Mohan 10/10/03
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Mohan 10/10/03
Watch for an early, fast drop in the markets to reverse off the lows. An early push higher should continue to sell off but be on alert for a Bear Ugly day today.
Recap of Thursday's Action:
Good morning. We have a lot going on today after seeing yesterdays rally fizzle out substantially mid session.
We had mentioned on yesterday's breifing that it was vital for prices to move higher in order to not only clean out the excessive Bears but also to get the Bulls loaded on the wrong side of the market.
Well, that is exactly what the market did as it was "mission accomplished" with a nice gap up and an early push higher to stretch up to the 1047.00 area. This exact action forced the Bears to scramble for cover and the Bulls to get gleeful with the appearance of a big rally at hand which is exactly what we needed to see em get squashed lower.
Of course, for those of us reading these Morning Call Briefings we knew EXACTLY what to expect and sold the BreakOut of the Hour One Highs. Due to the very bullish nature of the High Five and with the Dow already up well over +50 our goal would have been to add 2-4 points to the B/O and sell em there.
Because of the large leap higher usually under such circumstances it is wise when we continue to advise selling the rallies to hit em right at the B/O. Why? Simply because the market has already over compensated for the bullish High Five. It's always nice to get the slightly better prices above the B/O but on days like these if you want to get short in a bad way you just got to nail em.
The market put a little heat on the 6 point stop above the exact B/O of 1044.50 but it was relatively painless. The application of our idea of "professional patience" on Thursday was nicely rewarded as the prices proceeded to fizzle out strongly later in the session.
Although the High Five was bullish our Headline Call and commentary was clearly for continuing to sell the rallies and this is based on our 18 proprietary indicators which we calculate to create the Headline.
Today's Call & Briefing:
Today our Headline Call is more elaborate then usual and that is because we are going to be looking for one of 3 different scenarios to pan out.
First, there is a strong chance of the market making a fast, early lower move and if this occurs we expect the large early drop to find buyers and push off the lows. Now notice, I didn't say "rally" or for the day to end up an Up Day but just push off the lows. This could be tradeable IF we get the BreakDown as the first Hour One pivot and we do NOT see a clear Bear Ugly day unfolding.
The second aspect is that we would see a Bear Ugly day unfolding right off the opening with some surprise negative news that has the stock market reeling and heading strongly lower. WE ARE RIPE FOR SUCH A DAY TODAY with the way the numbers and previous days action have setup.
Next, if we get an early move higher then we are expecting continued erosion of prices and will look to trade it accordingly and would probably see this duplicate the "Sneak Down" Bear Ugly type scenario. We may also see the type of day where they blow through the -4.25 pivot off the Buy Pivot Target ( 1032.00-4.25=1027.75), reflex rally back to the Buy Pivot target which has now become our Sell resistance point and they take em down 8-10 lower from there.
Whew! I know that is a lot to look for today but that is what is CLEARLY being told to me by our 18 proprietary indicators. One of these 3 scenarios is most likely to set up and we will know exactly what to do when it occurs.
As described above let's hit the Bear Ugly day with a short on the B/D with very ugly news and heavy Mega Bearish High Five.
An early rally or higher push up in prices needs to be sold and we want to do that at the Sell Pivot Target if they can punch em up there again at the 1045 area. If not and they miss that area then watch the top of the Value Area as being a strong point of resistance as they move em lower. Getting some more bulls involved would be great and only add to the lower crunch in prices like you saw on Thursday.
If they smoke em down early hard and fast then we will be looking for the BreakDown to be a Buy spot if the whole setup is NOT Bear Ugly with no strong bad news supporting the move but only price reaction based. Subtract 2-4 points if the High Five is bearish and get a better price if you know how to do this.
Value Area: 1,033.50 - 1,043.50
Watch for strong resistance up at the top of the VA here today and for bearish action if they push prices below the VA low and hold em lower.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,032.00 - 1,033.00
No trade at this target today. This is the bottom of the VA so watch for prices to blow through the 927.50 stop/pivot and then reflex rally back to the 1031.00 area to sell AFTER the first hour has passed. IE: They pop the number out to the downside BUT WAIT TO SELL UNTIL THE FIRST HOUR HAS PASSED AT 1031.00. Got it? Ok, cool.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,046.00 - 1,045.00
Sell em here today in the first hour or whenever they happen to get up here if they do. Use a 5 point stop and look for more selling.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,020.10
We are slowly but surely closing in on the Pit Bull. Nothing close yet but you can see the gap closing. Look for lower moves today to get us even closer to a "Crossover Alert". This is where prices close within 10 handles of the Pit Bull and we issue an alert to watch for the action to move quickly to the other side of the 10 day moving average.
Pro Trader's Action
I am thrilled to say that we are nearly sold out our Del Rey Beach, Florida seminar and I thank you all very much.
WE STILL HAVE SOME SEATS LEFT so if you are strongly considering to come please call the office today at (800)806-4801 to reserve you seat and organize your stay at the hotel.
I am getting flooded with emails from attendees of the San Diego seminar telling me how they have taken a MEGA LEAP in their understanding of the TCF Briefings. I will not be doing any more seminars this year or in 2004 of this type so please come if you are serious about our work. You will be able to pay for the seminar and all expenses in just a few trades on the right side of the market.
I will not leave the property until all your questions are answered to the best of my ability. It is my personal life philosophy and committment to working as hard as I can when I put on a seminar to make sure all attendees are pleased with what they learned. Ideally I will be able to meet many of you in person and give you some additional ideas to assist you. Right Akasha!
Let's see if the market gives us a chance to get short again today to see prices get pushed to lower levels.
Good luck and all the best of success. Mohan
Recap of Thursday's Action:
Good morning. We have a lot going on today after seeing yesterdays rally fizzle out substantially mid session.
We had mentioned on yesterday's breifing that it was vital for prices to move higher in order to not only clean out the excessive Bears but also to get the Bulls loaded on the wrong side of the market.
Well, that is exactly what the market did as it was "mission accomplished" with a nice gap up and an early push higher to stretch up to the 1047.00 area. This exact action forced the Bears to scramble for cover and the Bulls to get gleeful with the appearance of a big rally at hand which is exactly what we needed to see em get squashed lower.
Of course, for those of us reading these Morning Call Briefings we knew EXACTLY what to expect and sold the BreakOut of the Hour One Highs. Due to the very bullish nature of the High Five and with the Dow already up well over +50 our goal would have been to add 2-4 points to the B/O and sell em there.
Because of the large leap higher usually under such circumstances it is wise when we continue to advise selling the rallies to hit em right at the B/O. Why? Simply because the market has already over compensated for the bullish High Five. It's always nice to get the slightly better prices above the B/O but on days like these if you want to get short in a bad way you just got to nail em.
The market put a little heat on the 6 point stop above the exact B/O of 1044.50 but it was relatively painless. The application of our idea of "professional patience" on Thursday was nicely rewarded as the prices proceeded to fizzle out strongly later in the session.
Although the High Five was bullish our Headline Call and commentary was clearly for continuing to sell the rallies and this is based on our 18 proprietary indicators which we calculate to create the Headline.
Today's Call & Briefing:
Today our Headline Call is more elaborate then usual and that is because we are going to be looking for one of 3 different scenarios to pan out.
First, there is a strong chance of the market making a fast, early lower move and if this occurs we expect the large early drop to find buyers and push off the lows. Now notice, I didn't say "rally" or for the day to end up an Up Day but just push off the lows. This could be tradeable IF we get the BreakDown as the first Hour One pivot and we do NOT see a clear Bear Ugly day unfolding.
The second aspect is that we would see a Bear Ugly day unfolding right off the opening with some surprise negative news that has the stock market reeling and heading strongly lower. WE ARE RIPE FOR SUCH A DAY TODAY with the way the numbers and previous days action have setup.
Next, if we get an early move higher then we are expecting continued erosion of prices and will look to trade it accordingly and would probably see this duplicate the "Sneak Down" Bear Ugly type scenario. We may also see the type of day where they blow through the -4.25 pivot off the Buy Pivot Target ( 1032.00-4.25=1027.75), reflex rally back to the Buy Pivot target which has now become our Sell resistance point and they take em down 8-10 lower from there.
Whew! I know that is a lot to look for today but that is what is CLEARLY being told to me by our 18 proprietary indicators. One of these 3 scenarios is most likely to set up and we will know exactly what to do when it occurs.
As described above let's hit the Bear Ugly day with a short on the B/D with very ugly news and heavy Mega Bearish High Five.
An early rally or higher push up in prices needs to be sold and we want to do that at the Sell Pivot Target if they can punch em up there again at the 1045 area. If not and they miss that area then watch the top of the Value Area as being a strong point of resistance as they move em lower. Getting some more bulls involved would be great and only add to the lower crunch in prices like you saw on Thursday.
If they smoke em down early hard and fast then we will be looking for the BreakDown to be a Buy spot if the whole setup is NOT Bear Ugly with no strong bad news supporting the move but only price reaction based. Subtract 2-4 points if the High Five is bearish and get a better price if you know how to do this.
Value Area: 1,033.50 - 1,043.50
Watch for strong resistance up at the top of the VA here today and for bearish action if they push prices below the VA low and hold em lower.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,032.00 - 1,033.00
No trade at this target today. This is the bottom of the VA so watch for prices to blow through the 927.50 stop/pivot and then reflex rally back to the 1031.00 area to sell AFTER the first hour has passed. IE: They pop the number out to the downside BUT WAIT TO SELL UNTIL THE FIRST HOUR HAS PASSED AT 1031.00. Got it? Ok, cool.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,046.00 - 1,045.00
Sell em here today in the first hour or whenever they happen to get up here if they do. Use a 5 point stop and look for more selling.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,020.10
We are slowly but surely closing in on the Pit Bull. Nothing close yet but you can see the gap closing. Look for lower moves today to get us even closer to a "Crossover Alert". This is where prices close within 10 handles of the Pit Bull and we issue an alert to watch for the action to move quickly to the other side of the 10 day moving average.
Pro Trader's Action
I am thrilled to say that we are nearly sold out our Del Rey Beach, Florida seminar and I thank you all very much.
WE STILL HAVE SOME SEATS LEFT so if you are strongly considering to come please call the office today at (800)806-4801 to reserve you seat and organize your stay at the hotel.
I am getting flooded with emails from attendees of the San Diego seminar telling me how they have taken a MEGA LEAP in their understanding of the TCF Briefings. I will not be doing any more seminars this year or in 2004 of this type so please come if you are serious about our work. You will be able to pay for the seminar and all expenses in just a few trades on the right side of the market.
I will not leave the property until all your questions are answered to the best of my ability. It is my personal life philosophy and committment to working as hard as I can when I put on a seminar to make sure all attendees are pleased with what they learned. Ideally I will be able to meet many of you in person and give you some additional ideas to assist you. Right Akasha!
Let's see if the market gives us a chance to get short again today to see prices get pushed to lower levels.
Good luck and all the best of success. Mohan
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Abraço,
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
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