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[Elias]

Este artigo poderia servir para qualquer tópico onde se explica porquê que nenhum país quer a sua moeda muito forte

Pata, com base neste raciocínio, quando aqueles engraçadinhos dos políticos e quejandos criticam as agências de rating por estarem, alegadamente, a atacar o Euro para o enfraquecer, das duas uma: ou não sabem o que estão a dizer ou então é demagogia barata para agradar ao povo (ou as duas coisas )

[Pata-Hari]

Este artigo poderia servir para qualquer tópico onde se explica porquê que nenhum país quer a sua moeda muito forte e poderia também ser usado quando a Alemanha se queixa dos países fracos do Euros e se esquece do que a Alemanha beneficia dessa fraqueza da moeda.

Monetary Policy: Switzerland wants to weaken the franc

The strength of the Swiss franc could stifle the economy, reduce exports and slowing consumer spending. An unexpected easing of monetary policy to curb the appreciation.
By Susanne Preuss and Gerald Braunberger

The Swiss National Bank on Wednesday with a totally unexpected easing of monetary policy, the attempt made to stop the very strong appreciation of the franc against the euro and the dollar. The National Bank to consider francs? Massively overvalued, “says a release. The strength of the franc threatens the economic development and increase the risk of deflation in Switzerland?. The National Bank has an ongoing tightening of the monetary policy framework does not passively “

The National Bank wants the already low interest rate cut still further . For its target size, the three-month interbank money market, it strives thus becoming a target band of 0 to 0.25 per cent instead of at 0 to 0.75 percent. At the same time more francs in the money market will be available. The National Bank does so through an increase in the money market operations from the commercial banks at the National Bank held deposits of about 30 to 80 billion francs. In response to the announcement, the euro appreciated against the Swiss franc on Wednesday morning at around 3 percent. However, most of that was lost in afternoon trading profits again.



The risk of stalling
The Swiss economy is still standing, but the strong Swiss franc is shrinking corporate profits. ? Have exports in the first half of the year increased strongly, however, export prices dropped, “said Alexis Körber, an economist at the research institute BAK Basel. ? It is certainly the danger that the economy is stalling, “Koerber expected. By next year, a substantial slowdown will be felt. The export rate in Switzerland is at least at 37 percent, with the loss of two thirds of exports to the European Union.

Because the franc is overvalued clear it go not only an economic, but rather a structural risk Körber warns:? It could be that the company restructure and outsource jobs abroad. That would not be reversed. “

The issue of relocation
employs the Swiss also emotionally. Then presented Nayla Hayek, President of the Swatch watch company, as guarantor for the whereabouts in Switzerland? We have a Swiss company with Swiss production and we want those jobs in Switzerland, “Hayek said recently. This attitude can not afford all the companies in the long run. Especially the chemical and pharmaceutical industry, one of the strongest sectors of the economy of Switzerland, are under pressure, researchers reported bak Körber and notes that are relatively stiff, particularly in heavily regulated business with the prices of medicines.



Less tourists because of high prices
Some businesses already respond with emergency measures. Thus, the pharmaceutical supplier Lonza working at the site since July 41 has increased from Visp to 43 hours. From September to the 280 employees are quartered in Franke kitchen specialists to work 2.5 hours more per week. The cases have been anecdotal but rather, in the opinion of Körber.

While today no longer a € 1.10 francs to be paid, the price was still a half years ago at 1.50 €. Can respond so quickly, especially consumers – and they do it well. The Swiss retailer moan, because consumers will drive in border areas to Germany, Austria, France and Italy for shopping. The chain retailer Coop has reduced as a backlash since the beginning of 2200 prices. Nevertheless, it is worth shopping tourism. A tube of Nivea sun cream, in this country costs less than 10 €, will be sold in Switzerland for 19 francs. Even handkerchiefs cost twice as much. It was hit twice Coop, a spokeswoman said: In the tourist areas because of the strong franc less tourists, and they chat with the shop because of high prices back

[Elias]

Agora já estão praticamente a zero e deixam de ter margem de manobra...

[Pata-Hari]

Foi isto:

UPDATE 5-SNB cuts rates to counter soaring Swiss franc
Published: Wednesday, 3 Aug 2011 | 1:14 PM ET Text Size

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By Katie Reid and Martin de Sa'Pinto ZURICH, Aug 3 (Reuters) - The Swiss National Bank announced a shock cut in interest rates and threatened more action to cap a soaring Swiss franc, but the impact was expected to be short-lived given the currency's safe-haven appeal amid mounting concerns about global growth. The SNB said on Wednesday it would cut its target rate to "as close to zero as possible" from an already rock-bottom 0.25 percent, and said it would very significantly increase the supply of francs to the money market over the next few days. It said it would not tolerate the effective tightening of monetary conditions imposed by what it called a "massively overvalued" franc which was threatening economic growth and increasing downside risks to price stability. "The SNB is keeping a close watch on developments on the foreign exchange market and will take further measures against the strength of the Swiss franc if necessary," the bank said. The euro jumped 2.5 percent versus its Swiss counterpart after hitting a new record low before the SNB news. The dollar also rose sharply. But the franc recouped most of its losses later in the day. "These measures will probably not bring a halt to the Swiss franc's appreciation," said Neil Mellor, currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon.

"It will be a hard-fought battle for the SNB and at most this will slow the pace of appreciation." With low-debt Switzerland seen as a safe haven from an escalating euro zone debt crisis and fears of a U.S. rating downgrade, the franc has surged 18 percent against the euro and 22 percent against the dollar in recent months. The yen has also jumped nearly 5 percent in the last month and Japanese officials kept markets on guard for currency intervention and monetary easing on Wednesday. But the SNB is the first central bank to cut rates since the global economic outlook deteriorated with expectations for higher rates from the European Central Bank and U.S. Federal Reserve pushed back since signs emerged of a new slowdown. "It's a very difficult situation for them with the ongoing issues in the periphery in Europe. The Swiss franc is a sort of default option here," said Henrik Gullberg of Deutsche Bank. "That is unlikely to go away as long as we have these issues in Europe." SWISS EXPORTERS SQUEEZED Swiss exporters have called on both the SNB and the government to take action against the currency's steep rise although the bank has also been criticised for the heavy losses it incurred in its post-crisis interventions in 2009 and 2010. Nick Hayek, chief executive of watch maker Swatch, who has been one of the most outspoken about the impact of the strong franc, welcomed the SNB move. "This is wonderful. Speculators should brace themselves," he told Reuters. The Swiss government said in a statement it had discussed the impact of the latest rise in the franc on the economy during a phone conference on Wednesday and welcomed the measures the SNB had taken to fight the "overvaluation" of the franc. The SNB said in a separate statement that the global economic outlook had worsened since its last monetary policy meeting in June, while the sharp rise in the franc meant the outlook for the Swiss economy had "deteriorated substantially". SNB Chairman Philipp Hildebrand, who has faced calls to resign after the bank ran up huge losses from currency interventions, told Swiss television action had been needed given the danger posed to the economy from the strong franc. The euro was up 1 percent to 1.0961 at 1620 GMT after hitting a record low of 1.0794 before the SNB announcement. The dollar gave up most of its earlier gains to trade up 0.2 percent at 0.7654 per franc. After the Swiss franc rose about 12 percent against the euro in July alone, economists began to warn that a recession could be looming in Switzerland with forward-looking indicators such as the KOF economic barometer pointing to a slowdown. Analysts said the SNB could resume the foreign exchange interventions it stopped in June 2010, even though its previous attempts were seen by many as an expensive failure. "Maybe the threat of intervention will force people to look for other potential safe havens," said Lloyds Banking Group currency strategist Adrian Schmidt. The SNB said last week it suffered a 9.9 billion Swiss franc ($12.8 billion) first-half loss on its foreign exchange holdings due to the surging franc, increasing criticism of Hildebrand and making interventions politically more difficult. Christoph Blocher, a leading figure in the right-wing Swiss People's Party, launched a new attack on Hildebrand on Sunday, saying the SNB boss behaved like a speculator and was not qualified for the job. Before the big franc jump, Swiss interest rate futures had priced in the possibility of a first post-crisis rate hike for September, but Wednesday's news pushed back expectations for a rise in the rate target to 0.5 percent to June 2013. To increase liquidity to the franc money market, the SNB also said it would expand banks' sight deposits at the SNB and would no longer renew repos and SNB bills that fall due and will repurchase outstanding SNB bills. (Writing by Emma Thomasson and Catherine Bosley; editing by Mike Peacock) ($1 = 0.771 Swiss Francs) Keywords: SWISS SNB/ (Zurich newsroom +41.58.306.7336, fax +41 44 251 0476, zurich.newsroom@news.reuters.com) COPYRIGHT Copyright Thomson Reuters 2011. All rights reserved.

The copying, republication or redistribution of Reuters News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters.

[thedaytrader]

Parece que houve um panic sell no Eur/Chf


http://adf.ly/2H1N7

[migluso]

Isto quer dizer que é altura de as pessoas venderem CHF, antes que a Suíça mande o seu valor abaixo?

Bem, logo agora que eu tinha pensado em tem algum $ em CHF...

Se eu soubesse a resposta...

Mas pelo que já li, alguns analistas prevêem que taxas de juros reais negativas terão um impacto bastante superior (serão mais efectivas na desvalorização do franco) às intervenções que o SNB levou a cabo durante os últimos anos.

A não ser que algo de muito grave esteja para acontecer e os investidores prefiram pagar para ter o património em francos em vez de o capitalizar noutra moeda qualquer...

[ruicarlov]

Isto quer dizer que é altura de as pessoas venderem CHF, antes que a Suíça mande o seu valor abaixo?

Bem, logo agora que eu tinha pensado em tem algum $ em CHF...

[migluso]

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2011/08/0 ... unication/

[nfmarque]

O aviso do chf ja vem bem de tras. Alem disso a subida do ouro e da moeda de refugio (chf) demonstra que os mercados não dão AAA aos estados unidos.

ps : Estou muito contente com a minha conta em chf com 0.21% de juro.

bons trades

[djovarius]

Boa noite,

Nem vou intervir hoje no tópico EUR/USD porque ainda está num intervalo "normal".

Estes movimentos do CHF são indicadores de procura por "hedge", quase pânico, dir-se-ía.
A amplitude dos movimentos dá-se devido à falta de liquidez.
Uma mão cheia de especuladores a comprar dá origem a isso. Estamos a falar de um "cross rate" com 5% do movimento do EUR/USD.

Mas não se pode negar que os mercados antecipam novamente tempos difíceis.

Abraço de Verão

dj

[Elias]

Está a cair mais de 2,5% hoje, não é frequente ver quedas desta magnitude no par.

[fcaseiro]

Fecho de posicao take profits 1,09; novos minimos 1,0848

[Elias]

já não anda muito longe da paridade

[paubo]

Gráfico semanal actualizado. Só dá mesmo para sul...impressionante a queda desde abril!

[fcaseiro]

Novos mínimos 1,10253 a caminho da paridade stop no low Mac anterior 1,14907 com trailing stop no diferencial:mrgreen: [/u]

[Elias]

Parece que temos ressalto: abriu quase nos 1,14

[fcaseiro]

Novos mínimos 1,13,21 novo target 1,09

[fcaseiro]

Minimos a continuarem curto a 1,15 target novos minimos 1,12

[Pata-Hari]

Rui, à partida, isto estabiliza o euro durante algum tempo e o CHF deverá recuar quanto mais não seja temporariamente. No entanto, nota que isso se deve ter notado já nos últimos dias dado que os mercados começaram a apostar que a cimeira traria algo de positivo a partir de quarta-feira.

[ruicarlov]

Esta decisão da União sobre o novo plano de ajuda à Grécia e o aliviar dos prazos e juros das dívidas dos PIIGS certamente veio alterar alguma coisa.
Este tipo de decisão e de entendimente é uma coisa que dê credibilidade ao Euro ou pelo contrário o porá mais vulnerável face a outras moedas?

[rubini]

Boas,

A médio / longo prazo qual acham que vai ser a evolução do CHF face ao EUR. Será que vai continuar a valorizar, atingindo mesmo a paridade?
Não será que a actual crise do EUR, não tornará ainda mais o CHF como uma moeda de refugio, com um comportamento equivalente ao do Ouro?

Obrigado pelas opiniões.

Jorge Mota

É muito difícil fazer um padrão de LP, especialmente no que diz respeito a moedas. Em acções, pode-se falar no LP baseando-se em Análise Técnica e Análise Fundamental mas em moedas há muitas mais variáveis que infuenciam. Há muito mais política e sensibilidade a tudo um pouco, e isso traz mais volatilidade do que o mercado accionista.

Do meu ponto de vista (sublinho meu), julgo que o CHF tem margem para valorizar ainda mais face ao Euro por uma razão muito simples: a instabilidade e a falta de poder político decisório na Zona Euro está a fragilizar muito o Euro, inclusivé do ponto de vista da credibilidade. Mesmo que haja solução eficaz para a Zona Euro em breve para toda esta crise e a tempestade aparentar passar ou amainar, ainda vai haver algum tempo cá no fundo.

A moeda suíça está no oposto do Euro em termos de credibilidade, segurança e estabilidade. Neste momento está a servir de refúgio face ao Dólar e ao Euro numa altura em que o Yuan/Remnibi ainda não se assume como divisa estável mundial. Acho que há condições para isto se manter mais algum tempo.

Resumindo: acho que o percurso do CHF daqui em diante e nos próximos meses vai ser idêntico ao percurso da Onça de Ouro (simétrico, de um ponto de vista dos gráficos).

Agora não me arrisco a tentar adivinhar para cenários superiores a 3 anos, ainda para mais num cenário instável como o actual. A 1 ano de distância vejo a paridade como possível (e há muita gente a dizer o mesmo), a 2 anos idem mas com mais probabilidade de alguma recuperação do Euro, a partir daí já não aposto.

Mas hey, isto é apenas instinto pessoal. Good luck!

[jomimota]

Boas,

A médio / longo prazo qual acham que vai ser a evolução do CHF face ao EUR. Será que vai continuar a valorizar, atingindo mesmo a paridade?
Não será que a actual crise do EUR, não tornará ainda mais o CHF como uma moeda de refugio, com um comportamento equivalente ao do Ouro?

Obrigado pelas opiniões.

Jorge Mota

[MVP]

Novos mínimos

Só acompanho este par e o EUR/USD mas acho que ultimamente tem sido muito mais segura a entrada curta neste.

[Metallising_]

Sim, o desempenho tem sido excelente!
Felizmente vivo perto da fronteira com França, o que me permite ir às compras no país vizinho aproveitando os saldos cambiais. Não podia ter "fugido" de Portugal em melhor altura

[Elias]

Já temos o EURCHF a 1,19 (e foi a 1,18 em Junho).

A paridade já esteve mais longe...