Mohan 21/08/03
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Mohan 22/08
Dwer,
Podes "Postar" o Mohan de hoje?
Obrigado
Podes "Postar" o Mohan de hoje?
Obrigado
- Mensagens: 128
- Registado: 18/7/2003 15:44
- Localização: Copenhaga
Pata ....
O Vix já começa a tomor outros valores!!!!!
1 abraço
andrade
1 abraço
andrade
- Mensagens: 1329
- Registado: 12/11/2002 16:18
- Localização: Santarém
E aqui estamos nós nisto
Sell Pivot Target: 1,002.75 - 1,001.75
No trade at this pivot target today. Let's wait and watch also observing the +4.25 stop/pivot at 1007.00 for upside resistance. A move up to that point or near there that pulls back down to the Sell pivot target can be shorted. Ideally we would expect to wait for the first hour to be completed before doing this.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,002.75 - 1,001.75
No trade at this pivot target today. Let's wait and watch also observing the +4.25 stop/pivot at 1007.00 for upside resistance. A move up to that point or near there that pulls back down to the Sell pivot target can be shorted. Ideally we would expect to wait for the first hour to be completed before doing this.
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- Administrador Fórum
- Mensagens: 20972
- Registado: 25/10/2002 17:02
- Localização: Lisboa
O mohan é um tipo que escreve umas newsletters diárias e que sugere uns set-ups de trade para SP que eu pessoalmente acho muito engraçados. No entanto, note que o objectivo dele, tal como ele bem sublinha hoje, são 6 a 10 pontos por dia numa perspectiva de daytrade apenas.
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- Administrador Fórum
- Mensagens: 20972
- Registado: 25/10/2002 17:02
- Localização: Lisboa
gracias...
muito obrigado por postares o Mohan.
Cumprimentos
Cumprimentos
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- Mensagens: 29
- Registado: 1/8/2003 18:00
Mohan 21/08/03
Keep Selling rallies. Calm before the storm as market gets ready to drop. Patience required in these low range, go nowhere markets.
Trade Setup Summary for Wednesday, August 20, 2003:
Stand aside action on the B/O on Wednesday with mixed High Five.
Recap of Wednesday's Action:
Good Morning and we appreciate you joining with us today.
Wednesday was another go no where, low range market day with no TCF Trade setup giving strong signals for action. Our Headline Call was urging the continuation of selling rallies and looking out for a Bear Ugly type day.
We got the early gap lower action signaling a possible Bear Ugly day but the High Five did not follow through. The NAZ (our nickname for the Nasdaq composite index) remained relatively strong as the other High Five showed continued signs of weakening...but definitely NOT a Bear Ugly day. We also saw negative news associated with the early drop on continued unrest and problems in Iraq but there was not a severe hammering of the markets associated with this.
Trust me Gang, when a true Bear Ugly day shows up you will know it. Those days are COMPLETELY OBVIOUS and those who have been subscribers for a while with us have seen your first ones and you totally understand what they look like. You never want to try and "force" a Bear Ugly trade or idea on a market that clearly does not have the precise characteristics described in the Trading Handbook.
As shown on the chart above we hit the BreakOut as the first Hour One pivot on Wednesday. We had mentioned CAUTION in association with our hitting the B/O first as a possible Bullish sign. However, the High Five at the time of the B/O were simply NOT BULLISH and not really bearish enough to go short. Another day with mixed signals telling us clearly to just STAND ASIDE.
The end result of our TCF system telling us to Stand Aside was a market that traded in about a 3-5 point range which for us as S&P500 intra day traders is no good. There is no point beating your brains out trying to squeeze handles out of something that is not there.
However, we want to stay the course and keep looking for a larger scale sell off day to show up. Today could be the day so let's be patient.
Today's Call & Briefing:
Let's continue today to try and get short. The market is getting ready anytime to start melting down to lower levels and we want to be there when that happens and of course BEFORE that happens. All of our TCF Market Force indicators are still Bearish and looking for a larger scale move lower.
I have seen this type of setup many times before and they are not easy to wait through when you are unfamiliar with S&P500 trading. I want to assist you in your learning about these markets so you can shorten your learning curve.
The lesson in this current enviroment is to be willing to wait through these low range, go nowhere days and see that this is actually very routine for Auguest. Don't let this market enviroment FRUSTRATE you. That is for amateurs. Simply realize that we are in the SLOWEST MONTH OF THE YEAR, large Mutual Fund managers and others are on vacation as mentioned before, and that we are consolidating in a topping pattern. Once this becomes fully exhausted they are going to sell off. We are not stuck on the Bearish side but are simply following the TCF Market Force indicators and waiting for the result.
There is a chance today that we are seeing TOO MANY BEARS piling on this consolidation and that may mean a bit more upside. So far it appears that there is an attempt to "hang" the markets up here and AVOID a larger scale drop until many of the big fund managers can get back to station. Let's see if they will be succesful.
So for today let's look for some possible further upside rally to occur UNLESS we get a TRUE Bear Ugly drop right off the open with some real strong, bad news and continue to short rallies. Use yesterdays "TCF Trade Setups to watch for" for today's action. We are just waiting for the drop to occur. Be aware today of the possiblity of the markets pushing higher in the first half of the session and then selling off after 1:30 est.
Value Area: 997.50 - 1,001.50
We had mentioned on yesterdays Morning Call that if we saw prices tending to hold below 1001.30 this would support a lower market. Wednesday saw the price action hovering around this price all day and closing slightly under it. This is the top of the VA today so we will be looking now for trade below 997.50 to be bearish for today. If we get the early higher prices that hang up near the highs until after 1:30est then the move lower after that time below 997.50 should confirm bearish action. Because of this low range enviroment we are in I am trying to give you ideas of how we can "box in" the market for clues as to directional bias as we wait this out.
Buy Pivot Target: 995.50 - 996.50
No Trade at this pivot target today. Let's watch 991.25 (14.25 stop/pivot) as the key support if this pivot can't hold the buying up.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,002.75 - 1,001.75
No trade at this pivot target today. Let's wait and watch also observing the +4.25 stop/pivot at 1007.00 for upside resistance. A move up to that point or near there that pulls back down to the Sell pivot target can be shorted. Ideally we would expect to wait for the first hour to be completed before doing this.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 988.80
We are still above this number but very close to CROSSOVER ALERT which kicks in when we are within 10 handles of the Pit Bull. As the market starts to sell off we expect to blow through this number pretty decisively. We are just in a waiting game now and are going to keep hitting the rallies with short trades unless the market along with the High Five open up a clear mega bullish path.
Pro Trader's Action
Just be patient with these markets and don't waste emotional energy being frustrated with them. It's no big deal at all. This is very typical action for an August or any month for that matter where there are conflicting signals putting the market at a Crossroads.
Just keep singing that old blues song which was made famous by Eric Clapton/Cream called "Crossroads" while you sit in front of the screen "watching the grass grow". LOL. Seriously, don't let this contracted market action get to you. Just blow it off.
Remember our slogan! The TCF creed..."8-10 points is 8-10 points". It doesn't really matter when or where we get them. Just know these setups will show up soon as things open up. I don't really give a damn if I miss a drop or a rally and we nail a TCF trade setup 30 handles higher or lower. It is totally irrelevant. It's about nailing the 8 point trade from a position and setup that is going to WORK. Not frustrate. Using our methods we are only concerned about getting on the right side of crytal clear, proven TCF setups. Not on catching a "big move" that no one can see coming and getting sliced up along the way while our ego is overly concerned about "missing something".
Hope this meets you all well having a great summer and let's see if we can get on the short side again like we did on Tuesday and get a drop in the markets going.
I'll see you in the action...that is if we get any! Mohan
Trade Setup Summary for Wednesday, August 20, 2003:
Stand aside action on the B/O on Wednesday with mixed High Five.
Recap of Wednesday's Action:
Good Morning and we appreciate you joining with us today.
Wednesday was another go no where, low range market day with no TCF Trade setup giving strong signals for action. Our Headline Call was urging the continuation of selling rallies and looking out for a Bear Ugly type day.
We got the early gap lower action signaling a possible Bear Ugly day but the High Five did not follow through. The NAZ (our nickname for the Nasdaq composite index) remained relatively strong as the other High Five showed continued signs of weakening...but definitely NOT a Bear Ugly day. We also saw negative news associated with the early drop on continued unrest and problems in Iraq but there was not a severe hammering of the markets associated with this.
Trust me Gang, when a true Bear Ugly day shows up you will know it. Those days are COMPLETELY OBVIOUS and those who have been subscribers for a while with us have seen your first ones and you totally understand what they look like. You never want to try and "force" a Bear Ugly trade or idea on a market that clearly does not have the precise characteristics described in the Trading Handbook.
As shown on the chart above we hit the BreakOut as the first Hour One pivot on Wednesday. We had mentioned CAUTION in association with our hitting the B/O first as a possible Bullish sign. However, the High Five at the time of the B/O were simply NOT BULLISH and not really bearish enough to go short. Another day with mixed signals telling us clearly to just STAND ASIDE.
The end result of our TCF system telling us to Stand Aside was a market that traded in about a 3-5 point range which for us as S&P500 intra day traders is no good. There is no point beating your brains out trying to squeeze handles out of something that is not there.
However, we want to stay the course and keep looking for a larger scale sell off day to show up. Today could be the day so let's be patient.
Today's Call & Briefing:
Let's continue today to try and get short. The market is getting ready anytime to start melting down to lower levels and we want to be there when that happens and of course BEFORE that happens. All of our TCF Market Force indicators are still Bearish and looking for a larger scale move lower.
I have seen this type of setup many times before and they are not easy to wait through when you are unfamiliar with S&P500 trading. I want to assist you in your learning about these markets so you can shorten your learning curve.
The lesson in this current enviroment is to be willing to wait through these low range, go nowhere days and see that this is actually very routine for Auguest. Don't let this market enviroment FRUSTRATE you. That is for amateurs. Simply realize that we are in the SLOWEST MONTH OF THE YEAR, large Mutual Fund managers and others are on vacation as mentioned before, and that we are consolidating in a topping pattern. Once this becomes fully exhausted they are going to sell off. We are not stuck on the Bearish side but are simply following the TCF Market Force indicators and waiting for the result.
There is a chance today that we are seeing TOO MANY BEARS piling on this consolidation and that may mean a bit more upside. So far it appears that there is an attempt to "hang" the markets up here and AVOID a larger scale drop until many of the big fund managers can get back to station. Let's see if they will be succesful.
So for today let's look for some possible further upside rally to occur UNLESS we get a TRUE Bear Ugly drop right off the open with some real strong, bad news and continue to short rallies. Use yesterdays "TCF Trade Setups to watch for" for today's action. We are just waiting for the drop to occur. Be aware today of the possiblity of the markets pushing higher in the first half of the session and then selling off after 1:30 est.
Value Area: 997.50 - 1,001.50
We had mentioned on yesterdays Morning Call that if we saw prices tending to hold below 1001.30 this would support a lower market. Wednesday saw the price action hovering around this price all day and closing slightly under it. This is the top of the VA today so we will be looking now for trade below 997.50 to be bearish for today. If we get the early higher prices that hang up near the highs until after 1:30est then the move lower after that time below 997.50 should confirm bearish action. Because of this low range enviroment we are in I am trying to give you ideas of how we can "box in" the market for clues as to directional bias as we wait this out.
Buy Pivot Target: 995.50 - 996.50
No Trade at this pivot target today. Let's watch 991.25 (14.25 stop/pivot) as the key support if this pivot can't hold the buying up.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,002.75 - 1,001.75
No trade at this pivot target today. Let's wait and watch also observing the +4.25 stop/pivot at 1007.00 for upside resistance. A move up to that point or near there that pulls back down to the Sell pivot target can be shorted. Ideally we would expect to wait for the first hour to be completed before doing this.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 988.80
We are still above this number but very close to CROSSOVER ALERT which kicks in when we are within 10 handles of the Pit Bull. As the market starts to sell off we expect to blow through this number pretty decisively. We are just in a waiting game now and are going to keep hitting the rallies with short trades unless the market along with the High Five open up a clear mega bullish path.
Pro Trader's Action
Just be patient with these markets and don't waste emotional energy being frustrated with them. It's no big deal at all. This is very typical action for an August or any month for that matter where there are conflicting signals putting the market at a Crossroads.
Just keep singing that old blues song which was made famous by Eric Clapton/Cream called "Crossroads" while you sit in front of the screen "watching the grass grow". LOL. Seriously, don't let this contracted market action get to you. Just blow it off.
Remember our slogan! The TCF creed..."8-10 points is 8-10 points". It doesn't really matter when or where we get them. Just know these setups will show up soon as things open up. I don't really give a damn if I miss a drop or a rally and we nail a TCF trade setup 30 handles higher or lower. It is totally irrelevant. It's about nailing the 8 point trade from a position and setup that is going to WORK. Not frustrate. Using our methods we are only concerned about getting on the right side of crytal clear, proven TCF setups. Not on catching a "big move" that no one can see coming and getting sliced up along the way while our ego is overly concerned about "missing something".
Hope this meets you all well having a great summer and let's see if we can get on the short side again like we did on Tuesday and get a drop in the markets going.
I'll see you in the action...that is if we get any! Mohan
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Abraço,
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
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