Banqueiros centrais trazem neblina para Sintra

[alex01]

Não está sempre curto, o facto é que estamos em SELL MODE (de acordo com a terminologia destes setup's) e portanto recomenda-se estar curto.

[Pertinente]

É de mim ou este gajo está sempre curto?

[Dwer]

Market to continue lower today.

Trade Setup Summary for Tuesday, November 4, 2003:
Sell 1055.25/ Cover for +3-5 points.

* Sell BreakOut

Recap of Tuesday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome to Wednesday's session.

Appologies for another short briefing as I get in super late on a flight back from Florida in the middle of the night.

I was able to watch the action in detail from the hotel on Tuesday and although we did not get a large sell off day the underpinnings of what I think are going to occur today started yesterday.

The idea of Tuesday's call was for a sell off that would be done in a way that would not draw public attention. As things went this is what occured but the prices did not go down strong and this is the odd part (and bullish part).

Since the weekend we have had several examples of what in the past would have normally served as very good examples of BEAR UGLY type news. Huge Mutual Fund scandals and indeed even an individual case against a Major Large Fund combined with the terrifying news and insecurity in Iraq.

We had an oddball incident of a young executive throwing a brick through a window in a building across from the Capital building and also another odd incident of a direct face to face shooting of an attorney (where luckily and also oddly again a tree blocked the bullets). Are people going nuts or what? YET, in spite of all of these larger and smaller shocks...no drop in the markets. This is actually bullish seeing the market absorb these larger news stories and NOT drop.

So what will be the catalyst for a larger scale drop we think we may see today.

On Tuesday the market pulled back after hitting the BreakOut again as the first Hour One pivot and we were able to sqeeze up to +5 points out of the deal. High Five were neutral/Bearish especially the TRIN showing readings above 1.50.

Something could happen today to spark the lower prices or we may just get a nice, ordinary pullback.

Today's Call & Briefing:
Be on the lookout today for the lower price action using practically the EXACT SAME GUIDANCE AS WE GAVE ON YESTERDAYS BRIEFING.

Kindly review yesterdays briefing for the numbers and TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR to use for today. Just go to our site at www.21stcenturyfutures.com and after entering your user name and ID click on the "Morning Call Archives" and you want 11/03/03.

The only real difference for today's action is that we are not expecting a repeat of the BreakOut sell off. Therefore if that is the case we will hit the BreakDown today.

IF WE DO NOT GET A BEAR UGLY SETUP OFF THE OPEN THEN WE WILL NEED TO BUY THE BREAKDOWN IF THAT IS THE FIRST HOUR ONE PIVOT HIT.

If they do sell off early on a gap lower opening also watch for the idea we have given before of a "Sneak Down Bear Ugly". The whole point of what I am trying to convey in the last two briefings is that the market is poised to lose 30 handles here. That is the fact.

How they do that is either with a fast, hard SHOCK DROP or through the gradual sneak down erosion so that the rest of the public doesn't get aboard on the bearish side.

It's stands without reason that these are not easy setups to trade. They are similar to what I call the "leveling up" bull market turn around phases like the one we had in the middle of the recent so-called Iraq War a few months ago. When the market turned around internally prices just sort of "leveled up" in chunks or "levels" without the public really able to strategize on how to get in. You had to be long before and as it was occuring or you didn't make money on the long side.

We have a similar situation RIGHT NOW going into the sell side. The only other thing that is going on is that with all this bad news being ignored they are going to take em up to 1089.00 area without anyone seeing it coming.

I am inclined strongly towards the downside support of 1030 being seen first.

Value Area: 1,051.50 - 1,054.30
Trade below 1051.50 will be bearish for today. Trade that holds above 1054.30 is mildly bullish but if prices pull back into the VA then it is bearish once again.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,049.25 - 1,050.25
No trade at this pivot but as stated on yesterday's briefing watch for the lower -4.25 at 1045.00 to signal the bear attack and look for a reflex reversal to get short as this Buy Pivot becomes Sell resistance.

If they open through the 1045.00 area on the open then we will look to get short on any bounce up to this pivot for a reversal to "Buy Pivot becomes Sell resistance".

Sell Pivot Target: 1,056.25 - 1,055.25
Over night the prices are lower in the 1047-48 zone so if we get a rally back up to this price early then look to sell. If this does not occur in the first hour and the BreakDown occurs first then we will not be using this Sell Pivot Target as an initial trade of the day.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,041.50
With the overnight trading if this price is close to being hit we could plow through it to the downside taking out the strong 1039.00 support area. We would then look for a pretty solid trip to the 1030.00 next support which would most likely stall and finish off the first phase of the lower pattern.

Pro Trader's Action
There is the chance we could get the strong lower action we are expecting off the open today. If it is an early fast move to lower prices WITHOUT THE BAD NEWS ASSOCIATED WITH A BEAR UGLY DAY then support could come in on the BreakDown Hour One pivot (minus 2-4 points).

Let's see how things pan out on the open, if there is bad news follow through to "explain" the lower drop, and be aware of the two scenarios mentioned for taking the market lower. The Sneak Down aspect should be prominent.

Good luck today and again appologies for the short briefing. Had to get this in right away to meet our schedule for getting today's briefing to your E Mailbox on time.

I'll see you in the action. Mohan