Novos contratos de arrendamento com maior queda desde a pandemia

[Dwer]

Two Scenarios possible today: Either we get a Bear Ugly day right off the open and a huge sell off OR the market finds support on the early lows and moves higher above the 1050.00 Pit Bull/ Value Area.
Trade Setup Summary for Tuesday, November 11, 2003:
Buy the Buy Pivot Target in the 1043.00 or lower/ Sell for up to +5 pts.

* Morning Call suggested buying Buy Pivot or lower with opportunity to cover up to the B/O 1047.00

Recap of Tuesday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining with us in today's action.

Our Headline Call on Tuesday was looking to buy any early, lower moves for higher prices today which included buying the Buy Pivot target. We got a move to the Buy Pivot target in the 1043.00 area and a move up to the BreakOut at 1047.00 which floundered and pushed back lower after tapping the B/O.

So overall our Headline Call for higher prices did not pan out today but the slight bounce off the Buy Pivot did. The problem with Tuesday was obvious....no range and no volatility.

Tuesday was technically a Holiday with the Treasuries closed and this did indeed affect the markets by keeping trading relatively quiet. We had suggested that this could occur and recommended standing aside if things were confusing or there was dead trading movement.

If you bought the Buy Pivot or sold the BreakOut based on a bearish High Five you made money on either side as the prices traded off those two pivots in the small 5.25 range. The pressure on Tuesday was definitely to the downside and this has set up our Market Force indicators for a double sided call for today. I'll explain more below.

Today's Call & Briefing:
We are clearly looking for one of two scenarios today. Either the markets get hit hard right off the open with strong selling and a Bear Ugly type scenario with strong, negative news creating the havoc OR we will see the lower early action find support and bounce substantially.

Now keep in mind that we are not covering each side of the market with this calll but actually giving you two crystal clear setups one of which we expect to pan out. So in this sense you merely have to see if we are getting the true Bear Ugly action off the open or look for the other scenario.

Right now the overall appearance of the Market Force indicators are telling me that we either go into CRASH ALERT MODE or the Pit Bull ends up holding up prices and we see some further rally upside.

I am more inclined for today towards the Bearish side and if we begin a cascade lower then we will see the following support points down to the first level goal of 1021.00. These support points are 1041-42, 1035, 1033, 1029-30,1027.50, 1023 and then 1021.00.

If this is to be the case my expectation would be a hard, fast move down to this area which could take only one to two sessions to nail it. This would be under the Crash Alert scenario and today's action would begin the cascade.

Otherwise, expect to see support coming in near one of these support levels on an early move lower as prices climb out of the early drop.

TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: If we get the BreakDown as the first Hour One pivot today then we will be looking for the market to either be in a Bear Ugly type trading setup or we will be looking to Buy that B/D. If the High Five are especially bearish then find a spot 2-4 handles BELOW the B/D price to get long in that zone and we should see the market move higher as the excessive bears pile aboard the drop.

If there is no Bear Ugly news and follow up then the surprise could be today that we get a full on BreakOut Buy off the Hour One high. Although this is not the expected scenario we could see this occur based on certain proprietary indicators I am reading in our Market Force selection. The criteria for a Bullish BreakOut are described in great detail in our TCF Trading Handbook.

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Value Area: 1,044.20 - 1,046.00
The key to the market being bullish today is to see the prices rise above this resistance area on Tuesday above this zone. The next resistance upside is the Pit Bull 10 Day Moving Average in the 1050-51 area.

Prices holding below 1044.25 is bearish for today and we would expect prices to move towards the support levels mentioned above in the "Today's Call and Briefing" section.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,042.75 - 1,043.75
No trade at this pivot today. Watch for the -4.25 stop/pivot to find support at 1038.50 if we are NOT in a Bear Ugly market situation. Below that price we want to try and get short on a reflex rally back to this Buy Pivot Target area reversing the trade direction. This method is described in great detail in our S&P500 Trading Handbook.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,048.00 - 1,047.00
No Trade at this Sell Pivot Target today. Watch this zone for resistance and then above that at the +4.25 stop/pivot target at 1052.25.

You can compare this area also to the BreakOut price if we hit that Hour One Pivot first for more information on where to get long at the B/O if the High Five are bullish and this sets up.

Today should be pivotal in showing the true colors of the Market Bias for the short term. Either side is loaded right now for a big move so we will react accordingly using our super accurate TCF trading Setups to get aboard.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,050.50
We are below the Pit Bull but still in CROSSOVER ALERT. What this means is that we want to watch for the Pit Bull number to "get left in the dust" on a bearish sell off in prices or for the prices to stubbornly move back up to the 1050 area and "hang up" there. Should this occur we will most likely see a bullish BreakOut to the upside again crossing over 1062 and stretching to 1071 first area resistance above that new month High.

Pro Trader's Action
The slow, tight action of the last two sessions has thrown our Market Force indicators into a situation which we have adapted into today's Headline Call.

It apppears we are going to get a big move to one side or the other. The bias is mostly to the downside but we have evidence suggesting a huge upside move too which would clean out the excessive bears. Today's opening and subsequent first hour move should give us substantial evidence we can use for the weeks day to day sequencing of events.

Good luck with your trading today and just watch for those first 30 minute signs to keep us on track on the right side of the market.

All the best of luck and success. Mohan