Netflix (Nasdaq:NFLX)
rg7803 Escreveu:AC, bem que eu dizia, esta vai aos 70-80 (e se calhar continua cara....)...
Está em queda livre no AH: -22%.
Estupidamente não entrei pois nem me lembrei; tinha saido nos 130, mais ou menos.
Eu fechei as minhas posições curtas que detinha dos $280 nos $140. Tantas vezes avisei o pessoal no blog para a bolha que se tinha formado na NFLX. Lmebro-me de que no dia seguinte ao aumento da minha posição curta, virem os analista do Pipper Jefray darem targets de $300... até suei nesse dia... mas passados 3 meses .. OUCH ! OUCH ! OUCH ! Que grande short que seria se tivesse mantido !! $87 agora
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OUCH .....-14% after-hours... profit warning !!
Netflix $NFLX Sees Q4 Sales, Profits Lower Than Expected
Netflix $NFLX Sees Q4 Sales, Profits Lower Than Expected
AC Investor Blog
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"What’s Netflix Hiding?"
By ERIC JACKSON
| OCT 10, 2011 |
7:00 AM EDT |
"Last week, I got invited to co-teach a class on Top Management Teams at the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth. The subject of the class was Why Smart Executives Fail. It addressed why really talented executives who lead market-leading companies can sometimes get themselves into hot water by making a bunch of deliberate and unconscious strategic moves.
At the end of the class, during a question-and-answer session with the students, one asked me how to spot some of the flaws in a CEO so as to avoid investing in the company they lead. I told him that my favorite approach was to listen to the CEO give a speech in which he had to answer questions on the fly. Another approach was to listen to the quarterly earnings calls and pay special attention to the question and answers.
I explained that CEOs today are typically protected from saying anything on a spontaneous basis. They have a phalanx of lawyers and public relations people who typically scrub any public speech they make, including the prepared remarks during the earnings calls. It's likely that they are also coached on how to answer many possible questions that they get.
However, you cannot prepare for every question. There are going to be some occasions when someone asks a CEO an unexpected question for which he must think on his own. It's in those moments when you truly get to assess a CEO's competence.
Can They Think on Their Own?
I first knew I was going to short Research In Motion (RIMM) when I listened to co-CEO Jim Balsillie answering analysts' questions about 18 months ago. It was simply a hot mess. You couldn't follow Balsillie's thinking after two sentences. He rambled on, ending in a place far different from where he began.
That was important to me as a potential investor because, if I can't make sense of the guy, how is his management team going to do so? How will people five or six positions removed from Balsillie make sense of his orders? By the time the game of broken telephone is applied to Balsillie's instructions, no one will be able to make any sense of them.
After class, another student approached me and asked me what it means then that Netflix (NFLX) doesn't even answer analyst questions. It's a very good point. Every quarter, analysts have a chance to submit their questions in advance. Investor relations collects it, shares it with management to prepare a response, and then Reed Hastings gets to deliver the official response.
The problem with this, of course, is that it gives Reed lots of time to be coached on this. Where's the real Reed? How does this guy form decisions and strategy? We don't know. As such, this policy on the part of Netflix is really a red flag for investors.
Netflix has done some strange things from a communications standpoint in the last 10 months. First Reed decided he wanted to write a Seeking Alpha response to short seller Whitney Tilson, who had posted the short case against Netflix. That Reed was taking time to essentially pump his stock -- and that he was doing it on Seeking Alpha -- was very puzzling. More recently, we saw Netflix's price increases for their customers, followed by a sophomoric apology five weeks later.
So, if CEOs like Reed Hastings are not ready to stand and deliver -- answering legitimate analysts' questions on his feet -- you should be very careful."
(in www.realmoney.com)
By ERIC JACKSON
| OCT 10, 2011 |
7:00 AM EDT |
"Last week, I got invited to co-teach a class on Top Management Teams at the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth. The subject of the class was Why Smart Executives Fail. It addressed why really talented executives who lead market-leading companies can sometimes get themselves into hot water by making a bunch of deliberate and unconscious strategic moves.
At the end of the class, during a question-and-answer session with the students, one asked me how to spot some of the flaws in a CEO so as to avoid investing in the company they lead. I told him that my favorite approach was to listen to the CEO give a speech in which he had to answer questions on the fly. Another approach was to listen to the quarterly earnings calls and pay special attention to the question and answers.
I explained that CEOs today are typically protected from saying anything on a spontaneous basis. They have a phalanx of lawyers and public relations people who typically scrub any public speech they make, including the prepared remarks during the earnings calls. It's likely that they are also coached on how to answer many possible questions that they get.
However, you cannot prepare for every question. There are going to be some occasions when someone asks a CEO an unexpected question for which he must think on his own. It's in those moments when you truly get to assess a CEO's competence.
Can They Think on Their Own?
I first knew I was going to short Research In Motion (RIMM) when I listened to co-CEO Jim Balsillie answering analysts' questions about 18 months ago. It was simply a hot mess. You couldn't follow Balsillie's thinking after two sentences. He rambled on, ending in a place far different from where he began.
That was important to me as a potential investor because, if I can't make sense of the guy, how is his management team going to do so? How will people five or six positions removed from Balsillie make sense of his orders? By the time the game of broken telephone is applied to Balsillie's instructions, no one will be able to make any sense of them.
After class, another student approached me and asked me what it means then that Netflix (NFLX) doesn't even answer analyst questions. It's a very good point. Every quarter, analysts have a chance to submit their questions in advance. Investor relations collects it, shares it with management to prepare a response, and then Reed Hastings gets to deliver the official response.
The problem with this, of course, is that it gives Reed lots of time to be coached on this. Where's the real Reed? How does this guy form decisions and strategy? We don't know. As such, this policy on the part of Netflix is really a red flag for investors.
Netflix has done some strange things from a communications standpoint in the last 10 months. First Reed decided he wanted to write a Seeking Alpha response to short seller Whitney Tilson, who had posted the short case against Netflix. That Reed was taking time to essentially pump his stock -- and that he was doing it on Seeking Alpha -- was very puzzling. More recently, we saw Netflix's price increases for their customers, followed by a sophomoric apology five weeks later.
So, if CEOs like Reed Hastings are not ready to stand and deliver -- answering legitimate analysts' questions on his feet -- you should be very careful."
(in www.realmoney.com)
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Netflix Abandons Qwikster DVD Plan
In the latest twist in the Netflix saga, the company has backed off a plan to offer a separate service for DVDs under the Qwikster name.
Netflix CEO Reed Hastings announced the change Monday on Netflix’s blog, stating, “It is clear that for many of our members two websites would make things more difficult, so we are going to keep Netflix as one place to go for streaming and DVDs. This means no change: one website, one account, one password… in other words, no Qwikster.”
The company also announced it is “done with price changes” after its unpopular decision to raise prices in July.
The move appears to be an acknowledgement that the company’s moves over the past few months have alienated many consumers. In addition to raising prices on consumers who use both the streaming service and DVDs, the company also announced a plan last month to make the two services separate and rebrand the DVD service as Qwikster . The move baffled many and was perhaps further complicated by the fact that Netflix had no control over the @Qwikster Twitter account.
The series of dubious decisions has been hard on Netflix’s stock price, which lost half its value in September.
http://mashable.com/2011/10/10/netflix- ... -qwikster/
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AC Investor Blog Escreveu:ninja1200 Escreveu:Não será um pouco exagero estar a chamar-lhes de incompetentes só porque não ligam ao Twitter?
Pelo contrário as pessoas é que dão demasiada importância ao Twitter sem razão para isso.
Muitas vezes chamei atênção no blog para a o valor irracional a que a Netflix estava a transacionar, nessa altura na casa dos 250-280, quando a maioria dos analistas, davam 300-330, ou seja, davam o pump para a distribuição final....Acho que nunca mais a vamos ver nesses patamares....a não ser que tenham muita sorte com a expansão...mas...mas....
aproveitaste ao menos? eu fui aproveitando...agora estou fora, para aí desde os 130...
mas ainda acho que vai visitar os 70-80 (em particular agora com a historia da divisão da empresa)
mais duas que vão seguir senda igual: BIDU e GMCR!
“Buy high, sell higher...”.
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ninja1200 Escreveu:Não será um pouco exagero estar a chamar-lhes de incompetentes só porque não ligam ao Twitter?
Pelo contrário as pessoas é que dão demasiada importância ao Twitter sem razão para isso.
Muitas vezes chamei atênção no blog para a o valor irracional a que a Netflix estava a transacionar, nessa altura na casa dos 250-280, quando a maioria dos analistas, davam 300-330, ou seja, davam o pump para a distribuição final....
Acho que nunca mais a vamos ver nesses patamares....a não ser que tenham muita sorte com a expansão...mas...mas....AC Investor Blog
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PT_Trader Escreveu:Anunciam a marca, sem antes registar a mesma em tudo e + alguma coisa. Que incompetência...Netflix’s @Qwikster Problem: Twitter Account Controlled by Weed-Smoking Elmo
Netflix’s abrupt change in strategy includes a new name for the company’s DVD-by-mail service — Qwikster. And unsurprisingly Qwikster.com already has a placeholder saying the new service is launching soon.
However, @Qwikster on Twitter was already taken by one Jason Castillo, whose tweets are probably very far from what Netflix’s PR department envisioned for its Twitter promotion.
Jason hasn’t been tweeting much, but his tweets revolve mainly around weed and girls, and are sprinkled with a healthy dose of curse words, as you can see in the examples below.
@Qwikster’s follower count, on the other hand, has quickly risen to more than 500 (@Qwikster himself follows only 59 Twitter users), undoubtedly because some Netflix users followed it thinking it must be the official Twitter account of the new service.
We’re looking forward to seeing how Netflix handles this one, and, of course, we’re eagerly awaiting new tweets from the current @Qwikster owner.
http://mashable.com/2011/09/19/netflix- ... r-twitter/
Não será um pouco exagero estar a chamar-lhes de incompetentes só porque não ligam ao Twitter?
Pelo contrário as pessoas é que dão demasiada importância ao Twitter sem razão para isso.
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zecatreca Escreveu:AC
Estou admirado contigo pah!
Pensava que não entravas com calções(shorts) em acçoes.
Abraço
Pois.... todos pensam o mesmo... e eu prefiro assim.... os curtos este ano superam a rentabilidade dos longos.... NFLX, OPEN, FSLR, JASO, SOL .....
mas nesta fase crucial... já estou a virar longo...em quase tudo...AC Investor Blog
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Tás por um fio para te dar mais uma shortadela !!!
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AC Investor Blog
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Análises Técnicas de activos cotados em Wall Street. Os artigos do AC Investor podem também ser encontrados diariamente nos portais financeiros, Daily Markets, Benzinga, Minyanville, Solar Feeds e Wall Street Pit, sendo editor e contribuidor. Segue-me também no Twitter : http://twitter.com/#!/ACInvestorBlog e subscreve a minha newsletter.
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NFLX cai já 56% desde os maximos de Julho !!! Ouch ...nice short !!!
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AC Investor Blog
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Análises Técnicas de activos cotados em Wall Street. Os artigos do AC Investor podem também ser encontrados diariamente nos portais financeiros, Daily Markets, Benzinga, Minyanville, Solar Feeds e Wall Street Pit, sendo editor e contribuidor. Segue-me também no Twitter : http://twitter.com/#!/ACInvestorBlog e subscreve a minha newsletter.
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Anunciam a marca, sem antes registar a mesma em tudo e + alguma coisa. Que incompetência...
Netflix’s @Qwikster Problem: Twitter Account Controlled by Weed-Smoking Elmo
Netflix’s abrupt change in strategy includes a new name for the company’s DVD-by-mail service — Qwikster. And unsurprisingly Qwikster.com already has a placeholder saying the new service is launching soon.
However, @Qwikster on Twitter was already taken by one Jason Castillo, whose tweets are probably very far from what Netflix’s PR department envisioned for its Twitter promotion.
Jason hasn’t been tweeting much, but his tweets revolve mainly around weed and girls, and are sprinkled with a healthy dose of curse words, as you can see in the examples below.
@Qwikster’s follower count, on the other hand, has quickly risen to more than 500 (@Qwikster himself follows only 59 Twitter users), undoubtedly because some Netflix users followed it thinking it must be the official Twitter account of the new service.
We’re looking forward to seeing how Netflix handles this one, and, of course, we’re eagerly awaiting new tweets from the current @Qwikster owner.
http://mashable.com/2011/09/19/netflix- ... r-twitter/
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Netflix Separates DVD and Streaming Services
By ETHAN SMITH
Netflix Inc. Chief Executive Reed Hastings said in a blog post the company is separating its movie-streaming business and its DVD-by-mail service, to be renamed Qwikster, a move he said was the undisclosed impetus for a recent price increase that outraged customers and sent the company's stock price plummeting.
"I messed up," Mr. Hastings wrote in opening his lengthy, apologetic missive posted late Sunday night on Netflix's website. "I owe everyone an explanation."
A Netflix spokesman said that Qwikster will be a wholly owned subsidiary of Netflix. In the blog post Mr. Hastings wrote that Andrew Rendich, who was chief service and operations officer at Netflix, will become chief executive of Qwikster. He wrote that customers will receive separate credit card statements for the two services, with the new one billed under its new name.
The move, like the controversy that preceded it, highlights the challenges facing even successful companies as they navigate the transition from old media to new media.
Two months ago, Netflix said it would change its pricing structure so that its by-mail and online offerings were essentially sold separately, each starting at $8 a month. Previously customers who got movies by mail and online paid less for the combination than the offerings cost separately.
The change effectively raised many subscribers' monthly charge by 60%, to $16 from $10. Last week, in light of negative reaction to the price increases, the company cut its subscriber forecast by 1 million, or 4%. In response, Netflix's share price plummeted 19%.
Mr. Hastings's explanation for the price changes and the company's failure to explain its impetus took on an introspective tone.
"Inside Netflix I say, 'Actions speak louder than words,' and we should just keep improving our service," he wrote. But he added, "I should have personally given a full justification to our members" for the price increases.
Mr. Hastings wrote that he had been afraid that Netflix might be too slow in its transition from physical media to digital and suffer the fate of the recently bankrupted Borders bookstore chain. For that reason, he said, the company rushed through the first step of separating its two businesses. But he apologized profusely for not explaining why.
"In hindsight, I slid into arrogance based upon past success," Mr. Hastings wrote.
Nonetheless, he promised benefits from the new arrangement. "Each website will be focused on just one thing (DVDs or streaming) and will be even easier to use," he wrote. Qwikster will offer a subscription tier that includes videogame titles for Wii, PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 console systems.
Subscribers of both services will need to duplicate certain actions like changing credit card numbers or rating movies, since the two services will operate completely separately, on separate websites.
Write to Ethan Smith at ethan.smith@wsj.com
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The chart of the week !!! Fechei todas as posições curtas que detinha na NFLX..... Toda bolha arrebenta !!
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A enorme queda de ontem levou-a mesmo direitinha ao suporte que outrora como resistência deu tanto trabalho a vencer. Com tamanha força vendedora este suporte poderá nem sequer fazer frente.
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Apetece dizer...olha o precipic......
Vejam o volume de hoje (5 X normal). Se havia duvidas sobre a inversão tendendcia...
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“Buy high, sell higher...”.
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Após a quebra em baixa da MA40 ameaçou voltar para cima da referida MA mas nas sessões finais da semana passada desmoronou e veio novamente para baixo.
Se quebrar em baixa os $205 em fecho semanal (e uma vez que está a transacionar abaixo da MA40) talvez valha a pena tentar um curto na Netflix. Apartir daí é o mercado que manda...
Cumprimentos
JCS
Se quebrar em baixa os $205 em fecho semanal (e uma vez que está a transacionar abaixo da MA40) talvez valha a pena tentar um curto na Netflix. Apartir daí é o mercado que manda...
Cumprimentos
JCS
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---Tudo o que for por mim escrito expressa apenas a minha opinião pessoal e não é uma recomendação de investimento de qualquer tipo---
https://twitter.com/JCSTrendTrading
"We can confidently predict yesterdays price. Everything else is unknown."
"Every trade is a test"
"Price is the aggregation of everyone's expectations"
"I don't define a good trade as a trade that makes money. I define a good trade as a trade where I did the right thing". (Trend Follower Kevin Bruce, $5000 to $100.000.000 in 25 years).
https://twitter.com/JCSTrendTrading
"We can confidently predict yesterdays price. Everything else is unknown."
"Every trade is a test"
"Price is the aggregation of everyone's expectations"
"I don't define a good trade as a trade that makes money. I define a good trade as a trade where I did the right thing". (Trend Follower Kevin Bruce, $5000 to $100.000.000 in 25 years).
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Netflix Arrives in Latin America
20 minutes ago by Todd Wasserman
Netflix on Monday began offering its video streaming service in Brazil and plans to offer streaming in 43 Latin American and Caribbean countries by September 12.
Netflix’s Brazilian service, in Portuguese, costs 14.99 Brazilian real (about $9.35) a month. On Wednesday a Spanish version of the streaming service will be available in Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay. In Argentina, the service costs 39 Argentine pesos (about $9.28), while in the other two countries, it will cost $7.99 a month. On Thursday, Netflix will add Bolivia, Colombia, Venezuela, Peru and Ecuador.
The company announced the Latin America expansion in June. Previously, the service had only been available in the U.S. Netflix is reportedly planning to launch in Europe in 2012.
The expansion comes as Netflix has faced some challenges in its core market, namely consumer opposition to a new pricing plan announced in July and a reported rival service from the Dish Network. The Dish Network is also said to be bidding on Hulu, which offers a competing streaming service and recently expanded into its first foreign market, Japan. Netflix will also lose content from Starz on February 28.
20 minutes ago by Todd Wasserman
Netflix on Monday began offering its video streaming service in Brazil and plans to offer streaming in 43 Latin American and Caribbean countries by September 12.
Netflix’s Brazilian service, in Portuguese, costs 14.99 Brazilian real (about $9.35) a month. On Wednesday a Spanish version of the streaming service will be available in Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay. In Argentina, the service costs 39 Argentine pesos (about $9.28), while in the other two countries, it will cost $7.99 a month. On Thursday, Netflix will add Bolivia, Colombia, Venezuela, Peru and Ecuador.
The company announced the Latin America expansion in June. Previously, the service had only been available in the U.S. Netflix is reportedly planning to launch in Europe in 2012.
The expansion comes as Netflix has faced some challenges in its core market, namely consumer opposition to a new pricing plan announced in July and a reported rival service from the Dish Network. The Dish Network is also said to be bidding on Hulu, which offers a competing streaming service and recently expanded into its first foreign market, Japan. Netflix will also lose content from Starz on February 28.
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