e a newsletter do Nichols... têm por aí? :) EOM
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caso edp
vamos cuscar o gráfico da dita cuja...
a edp quebrou a tren d que trazia desde Março e segurou-se no último reduto "bull".. um retrace nos 62% de Fibbo da última subida... e agora anda a testar a linha de trend quebrada.... esta última semana foi excelente para a edp e tanto SO, macd, rsi estão bem, não dando até hoje qq sinal de saida longa... sendo a única preocupação o volume pouco expressivo desta subida (pelas férias?).. vamos ver... se recuar aqui é de observar a zona de congestão 2.02/1.98
Cump.
a edp quebrou a tren d que trazia desde Março e segurou-se no último reduto "bull".. um retrace nos 62% de Fibbo da última subida... e agora anda a testar a linha de trend quebrada.... esta última semana foi excelente para a edp e tanto SO, macd, rsi estão bem, não dando até hoje qq sinal de saida longa... sendo a única preocupação o volume pouco expressivo desta subida (pelas férias?).. vamos ver... se recuar aqui é de observar a zona de congestão 2.02/1.98
Cump.
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Ochoa.. muito obrigado pelo post.. so faltam os gráficos... será possível anexa-los?
Se tiveres dificuldades manda-me 1 mail com isso(em gifs ou num doc por exemplo) que eu posto.
Cump
info_mail@mail.pt
Se tiveres dificuldades manda-me 1 mail com isso(em gifs ou num doc por exemplo) que eu posto.
Cump
info_mail@mail.pt
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Info
Claro que si!
MONDAY a.m.
August 25, 2003
Market Secrets
by David Nichols
This market just can't get over the hump -- the one at SPX 1000, that is. For the 8th time in the last 12 weeks, the SPX escaped above this crucial 1000 level intra-week, only to backslide back under it by Friday's close.
As I've mentioned, I was working out in California last week with Mohan of 21st Century Futures, and watching the action closely we were amazed how the market seemed "rigged" to the upside last week. That is, there was a steady grind higher on low volume, with some circumstantial evidence of insider loading of put options. This was going on all week, in a strange, attenuated sort of way.
On Friday morning the mystery was quickly solved, and our answer came with the upward guidance from Intel. At this point I've got one important question for Intel: have you heard about Regulation FD ("fair disclosure")?
This upward guidance from Intel has to be the worst-kept market "secret" of the year. On a week when the market was essentially flat, the Semiconductor Index -- led by Intel -- gapped up on Monday morning (a full four trading days before the guidance was publicly issued) and just kept going up all week. Then, with the big concluding gap up on Friday, it was "sell the news" for all these lucky insiders.
So the SOX was up 10% ahead of this upward guidance from Intel. How to explain that one? It's just another instance of how Wall Street hasn't really gotten the message about true reform. It's business as usual for the big money players, who like to use such ploys to their unfair advantage. Of course it comes directly at the expense of the little guy, who isn't privy to these back-room whispers and machinations. He's left stunned as he's lured into buying the "big Intel news", only to see he's bought very close to the top tick.
So Friday's breakout and reversal could have been pivotal. If it's not the start of a larger decline, at the very least the SPX should be good for a trip down to the bottom of its weekly range, at SPX 976. If the trading range is going to continue, the market should again overshoot to the downside -- to SPX 965 or so -- and then move back up above 976 before Friday's close.
If that doesn't happen, and the market starts to chip away at the downside support levels, then a bigger pullback is materializing. The blip up in momentum on the VIX confirms that the market is incredibly ripe for this, and the process of building up some negative sentiment may have started on Friday's sell-off after the big open.
The little bouts of fear have been easily squelched over the summer, by a general disregard for bad news and a penchant for optimism. Yet the market couldn't make any further upside headway during this benign sentiment period. It just hasn't gone down too much, which is regarded as quite an accomplishment. But now we're rounding into the well-recognized seasonally weak period for equities in September and October, and this fact alone gives bad news a chance to dominate from here -- especially in a market that is so over-loved, and a VIX coming back up from a rare trip down into the teens.
Sentiment Dashboard
by Adam Oliensis
SENTIMENT TANK: Filled by 3 points to 3% full of negative sentiment on Friday.
SHORT-TERM: Hourly gauge moved into a decline phase.
MID-TERM: Progressed 3 points to 84% on the advance side of the gauge but with confidence regressing a point to 1 (out of 7).
LONG-TERM: Remained at a neutral 93/7 with 0 confidence. Very neutral.
BOTTOM LINE: Friday gave us a sell signal on an hourly basis, but with the tank filling to a mere 3% full of negative sentiment, we do not yet have a confirmed intermediate-term sell signal.
____________
Ochoa
MONDAY a.m.
August 25, 2003
Market Secrets
by David Nichols
This market just can't get over the hump -- the one at SPX 1000, that is. For the 8th time in the last 12 weeks, the SPX escaped above this crucial 1000 level intra-week, only to backslide back under it by Friday's close.
As I've mentioned, I was working out in California last week with Mohan of 21st Century Futures, and watching the action closely we were amazed how the market seemed "rigged" to the upside last week. That is, there was a steady grind higher on low volume, with some circumstantial evidence of insider loading of put options. This was going on all week, in a strange, attenuated sort of way.
On Friday morning the mystery was quickly solved, and our answer came with the upward guidance from Intel. At this point I've got one important question for Intel: have you heard about Regulation FD ("fair disclosure")?
This upward guidance from Intel has to be the worst-kept market "secret" of the year. On a week when the market was essentially flat, the Semiconductor Index -- led by Intel -- gapped up on Monday morning (a full four trading days before the guidance was publicly issued) and just kept going up all week. Then, with the big concluding gap up on Friday, it was "sell the news" for all these lucky insiders.
So the SOX was up 10% ahead of this upward guidance from Intel. How to explain that one? It's just another instance of how Wall Street hasn't really gotten the message about true reform. It's business as usual for the big money players, who like to use such ploys to their unfair advantage. Of course it comes directly at the expense of the little guy, who isn't privy to these back-room whispers and machinations. He's left stunned as he's lured into buying the "big Intel news", only to see he's bought very close to the top tick.
So Friday's breakout and reversal could have been pivotal. If it's not the start of a larger decline, at the very least the SPX should be good for a trip down to the bottom of its weekly range, at SPX 976. If the trading range is going to continue, the market should again overshoot to the downside -- to SPX 965 or so -- and then move back up above 976 before Friday's close.
If that doesn't happen, and the market starts to chip away at the downside support levels, then a bigger pullback is materializing. The blip up in momentum on the VIX confirms that the market is incredibly ripe for this, and the process of building up some negative sentiment may have started on Friday's sell-off after the big open.
The little bouts of fear have been easily squelched over the summer, by a general disregard for bad news and a penchant for optimism. Yet the market couldn't make any further upside headway during this benign sentiment period. It just hasn't gone down too much, which is regarded as quite an accomplishment. But now we're rounding into the well-recognized seasonally weak period for equities in September and October, and this fact alone gives bad news a chance to dominate from here -- especially in a market that is so over-loved, and a VIX coming back up from a rare trip down into the teens.
Sentiment Dashboard
by Adam Oliensis
SENTIMENT TANK: Filled by 3 points to 3% full of negative sentiment on Friday.
SHORT-TERM: Hourly gauge moved into a decline phase.
MID-TERM: Progressed 3 points to 84% on the advance side of the gauge but with confidence regressing a point to 1 (out of 7).
LONG-TERM: Remained at a neutral 93/7 with 0 confidence. Very neutral.
BOTTOM LINE: Friday gave us a sell signal on an hourly basis, but with the tank filling to a mere 3% full of negative sentiment, we do not yet have a confirmed intermediate-term sell signal.
____________
Ochoa
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- Registado: 25/8/2003 10:41
- Localização: Almería
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