IRS. Leia as respostas do consultório financeiro às suas perguntas

[Dwer]

Continue to trade on the short side as the slow holiday volume ends and we expect to see the market move lower.
Trade Setup Summary for Monday, October 13, 2003:
Sell 1046-1047.00 / Cover for up to +6 pts.

*Sell recommended resistance +4.25 over the Sell Pivot target at 1047.25 Cover at the B/D or lower.

Recap of Monday's Action:
Good morning and thank you for joining with us today.

On our Headline Call on Monday we were originally not going to offer any trade ideas but the strong sell signals I got while doing my nightly "homework" on Sunday night said we better consider working the sell side some more. Lucky we did as there was some strong earlier pressure to the downside. Now obviously Monday was nothing to write home about but those who were in the live action could see the Sell Force manifesting once the prices hit resistance right at our exact mentioned resistance area around 1047-48.

Based on our clear recommendation to NOT sell the Sell Pivot target but look to sell near the +4.25 stop/pivot you could have gotten a nice short off and seen a decent pullback of a bit over 6 points as the prices headed down to hit the BreakDown as the first Hour One pivot.

Once they hit the B/D minus 2 points support came in and on the second attempt later in the day to penetrate the lows you would have wanted to cover the trade when prices couldn't strongly punch through the lows.

The Problem with lower prices manifesting? Well, very obvious. You had a bullish High Five, a NAZ that dropped some and then recovered and that support at the OPENING PRICE we spoke about in relation to the TRIN sell.

A quick note on the TRIN SELL gauge: Now that we are on Day 2 of the TRIN Sell Gauge (which is how long the idea lasts) we can often see the prices move in the direction of the original trade direction as long as the prices didn't "stop out" the idea (which would have been 12-15 points higher). So we shall continue to watch for prices to hold below the open of Monday (1042.50 area) for the lower move to be intact.

So on balance, not a bad day on Monday as we sqeezed up to +6 points out of a 7.80 range day. Our Headline Call was looking for a stronger sell off day but the truth is the Holiday volume DID continue to dominate and things just stagnated after the earlier sell off from the Highs.

Today's Call & Briefing:
Now today as we are back on track with the regular volume of the U.S. trading community we should see things get smacked lower as planned.

If yesterday was a hint then you can see there is some selling waiting in the wings ready to let the air out of the markets. Now one thing of note: We had noticed on Friday that there was some strong underlying loading of Bearish positions and hence the switch to us wanting to trade the holiday action. Now if we are/were correct in spotting that then we should see some stronger selling forces unleashed here today.

Usually if I am correct in seeing this one thing is for sure: those insiders DON'T WANT THE PUBLIC TO JOIN THEM IN THE SELLOFF. So things are disguised OR if the selling gets going too fast...the market will stall and pause a bit to collect more bulls.

I had noticed on Monday's action that when the strong spike candles lower started occuring the mood of those who were trading was very quick to move to the bearish side of the sentiment.

So we need to watch this for Tuesday. IE: Will the bears start jumping on the sell side too quickly? If so it will cause the support to come in again. The key is to see if the TRIN and the VIX are cooperating in a sell off scenario. THIS CERTAINLY WAS NOT THE CASE ON MONDAY.

Always remember: If you are in a trade that has been held for a while and you see that your trade direction is fighting the High Five then be ready to get out of that trade on the next move in your favor. As you get more experienced over the years you may be able to even reverse the trade but this is not recommended until later after you have studied our methods for at least a few years.

TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: We are going to be on the lookout once again for a sharp sell off in prices today. How that will manifest could be in the form of a Bear Ugly day right off the opening or another Sell off from the BreakOut.

Look to sell the BreakOut if we get a move higher that is not forming a Bullish BreakOut with the Dow flat (under +50 at the time of the B/O) and the NAZ strong being up +12-15 or more. Otherwise let's look to sell the B/O if that is the first Hour One Pivot hit.

Read in the Trading Handbook the rules for a Bear Ugly scenario and watch for that off the open with some unusual strong, bad news which is affecting the markets. We are not in an environment for that right now but these Bear Ugly days usually come right out of left field when we least expect them. I try and call them for you but you just always have to be prepared for the surprise.

If we get a hard, fast drop today near the opening half hour to one hour then we are going to have to face that it occured too quick and look to buy the B/D or a bit lower if the High Five are real bearish. Good luck.

Value Area: 1,042.00 - 1,046.20
We have the majority of price volume facilitation up in this area on Monday and so this Value Area will form a strong support area. Trade below this area will set up the lower move under the 1039.00 area especially.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,040.25 - 1,041.25
No trade at this target today. Let's be on the lookout for a reversal to the sell side on a move through the -4.25 stop/pivot at 1036.00 and then a reflex rally back to the Buy Pivot target. This would happen on a fast, strong dive that punched prices decisively below 1036.00.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,048.25 - 1,047.25
I am a little concerned selling them right here directly near the opening IF PRICES OPEN UP IN THIS AREA. Still I am also inclined to take the chance to go short. So I think the best thing to do here is to let them pop through 1048.25 run up some, hold the +4.25 stop/pivot at 1052.50, and then drop back to the Sell Pivot target area or slightly higher to initiate our short. Work around this idea and like on Monday let's see if we can get short up a bit higher for the sell off action.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,028.80
Notice how the gap between the closing prices and the Pit Bull is starting to close a little more rapidly? Usually this is a sign that we are going to go and get into the CROSSOVER ALERT area of 10 points above the Pit Bull on the close. You can see that we would only need a close of 1039.00 or lower to accomplish this. So let's see if this closing of the gap is a sign of lower prices to come.

Pro Trader's Action
For those of you who follow our daily Morning Call briefings carefully, you would know that we are currently in a "Buy Mode" on the Market Force indicators but we are looking for an aberration to set in which would cause the rallies to get hit with selling. We are seeing signs of this starting to occur with the action last Thursday, Friday and now Monday. Although the force is pushing prices higher still you can see that the QUICK MOVEMENTS are coming from the sell side. If this is to FULLY manifest then anytime we should see a larger scale, more shocking type, sell off.

This could occur today so let's stay alert for that action.

All the best of luck and success today and I'll see you in the action.

Mohan