Mohan 22/08/03
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Sell Pivot Target: 1,008.25 - 1,007.25
Let's go ahead and Sell this Sell Pivot Target today. Use a stop 5 points above this at 1013.25. This trade will be cancelled if the market gaps up on the opening at this price or higher. If that occurs then we will simply wait for the first hour to transpire before trading at one of the Hour One pivots.
Bem, agora é ver os pivots da primeira hoje, já que fez mesmo o gap up.
Let's go ahead and Sell this Sell Pivot Target today. Use a stop 5 points above this at 1013.25. This trade will be cancelled if the market gaps up on the opening at this price or higher. If that occurs then we will simply wait for the first hour to transpire before trading at one of the Hour One pivots.
Bem, agora é ver os pivots da primeira hoje, já que fez mesmo o gap up.
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- Administrador Fórum
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- Registado: 25/10/2002 17:02
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Abrir curto
Para os "seguidores" do Mohan qual é vossa leitura para abrir curto, será o Sell Pivot Target: 1,008.25 - 1,007.25, ou o B/O da primeira hora actualmente nos 1011,01. Eu acredito,pelo andar da coisa, que será difícil voltar novamente ao B/O para poder abrir curto, o VIX está a subir e os bears devem estar doidinhos para mandar isto para baixo.
Alex
- Mensagens: 119
- Registado: 31/7/2003 17:41
- Localização: Lisboa
Mohan 22/08/03
Keep selling rallies. Watch for BreakDown of the lows as pressure mounts to the downside.
Trade Setup Summary for Thursday, August 21, 2003:
Sell 1008.50/ Cover 1000.00 area +8 pts. (Sell early "Too Much Too Soon" type rally)
Recap of Thursday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome to Friday's Morning Call.
On our Headline Call we had advised, like today, to keep selling rallies and to be aware that a downside move is approaching. We had an early blast up higher with a fast, radical move up to the 1008-9 area slightly higher than the +4.25 sell/pivot (1007.00) above the Sell Pivot Target. When we are looking for a selloff and the market makes a fast early move like this we call them, "Too Much Too Soon" moves. This is a move destined to fizzle out due to the fact that prices moved too far in a very short period of time against our Market Force indicators.
We shorted at 1008.50 near the top of the spike candle action that had moved beyond our Trailblazer moving averages. We were looking for a pullback at least back down to the Sell Pivot Target area or just below that at the B/D price of 1002.00. They blew right threw that area with an intense speed that shot em down to 998.50 before recovering. Covering at the 1000.00 handle was pretty easy as they moved lower without stalling at 1000 giving us a clear opportunity to score 8 handles on the trade.
It may be asked,"Should we have bought the B/D minus 2-4 points?". Now this would have been the exact bottom for a reversal back up to the 1006-7 resistance area but with our Headline Call and the briefing commentary clearly wanting to stay on the Sell Side I opted to ignore the buy reversal at the B/D. Some of you did grab em there long and were able to scalp some good handles out of it to the upside. Overall on Thursday the High Five continued with it's bullish/neutral type High Five readings with hints from the VIX of lower prices.
Ranges opened up some but nothing to write home about. We are still getting clear Market Force indicator readings of an impending larger scale drop over the next few sessions. We are in a convoluted pattern stage where the market is stuck in this pseudo bullish looking appearance but without substance. We feel the ingredients are now in place to let em have it to the downside. We got a nice 8 handle profit from shorting Thursday and this is a sign that there is eager downside force waiting as soon as this stubborn pattern comes to completion. We expect this will be today!
Today's Call & Briefing:
Our Headline Call is once again looking to keep shorting rallies. As mentioned, we are in a stubborn bullish aberration on a Sell Force Pattern and you can see because of this they can't really explode to the upside. It's just this daily small pushing above the previous days High that has slowly inched the markets up over the last 10 sessions.
We are closing in on the 10 day "Pit Bull" Moving Average at 991.50 and expect to Crossover it soon to the downside. There have been the same reasons that we have given on the previous 2 Morning Call briefings for going short today occuring in the markets on Thursday. Again, we are simply in a rare trading pattern that has been in aberration against the 1-2 day sell off which usually arrives to complete the cycle. Nothing has changed and there are no new or old signs indicating we should be bullish or buy drops right now. All we can do is stay on course for the Sell Pattern to fufill itself anytime....it should be today.
Today will be the same as yesterdays TCF TRADE SETUPS to watch for. Caution on the strong possibility of a Bear Ugly market showing up with a decent size gap open lower as a result from some bad news that is influencing the markets. With this pattern we are going to short the B/D and ask the market to give us 8-10 points BELOW THE LOWS. That is a tall order and requires a true, full on Bear Ugly market to give us the force to see that happen. This is overdue right now.
Look to sell the Sell Pivot Target today on a higher opening and early run up while being aware of the pattern we saw on Thursday repeating.
If the BreakDown is the first Hour One pivot hit today then we expect they will move 8-10 handles lower. If we are NOT getting the early indications for a Bear Ugly day then lets watch out for the extremely rare, "sneak down Bear Ugly" pattern. We discussed this on yesterdays Morning Call which you can check for details.
We are looking for slow erosion whatever form that takes. If the Insiders of corporations are unloading stocks into this move up as it appears from the tracking agencies that follow this then we are just buying time before they pull the plug and down goes the market. Let's be patient and ready in this go nowhere market enviroment we are in.
The main thing to recognize is that using our TCF Trading Setups we are picking off nice profits in this extremely small range enviroment. There have not been any major profit opportunities on the buy side lately so it's not that we are missing anything. In reality our TCF setups are capturing profits on the right side as that sets up and allowing us to stand aside without clear signals. That is how a professional survives in these type of markets where the longer term accounts are not really making any headway in either direction.
Value Area: 1,000.00 - 1,005.80
Trade holding solidly below the 1000.00 handle is bearish for today. We are expecting a larger scale move so if we get the hard downside action started be prepared to possibly stay short a little longer if the High Five get really mega bearish. Good luck.
Buy Pivot Target: 997.25 - 998.25
No Trade at this Target today. We want to watch for the -4.25 stop/pivot below this area at 993.00 to taken out for lower prices.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,008.25 - 1,007.25
Let's go ahead and Sell this Sell Pivot Target today. Use a stop 5 points above this at 1013.25. This trade will be cancelled if the market gaps up on the opening at this price or higher. If that occurs then we will simply wait for the first hour to transpire before trading at one of the Hour One pivots.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 991.50
We are closing in on the Pit Bull and today we are in an official CROSSOVER ALERT. Although we are not EXACTLY 10 handles below the closing price it's close enough for rock and roll. Let's look for the Pit Bull 991.50 to form support at first but ultimately get taken out as the market rolls to the other side of this number. Could happen today or maybe on a second level sell on Monday if we can get the downside going today with expanded ranges.
Pro Trader's Action
I've explained why we sound like a broken record on our Headline Call over the last few days. It is simply one of those rare times where the market is stuck in a holding pattern on the buy side. What is it holding for? It's being held up as all the corporate insiders sell their stock to the public. Now that the operation is close to completion we should start seeing the market crack.
If we are flat out wrong then we will see a mega bullish High Five kick in and the market will BreakOut strongly above the Highs of the early session. Not expected for today but just the alternative action to watch for.
August has obviously not been like July. In July the market was ebbing and flowing in a more regular pattern of buying and selling. What we are seeing now is very rare and only occurs maybe twice a year. It's all just par for the course and very normal action for any Trader who has been around the markets for 3 years or more. All we can do is be patient, wait for the upside pattern to finish consolidation and get short.
I want say thank you once again to all of you fabulous traders who have decided to come and join us in San Diego for our Grand 21st Century Futures "Morning Call" Seminar. It is going to be sizzling and I am preparing many detailed ways of showing you the "Inside Scoop" on how to trade the TCF Trade setups to the best advantage. Those attending the seminar will have first crack at some very exclusive new services we will be offering to our subscribers also. Our initial registrations have soared for the seminar and if you are SERIOUSLY THINKING TO ATTEND then please think it over and decide this weekend. Once you are decided simply click on the link below with that rather odd looking fellow smiling at you and it will give you all the details for registration. The only reason I say to really consider and decide this weekend is because we are expecting the seminar to fill up and be closed to any further attendees very, very soon...possibly within just a few days. You are going to love the tropical atmosphere of the Catamaran Resort and the weather in San Diego in October is the best all year. Hope to see you there.
Let's see if we can get short and get the market to crack to the downside. Have a great weekend and we'll hook up again on early Monday's Morning Call briefing.
All the best to you and your family who support you in your trading, Mohan
Trade Setup Summary for Thursday, August 21, 2003:
Sell 1008.50/ Cover 1000.00 area +8 pts. (Sell early "Too Much Too Soon" type rally)
Recap of Thursday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome to Friday's Morning Call.
On our Headline Call we had advised, like today, to keep selling rallies and to be aware that a downside move is approaching. We had an early blast up higher with a fast, radical move up to the 1008-9 area slightly higher than the +4.25 sell/pivot (1007.00) above the Sell Pivot Target. When we are looking for a selloff and the market makes a fast early move like this we call them, "Too Much Too Soon" moves. This is a move destined to fizzle out due to the fact that prices moved too far in a very short period of time against our Market Force indicators.
We shorted at 1008.50 near the top of the spike candle action that had moved beyond our Trailblazer moving averages. We were looking for a pullback at least back down to the Sell Pivot Target area or just below that at the B/D price of 1002.00. They blew right threw that area with an intense speed that shot em down to 998.50 before recovering. Covering at the 1000.00 handle was pretty easy as they moved lower without stalling at 1000 giving us a clear opportunity to score 8 handles on the trade.
It may be asked,"Should we have bought the B/D minus 2-4 points?". Now this would have been the exact bottom for a reversal back up to the 1006-7 resistance area but with our Headline Call and the briefing commentary clearly wanting to stay on the Sell Side I opted to ignore the buy reversal at the B/D. Some of you did grab em there long and were able to scalp some good handles out of it to the upside. Overall on Thursday the High Five continued with it's bullish/neutral type High Five readings with hints from the VIX of lower prices.
Ranges opened up some but nothing to write home about. We are still getting clear Market Force indicator readings of an impending larger scale drop over the next few sessions. We are in a convoluted pattern stage where the market is stuck in this pseudo bullish looking appearance but without substance. We feel the ingredients are now in place to let em have it to the downside. We got a nice 8 handle profit from shorting Thursday and this is a sign that there is eager downside force waiting as soon as this stubborn pattern comes to completion. We expect this will be today!
Today's Call & Briefing:
Our Headline Call is once again looking to keep shorting rallies. As mentioned, we are in a stubborn bullish aberration on a Sell Force Pattern and you can see because of this they can't really explode to the upside. It's just this daily small pushing above the previous days High that has slowly inched the markets up over the last 10 sessions.
We are closing in on the 10 day "Pit Bull" Moving Average at 991.50 and expect to Crossover it soon to the downside. There have been the same reasons that we have given on the previous 2 Morning Call briefings for going short today occuring in the markets on Thursday. Again, we are simply in a rare trading pattern that has been in aberration against the 1-2 day sell off which usually arrives to complete the cycle. Nothing has changed and there are no new or old signs indicating we should be bullish or buy drops right now. All we can do is stay on course for the Sell Pattern to fufill itself anytime....it should be today.
Today will be the same as yesterdays TCF TRADE SETUPS to watch for. Caution on the strong possibility of a Bear Ugly market showing up with a decent size gap open lower as a result from some bad news that is influencing the markets. With this pattern we are going to short the B/D and ask the market to give us 8-10 points BELOW THE LOWS. That is a tall order and requires a true, full on Bear Ugly market to give us the force to see that happen. This is overdue right now.
Look to sell the Sell Pivot Target today on a higher opening and early run up while being aware of the pattern we saw on Thursday repeating.
If the BreakDown is the first Hour One pivot hit today then we expect they will move 8-10 handles lower. If we are NOT getting the early indications for a Bear Ugly day then lets watch out for the extremely rare, "sneak down Bear Ugly" pattern. We discussed this on yesterdays Morning Call which you can check for details.
We are looking for slow erosion whatever form that takes. If the Insiders of corporations are unloading stocks into this move up as it appears from the tracking agencies that follow this then we are just buying time before they pull the plug and down goes the market. Let's be patient and ready in this go nowhere market enviroment we are in.
The main thing to recognize is that using our TCF Trading Setups we are picking off nice profits in this extremely small range enviroment. There have not been any major profit opportunities on the buy side lately so it's not that we are missing anything. In reality our TCF setups are capturing profits on the right side as that sets up and allowing us to stand aside without clear signals. That is how a professional survives in these type of markets where the longer term accounts are not really making any headway in either direction.
Value Area: 1,000.00 - 1,005.80
Trade holding solidly below the 1000.00 handle is bearish for today. We are expecting a larger scale move so if we get the hard downside action started be prepared to possibly stay short a little longer if the High Five get really mega bearish. Good luck.
Buy Pivot Target: 997.25 - 998.25
No Trade at this Target today. We want to watch for the -4.25 stop/pivot below this area at 993.00 to taken out for lower prices.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,008.25 - 1,007.25
Let's go ahead and Sell this Sell Pivot Target today. Use a stop 5 points above this at 1013.25. This trade will be cancelled if the market gaps up on the opening at this price or higher. If that occurs then we will simply wait for the first hour to transpire before trading at one of the Hour One pivots.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 991.50
We are closing in on the Pit Bull and today we are in an official CROSSOVER ALERT. Although we are not EXACTLY 10 handles below the closing price it's close enough for rock and roll. Let's look for the Pit Bull 991.50 to form support at first but ultimately get taken out as the market rolls to the other side of this number. Could happen today or maybe on a second level sell on Monday if we can get the downside going today with expanded ranges.
Pro Trader's Action
I've explained why we sound like a broken record on our Headline Call over the last few days. It is simply one of those rare times where the market is stuck in a holding pattern on the buy side. What is it holding for? It's being held up as all the corporate insiders sell their stock to the public. Now that the operation is close to completion we should start seeing the market crack.
If we are flat out wrong then we will see a mega bullish High Five kick in and the market will BreakOut strongly above the Highs of the early session. Not expected for today but just the alternative action to watch for.
August has obviously not been like July. In July the market was ebbing and flowing in a more regular pattern of buying and selling. What we are seeing now is very rare and only occurs maybe twice a year. It's all just par for the course and very normal action for any Trader who has been around the markets for 3 years or more. All we can do is be patient, wait for the upside pattern to finish consolidation and get short.
I want say thank you once again to all of you fabulous traders who have decided to come and join us in San Diego for our Grand 21st Century Futures "Morning Call" Seminar. It is going to be sizzling and I am preparing many detailed ways of showing you the "Inside Scoop" on how to trade the TCF Trade setups to the best advantage. Those attending the seminar will have first crack at some very exclusive new services we will be offering to our subscribers also. Our initial registrations have soared for the seminar and if you are SERIOUSLY THINKING TO ATTEND then please think it over and decide this weekend. Once you are decided simply click on the link below with that rather odd looking fellow smiling at you and it will give you all the details for registration. The only reason I say to really consider and decide this weekend is because we are expecting the seminar to fill up and be closed to any further attendees very, very soon...possibly within just a few days. You are going to love the tropical atmosphere of the Catamaran Resort and the weather in San Diego in October is the best all year. Hope to see you there.
Let's see if we can get short and get the market to crack to the downside. Have a great weekend and we'll hook up again on early Monday's Morning Call briefing.
All the best to you and your family who support you in your trading, Mohan
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- Mohan 220803.GIF (40.12 KiB) Visualizado 517 vezes
Abraço,
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
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