Detetado primeiro caso de conflito de interesses no PRR

[bestbland]

Ando com problemas na colocação de mensagens é por isso que tive que fazer o texto todo de novo.

[bestbland]

comecei a analisar o ouro visto o meu banco ter um produto cfd com maturidade em 03-10 e 05-10 sem comissão de valor nominal 1200usd com uma margem de 120usd.

Por enquanto não tenho nenhum produto nem espero vir a ter brevemente pelas razões apontadas no gráfico.

Nota: comecei a analisar um pouco mais este activo tendo de momento um conhecimento um pouco reduzido no entanto espero vir aumentar no decorrer do tempo

[bestbland]

Vou começar a analisar o Ouro, pois no meu banco existe um CFd sem comissão de valor nominal 1200usd com margem de 120usd, parece-me interessante. A maturidade é Mar10 e Maio10. Antes era só forex, produto ainda não exposto na minha carteira.
Por enquanto não tenho nenhum produto neste activo e nem espero vir a ter no futuro proximo e as razões são apontadas no gráfico.
Julgo que uma correcção poderá estar para breve.

Nota: Comecei a analisar um pouco mais este activo sendo a minha experiencia do mesmo muito reduzida esperando vindo aumentar no docorrer do tempo

fica a minha analise

[bogos]

Pois, o ouro é com todas as moedas,casou com todas e daí fez um bom casório...

O que manda é a procura.....compra-se ouro e muito pelo mundo fora.
Olhem para o Hui....

Como já venho dizendo há bastante tempo...
Este senhor metal tem estado imparável. Continua barato.... a ultima abébia deu já 70 dolares...e quem aqui comprar está a fazer a um excelente preço..

Quem tiver "jeito" poderá contrariar, mas cuidadocom as facas...

Passo a chamar-lhe... Runner...e espero não chocar a comunidade...

Cumprimentos

[Branc0]

Está feito o máximo histórico em euros (o anterior era de Fevereiro).

[rsacramento]

o que parecia improvável há uns meses atrás aconteceu a semana passada: o ouro atingiu a sua projecção para o triângulo:

[bogos]

ppbogos,

Esta é para ti... usa stops please!!!

sem querer quebrar a moca... claro... sabes que quero que ganhes o máximo com isso mas... play mesmo safe agora...

abraço

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creepy.... no fisico não há stop....existem sempre, mesmo que valha zero....
Tou curto em indices e euro_dolar...tranquilidade...

a 930 no ouro compra-se, a 1030 compra-se, a 1130 compra-se e aqui compra-se....ele está em bull mode, remember...

Cumps de não te preocupes comigo....
Eu aguento tudo....

Cumprimentos

[creepy]

ppbogos,

Esta é para ti... usa stops please!!!

sem querer quebrar a moca... claro... sabes que quero que ganhes o máximo com isso mas... play mesmo safe agora...

abraço

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[bogos]

Boas,

Apenas para puxar o tópico para cima. É importante manter o tópico on fire. Como diria um amigo de longa data "folk e ri-bonk".
Que saudades desses tempos. A chamada carne para canhão, já não lhe sinto o cheiro e isso deixa-me .
Obrigado ppbogos é sempre bom saber que tens o cuidado sistemático, em desenterrar bons conteúdos.

Boas neckline...
Realmente o que me parece onfire não é o tópico, é mais o preço do ouro... A carne é mesmo para canhão, e nos ultimos tempos é quase 1% ao dia...

Eu desenterrar só se for mesmo mais umas barritas dele.
Ainda noutro dia falava com um amigo ao telefone e relembrava uma conversa no bolsa-invest em que um senhor conhecido dizia em 2002....comprem barras de ouro, aquilo vai valer mais do que fogo.....
Eu nunca dei grande importância nessa altura... "também sempre fui pato". Só acordei para o "problema em 2006" e aí disse...é agora ou nunca.

Mas sabes que mais neck... aqui ainda se conseguem comprar....uma coisa é certa....eu as minhas não vendo nem por nada....

Parabens pela clarividência das ideias. Parabens pela humildade de também admitir que se erra.
Já agora: sei que tens aí uns textos e graficos sobre vários indices e afins.
Coloca aí o material, pois deve ser de confiança.

Cumprimentos

[Neckline]

Boas,

Apenas para puxar o tópico para cima. É importante manter o tópico on fire. Como diria um amigo de longa data "folk e ri-bonk".
Que saudades desses tempos. A chamada carne para canhão, já não lhe sinto o cheiro e isso deixa-me .
Obrigado ppbogos é sempre bom saber que tens o cuidado sistemático, em desenterrar bons conteúdos.

[bogos]

Bom, vou aqui colocar duas perspectivas demasiado antagónicas que ao longo deste tópico foram aparecendo. Penso que traduzem cabalmente o acreditar e o não acreditar do ouro.

Tratam-se realmente de duas visões muito diferentes....para já e claramente vence o acreditar no metal, pois encontra-se mais perto do target definido na imagem.

Eu com a minha parca sabedoria sobre os assuntos de AT, AF, desenhos, tacticas e afins, só acredito, e volto a pedir desculpas aos "puristas",mas acredito mesmo que ele ainda está barato,quer a 1130,1030,930, ou mesmo 1190,1240,1300. Claro,aqui há saldos e saldos....mais abaixo é reforço...aqui ou acima para os liquidos é ainda uma excelente hipotese de ganhar dinheiro.

Todos procuram uma relação de algo. Com o dolar concerteza,mas não na sua imagem "chapa 5", ou seja, se pensarem bem, o euro-dolar já andou na casa do 1,60 (isto um exemplo). Onde estava o ouro nessa altura, a 10 de julho de 2008? O ouro cotava a 917,6.

Bem isto serve para dizer que aqui o factor procura é aquele que decide o rumo de um determinado bem,por muito inutil que ele seja. O ouro para nada serve,mas em tempos de cegueira que o tem, certamente estará a ver bem.

Cumprimentos.

PS: "Mode Run" desde 2002.
Nota: Os graficos são de 2 membros aqui do forum.

[bogos]

Dada a impressão de tanto dinheirão para a grande manipulação, o ouro está na fase do Run to the Moon... e aqui continua ele barato.

Cumprimentos

[Crómio]

Boas!

E um gráfico do SP500 em ouro?

Acho q foi neste tópico que pedi aqui há uns tempos ao Dwer, estou muito curioso em relação ao aspecto destes últimos 6 meses... deve andar o SP em linha descendente?

Obrigado

semanal

obrigado dwer

[bogos]

Boas noites...
Paulatinamente lá vai o metal na sua subida, sem deixar espaço para respirar, e as vindas abaixo intradiárias não são mais que meras oportunidades de compra.
Reparem, que apesar da queda do SPX intraday, o ouro nem sequer acompanha o preço do SPX.

Correcções terão que existir, mas não se sabe é quando.

Dividamos isto em lotes de 100 ticks...
Suportes...1130,1030,930...
Em qualquer um deles compra-se.

Mesmo aqui, continuo a acreditar que o preço é barato....
A procura tende a aumentar e muito...
A describilização do dolar é total, e só não está em "Zimbabwe mode", pois o mundo acredita ainda nos EUA.


Eu no futuro só vejo inflacção, depois de passado este periodo. Deter metais neste momento é muito compensador. Atenção À prata...lá para os lados da ásia é vista como substituta do ouro, pois como este é caro, refugiam-se no mais acessivel.

MHO

[Branc0]

Este report já está muito empolado do que aquilo que eu li inicialmente o mês passado. Ao que sei as barras são de ouro, não têm é a pureza de 99.9% (continuam a ter elevada pureza) pois estão misturadas com esse outro metal.

Ao que percebi isso era conhecido de algumas barras de Fort Knox que remontam ao roubo de FDR e por aí não há nada de mal... o que é mau é se barras sem a pureza necessária andam a passar por barras LBMAs. Mas sinceramente, acho que é um não-acontecimento.

Os bancos centrais manipulam suficientemente este mercado para me preocupar com meia duzia de toneladas que possam não estar marcadas correctamente (até porque não compro barras de 400oz infelizmente )

[limpaesgotos]

http://www.theflucase.com/


http://www.theflucase.com/index.php?opt ... 64&lang=en

Evidence of massive fraud on the gold market emerges, reports Jim Willie

Gold Market Breakdown

Jim Willie

The Golden Jackass
November 20, 2009

The rise in gold pre-sages a currency collapse, led by the USDollar. Gold vaults at commodity exchanges in New York and especially London are being drained by delivery demands. Gold demand is skyrocketing, as distrust for the USDollar is broadening and revolt against the US$ is deepening. The quintessential finance war is between the United States and China, with the battlefield being the US$ and Gold. The race over the $1000 price level came in the face of mammoth shorting by the same Usual Suspects on Wall Street, which do so with paper, but without the required collateral. The gold market is poised for a surprise upward move from a basic broken condition, as the Powerz are losing control. It would be a joy to watch except for the extreme hardship due to come to the betrayed American people.

$$$ THE BIGGEST GOLD CRIME STORY OF THE CENTURY MIGHT BE SOON COMING TO FULL LIGHT. EVIDENCE IS BEING ACCUMULATING THAT THE CLINTON ADMIN WITH RUBIN AT USDEPT TREASURY REPLACED PERHAPS THE ENTIRE CONTENTS OF THE FORT KNOX GOLD WITH TUNGSTEN BARS PLATED BY GOLD. THE SALTED GOLD BARS ARE FASTING BECOMING A GLOBAL CRIME ISSUE. HONG KONG DISCOVERED THEM, AND NOW ASSAYERS ARE TRYING TO AUTHENTICATE MOST OF THE GLOBAL GOLD HELD IN BANKS. ENTIRE NATIONS ARE AT RISK. BEFORE LONG THE USGOVT COULD BE DECLARED A ROGUE NATION INTERNATIONALLY. $$$

My view is the story is not only credible, but it is the climax to the US financial collapse. In time the United States will be isolated, declared a Rogue Nation, unable to fund its debt except with monetization, whose leaders and former leaders face international prosecution. The resulting inflation will undermine the USDollar to the point that it will not be accepted. A USTreasury default will be forced, all in time. To be sure, some demand for gold might be frozen into inaction obviously, as customers would fear owning fake gold bars. However, the significantly greater effect is that sellers of gold will scramble to purchase real gold bars, so as to avoid fraud charges, criminal prosecution, and jail time. They will be motivated to repair the fraudulent transaction with full expedience. The replacement effect will cause an extraordinarily huge demand. Only at that time, will the risk of exposing the stolen gold come, as the thieves will want to cash out on their crime, at least partially. The removal and illegal swap of gold has precedent. In the 1960 decade, around 1968, President Lyndon Johnson ordered the removal of 7000 of the 8000 tons of gold from Fort Knox, and had it sent to England. The motive was to support the gold price at the time. Just a few years later, the US under President Nixon abandoned the US$ Gold Standard, as dictated by the Bretton Woods Accord. The gold was replaced during the Johnson Admin in Fort Knox by lead bars plated by gold. A contact of mine was in the USMilitary Police at the time. He reported long caravans exiting Fort Knox for weeks at a time, but the details of shipments were not known to the guards, only their duties.

A d v e r t i s e m e n t



For some excellent forensic financial analysis on the fake gold project, called Operation Grand Slam, see Rob Kirby’s article. It is entitled “On Doing God A New Take On Operation Grand Slam With A Tungsten Twist HERE), dated 12 November 2009. $$$ GOLD MARKET BREAKDOWN IS WITHIN VIEW. LONDON GOLD IS BEING DRAINED BY THE CHINESE. A DISMANTLE OF THE CRIMINAL APPARATUS IS THEIR GOAL. UPON FULL BREAKDOWN, THE GOLD PRICE WILL BE RELEASED FROM PAPER TENTACLES AND RISE SHARPLY. $$$

Pressures mounted in early October at the London metals exchange as gold contract holders demanded delivery of gold. My source tells me that the parties demanding gold were almost exclusively Chinese. It is mostly private billionaires. Their stated motive was to diversify out of US$-based assets. Their rumored motive was to ruin the exchange, expose the chronic fraud linked to government ministries, and force the USDollar to fight in the open to demonstrate value or lack of value. The source said the next round of gold contract delivery pressure comes in late November, then again in March 2010, and finally in June 2010. He said the gold is gradually being drained in London, and that all demands for gold delivery were met in October, using legal force, the courts, and powerful attorneys. Not a single gold contract was settled for cash with a 25% dividend bribe. He concluded that the financial system will be broken at the gold-USDollar cross beam. He openly stated that he could not conceive of the system holding together past June of next year, and a severe test is likely in March 2010. He said with sly tone, “There is a saying: Watch out or you become shit before your own shovel. That is what is happening to the BOYZ right now. The people in the driver seat of the bulldozer have clear instructions what to do in the gold market.” When the breakdown comes, it will be next to impossible to trade in USDollars, to settle commerce in USDollars, to finance the USTreasurys, to supply the USEconomy with credit, and to maintain the US banking system. The banks in the United States will then shut down in all likelihood.

My view is that a battle royal is being played out with gross global pressures, between the old broken insolvent corrupted powers of the West versus the new wealthy ambitious powers of the East, led by China. The future chapters will possibly involve the Intl Court in The Hague for prosecutions against the Wall Street firms and former USTreasury officials. It will possibly involve a wave of murders from the middle levels, working up, since the guilty parties operate with impunity and government protection. It will surely involve relentless attacks on COMEX and London CME for gold deliveries, where collateral requirements are not enfoced. The practice is known as naked shorting, illegal. It will probably involve the isolation of the United States, with full recognition of a crime syndicate lodged within its government ministries and capital markets. These are truly incredible times.

Evidence is being gathered by perhaps a dozen key gold traders with diverse connections to the gold industry. They tie the delivery systems, the authentication processes, the assayers, record keeping, big financial firms, and trading platforms. Evidence mounts that as many as 1.5 million 400-oz gold bars were replaced at Fort Knox during the Clinton Admin with tungsten bars covered with a thin gold plate. This was a complex metallurgical feat, from what is told. The first ’salted bars’ were discovered in Hong Kong a month ago, reported by the Hat Trick Letter. Since that time, tens of thousands of bars have been examined, usually using four test holes drilled for direct sampling. Other non-invasive methods are being used as well, such as electro-magnetic tests to detect the actual lattice structure of the metal to distinguish gold from other substitutes. Word came this week that almost every available assayer in the world is currently tied up, charged with proving the authenticity of gold bars worldwide, right now! Rob Kirby suspects that the Street Tracks GLD exchange traded fund might be loaded with such salted bars. It is a perfect destination for them, since the Wall Street syndicate prevents any audit. The total value of gold removed within the plot was worth over $500 billion. So where are the real gold bars stored? My guess is the same location where the Madoff money is secretly held.

[bogos]

Bons dias

Parece que o ouro lá continua na sua subida, para o qual muitos tentam encontrar uma justificação no mercado fisico e também monetrário e o consenso continua por ser...nenhum.

O preço continua a dar sinais de compra, baseado unica e exclusivamente a meu ver, no interesse de "refugio" que ele mantem ao longo da sua história.

Até onde? Ninguem sabe. Falam de 1350, 2000, 5000, uma panóplia de opiniões e target's que aqui como em outros target's, pouco interessam para o caso.

Para 5000, falta o medo...
Para 2000, falta pouco...

Aqui ele continua barato. A 2000 comprar-se-á bem ainda..... a 5000 mata-se e rouba-se por ele...

O ouro amanhã valerá mais e o mundo concerteza estará economicamente muito pior....

Run....continua ele...

Cumprimentos

[Branc0]

Is gold in a bubble?

A pergunta tem sido feita por muita gente... o que normalmente significa que não está em bolha (ou pelo menos não na sua fase final onde o cepticismo não costuma estar presente).

Artigo original.

Gold has recently broken out to new highs, topping $1150/ounce. The financial media doesn’t trust this move. Widespread commentary has it that gold is in a bubble. Google reports numerous hits for a search on "gold bubble nov 2009." Financial writer and frequent television guest Dennis Gartman agrees:

"It is a gold bubble and to say otherwise it’d be naïve," Gartman said. He called the trade on the precious metal: "mind boggling and unbelievably crowded," but also said he is currently long – or betting gold will go higher.

To be fair to Gartman he is a short-term trader who has been both long and short gold at various times in the last ten years. I am not original in the following observation (I think it was Bill Fleckenstein but I can't remember for sure) but it is worth saying again. Gartman aside, many of the financial media have a pronounced anti-gold bias. Of the writers and news anchors now calling gold a bubble, not only did they fail to identify the stock market bubble in the 90s or the subsequent housing market boom as a bubble, they actively promoted the excesses of those unsustainable booms, encouraging their viewers or readers to participate. For the most part, these pundits have failed to identify a rising gold price as an investment trend at any point in the past ten years (during which gold had a positive return each and every year); and most have never recommended any form of gold as an investment to their viewers – who probably don’t own any gold either.

Few if any of the financial commentariat are presently warning investors of the government bond bubble. Yet if there is any financial event more certain than the eventual default of most government debt in the developed world, I cannot identify it.

Witness the irony of the financial media transformed from hypesters who never saw a bubble they couldn’t promote into bubble vigilantes, issuing concerned warnings to "get out, now, before you get hurt."

But so far all I have done is to make ad hominem attacks on media figures. In spite of their past failures, they could be right. Let’s have a look at the data and try to figure out whether gold is or is not in a bubble.

A bubble is a deviation between price and fair value of an asset. Because fair value is to some extent a matter of opinion, identifying a bubble involves opinion as well. There are various widely accepted methods for valuing assets, but these methods use inputs that involve judgment and opinion. Stocks can be valued on the underlying earnings or the balance sheet of the issuing corporation. Housing can be valued on the basis of rental income. While these numbers are also open to interpretation, a firm call of a bubble can be made when values are in an uptrend and reach multiples of historic valuations.

But estimating the fair value of gold is at best, less straightforward, and at worst, impossible. Other assets are valued on the income stream that they produce, or by breaking them down into pieces that have independent market prices. Gold cannot be analyzed the same way as other assets because it can't be broken down into anything more fundamental than itself. Its current price is its only indication of what it might be worth. Its price can change from day to day. This makes it difficult to determine what is a low or a high price. Various models have been proposed to calculate the fair value of gold, but they all run into assumption-making at some point.

Paul van Eeden has published some articles (1 2) in which he proposes that the fair value of gold can be calculated on the basis of purchasing power parity of an ounce of gold, relative to the end of the gold standard (when gold was last official money). He projects the current gold price based on the growth in the supply of mined gold over this time, compared to the growth in the supply of fiat money over the same period.

I do find value in van Eeden’s work, mainly for emphasizing that gold is a global asset, one that is in demand in terms of all fiat monies. Gold has one price in each currency. The dollar price of gold is not the price of gold, only a price of gold. The dollar price of gold reflects the foreign exchange value of the dollar against other fiat monies as well as the global valuation of gold itself. Van Eeden shows, for example, that gold was not in a global bear market throughout the entire period from 1980–1995. On the contrary, much of the decline in the dollar price of gold was a rise in the exchange rate of the dollar over this time. Gold’s price over this period in other fiat currencies was not uniformly down (a fact frequently cited to "prove" that gold is not an inflation hedge). The gold price went up in some currencies and trended sideways in others, depending on their foreign exchange rate.

However, I am not convinced that gold should trade at van Eeden’s theoretical price. The exchange rate between fiat money A and fiat money B tends toward purchasing power parity because participants buy and sell goods and currencies to arbitrage away differences. This arbitrage process assumes that goods are sold in the market in terms of both A and B. But there is no good reason to expect that the price of gold should reflect purchasing power parity when it is no longer used as currency because goods are not sold on the market for gold. It is purely a financial asset at this point. Van Eeden’s model might be approximately true because gold functions as a sort of shadow money but that’s not exactly the same as actual money.

Van Eeden also ignores the likelihood that the purchasing power of gold would have grown since the end of the official gold standard, since the growth rate of the goods and services in the world economy has exceeded the growth rate of the gold supply.

Another problem with van Eeden's model is that, while under the gold standard, currencies were redeemable for a fixed amount of gold. In that regime, any measurement of money supply should count either currencies or gold. Counting currencies and gold would be double counting. His model compares gold against currency, which would be correct if we went back on a convertible gold standard, but right now, gold trades along side currencies, so it should be counted as an addition to total money.

Professor Mike Rozeff has written several articles for LewRockwell.com showing calculations of what the gold price could be using different models. As Rozeff points out, "Numbers such as [those presented in certain models] surely give the impression that gold can go higher, but we knew that already. Any asset can go higher. These numbers give the illusion of certainty and necessity, or in other words they suggest that gold will go higher. But the model has no reasoning in it to say why this has to happen, if it has to happen at all." I agree with Rozeff’s point here: if you assume that a particular model is correct, it can be used to generate a theoretical price. But the models all depend on an assumption that gold should behave as it is modeled.

How expensive does an asset need to be to be called a bubble? During the stock market bubble, equities traded at three to four times historic valuations, with the NASDAQ index trading at something like six times or more times a realistic valuation (notwithstanding the large number of NASDAQ companies whose value proved to be zero). During the housing bubble, home prices averaged over the entire country were about twice historic valuations, but the major bubble cities saw homes reach three or more times historic valuations.

If you think that gold is in a bubble, is it trading at two times fair value? Three times? Five or six times? That would imply a fair value of anywhere from $550 to $200. During most of the last ten calendar years, gold has experienced a decline of 20% at least once during the year and then resumed its upward climb. Would a fall in gold from the recent $1100 to a low of $900 validate the bubble hypothesis? Or would it only be a medium-term correction in an ongoing bullish trend?

Can an analysis of trends and cycles tell us whether gold is in a bubble? I recall a speaker at an investment conference in the mid-00s stating that gold's bull run was over because "the average gold bull market lasts for four years." But where did this average come from? Prior to 1971, the "price" of gold was a fixed convertibility ratio between fiat money; or at worst, an administered price. Gold has only had a market price in fiat money terms since the day when Nixon closed the gold window. How many gold bull markets have we seen that time? At most: two. Can we average together all two points of data and get a meaningful statistic?

Relying on historical valuations is useful for stocks and houses since we have a century more of data for both of those asset classes. But for gold, the world has only been on a pure fiat money standard for 40 years. How many complete bull and bear cycles have we seen during that time? Nassim Taleb, in his book Fooled by Randomness, emphasizes that, when you are collecting data about some observable phenomenon, it is difficult to know when you have seen enough data to encompass the full variability of the phenomenon. In other words, if you have 100 years of data about floods in a river bed, your data set might not include any occurrences of the once-every-200-years flood, or the 500-year flood.

It seems implausible to me that in the last 40 years we have seen the full range of variability in the relationship between gold and fiat money. I suspect we have not experienced multiple bull/bear cycles in gold; it is more likely we have not even seen one complete cycle yet. In our 40 years since Nixon closed the gold window, we have not seen the 100-year flood. It is more likely that we are now reaching the end of the first full market cycle of gold in a pure fiat world. This is now the 100-year flood. The current cycle will end with a world-wide currency crisis and a wipeout in the value of most government debt.

If I am correct, then the next phase of monetary history would almost certainly involve an informal or formal recognition of gold as a monetary reserve asset by central banks. Gold would then be revalued at a much higher level of purchasing power relative to recent history.

[bogos]

ppbogos,

O mercado está irracional, sem regras, leis, ou afins.

Mas alguma vez o mercado teve regras?

A propria AT já não é o que era.

A que época que referes quando escreves "era"?

Tá tudo louco em Wall Street.

Podes elaborar porque achas que tá louco?

Eu acredito num mundo bem pior.....

E já agora, pior em que aspecto?

O mercado sempre teve regras,é um mercado organizado,logo já tem regras. Quanto às regras dos "intervenientes" essas de facto deixam a desejar.

AT clássica, isto é, feita pelo "homem manual". Agora estamos numa AT mecânica, feita pelo homem mecânico.

Corre-semuito em Wall Street. Recentemente fui aos States e naquela portinha de entrada para o NYSE, aqueles gajos parecem Robot's.....gente cega num mundo de cegos.

O mundo vai estar muito pior, porque quando se combate excessos, com outros excessos, só teremos como consequencia o extremar de excessos.
Isto é uma guerra dos financeiros....problema vai ser quando essa guerra chegar verdadeiramente ao bolso da ralé..... é que não é só o desemprego dramático,é quando eles decidirem assaltar-nos o bolso sem piedade, para pagar os excessos que eles cometeram.

Cumprimentos

OBS: O ouro continua "RUN", muito desindexado de tudo o resto, até ver.

[Branc0]

Boas!

E um gráfico do SP500 em ouro?

Acho q foi neste tópico que pedi aqui há uns tempos ao Dwer, estou muito curioso em relação ao aspecto destes últimos 6 meses... deve andar o SP em linha descendente?

Obrigado

Não tenho aqui mas não está. Os índices accionistas desde Março recuperaram.

[Dwer]

Boas!

E um gráfico do SP500 em ouro?

Acho q foi neste tópico que pedi aqui há uns tempos ao Dwer, estou muito curioso em relação ao aspecto destes últimos 6 meses... deve andar o SP em linha descendente?

Obrigado

semanal

[Crómio]

Boas!

E um gráfico do SP500 em ouro?

Acho q foi neste tópico que pedi aqui há uns tempos ao Dwer, estou muito curioso em relação ao aspecto destes últimos 6 meses... deve andar o SP em linha descendente?

Obrigado

[Branc0]

Viva,

É que geralmente as bolhas não chegam mesmo a valores pre-definidos por "experts". Há o exemplo do petróleo, como o DJIA a 36.000 pontos, entre outros casos, como a famosa bolha da prata nos anos setenta, salvo erro.
Mas atenção que os valores erram, sim, mas não a tendência. O petróleo sempre foi a 140 USD.

Isto significa que o Ouro, ainda que não vá aos 5.000 USD neste bull market, pode perfeitamente ir bem acima dos valores atuais. Ninguém pode negar 1.500 ou mesmo 2.000 USD antes do fim do bull market, o qual acabará como todas as bolhas, neste caso, só quando ativos de renda fixa voltem a "render" valores mais interessantes - digamos juros reais positivos numa dimensão que valha a pena. No final dos anos setenta, início dos oitenta, a bolha do Ouro foi quebrada pela forte elevação das taxas de juro + quebra da monetização (liquidez) em USD.

Abraço

dj

Eu confesso que para valores concretos prefiro olhar para o rácio XAU/DJIA.

É que isto não é uma questão de preço, é uma questão de valor.

[djovarius]

Viva,

É que geralmente as bolhas não chegam mesmo a valores pre-definidos por "experts". Há o exemplo do petróleo, como o DJIA a 36.000 pontos, entre outros casos, como a famosa bolha da prata nos anos setenta, salvo erro.
Mas atenção que os valores erram, sim, mas não a tendência. O petróleo sempre foi a 140 USD.

Isto significa que o Ouro, ainda que não vá aos 5.000 USD neste bull market, pode perfeitamente ir bem acima dos valores atuais. Ninguém pode negar 1.500 ou mesmo 2.000 USD antes do fim do bull market, o qual acabará como todas as bolhas, neste caso, só quando ativos de renda fixa voltem a "render" valores mais interessantes - digamos juros reais positivos numa dimensão que valha a pena. No final dos anos setenta, início dos oitenta, a bolha do Ouro foi quebrada pela forte elevação das taxas de juro + quebra da monetização (liquidez) em USD.

Abraço

dj

[Branc0]

Não chegará a esse valor, faz-me lembra o brent quando se falava nos 200.
Se continuar a subir só posso estar perante de uma proxima bolha

Há uma diferença. Na altura não encontrei ninguém a dizer que o brent ia valer $50 no ano que vem. No ouro arranjo-te mais de uma duzia a apontar para os $500/oz.

Quanto ao artigo enfim... "peritos" há muitos.