Cramer- "Wild Theories Take Less Work, Make Less Money&
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Cramer- "Wild Theories Take Less Work, Make Less Money&
"Wild Theories Take Less Work, Make Less Money"
By James J. Cramer
10/08/2003 08:40 AM EDT
"If you lay the Nikkei from 1988 to 2001 over the Nasdaq you will discover that the two are very much alike. ... If you consider the action now vs. the action in 1999, you will see the same type of blow-off top. ... Just like in 1987, we have the combustible dollar about to cause a crash of mythic proportions.
I get these "epiphanies" emailed to me all the time. I used to debate their authors. I used to explain why these theories might not produce the "desired" result. But I don't waste my time or anyone else's time with these anymore. Because when you think like this, you are "locked into" the belief. You can't get out. You are dogmatic in your creed and can't see that maybe not everything is the same. You are blinded to opportunities that may present themselves.
Yet, people persist in having a single thesis that will define the market. Sure, I see the overlay of the Nazz and Japan. Big deal. We are not in Japan. I notice that there is some blow-off action in the Nazz, but nowhere near the action we had in 1999, and the analogy is simply ridiculous. The dollar now and in 1987? We had some stupid policymakers in the Treasury Department at the time; maybe Snow is going to join them, maybe he isn't. I hope he doesn't. If he does, I will deal with it.
Each situation is different. You simply can't extrapolate something as simple and convenient as a chart or a graph or a day's worth of action and think that it is going to produce something that will allow you to coin money. It doesn't work that way.
Why do people keep doing it? I have my theory: It sure beats homework. It isn't time-consuming. Like all dogmatic treatises, once it is memorized, you can go on autopilot. You don't have to kick the tires endlessly and you don't have to revisit and make more calls and have more views illuminated.
In short, it is easy. And lazy.
Lazy stinks in this business."
(in www.realmoney.com)
By James J. Cramer
10/08/2003 08:40 AM EDT
"If you lay the Nikkei from 1988 to 2001 over the Nasdaq you will discover that the two are very much alike. ... If you consider the action now vs. the action in 1999, you will see the same type of blow-off top. ... Just like in 1987, we have the combustible dollar about to cause a crash of mythic proportions.
I get these "epiphanies" emailed to me all the time. I used to debate their authors. I used to explain why these theories might not produce the "desired" result. But I don't waste my time or anyone else's time with these anymore. Because when you think like this, you are "locked into" the belief. You can't get out. You are dogmatic in your creed and can't see that maybe not everything is the same. You are blinded to opportunities that may present themselves.
Yet, people persist in having a single thesis that will define the market. Sure, I see the overlay of the Nazz and Japan. Big deal. We are not in Japan. I notice that there is some blow-off action in the Nazz, but nowhere near the action we had in 1999, and the analogy is simply ridiculous. The dollar now and in 1987? We had some stupid policymakers in the Treasury Department at the time; maybe Snow is going to join them, maybe he isn't. I hope he doesn't. If he does, I will deal with it.
Each situation is different. You simply can't extrapolate something as simple and convenient as a chart or a graph or a day's worth of action and think that it is going to produce something that will allow you to coin money. It doesn't work that way.
Why do people keep doing it? I have my theory: It sure beats homework. It isn't time-consuming. Like all dogmatic treatises, once it is memorized, you can go on autopilot. You don't have to kick the tires endlessly and you don't have to revisit and make more calls and have more views illuminated.
In short, it is easy. And lazy.
Lazy stinks in this business."
(in www.realmoney.com)
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