Mohan 20/08/03
3 mensagens
|Página 1 de 1
Mohan 20/08/03
Keep Selling Rallies. Market to get hit with larger scale selling soon.
Trade Setup Summary for Tuesday, August 19, 2003:
Sell 1002.25/ Cover at 994.25 +8pts. (Sell B/O)
Recap of Tuesday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining us today. A very special welcome to all of the new visiting traders and new subscribers. We sure appreciate your getting involved with our Morning Call briefings.
Tuesday was another rather unusual day with a very tight range (8.70) and a see saw price performance. In sticking with our official TCF Trade setup we were able to nail a short very close to the top tick at 1002.25 (B/O at 10:49 est) and catch the exact bottom low tick at 924.25 which had several opportunities to fill the trade.
For those of you who have been diligently following our TCF service since we began in July we have caught the top or bottom tick 7 times in this short period of time. Usually pro traders will catch the top or bottom tick once or twice in their entire trading career. I am only saying this to show you the remarkable accuracy of the TCF Trade setups and how you can apply them to your S&P500 trading.
As most of you know who have been following our briefings for some time I am a no BS trader committed to assisting you in elevating your trading to the next level. I fully believe there is a "Pro Trader Within" each and every one of you and that Pro trader can be brought out if you try to carefully follow our ideas presented here on the Morning Call along with solid research on your part.
Our Headline Call on Tuesday was clearly looking to sell rallies and for lower prices. We got the Sell off we expected from the BreakOut and they pulled em back a full 8 points to the projected profit goal at 994.25. It was a patient hold short with a basically neutral High Five but a presistent bullish NAZ. However, later in the day the market staged a reversal off the lows and closed back up at the highs all within another small range day.
I realize that the market appears to be bullish right now and the press is adding to the hoopla. If our projection is correct it will prove to be just smoke and mirrors as we discover that CORPORATE INSIDERS ARE SELLING THEIR STOCK TO THE PUBLIC. I have seen these type of rigs before and when they occur we just keep selling rallies following our Market Force indicators UNLESS we get a full on precision TCF Buy setup. They will cave in soon we expect. We have not had a buy setup occur over the last few days and although the market appears to be pushing higher it really has not really accomplished much at all. Today should be some kind of turning point so let's be on the lookout for the market to hold below 1001.30 as a sign of further erosion.
Today's Call & Briefing:
Our Headline Call for today is to keep selling rallies as we are expecting the market to pull back strongly soon and start heading lower. I am not being stubbornly bearish by any means but merely reading what our TCF Market Force indicators are saying and passing that on. Once again the TICKs were banging on +800 to 1000 on Tuesday and particularly into the close. Usually this is a sign of exhaustion. We saw some evidence of the market getting exhausted on Tuesday afternoon with the pullback we caught but with the press promoting the new highs for the last 14 months on the Dow there is some enthusiasm by the public to buy. Today we will look at 1001.30 as being an important pivot. If the market can push below this price and hold below it we expect the market will erode further and hold lower this time. Today should finish off an extended pattern that we are expecting to be met with strong selling.
For the lower price action to really kick in today we need to see the BreakDown occuring as the first Hour One pivot. We will once again be on the lookout for a Bear Ugly type day with a gap lower and some negative news associated with the gap lower. I am not saying this will necessarily occur but we are just urging preparation for something to change the face of the steady stream of up days that has been occuring recently over the last 10 trading sessions.
TCF TRADING SETUPS TO WATCH FOR: Ideally we will hit the BreakDown as the first Hour One pivot today to support the idea of the market pushing lower. We are not bias towards the bullish or bearish side but just looking for the fufillment of our Market Force indicators . In this way we can prepare to get on the right side when the public is expecting something else. If we get the B/D first BUT WITHOUT A BEAR UGLY OPENING in the market then watch for the chance of a "sneak down Bear Ugly day". These are rare occurances and I discussed this some yesterday. Basically when you have a market like we do now with insiders apparently unloading stock on the public we often see the market erode in such a way as to not spook the public into going short and raining on the parade of the insider trying to unload. On Bear Ugly market days when there is an initial shock of bad news and a gap lower gets the crowd selling fast. So although this could occur there is a stronger chance of seeing the markets hit the B/D, bounce, and return to the lows as they keep pushing down while the High Five gradually move into Mega Bearish levels.
If we see the first Hour One pivot for today is the BreakOut then there is a strong chance that it will be bullish and the market is going to push to the next level of resistance which is up near 1020. We are not expecting this as we have made a case for the lower move over the last few days but the drops keep getting bought so we have to be prepared for the higher action if the appropriate TCF Trade setup calls for it. Kindly study the S&P500 Trading Handbook for all the details on our bullish buy setup at the BreakOut.
Value Area: 996.80 - 1,001.80
The top of the Value Area for today is right near the 1001.30 number I gave you earlier as a strong pivot number to watch for. With this also being the top of the VA this adds more significance to it. Holding above this zone is bullish and pulling back below the top of the VA should pull em back to test the 994.00 area again like on Tuesday. If our overall call for a larger scale sell off is correct then they will leave 994.00 in the dust and move towards the 980.00 big support level. Our projection for the next significant level lower is 973.00.
Buy Pivot Target: 997.25 - 998.25
No trade at this target today. If we get the pullback we expect then we should see the -4.25 stop/pivot get taken out decisively at 993.00. Once (and if) this occurs we would look for a refelx bounce back up to 996.25 to go short if the Bearish High Five are backing up the short reversal. Let's watch this Buy Pivot Target for this setup to occur today rather than buy this target.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,006.00 - 1,005.00
On an early higher opening and run up let's go ahead and Sell this Sell Pivot Target. Use a 5 point stop and hold short. If we get stopped out we may look for an additional trade at the next TCF setup either on the same side of the market or on a reversal to the buy side.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 985.40
You can see the strength of the lower drops getting bought in accordance with the idea being bullish above the Pit Bull. We maintain a "Buy Drops" mentality when we are above the Pit Bull but on certain days and market enviroments we are going to be looking to short the end of an upside move. Look for strong support down here initially if we get the erosion we are expecting.
Pro Trader's Action
Let's see if yesterdays 8 point drop off the BreakOut was the beginnig of a new erosion pattern or just a drop in another leg up. Obviously we are open to either way the market wants to go but our Market Force indicators are looking for the lower squash. Today SHOULD be the deciding day in this drama.
Be on the lookout for a tricky "sneak down Bear Ugly" type market or just a gap open lower and some bad news to unbalance things. If not and the High Five, especially the NAZ, stay bullish then we will be glad to buy a Bullish BreakOut if that set up occurs.
Good luck with your trading and skill development today. I'll see you in the action. Mohan
Trade Setup Summary for Tuesday, August 19, 2003:
Sell 1002.25/ Cover at 994.25 +8pts. (Sell B/O)
Recap of Tuesday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining us today. A very special welcome to all of the new visiting traders and new subscribers. We sure appreciate your getting involved with our Morning Call briefings.
Tuesday was another rather unusual day with a very tight range (8.70) and a see saw price performance. In sticking with our official TCF Trade setup we were able to nail a short very close to the top tick at 1002.25 (B/O at 10:49 est) and catch the exact bottom low tick at 924.25 which had several opportunities to fill the trade.
For those of you who have been diligently following our TCF service since we began in July we have caught the top or bottom tick 7 times in this short period of time. Usually pro traders will catch the top or bottom tick once or twice in their entire trading career. I am only saying this to show you the remarkable accuracy of the TCF Trade setups and how you can apply them to your S&P500 trading.
As most of you know who have been following our briefings for some time I am a no BS trader committed to assisting you in elevating your trading to the next level. I fully believe there is a "Pro Trader Within" each and every one of you and that Pro trader can be brought out if you try to carefully follow our ideas presented here on the Morning Call along with solid research on your part.
Our Headline Call on Tuesday was clearly looking to sell rallies and for lower prices. We got the Sell off we expected from the BreakOut and they pulled em back a full 8 points to the projected profit goal at 994.25. It was a patient hold short with a basically neutral High Five but a presistent bullish NAZ. However, later in the day the market staged a reversal off the lows and closed back up at the highs all within another small range day.
I realize that the market appears to be bullish right now and the press is adding to the hoopla. If our projection is correct it will prove to be just smoke and mirrors as we discover that CORPORATE INSIDERS ARE SELLING THEIR STOCK TO THE PUBLIC. I have seen these type of rigs before and when they occur we just keep selling rallies following our Market Force indicators UNLESS we get a full on precision TCF Buy setup. They will cave in soon we expect. We have not had a buy setup occur over the last few days and although the market appears to be pushing higher it really has not really accomplished much at all. Today should be some kind of turning point so let's be on the lookout for the market to hold below 1001.30 as a sign of further erosion.
Today's Call & Briefing:
Our Headline Call for today is to keep selling rallies as we are expecting the market to pull back strongly soon and start heading lower. I am not being stubbornly bearish by any means but merely reading what our TCF Market Force indicators are saying and passing that on. Once again the TICKs were banging on +800 to 1000 on Tuesday and particularly into the close. Usually this is a sign of exhaustion. We saw some evidence of the market getting exhausted on Tuesday afternoon with the pullback we caught but with the press promoting the new highs for the last 14 months on the Dow there is some enthusiasm by the public to buy. Today we will look at 1001.30 as being an important pivot. If the market can push below this price and hold below it we expect the market will erode further and hold lower this time. Today should finish off an extended pattern that we are expecting to be met with strong selling.
For the lower price action to really kick in today we need to see the BreakDown occuring as the first Hour One pivot. We will once again be on the lookout for a Bear Ugly type day with a gap lower and some negative news associated with the gap lower. I am not saying this will necessarily occur but we are just urging preparation for something to change the face of the steady stream of up days that has been occuring recently over the last 10 trading sessions.
TCF TRADING SETUPS TO WATCH FOR: Ideally we will hit the BreakDown as the first Hour One pivot today to support the idea of the market pushing lower. We are not bias towards the bullish or bearish side but just looking for the fufillment of our Market Force indicators . In this way we can prepare to get on the right side when the public is expecting something else. If we get the B/D first BUT WITHOUT A BEAR UGLY OPENING in the market then watch for the chance of a "sneak down Bear Ugly day". These are rare occurances and I discussed this some yesterday. Basically when you have a market like we do now with insiders apparently unloading stock on the public we often see the market erode in such a way as to not spook the public into going short and raining on the parade of the insider trying to unload. On Bear Ugly market days when there is an initial shock of bad news and a gap lower gets the crowd selling fast. So although this could occur there is a stronger chance of seeing the markets hit the B/D, bounce, and return to the lows as they keep pushing down while the High Five gradually move into Mega Bearish levels.
If we see the first Hour One pivot for today is the BreakOut then there is a strong chance that it will be bullish and the market is going to push to the next level of resistance which is up near 1020. We are not expecting this as we have made a case for the lower move over the last few days but the drops keep getting bought so we have to be prepared for the higher action if the appropriate TCF Trade setup calls for it. Kindly study the S&P500 Trading Handbook for all the details on our bullish buy setup at the BreakOut.
Value Area: 996.80 - 1,001.80
The top of the Value Area for today is right near the 1001.30 number I gave you earlier as a strong pivot number to watch for. With this also being the top of the VA this adds more significance to it. Holding above this zone is bullish and pulling back below the top of the VA should pull em back to test the 994.00 area again like on Tuesday. If our overall call for a larger scale sell off is correct then they will leave 994.00 in the dust and move towards the 980.00 big support level. Our projection for the next significant level lower is 973.00.
Buy Pivot Target: 997.25 - 998.25
No trade at this target today. If we get the pullback we expect then we should see the -4.25 stop/pivot get taken out decisively at 993.00. Once (and if) this occurs we would look for a refelx bounce back up to 996.25 to go short if the Bearish High Five are backing up the short reversal. Let's watch this Buy Pivot Target for this setup to occur today rather than buy this target.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,006.00 - 1,005.00
On an early higher opening and run up let's go ahead and Sell this Sell Pivot Target. Use a 5 point stop and hold short. If we get stopped out we may look for an additional trade at the next TCF setup either on the same side of the market or on a reversal to the buy side.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 985.40
You can see the strength of the lower drops getting bought in accordance with the idea being bullish above the Pit Bull. We maintain a "Buy Drops" mentality when we are above the Pit Bull but on certain days and market enviroments we are going to be looking to short the end of an upside move. Look for strong support down here initially if we get the erosion we are expecting.
Pro Trader's Action
Let's see if yesterdays 8 point drop off the BreakOut was the beginnig of a new erosion pattern or just a drop in another leg up. Obviously we are open to either way the market wants to go but our Market Force indicators are looking for the lower squash. Today SHOULD be the deciding day in this drama.
Be on the lookout for a tricky "sneak down Bear Ugly" type market or just a gap open lower and some bad news to unbalance things. If not and the High Five, especially the NAZ, stay bullish then we will be glad to buy a Bullish BreakOut if that set up occurs.
Good luck with your trading and skill development today. I'll see you in the action. Mohan
- Anexos
-
- Mohan 200803.GIF (16.76 KiB) Visualizado 350 vezes
Abraço,
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
-
- Mensagens: 3414
- Registado: 4/11/2002 23:16
3 mensagens
|Página 1 de 1
Quem está ligado:
Utilizadores a ver este Fórum: aaugustobb_69, AlfaTrader, bigest, Google [Bot], Google Adsense [Bot], latbal, m-m, malakas, Mr.Warrior, MR32, Nuno V, OCTAMA, Phil2014, Pmart 1, Shimazaki_2, trilhos2006 e 121 visitantes