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[Dwer]

Market will attempt to rally today but will falter as prices stretch to reach for a new month high and pull back.

Recap of Tuesday's Action:
Good Morning and Welcome to the Morning Call for Wednesday.

The FOMC meeting occured with the interest rates being left alone which created a bullish mood in the stock market on Tuesday. After the slightly higher opening the market pushed up, went flat for a few hours up to the announcement time at 2:15est, and then ran up nicely from the BreakOut/Pit Bull price area (1021.00 zone)with a bullish High Five.

On our Morning Call briefing service we always stay in "position neutral" on FOMC meeting days rather than be involved in such a risky market situation where the prices can fly anywhere.

There are many, many trading days each year where the market will give us clear TCF setups without all the high risk, nerve jangling mood as the market goes flat and waits for the 2:15est Fed announcement time.

As I mentioned on yesterdays Morning Call briefing after more than a decade of trading the FOMC days I really have found it to be a dice roll each time in most cases. I've been on the right side many times, the wrong side, and most of all just seen traders get stopped out on both sides of the market whether they had called the direction right or not.

Keep in mind too that the last year or more of FOMC meeting days have been rather tame compared to what I and many other of the older S&P500 traders have seen in the past. We are talking about seeing many, many FOMC meetings with 25 point + ranges where the intitial moves after the announcement are 10-20 ultra fast point moves in BOTH DIRECTIONS before they settle and make a clear directional move. I now just sit them out happily.

Besides this, the true underlying Market Force direction on these FOMC days tends to be distorted by those reacting to their perception only of "what the interest rate adjustment means". It's more appropriate for our exact TCF Trade system followers to wait when the market is not influenced one sided by a single, pre-timed event of a single market issue.

Today's Call & Briefing:
Our Headline Call for today is going to be looking for an early rally to try and stretch up to the 1032-33 area before falling back off those highs Now we may top that by a slightly higher margin but I am not expecting by much.

We are going to be watching the Sell Pivot Target which is up in that area carefully and use the methods we have been describing lately for nailing a short at that pivot. Be ready to see the prices attempt to push through that area and then falter while pulling back. If we see that they cannot solidly penetrate the 1033 area and the High Five are not mega bullish like on Tuesday then we are going to let em have it and go short. If this is the case and we are able to get short up there then we want to be on guard for any quick 5 point moves lower that slowly recover and HANG UP NEAR THE HIGHS AT THE SELL PIVOT TARGET. This would be a strong sign of higher prices and you would want to get out of that short if this occurs (but not reverse).

We will now need to watch for support at the Pit Bull as prices plowed through there after the FED announcement about interest rates. So were the interest rate statements about keeping them low really all that bullish or was it just a case of the overly anxious bulls willing to see things through rose colored glasses?

Our Market Force indicators are currently in a Sell Mode and we are watching carefully to see if those specific indicators are going to go into an aberration on the Sell Force Mode or start resuming the downside again. Our expectation is that they will resume the downside again after today's early expected rise, faltering of prices, and then pullback.

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TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: Get ready to Sell the BreakOut if that is the first Hour One pivot hit today. If the High Five are bullish which we expect they will be then we will be looking to add 2-4 points to the B/O to create a slightly higher selling zone.

We are however going to be recommending the Sell Pivot Target and more information is available in that section. This Sell Pivot could get hit BEFORE the B/O Hour One pivot so look to compare the two if you wait for the first hour to finish.

I am NOT expecting a Bear Ugly setup to occur today. Of course that can happen anytime out of the blue and we should always be ready for it but for today it is not in the plan most likely. If we get a lower opening and early run lower first then we are willing to buy the BreakDown today as we would expect the markets to move higher off that early run lower.

Value Area: 1,019.20 - 1,028.30
This VA low is now some new, strong support with the Pit Bull just above that.

If the prices head back lower and get squashed below this 1019.00 area then yesterdays run up was just an emotional fluke from the overly bullish traders.

If it was genuine then this area will find support and they will start to find a new Value Area over 1030.00 and head higher.

We have certain filters we watch to determine if our Market Force indicators are going into Aberration and if so we will alert you about it. You will see us recommending Buy setups such as today's where if we get the first Hour One pivot being the BreakDown we will buy.

So we are certainly most willing to test the buy side and are never stuck on any side of the market or any particular bias. Why is that? Because we are professional S&P500 traders and as such NEVER GET STUCK ON ANY ONE OPINION ABOUT MARKET DIRECTION. This is the Kiss of Death for a serious S&P500 trader.

It is vital to do the TCF Daily Magic 7 Internal and External affirmations to clean out any desire or need to have a market bias underlying your trading. Just let the TCF setups do the work, read the High Five correctly and the Headline Call which is made up of our 18 proprietary indicators. Those indicators will show us which way the PRIMARY MARKET FORCE pressure is and we will look to be FOCUSED TOWARDS THAT SIDE but always remaining 1000% flexible to change on a dime if the TCF setups and the High Five are telling us too. No big deal.

The only traders that have a problem with this is traders who think that their opinion matters. Let me tell you something...Your and my opinion of where the market are going mean less than ZERO in this S&P500 game. It just depends on how much money you are willing to lose before you REALLY figure that out once and for all.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,018.25 - 1,019.25
If the market opens lower and runs down QUICKLY to this price then we want to buy this Buy Pivot Target. Watch for a run up in price back to the resistance of yesterdays highs in the 1029 area to take profits and wait for either the next TCF setup or to just stop trading for the day. Use a 5 point stop or 1013.25. We really need to see prices bounce and move higher off this area right away and hold positively above the Pit Bull if this is a good trade. You may be able to cut out a little early if you get long and they run up but pull back to the entry price here.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,032.75 - 1,031.75
Let's go ahead and Sell the Sell Pivot target on a higher opening and early run up to here. Use a 5 point stop at 1037.75 and expect a fast pullback off this price if it sets up correctly as described above.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,021.80
Strong support is actually here but we are willing to try and grab the Buy Pivot slightly lower and then look for prices to move back up above this zone again. If they do rally back up here after getting long on the Buy Pivot target (Remember: on a lower opening only) then be sure they don't stall for too long with a bearish High Five or something. We've got to see the prices push higher in a decisive way if we get long at the Buy Pivot Target

Pro Trader's Action
Today should give us some action on either side of the market depending on the opening price and the first 20 minutes or so of price movement. Why is this?

In Pro S&P500 trading the traders are watching the opening and the first early movements to determine where to fade the crowd. Usually the crowd is coming in and looking for a trend to try and establish a position in. As Pro traders with a more or less Floor traders mentality we want to take positions at preceived points of extremes when the last of the wrong way crowd is just getting their final positions loaded and then watch the reaction as they get cleaned out.

Usually when our position is correct and the TCF Trade Setup hits correctly then we can not only watch for the small initial pullback of 5 points or so but wait for further failure of the crowds expected "trend direction" and then see their stops get hit at levels further and further away from their planned direction. That is when the 8-10 point moves occur...those are additional stops getting hit and taking those trades out of the market.

Let's see which side is going to set up today and use the Buy/Sell Pivots to load em in along with the High Five as our overall guide once the trade is setup. You do not want to be trading against the High Five once a move is established. Tuesday was a classic example of "fighting the tape" if any of you chose to get short (for whatever reason) and held short with a very bullish High Five in your face.

Good luck today and I'll see you in the action. Mohan