Novos contratos de arrendamento com maior queda desde a pandemia

[Ulisses Pereira]

"Fed Might Make a Hot Economy Fizzle Out"

By James J. Cramer
11/10/2003 11:31 AM EST



"Don't cheer 7% growth if you like your equities to go higher. Don't get all thrilled about new jobs being created aggressively if you want the market to go up.

I know that there is a percentage of people out there under the mistaken impression that the market should go much higher on the strength of the macro news we had out last week.


Wrong!

Just think about what conditions produced the miraculous 7500 to 9800 run in the Dow. They were conditions where the economy gradually got better. They were conditions where it wasn't clear that things were "on fire."

Now think about the action since we discovered the market was on fire. Lots of companies aren't going higher. Only the most speculative of semiconductor stocks rallied last week. We even got a selloff in the cyclicals that have led this market so beautifully.

I love markets where it isn't clear how the economy is doing. That's because I know for a fact that the Federal Reserve won't do anything stupid that jeopardizes a long-term expansion.

But when it is clear, you can have the Fed state that it won't raise rates until 2007 and nobody will believe it. People don't believe it because they have been fooled so often before by a Fed that says one thing and does another. If anything, the Fed's words this year justify a total vote of no-confidence in words as a predictor of actions.

What's the solution?

Frankly, you have to root for the "fire" to find a level where it is less of a conflagration and more of a producer of warmth; less of a scald, more of a consistent level of comfort.

If we keep burning hard, the Fed will find a way to make the fire burn out.


So root for good, not great, news, and we will get back on track.

Otherwise, you will see Anheuser-Busch and General Mills and Avon and Colgate take center stage and Toll Brothers and Lennar and Centex and Countrywide get clobbered, correctly, because they no longer will have the cheap, affordable rates at their backs.


It would be sublime irony if, now that so many hedge funds had covered their homebuilder shorts, the time actually was right to go the other way. "

(in www.realmoney.com)