenso em Washington do que aquela que se observa neste momento".
Numa decisão inédita, a S&P baixou em um nível a notação financeira dos Estados Unidos, passando de ‘AAA' (o máximo) para ‘AA+', na noite de sexta-feira. Apesar de ter reconhecido que cometeu um erro de dois biliões de dólares nas projecções orçamentais para a maior economia do mundo, a agência manteve a sua decisão, argumentando que na base do 'downgrade' está a convicção de que o Governo norte-americano não será capaz de equilibrar as finanças públicas.
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Moody’s considera corte na notação dos EUA “prematuro” e Fitch está a “reflectir”
07.08.2011 - 17:16 Por Lusa
A agência de notação financeira Moody’s considera “prematuro” um corte na notação dos Estados Unidos enquanto a Fitch pensa que ainda é preciso “reflectir”, disseram responsáveis das duas agências hoje citados pelo “The New York Times”.
Na sexta-feira, a Standard & Poor´s, reduziu a notação da dívida soberana dos EUA de AAA para AA+
(Bazuki Muhammad/Reuters)
Na sexta-feira, a terceira grande agência internacional de notação financeira, a Standard & Poor’s, reduziu a notação da dívida soberana dos EUA de AAA (nível máximo) para AA+.
“Pensamos que um corte da notação seria prematuro, visto que [o Congresso dos EUA] chegou a acordo para um plano de redução do défice”, disse Steven Hess, analista da Moody’s citado pelo jornal nova-iorquino.
“Apesar do contexto político conflituoso e das dificuldades em chegar a um acordo, e mesmo se o acordo [orçamental] não é o ideal, consideramo-lo mesmo assim um ponto de viragem na política orçamental dos EUA”, disse Hess.
Pelo Fitch, o director das notações soberanas, David Riley, recusou-se a comentar sobre uma mudança na avaliação dos EUA, limitando-se a dizer que a nota “continua a ser AAA, até ao dia em que mudar”.
Riley disse contudo que, mesmo que Fitch e Moody’s mantenham a nota máxima para os EUA, a redução pela Standard & Poor’s terá efeitos: “Já enfraqueceu o perfil de devedor dos Estados Unidos”.
07.08.2011 - 17:16 Por Lusa
A agência de notação financeira Moody’s considera “prematuro” um corte na notação dos Estados Unidos enquanto a Fitch pensa que ainda é preciso “reflectir”, disseram responsáveis das duas agências hoje citados pelo “The New York Times”.
Na sexta-feira, a Standard & Poor´s, reduziu a notação da dívida soberana dos EUA de AAA para AA+
(Bazuki Muhammad/Reuters)
Na sexta-feira, a terceira grande agência internacional de notação financeira, a Standard & Poor’s, reduziu a notação da dívida soberana dos EUA de AAA (nível máximo) para AA+.
“Pensamos que um corte da notação seria prematuro, visto que [o Congresso dos EUA] chegou a acordo para um plano de redução do défice”, disse Steven Hess, analista da Moody’s citado pelo jornal nova-iorquino.
“Apesar do contexto político conflituoso e das dificuldades em chegar a um acordo, e mesmo se o acordo [orçamental] não é o ideal, consideramo-lo mesmo assim um ponto de viragem na política orçamental dos EUA”, disse Hess.
Pelo Fitch, o director das notações soberanas, David Riley, recusou-se a comentar sobre uma mudança na avaliação dos EUA, limitando-se a dizer que a nota “continua a ser AAA, até ao dia em que mudar”.
Riley disse contudo que, mesmo que Fitch e Moody’s mantenham a nota máxima para os EUA, a redução pela Standard & Poor’s terá efeitos: “Já enfraqueceu o perfil de devedor dos Estados Unidos”.
- Mensagens: 35428
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Markets Anxiously Awaiting S&P'S Decision On US Credit Rating
AUGUST 3, 2011, 1:24 P.M. ET
By Stephen L. Bernard
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Standard & Poor's finds itself the center of attention Wednesday as it remains the lone major ratings company that hasn't said ruled on its credit rating for the U.S. following Tuesday's debt deal.
S&P, which along with Moody's Investors Service put the U.S. government on a review for possible downgrade last month, was seen during the fractious debate over the debt ceiling as taking the most aggressive position of the ratings firms. In particular, it raised the prospect of a downgrade, when it repeatedly said that at least $4 trillion in deficit reduction was needed for the U.S. government to get its fiscal house in order. The problem is that the plan that President Barack Obama signed into law Tuesday contemplates only $2.4 trillion in cuts over 10 years.
The key question on many market participants' minds is whether that shortfall will compel the firm to strip the U.S. of its coveted "AAA" rating or whether it will wait for further developments in defining the austerity measures before acting.
S&P has various options available when it finally makes an announcement. The most dramatic move would be to immediately downgrade the rating. It might also follow Moody's lead and end the review by affirming the rating but assign a negative outlook to it. Alternatively, it could announce that it is keeping the rating on review, possibly to make a final decision once the recommendations of a new bipartisan fiscal commission are announced in November.
S&P has repeatedly declined to comment since the bill was passed Tuesday.
The odds that S&P downgrades the U.S. are probably still around 50-50, said Guy LeBas, chief fixed-income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC in Philadelphia. One of the issues S&P must grapple with is whether a sharply divided Congress has the political will to see through the recently passed deficit reduction plans and any additional plans in the future, he said.
Beyond the numbers, qualitative factors, such as the U.S.'s position in global markets and the dollar's stature as the world's reserve currency, also factor into whether to cut the government's rating, LeBas said.
In Moody's case, predicting its actions was easier. It largely telegraphed the idea that it would affirm the rating if the debt ceiling was raised and a default avoided.
In its statement Tuesday, Moody's said it views the $2.4 trillion plan as a good start toward improving the country's finances, but more work will need to be done.
Fitch Ratings, the third major ratings firm, also weighed in Tuesday, saying it was not surprised the country raised the debt ceiling. Unlike the other two, Fitch did not change its outlook or put the U.S. government on review during the debt ceiling debate.
The firm did note, however, that it is completing a regular review of the U.S. in August and could change its outlook on the rating at the conclusion of the review.
-By Stephen L. Bernard, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-4528;
stephen.bernard@dowjones.com
AUGUST 3, 2011, 1:24 P.M. ET
By Stephen L. Bernard
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Standard & Poor's finds itself the center of attention Wednesday as it remains the lone major ratings company that hasn't said ruled on its credit rating for the U.S. following Tuesday's debt deal.
S&P, which along with Moody's Investors Service put the U.S. government on a review for possible downgrade last month, was seen during the fractious debate over the debt ceiling as taking the most aggressive position of the ratings firms. In particular, it raised the prospect of a downgrade, when it repeatedly said that at least $4 trillion in deficit reduction was needed for the U.S. government to get its fiscal house in order. The problem is that the plan that President Barack Obama signed into law Tuesday contemplates only $2.4 trillion in cuts over 10 years.
The key question on many market participants' minds is whether that shortfall will compel the firm to strip the U.S. of its coveted "AAA" rating or whether it will wait for further developments in defining the austerity measures before acting.
S&P has various options available when it finally makes an announcement. The most dramatic move would be to immediately downgrade the rating. It might also follow Moody's lead and end the review by affirming the rating but assign a negative outlook to it. Alternatively, it could announce that it is keeping the rating on review, possibly to make a final decision once the recommendations of a new bipartisan fiscal commission are announced in November.
S&P has repeatedly declined to comment since the bill was passed Tuesday.
The odds that S&P downgrades the U.S. are probably still around 50-50, said Guy LeBas, chief fixed-income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC in Philadelphia. One of the issues S&P must grapple with is whether a sharply divided Congress has the political will to see through the recently passed deficit reduction plans and any additional plans in the future, he said.
Beyond the numbers, qualitative factors, such as the U.S.'s position in global markets and the dollar's stature as the world's reserve currency, also factor into whether to cut the government's rating, LeBas said.
In Moody's case, predicting its actions was easier. It largely telegraphed the idea that it would affirm the rating if the debt ceiling was raised and a default avoided.
In its statement Tuesday, Moody's said it views the $2.4 trillion plan as a good start toward improving the country's finances, but more work will need to be done.
Fitch Ratings, the third major ratings firm, also weighed in Tuesday, saying it was not surprised the country raised the debt ceiling. Unlike the other two, Fitch did not change its outlook or put the U.S. government on review during the debt ceiling debate.
The firm did note, however, that it is completing a regular review of the U.S. in August and could change its outlook on the rating at the conclusion of the review.
-By Stephen L. Bernard, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-4528;
stephen.bernard@dowjones.com
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Agência chinesa baixa 'rating' dos EUA
Económico com Lusa
03/08/11 04:24
A agência chinesa de 'rating' Dagong baixou hoje a notação dos Estados Unidos de A+ para A.
Além disso, a agência reviu as perspectivas da dívida norte-americana para negativas, disse à Agência Lusa fonte da instituição.
O presidente da Dagong, Guan Jianzhong, já tinha alertado recentemente, em entrevista à Lusa, que a agência tinha em vista baixar a nota atribuída aos Estados Unidos por constatar uma capacidade "insuficiente" do país de criar riqueza real.
Para a Dagong, as disputas políticas em relação à dívida norte-americana demonstram a "incapacidade" de o Governo dos EUA resolver o problema e a elevação do seu tecto não irá contribuir para "alterações positivas dos factores que influenciam a capacidade de pagamento de dívidas do país a longo prazo".
Económico com Lusa
03/08/11 04:24
A agência chinesa de 'rating' Dagong baixou hoje a notação dos Estados Unidos de A+ para A.
Além disso, a agência reviu as perspectivas da dívida norte-americana para negativas, disse à Agência Lusa fonte da instituição.
O presidente da Dagong, Guan Jianzhong, já tinha alertado recentemente, em entrevista à Lusa, que a agência tinha em vista baixar a nota atribuída aos Estados Unidos por constatar uma capacidade "insuficiente" do país de criar riqueza real.
Para a Dagong, as disputas políticas em relação à dívida norte-americana demonstram a "incapacidade" de o Governo dos EUA resolver o problema e a elevação do seu tecto não irá contribuir para "alterações positivas dos factores que influenciam a capacidade de pagamento de dívidas do país a longo prazo".
Cumpts.
Trisquel
A divindade, o princípio e o fim, a eterna evolução, o movimento, a vibração e a perpétua aprendizagem.
Trisquel
A divindade, o princípio e o fim, a eterna evolução, o movimento, a vibração e a perpétua aprendizagem.
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- Localização: Setúbal
Mais uma cidade dos EUA a declarar-se insolvente
http://economico.sapo.pt/noticias/mais- ... 23910.html
Imagino se os paises da zona euro estivessem como os estados dos USA
Um abraço
http://economico.sapo.pt/noticias/mais- ... 23910.html
Imagino se os paises da zona euro estivessem como os estados dos USA
Um abraço
A bolsa é um mundo cheio de oportunidades...
... de perder dinheiro
... de perder dinheiro
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Pickbull Escreveu:Feldstein diz que EUA têm 50% de probabilidade de entrar em recessão
Ora aqui está uma previsão 100% correcta.
Se fosse eu entregava-lhe já um Nobel.
fonte: http://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/home.php?template=SHOWNEWS_V2&id=499493
Sugestões de trading, análises técnicas, estratégias e ideias http://sobe-e-desce.blogspot.com/
http://www.gamesandfun.pt/afiliado&id=28
http://www.gamesandfun.pt/afiliado&id=28
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- Localização: Almada
Feldstein diz que EUA têm 50% de probabilidade de entrar em recessão
Ora aqui está uma previsão 100% correcta.
Se fosse eu entregava-lhe já um Nobel.
fonte: http://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/home.php?template=SHOWNEWS_V2&id=499493
Ora aqui está uma previsão 100% correcta.
Se fosse eu entregava-lhe já um Nobel.
fonte: http://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/home.php?template=SHOWNEWS_V2&id=499493
Mais vale perder um lucro do que ganhar um prejuízo.
É melhor um burro vivo do que um cavalo morto.
Mais vale uma alegria na vida do que um tostão no bolso.
É melhor um burro vivo do que um cavalo morto.
Mais vale uma alegria na vida do que um tostão no bolso.
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artista Escreveu:Parece-me óbvio que os mercados já descontaram a aprovação do aumento do tecto da dívida!
Artista, a reacção à aprovação foi feita ontem, hoje é praticamente um dado adquirido! Isto está perigoso para os "longos" .... são cada vez mais as vozes que antecipam uma descida de rating dos EUA! Na Europa, temos a dívida soberana novamente em máx. (Espanha, Italia, ...) e o Chipre na eminência de pedir ajuda à UE! O panorama está cinzento escuro
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Parece-me óbvio que os mercados já descontaram a aprovação do aumento do tecto da dívida!
Sugestões de trading, análises técnicas, estratégias e ideias http://sobe-e-desce.blogspot.com/
http://www.gamesandfun.pt/afiliado&id=28
http://www.gamesandfun.pt/afiliado&id=28
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- Localização: Almada
Trisquel Escreveu:Alguém sabe a que horas é a votação final?
Aug 1 (Reuters) - The U.S. Senate will vote on a bill to raise the country's debt ceiling on Tuesday at 12:00 p.m. EDT (1600 GMT), Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid said on Monday.
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