Cisco - Nasdaq
Cisco earnings eyed for more improvement
Silicon Valley / San Jose Business Journal
Date: Sunday, February 5, 2012, 8:26am PST
Cisco Systems earnings on Wednesday are being closely watched for more signs of improvement from the networking equipment leader.
Cisco Systems Inc. earnings on Wednesday are being watched for more signs of improvement for the networking equipment giant.
Analysts expect the San Jose-based company (NASDAQ:CSCO) to post earnings of 38 cents a share, up almost 23 percent, on a revenue increase of about 8 percent to $11.23 billion.
Cisco last year shook up its business, cutting staff and dropping consumer-oriented product lines to get back to its business-oriented core.
Its stock was one of the worst performers in 2010 but has risen 40 percent since hitting bottom at $13.30 last August. It closed at $20.09 on Friday.
With data traffic exploding and expected to grow fourfold over the next four years, Cisco's dominant position in providing the equipment and technology to handle that is seen as giving it great growth potential.
But the unnerving performance that led up to its refocusing last year keeps it on close watch.
The company is Silicon Valley's biggest employer, with more than 17,000 in the region.
Silicon Valley / San Jose Business Journal
Date: Sunday, February 5, 2012, 8:26am PST
Cisco Systems earnings on Wednesday are being closely watched for more signs of improvement from the networking equipment leader.
Cisco Systems Inc. earnings on Wednesday are being watched for more signs of improvement for the networking equipment giant.
Analysts expect the San Jose-based company (NASDAQ:CSCO) to post earnings of 38 cents a share, up almost 23 percent, on a revenue increase of about 8 percent to $11.23 billion.
Cisco last year shook up its business, cutting staff and dropping consumer-oriented product lines to get back to its business-oriented core.
Its stock was one of the worst performers in 2010 but has risen 40 percent since hitting bottom at $13.30 last August. It closed at $20.09 on Friday.
With data traffic exploding and expected to grow fourfold over the next four years, Cisco's dominant position in providing the equipment and technology to handle that is seen as giving it great growth potential.
But the unnerving performance that led up to its refocusing last year keeps it on close watch.
The company is Silicon Valley's biggest employer, with more than 17,000 in the region.
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Boas,
Semanal ainda sem o fecho de hoje.
Concordo no essencial com tudo o que o Elias aqui tem referido, no médio prazo identifico uma zona de resistência enorme na zona entre os 20.8 e os 22.5 que, a ser ultrapassada, a colocará em bull mode.
Principais suportes nos 19 e depois nos 17.
Cumprimentos,
Semanal ainda sem o fecho de hoje.
Concordo no essencial com tudo o que o Elias aqui tem referido, no médio prazo identifico uma zona de resistência enorme na zona entre os 20.8 e os 22.5 que, a ser ultrapassada, a colocará em bull mode.
Principais suportes nos 19 e depois nos 17.
Cumprimentos,
- Anexos
-
- 2012-01-24 18 36 38.png (12.58 KiB) Visualizado 7716 vezes
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Antes de mais parabéns a todos pelo o fórum.
A Cisco tem vindo a mostrar bastante força nos últimos dias, tendo já quebrado a zona de resistência onde andava a negociar.
Fica o gráfico:
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
A Cisco tem vindo a mostrar bastante força nos últimos dias, tendo já quebrado a zona de resistência onde andava a negociar.
Fica o gráfico:
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
-
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- Registado: 19/1/2012 22:42
Why Cisco's Stock Is Heading Toward $30
January 19, 2012
"No one has Cisco's (CSCO) breadth of innovation, the scale and reach of our customer delivery model or our talent and experience of our employees. Cisco's value to our customers is differentiated, and it is very simple. We are globally delivering to them network-centric platforms that make them more competitive and allow them to achieve their business goals." - Cisco CEO, John Chambers
The quote above was said in a speech to employees late last year by Cisco CEO, John Chambers. It's hard to imagine this was the same guy from whom I requested his letter of resignation. My, how that now seems so long ago. Now, I'm a different person and Cisco is clearly a different company.
The sudden resurgence in technology stocks has caused me to re-look at Cisco (CSCO), one of the sector's bellwethers that has been (for the most part) hanging to this title by a thread. The fact of the matter is, Cisco has failed to live up to its bellwether responsibilities for far too long and shareholders were beginning to get restless. But I now have reasons to believe that times are changing. The market is beginning to show the level of optimism needed to expect great things from a company such as Cisco, and better yet, the company is showing that it is ready to deliver.
Cisco's story is one that many (even today) still do not fully understand. The sad reality is, at one point I didn't feel that the company understood itself. It was fighting an identity crisis, while investors were trying to figure out if it was a value play or a value trap. Cisco was trying to be a growth company that didn't know how to grow. After allowing the likes of F5 Networks (FFIV), Juniper (JNPR), Hewlett Packard (HPQ) and Riverbed (RVBD) to encroach on its market share, the company had no choice but to listen to its shareholders and their demands for return on equity.
It then realized what Wall Street has been telling it all along, it had not shown that it could compete with the aforementioned companies on the same level as it once did. So management had to make some tough decisions. In order to increase profits and save the company $1 billion, Cisco laid off 9% of its workforce, It sold its set-top-box division, It discontinued its Flip video camera and trimmed its consumer products line. All of which have resulted in the slimmer, trimmer company that we see today.
These are just some of the decisions it has made to show that it has rededicated itself to its routing and switching business - the core competency that originally made it a powerhouse. While at the same time, investors should not ignore that saving $1 billion a year equates to more than 5% of its operating expenses. This is an initiative that will prove (in the long run) to increase both the company's earnings and free cash flow by double-digit percentage points per year.
A couple of months ago, upon the release of Cisco's Q1 fiscal 2012 earnings, my love affair with the company seem to have resurfaced - to the extent where I sent the company a letter of apology for having once demanded John Chambers' resignation. Since then, the stock has surged 42% from a low of $13.73 to where it sits today at $19 and my charts tell me that the stock is now heading toward $30 - a price that it has not seen since 2001. The reason for this optimism lies not only in its earnings report, but also that of some of its recent competitors.
In its Q1 fiscal 2012 earnings report, excluding some costs, profit climbed to 43 cents a share in the quarter ending October 29. Analysts on average had predicted 39 cents, according to Bloomberg data. Cisco also topped projections with its second-quarter forecast. First-quarter net income fell to $1.78 billion, or 33 cents a share, from $1.93 billion, or 34 cents, a year earlier. Sales rose 4.7% to $11.3 billion in the period, compared with an estimate of $11 billion. Cisco's gross margin narrowed to 62.4% last quarter, excluding some costs that beat the average estimate of 61.3%.
The slight drop in margin is where I suspect Chambers' quote stems from. It is clear that IBM (IBM), Lucent (ALU) as well as Brocade Communications (BRCD) have upped the ante on its core business. Considering Cisco is projecting that sales will grow 8% in the current quarter, this figure equates to $11.14 billion to $11.24 billion, beating the $11.13 billion predicted by analysts. Earnings will be 42 cents to 44 cents a share, excluding some costs. The average estimate was 42 cents.
The bottom line is, technology is once again a safe place to invest at the moment. If you want to break in down a bit further, in networking it continues to be Cisco and everyone else. Considering where the stock has risen from, I continue to think that the downside risk is very limited with respect to the cash and other strong fundamentals of the company. Its P/E is right at 10 and (to me) that implies a safer earnings risk when compared to several of its peers - namely Juniper, which might be a tad more vulnerable due to its high P/E and also the fact that Cisco has shown that it is becoming more aggressive in terms of market share and pricing.
Summary
Clearly the company is not out of the woods just yet. There are still challenges that lie ahead, but I now have several reasons to expect a continued rise not only in the company's execution but also in its share price. Even on the most bearish assumptions, this stock should easily approach the $25 mark before the end of Q2 and $30 by the end of the year.
Disclosure: I am long CSCO.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/320620- ... urce=yahoo
January 19, 2012
"No one has Cisco's (CSCO) breadth of innovation, the scale and reach of our customer delivery model or our talent and experience of our employees. Cisco's value to our customers is differentiated, and it is very simple. We are globally delivering to them network-centric platforms that make them more competitive and allow them to achieve their business goals." - Cisco CEO, John Chambers
The quote above was said in a speech to employees late last year by Cisco CEO, John Chambers. It's hard to imagine this was the same guy from whom I requested his letter of resignation. My, how that now seems so long ago. Now, I'm a different person and Cisco is clearly a different company.
The sudden resurgence in technology stocks has caused me to re-look at Cisco (CSCO), one of the sector's bellwethers that has been (for the most part) hanging to this title by a thread. The fact of the matter is, Cisco has failed to live up to its bellwether responsibilities for far too long and shareholders were beginning to get restless. But I now have reasons to believe that times are changing. The market is beginning to show the level of optimism needed to expect great things from a company such as Cisco, and better yet, the company is showing that it is ready to deliver.
Cisco's story is one that many (even today) still do not fully understand. The sad reality is, at one point I didn't feel that the company understood itself. It was fighting an identity crisis, while investors were trying to figure out if it was a value play or a value trap. Cisco was trying to be a growth company that didn't know how to grow. After allowing the likes of F5 Networks (FFIV), Juniper (JNPR), Hewlett Packard (HPQ) and Riverbed (RVBD) to encroach on its market share, the company had no choice but to listen to its shareholders and their demands for return on equity.
It then realized what Wall Street has been telling it all along, it had not shown that it could compete with the aforementioned companies on the same level as it once did. So management had to make some tough decisions. In order to increase profits and save the company $1 billion, Cisco laid off 9% of its workforce, It sold its set-top-box division, It discontinued its Flip video camera and trimmed its consumer products line. All of which have resulted in the slimmer, trimmer company that we see today.
These are just some of the decisions it has made to show that it has rededicated itself to its routing and switching business - the core competency that originally made it a powerhouse. While at the same time, investors should not ignore that saving $1 billion a year equates to more than 5% of its operating expenses. This is an initiative that will prove (in the long run) to increase both the company's earnings and free cash flow by double-digit percentage points per year.
A couple of months ago, upon the release of Cisco's Q1 fiscal 2012 earnings, my love affair with the company seem to have resurfaced - to the extent where I sent the company a letter of apology for having once demanded John Chambers' resignation. Since then, the stock has surged 42% from a low of $13.73 to where it sits today at $19 and my charts tell me that the stock is now heading toward $30 - a price that it has not seen since 2001. The reason for this optimism lies not only in its earnings report, but also that of some of its recent competitors.
In its Q1 fiscal 2012 earnings report, excluding some costs, profit climbed to 43 cents a share in the quarter ending October 29. Analysts on average had predicted 39 cents, according to Bloomberg data. Cisco also topped projections with its second-quarter forecast. First-quarter net income fell to $1.78 billion, or 33 cents a share, from $1.93 billion, or 34 cents, a year earlier. Sales rose 4.7% to $11.3 billion in the period, compared with an estimate of $11 billion. Cisco's gross margin narrowed to 62.4% last quarter, excluding some costs that beat the average estimate of 61.3%.
The slight drop in margin is where I suspect Chambers' quote stems from. It is clear that IBM (IBM), Lucent (ALU) as well as Brocade Communications (BRCD) have upped the ante on its core business. Considering Cisco is projecting that sales will grow 8% in the current quarter, this figure equates to $11.14 billion to $11.24 billion, beating the $11.13 billion predicted by analysts. Earnings will be 42 cents to 44 cents a share, excluding some costs. The average estimate was 42 cents.
The bottom line is, technology is once again a safe place to invest at the moment. If you want to break in down a bit further, in networking it continues to be Cisco and everyone else. Considering where the stock has risen from, I continue to think that the downside risk is very limited with respect to the cash and other strong fundamentals of the company. Its P/E is right at 10 and (to me) that implies a safer earnings risk when compared to several of its peers - namely Juniper, which might be a tad more vulnerable due to its high P/E and also the fact that Cisco has shown that it is becoming more aggressive in terms of market share and pricing.
Summary
Clearly the company is not out of the woods just yet. There are still challenges that lie ahead, but I now have several reasons to expect a continued rise not only in the company's execution but also in its share price. Even on the most bearish assumptions, this stock should easily approach the $25 mark before the end of Q2 and $30 by the end of the year.
Disclosure: I am long CSCO.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/320620- ... urce=yahoo
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Eu quando entro num titulo (já foi há alguns meses), faço-o por alguma convicção nesse sector.
O cloud computing está na moda, e isso vai puxar muito pelo sector de networking e afins.
Penso que a cisco tem potêncial para poder valorizar muito nestes dois próximos anos.
Conto pelo menos com uns 150%.
O cloud computing está na moda, e isso vai puxar muito pelo sector de networking e afins.
Penso que a cisco tem potêncial para poder valorizar muito nestes dois próximos anos.
Conto pelo menos com uns 150%.
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N. não sei o que vai acontecer nos próximos 3 meses - os resultados foram apresentados ontem e para já o mercado reagiu favoravelmente, agora temos de ver se o optimismo se mantém.
Quanto à questão da inversão de tendência é um pouco subjectiva, há vários critérios para aferir isso: quebra de LTD, cruzamento de uma média móvel de longo prazo, MACD semanal positiva (já por mim referida anteriormente)...
Quanto à questão da inversão de tendência é um pouco subjectiva, há vários critérios para aferir isso: quebra de LTD, cruzamento de uma média móvel de longo prazo, MACD semanal positiva (já por mim referida anteriormente)...
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Elias, achas que há probabilidade de no próximo trimestre ir fechar o último gap devido a resultados (chegar perto dos 22 USD)?
Se isso acontecer estamos perante uma inversão da tendência descendente de Longo Prazo, n?
Ou achas que basta um fecho aqui em torno dos 19 para quebrar a tendência descendente?
(não consigo pôr um gráfico agora, mas espero que quem olhar para um gráfico me perceba)
Se isso acontecer estamos perante uma inversão da tendência descendente de Longo Prazo, n?
Ou achas que basta um fecho aqui em torno dos 19 para quebrar a tendência descendente?
(não consigo pôr um gráfico agora, mas espero que quem olhar para um gráfico me perceba)
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Conquistador,
Dá uma vista de olhos neste tópico, encontras lá a minha resposta a essa questão.
1 abraço,
Elias
Dá uma vista de olhos neste tópico, encontras lá a minha resposta a essa questão.
1 abraço,
Elias
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Olá Conquistador,
A Cisco está de facto muito interessante. Não tenho qualquer posição no título, mas tenho vindo a acompanhá-la com atenção nas últimas semanas. Creio que haverá uma pequena resistência nos 18 (maximos relativos de Abril e Maio). Acima disso só vejo uma resistência importante nos 22,5.
Uma nota: já reparaste que a MACD semanal está a aproximar-se rapidamente da linha zero?
1 abraço,
Elias
A Cisco está de facto muito interessante. Não tenho qualquer posição no título, mas tenho vindo a acompanhá-la com atenção nas últimas semanas. Creio que haverá uma pequena resistência nos 18 (maximos relativos de Abril e Maio). Acima disso só vejo uma resistência importante nos 22,5.
Uma nota: já reparaste que a MACD semanal está a aproximar-se rapidamente da linha zero?
1 abraço,
Elias
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Boas;
Confirmando-se a quebra dos 17 parece-me que só terá resistências relevantes entre os 20,8 e os 22,5, mais coisa menos coisa.
Que te parece Elias?
Gráfico semanal.
Cumprimentos,
Confirmando-se a quebra dos 17 parece-me que só terá resistências relevantes entre os 20,8 e os 22,5, mais coisa menos coisa.
Que te parece Elias?
Gráfico semanal.
Cumprimentos,
- Anexos
-
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