Rendimento das famílias trava a fundo no início do ano

[Electrico]

fiquei com os contratos e no after já atingiu os 979,5. Portanto o homem tinha razão eheheheh. O dia só acaba ás.....

Até amanhã

[Pata-Hari]

Não recebi ainda nada, smile.

Edp -to, o mohan fecha os trades acho que uma hora antes do mercado fechar, ou seja, para ele o dia estaria encerrado. Os indicadores continuam mais para o bullish que para o bearish apesar do vix ter subido um nico.

[edp-to]

que corte em baixaos 987,50, mas está duro. Bem vou continuar á espera dos 83/84.

Cumprimentos

[Smile]

Isto de ir de férias dá trabalho... Nem me deixa seguir os Call do homem em condições.

Bem, o tal Bear Ugly não se verificou, mas o pivot de venda foi em cheio. Ter atenção ao que ele diz na secção em relação ao stop de 5 pontos que depois mudam conforme as quedas.

Os indicadores têm vindo a ficar mais bearish, acho que depois do fecho do DAX é que vem a acção, mas a queda do Euro também não ajuda muito à previsão do Mohan.

Já agora Pata já recebeste a tal newsletter? é que comigo nada!!!

[Pata-Hari]

Xii, opá, não sei! eu ainda sou principiante a ler as cartas dele, o smile é que percebe isto tudinho de fio a pavio. Neste momento os indicadores estão já menos bullish...

[edp-to]

Eu arrisquei, mas apetece-me fechar já???????????

Abraço

[Pata-Hari]

foi outra vez ao sell pivot, mas parece-me que os high five dele estão bastante bulish e que não seria de arriscar o short...

[Incognitus]

Eu já disse que tb gosto de muitas coisas que ele diz.

Agora vamos ver se isto vai para baixo ou não, hoje.

[Pata-Hari]

Não estive cá a ver o opening, mas bolas, o tipo acertou logo no sell pivot... cum raios e coriscos...

Incognitus, tens que te render a algum do charme do rapaz

[Figas]

Realmente estas calls do Mohan e tb as do David Nichols, saõ uma excelente ferramenta de ajuda para as nossas decisões de "trades"


Abraços

Figas

[Incognitus]

É interessante que as previsões dele, feitas sem ser em base numa série de outros indicadores que dão pistas para o que se poderá passar no dia, coincidem muitas vezes com as conclusões que se podem tirar desses indicadores.

[Pata-Hari]

Explica lá isso melhor, incognitus, não percebi

[Incognitus]

É engraçado como muitas das calls dele são consistentes com outros indicadores, como por exemplo hoje as Yields, apesar de se notar que ele não olha para elas.

[Pata-Hari]

Obrigado Figas . Hoje ainda não recebi nada, vamos ver se cai alguma coisa do céu, hehhe.

[Figas]

Trade Setup Summary for Wednesday, August 13, 2003:
Buy 986.00/ Sell at Break even (scratch) (Buy B/D)

Recap of Wednesday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining us today.

SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT: I just sent you a notice about an incredible, power packed weekend seminar I will be doing in October in San Diego, California. I have prepared many special features and surprises to bring more clarity and success to your application of the TCF Trade setups and methods we use here daily on these briefings. We are expecting an extremely rapid sell out. Our first day since putting out the Seminar notice has us booking the spaces quickly. Please come join me right on the bay for some detailed training and fun in one of the most beautiful tropical resort locations in the world. I Will look forward to meeting you personally.
Our Headline Call on Wednesday was looking for a sell off in prices on a higher opening and ideally on an early move higher in prices.

We got about a 2 point bounce on the open around the 992.00 area and a quick collapse down to the 986.00 area we described as strong initial support. This price turned out to be the Hour One BreakDown pivot which was the first pivot hit. As per our TCF trade setup methods, without a Bear Ugly market situation we wanted to buy that B/D. Getting long at that price saw some downside pressure but ultimately held the Buy Pivot Target early in the session and bounced slightly.

Wednesday, surprisingly, was a very low range, lethargic market once the lower early drop off the open occured. Prices basically stayed in about a 4-5 point range giving our B/O buy trade very little juice to the upside. As seen on the chart above, once they pushed up through the B/D price again (finally), pulled back and then attempted to push higher again we cut the trade at a breakeven scratch. Our reasoning for such action was plain and simple...the High Five were showing very weak, neutral type readings along with dead price action movements.

Although our general rule and idea is to "Hold the trade to the stop or the fruition of the trade" you will occasionally need to apply intelligent discrimination on obvious weak days like this. As Pro traders over time you find that so much of S&P500 trading is having a good, proven system and just plain common sense. As the market wore on Wednesday it became clear that we were in a directionless enviroment.

Our Headline Call for lower prices ultimately panned out on Wednesday and we are looking for continued downside pressure today. Hopefully we will get some better range expansion today also. Here is what we will be looking for.

Today's Call & Briefing:
Our Headline Call for today is for lower prices as the market continues the downside pressure that got started yesterday. If we are correct on this call we could see a sell off of a much more dramatic nature so we will be on the lookout for a Bear Ugly type sell off day. These occur when the market gaps lower on the open and is followed by some bad news affecting the markets.

Now the one taming factor could be Friday's option expiration day. Usually on the Option expiration day the price swings are contained as traders square positions for the month but I have seen strong moves before prior to the expiration Friday. Our TCF Market Force indicators are set up for a stronger sell off today so we want to give them the benefit of the doubt. You can see that we will benefit by trusting the system and learning to read the markets using the TCF methods.

As evidenced by yesterday's action, even when the market goes nowhere we were able to simply scratch the trade using our powerful methods of reading what the action was telling us. A GOOD PORTION OF PRO S&P500 TRADING IS JUST SURVIVING WHEN THE MARKET IS DIFFICULT. For today we just have to get in the live action, watch how the market opens, and get a solid reading on the High Five and it will be obvious what is most likely to occur.

TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: As mentioned above let's first be on guard for a Bear Ugly day to setup. Study the Trading Handbook for more details on this. If this occurs right off the open then we can relax and wait for the first hour to finish as we prepare to go short.

If we get a quiet open then we can cancel this idea. Next, watch to see if we get a higher opening. This will "feed" the next level drop and be favorable to a short position most likely. On a Higher Open and early push up in prices the best setup would be to be able to short the BreakOut if that is the first Hour One pivot hit. Although not expected, be prepared to add 2-4 points to the BreakOut if the High Five are showing bullish characteristics but NOT setting up for a BreakOut Buy.

If we hit the BreakDown again today as the FIRST HOUR ONE PIVOT but the market did not setup as a Bear Ugly day then we need to stretch our rules a little and be prepared for the strong possibility of a "sneak down Bear Ugly". These type of days are VERY RARE but today's setup has a strong possibility of this occuring. The only way to really catch these is to simply be aware of the possibility, notice when they hit the BreakDown how there is very little strength in any bounces (similar to Wednesday's action) and just prepare to go short just above the B/D.

Value Area: 981.70 - 987.50
With the small range on Wednesday we have the VA covering the majority of the trade made during the early session. The key to a Bearish day today will be to see the prices moving below 981.70 pretty quickly AND HOLDING BELOW THE VA LOWS. If we are wrong on our Headline Call today then prices will hold above the VA or within the range and keep finding support at this level like it did on Wednesday. Really, all you have to do is to note the reactions to this 980.00-982.00 and react accordingly. We were calling for this to be strong support on Wednesday and when they just barely tick'd into the 979 handle price got pushed back up. Today would see the opposite reaction if we are correct.

Buy Pivot Target: 978.75 - 979.75
If our Headline Call pans out today then there is a good chance of this Buy Pivot getting blown out to the downside with prices hitting the -4.25 stop/pivot at 974.75. If they take this price out decisively then we will be looking to short a REFLEX BOUNCE back to this Buy Pivot area to reverse and go short. Our specific rules are shown in our Trading Handbook which will get you on the right side of this setup. Be sure we have a bearish High Five in order to reverse.

Sell Pivot Target: 991.75 - 990.75
On a Higher opening and early pop up let's go ahead and sell this Sell Pivot Target. Use a stop 5 points above at 996.75 and watch for a pretty quick downside reaction. Remember, that if they move 5 points lower off this Sell Pivot after our entry and then come back to the entry again tighten up the stop according to our trading rules. Otherwise we would want to hold short and look for the reaction to either the BreakDown Hour One pivot or the Buy Pivot Target. Let's hope we get em and ...down they go.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 978.20
Pirces just keep toying with this Pit Bull price and are not giving us a solid directional bias. This is an unusual amount of time to spend at this Pit Bull area but it really just defines the market when this occurs. That definition is: Boring low range usually. That's OK. It's August which is traditionally one of the most bearish market months and common summer doldrums. Just remember that when the markets are appearing to lull everyone to sleep that is when an underlying volcano may be waiting to erupt.

Pro Trader's Action
You can see from the August TCF trade setups and the range that the markets really are not doing much the last few weeks. We are just coming off of a 5 day period of gains as our TCF underlying indicators rolled to a "buy drops" mode. With the slight crack in that 5 day streak on Wednesday we saw the S&P500 plow right on back to near the lows of Tuesday. So as mentioned earlier this area (978-980) will be an important spot to watch as weakness sets in. We are looking for another sell off day today but just be prepared to see things fall back into a doldrum situation and we can just trade em accordingly.

All the best of luck and success. Be patient as the ranges will open up more soon and the market will be back to handing us our regular 8-10 point trades.

Your trading friend, Mohan

[Figas]

August 14, 2003