João Dolores: Ação da Sonae “tem um desconto à volta de 50%”

[Dwer]

Continue to sell rallies! Market ready to move lower.

Trade Setup Summary for Monday, December 1, 2003:
2 possible trade scenarios for Monday:

1) Sell 1064.25 or higher on pullback to this zone based on the Sell Pivot Target trade.

2) Sell BreakOut at 1067.50

* Either trade you took or based entry on was stopped out for 2-5 pts. as the market pushed higher after a fast, hard drop at 2:10-2:18 est.

Recap of Monday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining with us today.

On our Headline Call we were looking for one more rally today which we had expected would start the process of pulling back as we roll to a Sell Mode in our underlying Market Force indicators.

We got a strong, early gap up and prices moved higher creating a strong up move on the Dow and NAZ (our nickname for the Nasdaq composite index).

We wanted to get short on this rally to attempt to hold short for a good downside move which should start soon. Entry was either near the Sell Pivot Target +4.25 (1064.25) or the BreakOut which occured much later in the session (12:07 est).

The S&P500 later staged a fast pullback starting at the 2:06est area running to one tick below the B/D at 2:18 est and gradually moved back up towards the highs. Locals were selling that fast, lower spike based on the 1068.80 S&P500 Futures High from June 18, 2002 according to my floor contacts.

However, the desire was there by the markets along with the strong bullish High Five to run back up and pop out those highs making further progress.

So we were patiently waiting for further erosion which never occured later in the session and had to exit the trade with a relatively small loss.

Nothing has changed in the scenario for lower prices so far so we will continue to hit the rallies with short sales.

Today's Call & Briefing:
Our expectation for today is to see either prices make another attempt to rally or to slowly erode off a flat to slightly higher opening.

As mentioned above nothing has changed in our scenario for our underlying Market Force indicators to roll to a sell mode and Monday's action has now fufilled the price goal objective mentioned at 1066.00. So based on this we would expect a decent size down day to show up anytime.

In the meantime we will just continue to hit the rallies and catch the pullbacks off those rallies if we get em. For today we also want to be on the lookout for prices to possibly "hang up" near the highs for sometime before falling back.

Today could be a bit tricky as we now have a sufficient amount of bulls committed to the higher prices which should create enough sell force for today HOWEVER if we see the prices run down hard and fast this tends to load the Bears back in and prices move up. We saw this occur on Monday in a market where the Bears were already dominating the field. So for now this has changed and an early push up again should create a nice selling opportunity.

We have to be a bit careful with the Sell Pivot Target today as it is very close to the closing price and I will give some special instructions in that section for that.

TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: We will be looking to Sell the BreakOut today if we get that setup on the first Hour One pivot. Be on the lookout for a bullish High Five and add 2-4 points to the B/O if that is the case. Special Note on Monday's B/O: When the market gaps up on the open and then runs up substantially from the open like it did on Monday you want to look to directly sell the B/O number. The market has already "added 2-4 points" for you by the gap up and price run up. This also applies on the opposite side of the market when they gap down hard and run lower first before the B/D is hit. Remember this idea for your future B/O and B/D trades.

If we hit the BreakDown FIRST on a lower open and early, fast move lower then it will most likely be a Buy today. We need to monitor the High Five and news situation but we are NOT expecting a Bear Ugly day after a nice rally day like we had on Monday.

Value Area: 1,064.40 - 1,069.80
For a short sale to work out nicely on a higher opening and early run up we wold look for the bottom of the VA to be taken out or come in as support on a short from the Sell Pivot Plus a few points.

Trade below 1064.40 off the open or in the first half hour of trading is a sign of weakness to confirm short sales.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,063.50 - 1,064.50
No Trade at this pivot today.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,072.50 - 1,071.50
Here is what we want to do with this Sell Pivot Target today. Monitor the Pivot +4.25 or 1076.75 for resistance. If you see this price holding back the S&P500 prices then let's go ahead and Sell the Sell Pivot target upon seeing this.

If that action is close to the first hour completing then it may be wise to just wait for the first hour to close and compare with the BreakOut Pivot if that is the first Hour One pivot being hit. You can also monitor this and see if the prices are resisting the 1076.75 and that number is ABOVE the Hour One B/O for further evidence of a pullback about to occur.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,047.20
We have rallied substantially above the Pit Bull and if we see prices start to pull back as expected then this gap should close pretty quickly.

Support on lower prices will come in at 1068.80-69.80 (that July 2002 High the floor was watching Monday), 1064, 1060-61. 1056-57, then 51 half before approaching the Pit Bull. We are not expecting price to run this low today.

Pro Trader's Action
We will be looking for any rallies today to get short in the early part of the session. If we get a lower, fast move down in the first hour or so it could create too many bears jumping on the move and cause the market to hold up just a bit more for one day.

Otherwise we are now on alert waiting for a larger scale sell off day to open up the new Sell Mode direction until it goes into aberration or continues lower.

During these periods where the Market Force indicators are rolling over it can often make for erratic trading moves as we saw on Monday. Remember, although that move got faded in the later part of the session the market was pointing to where it wanted to go fast. Now that a significant amount of convinced bulls have gotten one sided today could see the moves associated with a roll over to the sell mode we are anticipating.

Good luck in your trading today and I'll see you in the action. Mohan