Mohan 01/10/03
10 mensagens
|Página 1 de 1
lol obrigado
tive o sapo adsl em baixo por isso só agora vi as felicitações. Obrigado a todos. Realmente a comunidade dos traders (ou wannabes) parece ser muito prolífica. Deve ser por serem uns optimistas.
abraços e beijos,
abraços e beijos,
Abraço,
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
-
- Mensagens: 3414
- Registado: 4/11/2002 23:16
Realmente... a cegonha gosta de traders ou o Caldeirão é afrodisiaco 
Parabéns e felicidades, Dwer !!
Quanto ao Mohan... se ele acertar 70% dos dias, ainda por cima em futuros S&P 500... uau, já é muito, mas muito bom.
Aliás, em qualquer activo é muito bom !!
Tchau
dj
Parabéns e felicidades, Dwer !!
Quanto ao Mohan... se ele acertar 70% dos dias, ainda por cima em futuros S&P 500... uau, já é muito, mas muito bom.
Aliás, em qualquer activo é muito bom !!
Tchau
dj
Cuidado com o que desejas pois todo o Universo pode se conjugar para a sua realização.
-
- Mensagens: 9136
- Registado: 10/11/2002 19:32
- Localização: Planeta Algarve
Caro Pertinente
A tua pergunta é pertinente .
A resposta é a seguinte: ainda não me dediquei a seguir o Mohan como deve ser. Subscrevi o serviço mas entretanto aconteceu algo um pouco desorganizador na vida de qq um. Apareceu-me em casa um rapazinho de 3,825 Kg e 52 cm que me impediu, entre outras coisas, de estudar o Mohan.
Um abraço,
.
A resposta é a seguinte: ainda não me dediquei a seguir o Mohan como deve ser. Subscrevi o serviço mas entretanto aconteceu algo um pouco desorganizador na vida de qq um. Apareceu-me em casa um rapazinho de 3,825 Kg e 52 cm que me impediu, entre outras coisas, de estudar o Mohan.
Um abraço,
Abraço,
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
-
- Mensagens: 3414
- Registado: 4/11/2002 23:16
Pertinente,
A leitura destes setup's não é nada linear. Tenho acompanhado estes setups desde Julho e comecei a negociar no simulador da LJ Carregosa, no início e durante quase todo o mês de Julho foram valentes taréias. A partir de Agosto comecei a acertar nos trades e entretanto fui de férias, agora estou acompanhar novamente e gostava de entrar com $$$.
Os setup's não podem ser seguidos como uma black box, senão é perda na certa (como o de hoje por exemplo). Aliás ele próprio afirma que negociar no S&P é uma tarefa difícil, que leva anos, e que o próprio trader deve aprender a sentir o mercado, os setup's estão aqui para ajudar.
A leitura destes setup's não é nada linear. Tenho acompanhado estes setups desde Julho e comecei a negociar no simulador da LJ Carregosa, no início e durante quase todo o mês de Julho foram valentes taréias. A partir de Agosto comecei a acertar nos trades e entretanto fui de férias, agora estou acompanhar novamente e gostava de entrar com $$$.
Os setup's não podem ser seguidos como uma black box, senão é perda na certa (como o de hoje por exemplo). Aliás ele próprio afirma que negociar no S&P é uma tarefa difícil, que leva anos, e que o próprio trader deve aprender a sentir o mercado, os setup's estão aqui para ajudar.
Alex
- Mensagens: 119
- Registado: 31/7/2003 17:41
- Localização: Lisboa
Open below 994.00 and early lower run will see market move higher most of the session. A higher opening above 994.00 and an early run up will be bearish for lower prices today testing below Tuesday's lows of 988.00
E depois no trade at the sell pivot....
O Mohan estaria quietinho na sua cadeirinha...!
E depois no trade at the sell pivot....
O Mohan estaria quietinho na sua cadeirinha...!
-
- Administrador Fórum
- Mensagens: 20972
- Registado: 25/10/2002 17:02
- Localização: Lisboa
Dwer, ainda não me dediquei a perceber mto bem a mecânica de trading do Mohan. No entanto, aquilo que eu tinha percebido do post de ontem, não foi bem aquilo que acabou por acontecer. Ele hoje parece ter dado um pouco a volta ao texto...
No entanto, aquilo que eu te pergunto é se costumas fazer o teu trading com base nesse sistema e se os resultados são bons.
Obrigado por postares todos os dias a crónica dele.
Um abraço,
P.
No entanto, aquilo que eu te pergunto é se costumas fazer o teu trading com base nesse sistema e se os resultados são bons.
Obrigado por postares todos os dias a crónica dele.
Um abraço,
P.
-
Pertinente
Mohan 01/10/03
Open below 994.00 and early lower run will see market move higher most of the session. A higher opening above 994.00 and an early run up will be bearish for lower prices today testing below Tuesday's lows of 988.00
Recap of Tuesday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining us today.
On our Headline Call we were looking for the market to move higher off of an early, fast,lower drop which is what we got on Tuesday. We had also mentioned that the market would experience weakness later in the session.
If you had decided to follow this idea early on the lower fast spike down to the area we mentioned Monday for support (985.00). There was a good chance to get long below 990.00 looking for a rally either back up to the sell pivot target or up to the BreakOut which occurred later in the session. Working both sides of this Headline Call with 2 trades would have produced up to +14 handles depending on your entry and exit.
The "Buy Pivot becomes Sell Resistance" trade did not set up as the market did not reflex rally up to 995.50 within a timely manner. On these type of reversal trades you want to see the market hit the --4.25 pivot, blow through that price, and then reflex rally back to the Buy Pivot target which has now become resistance. This reflex bounce should occur usually within an hour or ideally much less. The idea is there is a reflex bounce by the wrong way dip buyers. In Tuesday's market they squashed em hard through this 992.00 area quickly, did not reflex bounce but headed lower to test the lows, and then slowly moved up all day.
We had mentioned in the "Pro Trader Action" section that, "if we get a fast, early drop within the first 20 minutes or so of the session then we should see prices drift higher again" meaning back to test the infamous 1000 handle. That area was the B/O on Tuesday and just popping slightly above it they fell off that mark again.
We will now be watching today's action with special attention once again on the opening price to determine if we will get a full on Sell Off day today or an aberration on the sell pressure which would coincide with our recent rolling to the Buy Mode. In this case we would see prices start to move higher again today. Here is what we would look for.
Today's Call & Briefing:
Today is a double sided Headline Call.
Mind you this is not a "hedge" in any way but merely a call on the markets direction depending on how they open and move within the first 20 minutes or so of the session.
If we get a lower opening and early push lower (the expected action) then this will produce a similar result to what we saw on Tuesday with the higher drift upwards most of the session. An opening and early move like this would "feed" the Buy Mode that the TCF Market Force indicators are in now. We just had a recent rolling over to the Buy Mode a few days ago and we are now expecting a larger scale up day to occur anytime.
If we get this lower opening and early run lower this will assist the Buy Market Force and will be looking for higher prices. Most likely if this occurs we will see a BreakOut rally occur on Thursday or Friday and not today. Now keep in mind, coupled with this we are now heading into the first day of the month and the period around a new month tends to be bullish.
If we get a higher opening above 994.00 combined with an early higher move in prices then this would "feed" the Sell force on a one day basis for today. In such a case we would expect to see prices drift lower into the close taking out the lows of 988 on Tuesday's action.
We are more inclined towards expecting to see the early lower action. Now the tricky part is that we can often get a SLIGHTLY higher opening but the immediate lower squash in prices. This is OK for feeding the buy force. We try to give you the idea of what needs to occur to affect the prices. IDEALLY we get the lower opening price but this may not always be the case but the idea is that they head lower FIRST to feed the buy force. The real key is the speed and direction of the first major move in the market of 5-7 points or so.
The secret to seeing the underlying new Buy Mode functioning fully is to find any lower price moves today or this week getting bought up and HOLDING ABOVE 995.00. If this occurs then the next move up will be to hold above 1003-5 and then test the 1014.00 area which today just happens to be our friend the Pit Bull.
TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: We first want to see how the market sets up for today on the opening early direction. If we get that lower action then we are going to be looking to buy the BreakDown.
As most of you know who are experienced at reading our Morning Call newsletter we would cancel buying the B/D if the market was Bear Ugly with some really strong, negative news coming out that was shocking the markets.
A quick note on Tuesday' opening trade action: The initial lower opening and drop on Tuesday was NOT a Bear Ugly market. Although the Bear Ugly readings on the High Five were there and the gap lower the ingredient of strong, negative market news was NOT there at all.
The drop on Tuesday was only related to some news about Sun Microsystems and then a bit later the consumer confidence and Chicago PMI numbers. These regular industry type news surprises rarely will constitute a Bear Ugly day as they are common, frequently rigged numbers and events anyway.
Please turn off that stupid CNBC and all that emotional hype coming out of that station. It only will distract you from the reality of our TCF setups. You have to always remember that that station is PAYED to keep you GLUED TO WATCHING THEIR STATION and they do that by constantly running this corny, football game, Ra Ra type approach creating false drama at every second to keep you hooked in. Has nothing to do with professional trading. Ignore the news and pay attention to the correct TCF setups please. You will thank me later. After years of watching that noise I finally turned it off many years ago and have not missed a thing. You can turn it on when something dramatic appears to be happening. Then turn it right off again as soon as you find out what the big deal was and get back to focusing on the one minute candles and the TCF setup.
A real Bear Ugly day has a heavy feeling to it that is associated with news that is more related to a broader fear spectrum. Remember, with our TCF Bear Ugly setup we are asking the market to be in such bad shape that it is going to give us 8-10 handles lower move BELOW THE LOWS put in the first hour. That has got to be a very sick market situation...one that when you see the market open up gap down and digest the news you say to yourself..."things could get Ugly here". Then you think, "Sell the BreakDown". Not some common news about some stocks screwball accounting or some common market report.
We will also be on the lookout on a Higher Opening and early run up to Sell the BreakOut which, if the proper ingredients are there for selling as described in the Trading Handbook, would see the prices sell off the B/O and test that 988 area again.
Value Area: 989.90 - 996.50
On a lower opening and early move lower let's see if we can get some support here at the 989.00 area for the move up here at the bottom of the VA. It may be a little too close to the closing price so we may get that lower testing of the 988/lower early on to find the support action. Trading back up and holding above the top of the VA is a bullish move.
Buy Pivot Target: 987.75 - 988.75
No trade at this pivot today. Watch the -4.25 stop/pivot at 983.50 to set up this lower testing zone of support we want to buy into. Match this up with the BreakDown and we should see em support the selling here if the B/D is in this same zone.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,000.75 - 999.75
No trade at this pivot. If we do get the expected higher prices off the early lower move then they may be able to test this upper Sell Pivot target and take out the +4.25 stop/pivot at 1005.00 and head higher.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,014.00
If we can pop out of the 1005 area then we are on our way to testing this upper 14 level. They should stop up there today if they get going that strong and then it will become a "line in the sand" for the rest of the week. So far the expectation is NOT for a strong week but more of a neutral to higher week. Strength could show up next week after everyone gets back from our San Diego seminar and Mr. Market decides to test our patience with all the new training we have had. LoL.
Pro Trader's Action
Today could be a little bit tricky so just watch the opening for clear cut directions on which way to hit em. An early drop should produce a bullish result unless something Ugly happens. This is not expected on the first of the month. I get the feeling we need to really hit that original projected 985.00 price before this lower testing is over so the early drop could take us down there and lower testing that -4.25 stop/pivot on the Buy Pivot target. So try and grab em there if the B/D is matching that area.
For those of you preparing for your trip to San Diego for our seminar have a safe and pleasant trip. Nice October weather awaits you here in California (my favorite month of the year weather wise)and many surprises so we shall look forward to seeing you there.
Good luck in your trading today and I'll see you in the action. Mohan
Recap of Tuesday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining us today.
On our Headline Call we were looking for the market to move higher off of an early, fast,lower drop which is what we got on Tuesday. We had also mentioned that the market would experience weakness later in the session.
If you had decided to follow this idea early on the lower fast spike down to the area we mentioned Monday for support (985.00). There was a good chance to get long below 990.00 looking for a rally either back up to the sell pivot target or up to the BreakOut which occurred later in the session. Working both sides of this Headline Call with 2 trades would have produced up to +14 handles depending on your entry and exit.
The "Buy Pivot becomes Sell Resistance" trade did not set up as the market did not reflex rally up to 995.50 within a timely manner. On these type of reversal trades you want to see the market hit the --4.25 pivot, blow through that price, and then reflex rally back to the Buy Pivot target which has now become resistance. This reflex bounce should occur usually within an hour or ideally much less. The idea is there is a reflex bounce by the wrong way dip buyers. In Tuesday's market they squashed em hard through this 992.00 area quickly, did not reflex bounce but headed lower to test the lows, and then slowly moved up all day.
We had mentioned in the "Pro Trader Action" section that, "if we get a fast, early drop within the first 20 minutes or so of the session then we should see prices drift higher again" meaning back to test the infamous 1000 handle. That area was the B/O on Tuesday and just popping slightly above it they fell off that mark again.
We will now be watching today's action with special attention once again on the opening price to determine if we will get a full on Sell Off day today or an aberration on the sell pressure which would coincide with our recent rolling to the Buy Mode. In this case we would see prices start to move higher again today. Here is what we would look for.
Today's Call & Briefing:
Today is a double sided Headline Call.
Mind you this is not a "hedge" in any way but merely a call on the markets direction depending on how they open and move within the first 20 minutes or so of the session.
If we get a lower opening and early push lower (the expected action) then this will produce a similar result to what we saw on Tuesday with the higher drift upwards most of the session. An opening and early move like this would "feed" the Buy Mode that the TCF Market Force indicators are in now. We just had a recent rolling over to the Buy Mode a few days ago and we are now expecting a larger scale up day to occur anytime.
If we get this lower opening and early run lower this will assist the Buy Market Force and will be looking for higher prices. Most likely if this occurs we will see a BreakOut rally occur on Thursday or Friday and not today. Now keep in mind, coupled with this we are now heading into the first day of the month and the period around a new month tends to be bullish.
If we get a higher opening above 994.00 combined with an early higher move in prices then this would "feed" the Sell force on a one day basis for today. In such a case we would expect to see prices drift lower into the close taking out the lows of 988 on Tuesday's action.
We are more inclined towards expecting to see the early lower action. Now the tricky part is that we can often get a SLIGHTLY higher opening but the immediate lower squash in prices. This is OK for feeding the buy force. We try to give you the idea of what needs to occur to affect the prices. IDEALLY we get the lower opening price but this may not always be the case but the idea is that they head lower FIRST to feed the buy force. The real key is the speed and direction of the first major move in the market of 5-7 points or so.
The secret to seeing the underlying new Buy Mode functioning fully is to find any lower price moves today or this week getting bought up and HOLDING ABOVE 995.00. If this occurs then the next move up will be to hold above 1003-5 and then test the 1014.00 area which today just happens to be our friend the Pit Bull.
TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: We first want to see how the market sets up for today on the opening early direction. If we get that lower action then we are going to be looking to buy the BreakDown.
As most of you know who are experienced at reading our Morning Call newsletter we would cancel buying the B/D if the market was Bear Ugly with some really strong, negative news coming out that was shocking the markets.
A quick note on Tuesday' opening trade action: The initial lower opening and drop on Tuesday was NOT a Bear Ugly market. Although the Bear Ugly readings on the High Five were there and the gap lower the ingredient of strong, negative market news was NOT there at all.
The drop on Tuesday was only related to some news about Sun Microsystems and then a bit later the consumer confidence and Chicago PMI numbers. These regular industry type news surprises rarely will constitute a Bear Ugly day as they are common, frequently rigged numbers and events anyway.
Please turn off that stupid CNBC and all that emotional hype coming out of that station. It only will distract you from the reality of our TCF setups. You have to always remember that that station is PAYED to keep you GLUED TO WATCHING THEIR STATION and they do that by constantly running this corny, football game, Ra Ra type approach creating false drama at every second to keep you hooked in. Has nothing to do with professional trading. Ignore the news and pay attention to the correct TCF setups please. You will thank me later. After years of watching that noise I finally turned it off many years ago and have not missed a thing. You can turn it on when something dramatic appears to be happening. Then turn it right off again as soon as you find out what the big deal was and get back to focusing on the one minute candles and the TCF setup.
A real Bear Ugly day has a heavy feeling to it that is associated with news that is more related to a broader fear spectrum. Remember, with our TCF Bear Ugly setup we are asking the market to be in such bad shape that it is going to give us 8-10 handles lower move BELOW THE LOWS put in the first hour. That has got to be a very sick market situation...one that when you see the market open up gap down and digest the news you say to yourself..."things could get Ugly here". Then you think, "Sell the BreakDown". Not some common news about some stocks screwball accounting or some common market report.
We will also be on the lookout on a Higher Opening and early run up to Sell the BreakOut which, if the proper ingredients are there for selling as described in the Trading Handbook, would see the prices sell off the B/O and test that 988 area again.
Value Area: 989.90 - 996.50
On a lower opening and early move lower let's see if we can get some support here at the 989.00 area for the move up here at the bottom of the VA. It may be a little too close to the closing price so we may get that lower testing of the 988/lower early on to find the support action. Trading back up and holding above the top of the VA is a bullish move.
Buy Pivot Target: 987.75 - 988.75
No trade at this pivot today. Watch the -4.25 stop/pivot at 983.50 to set up this lower testing zone of support we want to buy into. Match this up with the BreakDown and we should see em support the selling here if the B/D is in this same zone.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,000.75 - 999.75
No trade at this pivot. If we do get the expected higher prices off the early lower move then they may be able to test this upper Sell Pivot target and take out the +4.25 stop/pivot at 1005.00 and head higher.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,014.00
If we can pop out of the 1005 area then we are on our way to testing this upper 14 level. They should stop up there today if they get going that strong and then it will become a "line in the sand" for the rest of the week. So far the expectation is NOT for a strong week but more of a neutral to higher week. Strength could show up next week after everyone gets back from our San Diego seminar and Mr. Market decides to test our patience with all the new training we have had. LoL.
Pro Trader's Action
Today could be a little bit tricky so just watch the opening for clear cut directions on which way to hit em. An early drop should produce a bullish result unless something Ugly happens. This is not expected on the first of the month. I get the feeling we need to really hit that original projected 985.00 price before this lower testing is over so the early drop could take us down there and lower testing that -4.25 stop/pivot on the Buy Pivot target. So try and grab em there if the B/D is matching that area.
For those of you preparing for your trip to San Diego for our seminar have a safe and pleasant trip. Nice October weather awaits you here in California (my favorite month of the year weather wise)and many surprises so we shall look forward to seeing you there.
Good luck in your trading today and I'll see you in the action. Mohan
- Anexos
-
- Mohan 011003.GIF (40.19 KiB) Visualizado 514 vezes
Abraço,
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
-
- Mensagens: 3414
- Registado: 4/11/2002 23:16
10 mensagens
|Página 1 de 1
Quem está ligado:
Utilizadores a ver este Fórum: Luzemburg e 247 visitantes