Empresas do Estado cortam mais de 5 mil milhões à dívida

[braap]

Overall things appear pretty BULLISH going into the end of the year. We may be in for some surprises along this line. Although I am not a long term forecaster of market prices it is pretty obvious that this market has had more than enough reasons and setups to get totally hammered and it simply hasn't. That is often a sign of strong underlying bullish strength that I have observed over the last decade.

Parece que ele mudou de opinião sobre o rumo a longo prazo. Como muita gente vem comentando, se depois de tantos sinais de fraqueza o mercado não quebrou, é sinal que há muita força compradora.

Se a resistencia do S&P for quebrada com um bom volume, teremos então a confirmação que este bull market está para durar.

Bruno Pais

[Dwer]

Look to sell rallies today on a higher opening and early push up in prices. Prices are expected to "hang up" near the highs until 11-12:00 est.



Trade Setup Summary for Friday, August 29, 2003:
No TCF Trade setups on Friday.

Recap of Friday's Action:
Welcome back from the weekend. Hope it was a pleasant and relaxing one for you.

We had no Headline Call on Friday and therefore no recommended TCF Trade setups. In reviewing Friday's action you can see that our call for underlying bullishness in the markets panned out as this is often what occurs during this pre-holiday trading day. Looking at the chart above we see the market did hit the B/O pivot much later in the day. Earlier they hit the Sell Pivot target around 10:30est, pulled back about 5 points and then gradually rose up making new highs later. Just another tight range day in which we stood aside in "position neutral" on our TCF service.

A quick note on TCF "Track records": I explained about our TCF Trade Summary and its purpose on several different occasions and it bears repeating. Our Morning Call briefings are highly focused on training traders in proven S&P500 trading setups which are extremely effective. This is what has made us so well known and respected in the industry.

We show S&P500 traders HOW TO TRADE and as such anyone can read our many, many testimonials from experienced traders, a good amount from the professional community, to see what they say about our work. These daily briefings and the TCF trade setups speak for themselves for those who can perform simple trading research.

If someone is mega hung up on "what our track record is" then I can simply say that our service averages about 40-100 S&P500 points a month which represents anywhere from 50% to 250% a month return on capital depending on how much margin you compare that figure with.

It is really not such a relevant issue with us as one of our students may rack up 100 points whereas another continues to flounder. Largely there are psychological trading issues involved in why this occurs. In the end it all comes down to skill management, TCF trading knowledge and experience to get these results although anyone who has a knack for trading and knows how to follow simple directions can achieve good returns.

Some of you may recall the famous story of Richard Dennis "Turtles". Well, in a sense I am trying, as he did, to mentor traders through these Morning Call briefings. Those familiar with the story know that he went on to train this specially selected group of traders and some became very wealthy and well known in their own right. Under the same guidance and tutelage some of the selected participants dropped out of the program too. For some people S&P500 trading is not meant to be.

So for what it's worth, this is my purpose in establishing these Morning Call Briefings and to also prove through our Headline Calls that one can call the exact market direction each day with a high degree of accuracy. No more and no less. However, our Headline Calls and their well known accuracy are a unique first in the history of the stock market. Most important and best of all, our service is available to subscribers for less than a cup of coffee (or spot of tea) a day....1$ a day which is quite a fair bargain.

So if you like the trial you are taking then kindly join with us today and get a regular subscription. You will then have full access to our Trading Handbook and be able to get on the road to higher profits in your S&P500 trading.

Today's Call & Briefing:
Get ready to get short today as we are going to be looking for any early rallies to fizzle out later in the day. Now we want to be a bit careful in the sense that Monday's are the most bullish day of the week and as such, we may see the market "hang up" near the highs of the first hour until mid morning or slightly later. If we are able to get short either on the BreakOut or by using the special instructions for hitting the Sell Pivot Target (similar to Thursday's action of last week)then be prepared for a patient hold short.

We also want to be careful if we get the BreakOut as the first Hour One pivot that it is NOT setting up for a BreakOut buy. Specific instructions on that below.

Our Market Force indicators are ALL calling for a sell off to hit the next rally. Now I'm not talking about a crash here but just the normal ebb and flow of the markets pulling back after an extended rally. Overall things appear pretty BULLISH going into the end of the year. We may be in for some surprises along this line. Although I am not a long term forecaster of market prices it is pretty obvious that this market has had more than enough reasons and setups to get totally hammered and it simply hasn't. That is often a sign of strong underlying bullish strength that I have observed over the last decade. I had made this case several times over the last few months since the Iraq War scene about the 3rd year Presidential cycle and other such things.

In intraday swing trading (which is essentially what we do here at TCF) it is vitally important to not be stuck in your mind on ANY bias of the market direction but always willing to reverse on a dime if the indicators are telling us to.

TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: Like on Thursday of last week we want to watch the Sell Pivot target for resistance at the +4.25 stop/pivot to sell. More on this below.

Let's look to Sell the BreakOut today if that is the first Hour One pivot hit. If the High Five is extra bullish but NOT setting up for a BreakOut Buy then look to add 2-4 points to that B/O before selling. Remember, we are expecting prices may "hang up" near the highs for a while today before pulling back.

We ideally want to stay on the sell side today but if the market hits the BreakDown FIRST and the market did not open with a Bear Ugly scenario then we can go ahead and Buy the BreakDown. Look for another gradual price rise and then we would look for the rally to fizzle out later in the day.

Value Area: 1,000.20 - 1,007.50
If we get the rally and pullback expected then seeing the prices dip into the Value Area will be important. If this occurs from the higher numbers around 1112.00 or more then this 1000.00 handle may provide some good support. We are expecting prices to melt lower than this over the coming days however.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,001.50 - 1,002.50
No Trade at this pivot target today. Compare with the BreakDown price and see if there is a trade here at the B/D in conjunction with this target.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,011.50 - 1,010.50
Special instructions for today only on this: Let's see if the market opens at or near this sell pivot target. Then, watch to see if the prices attempt to hit the +4.25 stop/pivot at 1015.75. IF they hold back from that price then let's go ahead and sell at this sell pivot or slightly higher if the above occurs. Use a stop just beyond the 115.75 maybe .75 to 1.00 above that. Good luck. Hold for a trip down into the VA to determine where to get out. If High Five turns over to neutral after being bullish then look for the 1000 handle to be support.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 998.90
We are still in a CROSSOVER ALERT on this indicator and we have to honor that. If we get the expected pullback either mid day today or tommorrow it could be powerful and blow through this number. If it is mild then we will most likely find support coming in here and prices stalling at this point.

Pro Trader's Action
We want to try and stay on the sell side of the market today on any rallies. It's OK to try and Buy the B/D if that is the first Hour One Pivot hit but just be sure we don't have a Bear Ugly scenario or "Face" to the market. More about this at one of our seminars.

We are back from the summer, the "big boys" from the Mutual funds are rolling into their offices and it's time to party. Where will that party go....that remains to be seen. There is strong evidence on both sides of the market for a larger scale move. We just have to stick with our daily plan to capture the 8-10 pure prices moves as they occur off of our recommended TCF Trade setups.

Good luck today and I'll see you in the action, Mohan