altistas "versus" baixistas
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Antunes,
Só leste mesmo a primeira frase.
Ela a seguir afirma que costuma, frequentemente, falar de sentimento. O que ela diz é que os indicadores de sentimento só funcionam bem em situações extremas.
Ou seja, acredito que se lesses o artigo todo até estavas de acordo com ela.
Um abraço,
Ulisses
Só leste mesmo a primeira frase.
Ela a seguir afirma que costuma, frequentemente, falar de sentimento. O que ela diz é que os indicadores de sentimento só funcionam bem em situações extremas.
Ou seja, acredito que se lesses o artigo todo até estavas de acordo com ela.
Um abraço,
Ulisses
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Ulisses...
...só li a 1ª frase: "No Sense Debating Sentiment" e tenho discordo totalmente dessa opinião: os meus maiores ganhos percentuais aconteceram quando contrariei a maioria e as minhas maiores perdas quando fui atrás das maiorias ou multidões.
Assim considero o sentimento uma das mais importantes vertentes dos mercados, senão a mais importante, estando os lucros do lado dos sentimentos minoritários.
Agora o que pode acontecer é que esses dados divulgados por alguns sites não serem fiáveis mas isso é outra história...
Assim considero o sentimento uma das mais importantes vertentes dos mercados, senão a mais importante, estando os lucros do lado dos sentimentos minoritários.
Agora o que pode acontecer é que esses dados divulgados por alguns sites não serem fiáveis mas isso é outra história...
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A este respeito (do sentimento do mercado) a Helene Meisler, analista técnica do Realmoney, escreveu hoje um artigo muito interessante. Os gráficos deviam ir acompanhando o texto, mas estou bastante cansado. Como tal, os gráficos seguem no final deste post e do seguinte.
Ulisses
"No Sense Debating Sentiment"
By Helene Meisler
Special to RealMoney.com
08/21/2003 09:47 AM EDT
The newest great debate is over sentiment. I typically write a lot about that subject, but lately I've been silent on it because so many cross currents are out there that no consensus exists. Sentiment only works when there's a consensus.
Let's start with the Investor's Intelligence numbers that came out Wednesday. Yes, 55.1% is too bullish, but it isn't as extreme as the 60%-plus reading we had in June. Does that matter? Well, yes, folks are bullish, but when we talk about sentiment, we're looking for extremes, and 55% is not an extreme. On a scale, we'd put that past the line of neutral and heading toward the bear side, but not too far. High 50s or low 60s are considered extreme.
Even the American Association of Individual Investors reports 50% bulls, which is way down from the peak reading in June of 70%. This report also went from 8% bears to 23% bears. Call this one neutral, too.
If we want to get away from the surveys and see what people are actually doing, then we might want to look at the Specialist and Member Short Ratios. Believe it or not, neither one of these is showing an extreme reading, either. They're both sitting in neutral positions, with the Members Short Ratio nudging toward the too-high (bearish) side of the ledger, but not quite there. Maybe this weekend will show a shift to higher (more bearish) readings in these two indicators, but for now, this group is pretty much neutral, too.
What about the volatility index, or VIX? Surely such a low reading is bearish, no? Well, a reading below 20 is supposed to be bearish, but I suppose there was a time when a reading above 20 was considered bullish, too. However, let's put this one in the negative category because the low reading is typically not bullish.
The put/call ratio is an interesting indicator here. The equity ratio is very low on a daily basis. The best example I can give you is that a week ago, when this rally began, the ratio was showing readings in the high 70s. I even commented in my column several times that this reading went hand in hand with the oversold reading.
But now the reading is down in the low 60s, meaning that folks are buying into the rally. On its own, it is a negative for the market. On a 10-day moving average, it's likely that, within another few days, this indicator will make a low and reverse course, which often coincides with a market peak.
If people are showing signs of believing in the rally on the equity put/call ratio, the index put/call ratio is showing the exact opposite! At the July highs, this ratio was in the 1.10-1.20 range and even dipped below 1.00 on a few days. Now, however, we are seeing this ratio in the 1.50-1.60 range; just the other day, we had a reading of 1.99.
That's why I don't think sentiment is a debate worth having now. The majority of readings are neutral readings, not extreme. Maybe if the S&P 500 breaks out of its trading range, that would get people excited, and they might not be able to point at that laggard index anymore. They could then turn bullish and move some of these sentiment indicators away from slightly bearish to a more extreme reading.
Let's not forget that the New York Stock Exchange is now overbought, and the Nasdaq will be there by Monday. If we get a rally in here, it might push the sentiment readings to extremes right when we're reaching maximum overbought readings. That would be bearish. But right now, the only consensus I see on sentiment is that the bulls are bullish and the bears are bearish. Neither group seems too emboldened right now. "
(in www.realmoney.com)
Ulisses
"No Sense Debating Sentiment"
By Helene Meisler
Special to RealMoney.com
08/21/2003 09:47 AM EDT
The newest great debate is over sentiment. I typically write a lot about that subject, but lately I've been silent on it because so many cross currents are out there that no consensus exists. Sentiment only works when there's a consensus.
Let's start with the Investor's Intelligence numbers that came out Wednesday. Yes, 55.1% is too bullish, but it isn't as extreme as the 60%-plus reading we had in June. Does that matter? Well, yes, folks are bullish, but when we talk about sentiment, we're looking for extremes, and 55% is not an extreme. On a scale, we'd put that past the line of neutral and heading toward the bear side, but not too far. High 50s or low 60s are considered extreme.
Even the American Association of Individual Investors reports 50% bulls, which is way down from the peak reading in June of 70%. This report also went from 8% bears to 23% bears. Call this one neutral, too.
If we want to get away from the surveys and see what people are actually doing, then we might want to look at the Specialist and Member Short Ratios. Believe it or not, neither one of these is showing an extreme reading, either. They're both sitting in neutral positions, with the Members Short Ratio nudging toward the too-high (bearish) side of the ledger, but not quite there. Maybe this weekend will show a shift to higher (more bearish) readings in these two indicators, but for now, this group is pretty much neutral, too.
What about the volatility index, or VIX? Surely such a low reading is bearish, no? Well, a reading below 20 is supposed to be bearish, but I suppose there was a time when a reading above 20 was considered bullish, too. However, let's put this one in the negative category because the low reading is typically not bullish.
The put/call ratio is an interesting indicator here. The equity ratio is very low on a daily basis. The best example I can give you is that a week ago, when this rally began, the ratio was showing readings in the high 70s. I even commented in my column several times that this reading went hand in hand with the oversold reading.
But now the reading is down in the low 60s, meaning that folks are buying into the rally. On its own, it is a negative for the market. On a 10-day moving average, it's likely that, within another few days, this indicator will make a low and reverse course, which often coincides with a market peak.
If people are showing signs of believing in the rally on the equity put/call ratio, the index put/call ratio is showing the exact opposite! At the July highs, this ratio was in the 1.10-1.20 range and even dipped below 1.00 on a few days. Now, however, we are seeing this ratio in the 1.50-1.60 range; just the other day, we had a reading of 1.99.
That's why I don't think sentiment is a debate worth having now. The majority of readings are neutral readings, not extreme. Maybe if the S&P 500 breaks out of its trading range, that would get people excited, and they might not be able to point at that laggard index anymore. They could then turn bullish and move some of these sentiment indicators away from slightly bearish to a more extreme reading.
Let's not forget that the New York Stock Exchange is now overbought, and the Nasdaq will be there by Monday. If we get a rally in here, it might push the sentiment readings to extremes right when we're reaching maximum overbought readings. That would be bearish. But right now, the only consensus I see on sentiment is that the bulls are bullish and the bears are bearish. Neither group seems too emboldened right now. "
(in www.realmoney.com)
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Patita - Pataqui..patacolá...
só para complementar penso que existem dados tambem da: AAII - sigla referente a American Association of Individual Investors 
....bem penso que é assim. Agora é só fazer search lol. 
Tchau.Até amanhã.
....bem penso que é assim. Agora é só fazer search lol.
Tchau.Até amanhã.
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Pata ...aiaiai... vai ao
site do : www.vtoreport.com e clica em sentiment e analisa-me aqueles graficos de Bullish and Bearish advisors . Éste número dado é referente á semana passada. Todavia é um indicador de sentimento. Logo um indicador à contrário, pois quando tudo está Bull......olha já não falta ninguém . E como consequencia acabasse a Bullish. É mais um indicador a ter em conta. No Bear funcionou muito bem. Aliás os indicadores da moda eram precisamente os de sentimento. Tudo muito sentimental : Vix, VXN, PUT CALL RATIO INVESTORS ADVISORS etc. Mas entretanto veio o "coelhinho" e comeu-os. Nã,nã...o coelhinho foi com o Touro ao Circo. Lol...
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. Altistas são as acções que sobem? ou as pessoas que acham que sobe? ou as pessoas que estão longas? ou os advisors? num percebi...
altistas "versus" baixistas
55,1% altistas contra 18,4%baixistas.digam la que este mundo nao e maravilhoso ??????? o mercado a subir com o pp dentro .i love this game.
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