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Market to move higher today.
Trade Setup Summary for Monday, November 17, 2003:
Buy at 1036.75-1034.75/ Sell for up to +8pts.

*Buy BreakDown minus 2-4 points.

Recap of Monday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining with us today.

Well, we got the early squash to the downside we were expecting on Monday and the BreakDown as the first Hour One pivot. The difficulty in trading on Monday's action was the question....Was the news genuinely Bear Ugly?

Certainly the High Five was a Bearish mess and it was rather difficult to decide whether to short the BreakDowh or look to Buy the B/D minus 2-4 points.

In reality the "bad news" was rather old news (but certainly unpleasant) about an increase in terrorism overseas. With the lower gap opening around 5 handles lower and the early run lower as we had predicted I felt it simply was NOT a Bear Ugly news situation as they usually come as a surprise. With that in mind the TCF Trade Setup was therefore a Buy the BreakDown which was in line with our Headline Call and our 18 proprietary indicators.

The fact is that during the majority of the session after the B/D occured the market just whipped around in a small 4-5 point range which made the trading action even more confusing. However, if you had some faith in our Headline Call and commentary then you simply held long and the results were there later in the final throes of the session.

If you stood aside on Monday, got long on the B/D or lower OR even shorted the BreakDown at 1038.75 you could have done alright.

So the lesson in Monday's action was to just be aware of what appeared to be an attempt to drive the market lower for what we feel was a rig for higher price action later this week. As evidenced by the later session climb back up above the opening, we are expecting to see prices continue to climb above the 1043.00 area and to see a follow up move over 1052.00 to really back up this idea.

Today's Call & Briefing:
On our Headline Call for today we are going to be looking for higher prices for the market. Ideally this will come from a slightly flat to lower opening, pullback and then seeing prices push higher.

If our call is going to pan out we would look for a slow, grind upwards that will tend to MOVE IN A WAY AS TO KEEP THE PUBLIC BEARISH. This is usually accomplished in what is called a "staircase rally". The Chart after this move is over looks like a staircase. The S&P500 will move up +3 points or so, back 1-2, up 3-4, back 1-2 etc. giving the bears confidence on the way up as the prices keep pulling back off the new highs.

Now I am not predicting this EXACT ACTION will occur today but just letting you know what this pattern looks like in case it does. You won't be fooled in this way and indeed perhaps we will get a chance to get long if the correct TCF seutp occurs.

We will be looking for prices to hold above today's opening price to confirm an upside move. Watch for price to dip below the opening and then gradually climb and hold above the open for show of upside strength.

TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: There is a good posibility of a BreakOut Buy today as the first Hour One pivot. We will normally look for this to occur when we see the BreakOut hit first with a Flat Dow at the time of the B/O (flat means up +50 or less) and the NAZ (our nickname for the Nasdaq composite index) up +12-15 or more. Next look for a TRIN under .80 and ideally the VIX lower.

It's not quite clear that we are ready for a full on BreakOut Buy today but the possibility is there. If we see the market move higher today and hit the B/O first BUT the above setup is NOT OCCURING then we will most likely be looking to Sell the BreakOut.

It is not as high of a probability of the BreakDown getting hit first as the B/O. If the BreakDown is hit first then we will need to determine if we are going into a larger scale meltdown to the downside as this would be a great possibility with the first Hour One pivot being the B/D.

We will look to get long at the Buy Pivot target today if we get the lower opening and run lower early. This number may get hit and bounce avoiding the Hour One BreakDown getting hit first. There is a strong chance of this occuring today.

Value Area: 1,034.30 - 1,042.00
We are closing just above the VA and any lower dip into the Value Area would be expected to pull back up and hold above the 1042.00 area to fufill or Headlie Call for higher prices today.

If we do head lower and hit the Buy Pivot target today within the VA we would look for the 1034.30 (which was the lows of Monday) to hold up and see prices move decisively off the Buy Pivot.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,036.75 - 1,037.75
On a lower opening and early push lower let's go ahead and buy this Buy Pivot Target today. Use a 5 point stop at 1031.75 to hold up the selling and observe the BreakOut Hour One pivot as a point to look for either taking profits or holding for a higher move.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,047.75 - 1,046.75
No trade at this pivot today. Watch the +4.25 stop/pivot at 1052.00 for prices to either stall and fall back under a weaker market scenario or take off further to the upside.

If the BreakOut higher is to occur then we could see the setup called, "Sell Pivot becomes buy support with a bullish High Five". You can look this up in our S&P500 Trading Handbook for more details on this setup.

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10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,051.40
Although we traded substantially below the Pit Bull on Monday we recovered into the close and are now back within the 10 handle CROSSOVER ALERT zone. What this means is that when we come within this range from the 10 Day Moving Average there is a strong chance of prices "Crossing Over" to the other side of the Pit Bull which in today's case would be the bullish side. No, this is not affiliated with the Life after Death show "Crossing Over" but...how did that guy know all that stuff about those peoples deceased relatives?

Pro Trader's Action
It's time today to see if we can get some serious upside action going and restore the bullish side of the price action OR we could be in for another 2 days of downside movement. Today will be vital for this and will be based primarily on how traders react to the price movements today. Will the market push higher and the Bears leap all over the rallies? (a bullish sign) OR will the market move ahead quickly and the Bulls get all rambunctious getting on the bullish side not wanting to "miss" a rally? (a bearish sign).

We will know more after today's action and will update you on tomorrows Morning Call briefing.

For today just stick with the exact TCF Trade setups and we will be able to book our profits accordingly. When trading the S&P500 don't get caught in a particular bias but just read the High Five and the TCF setups to make today's paycheck. If you are confused on a day such as Monday then standing aside in "Position Neutral" is just as valid a position as long or short.

Remember: in S&P500 futures trading, if you miss losing money by being on the wrong side it's the same as making money in this zero sum game. So hold out for a clear TCF seutp and you will move ahead gradually.

Good luck and all the best of success in your trading today. Mohan