Rutte elogia Trump por fazer Europa "pagar em GRANDE" os gastos com defesa

[Pata-Hari]

hehhehe! bom jogo e obrigado pelas ajudas, smile! tens sido precioso.

Até amanhã. Stop.

[Smile]

Bem Stop Vamos andando para o estádio Stop Hoje tambem não estava com muita atenção e também não estava muito confortável Stop

Nem com longos com o Vix a subir mais de 1 ponto em relação a ontem e NAS com queda. Nem com curtos com trin entre 0.77 - 1 e as quebras das resistências.

Amanhã haverá mais....

[alex01]

Sim Pata, no simulador é possível ver o chart dos futuros do S&P, estou bem impressionado com este simulador da LJ, um único detalhe são as horas nas janelas/charts, alguns aparecem com a hora Portugal, outros com a hora Portugal - 1, para complicar estamos adiantados 5h em relação ao S&P.

Parece que o S&P esta a ganhar força, com o VIX nos 24.95.

[Pata-Hari]

Alex, a lj tem desde há pouco tempo uma opção que permite ver charts de futuros real time. Mas tens que ser cliente, não sei se a simulação tem isso ...

[Smile]

Oopss!!!

[Smile]

Foi mais ao menos como está na figura que vi os setups e actuei.

Vamos ver o que se vai passar, mas hoje não estou com muita fé nisto.

[alex01]

Os valores que vemos no simulador da LJ Carregosa são futuros ou cash ?

Smile, entraste curto em que valor ?

[Pata-Hari]

Hmmmm "atenção que nos futuros não foi ao Buy Pivot por 0.25 ". Mas eu estou a ver o gráfico e só foi a 961...

[Smile]

O B/O e o B/D são o máximo e mínimo da primeira hora, respectivamente. E os valores são de Futuros e não cash... eu já estou curto e saio com 6 pontos ou stop a breakeven.

Vamos ver. Acho que vou perder desta vez na luta com o mercado... Mas... Até agora ainda não conseguiu romper o máximo da primeira hora e foi lá 2 vezes..

[alex01]

Smile,

Como é que chegaste aos Pivot de B/O = 965.5 e B/D = 959.0 ? É através dos Buy/Sell Pivot's ?

Devo dizer que senti-me tentado em entrar longo nos 961 para sair nos 966.

[Smile]

atenção que nos futuros não foi ao Buy Pivot por 0.25 e foi ao B/O em primeiro, tornando-o o Hour One Pivot, que era o Sell Pivot.

Vamos ver o que dá...

[Pata-Hari]

por este andar daqui a pouco vamos no sell pivot...!

[Smile]

Primeiro, uma pequena correcção ao português do post anterior onde se lê "à muito que tal..." deve-se ler "há muito que tal...".

Os Pivot de B/O = 965.5 e B/D = 959.0. Pelo Call dele é comprar o B/D ou 2-4 pontos abaixo.

Acho também que o vix está a subir muito, mas se calhar é um Too much Too Son no Vix. Porque está a subir bastante sem acompanhamento de quedas grandes no indice. E como o Trin está sem grande subida, pouco a cima de 1.0. Vamos ver

[alex01]

Fez todo o sentido, no menu entender, não ter havido trade's no dia de ontem de acordos com os SETUP's previstos.

A sessão até agora tem corrido como o previsto na estratégia, ou seja abertura em baixa e entrar longo no BUY PIVOT. Tenho é um bocado de receio de entrar longo com o VIX neste estado. O que é que acham ?

[Pata-Hari]

Boa boa..

[Smile]

Primeira analise: o vix está muito feio para longos. um gap up de 1.20 a cima dos 25 e já vai a 25.6, à muito que tal não acontecia.

Ver como ficam os pivots de primeira hora e ver os high five no caso de atingir o B/O ou B/D.

Atenção: disclaimer, isto não é, nem pretende ser aconselhamento de investimento.

[Smile]

Eu quando tenho tempo e paciência sigo no lycos e sempre que aquela messagem a dizer que a demo expirou aparece, carregar no back do browser.

Mas também tenho o RTQdownloader que vai buscar a informação ao yahoo directamente (que é de borla). Já agora o simbolo do yahoo do trin é ^STI.N.

[Pata-Hari]

Lycos, perdão, não é yahoo!

[Pata-Hari]

E onde segues o trin? eu costumava seguir pelo yahoo mas aquilo agora é pago...

[Smile]

Hoje estou um pouco atrapalhado de tempo e logo vou à abertura do melhor estádio do Mundo, eheheheh, Alvalade XXI.

Mas ainda em relação à sessão de ontem, acho que foi um pouco aldrabado aquele ficar de fora dele, mas... Acho que no dia anterior havia mais razões para não entrar do que ontem. Tendo em conta que ele fazia um Call completamente bull.

Um sinal a ter em conta (atenção nota pessoal) que nestes dois dias sempre que o trin foi superior a 1.80 o mercado reagiu sempre para cima uns 5 pontos nos minutos seguintes. Sendo um bom ponto de fecho de curtos ou abertura de longos.

Hoje e tendo em conta o valor dos futuros a esta hora (positivos) se calhar é seguir o call de venda no Sell Pivot. Contudo e para os setups dele o TRIN de abertura é um dos valores que ele chama mais a atenção e que eu tenho visto resultar melhor.

Exemplo: dias atrás, peço desculpa por não conseguir precisar, o S&P caia nos primeiros 30 min. 5 pontos e o trin estava a 0.40 indicava fortes subidas, acabou por ir aos 1001 subindo 15. Bom ponto de entrada e um sinal claro de bull day.

Vou tentar descrever hoje os setups que, a meu ver, forem ocorrendo após a 1ª hora...

[Pata-Hari]

Caramba, isto parece complexo à brava, vamos lá ver o que dá. Curioso o comentário a ontem, pelos vistos a coisa não teria corrido assim tão bem...

Smile, hoje precisamos da tua ajuda para ir interpretanto os acontecimentos

[Pata-Hari]

imagem que faltava (teste)

[Figas]

Trade Setup Summary for Tuesday, August 5, 2003:
No TCF Trade Setups occured on Tuesday

Recap of Tuesday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining us today.

Our Headline Call for Tuesday turned out to be wrong as we were looking for a move higher off of the early lows. There was a bounce off of the BreakDown which was the first Hour One pivot hit but due to the Mega Bearish High 5 that bounce had no power behind it.

We had mentioned in the Morning Call Briefing that IF WE HIT THE BREAKDOWN AGAIN AS THE FIRST HOUR ONE PIVOT that "it could be associated with a Bear Ugly day". I even made a slight joke about it because our underlying Market Force indicators were mostly bullish and we were not expecting a regular Bear Ugly type day however if the first Hour One pivot hit was the BreakDown then a selloff was expected.

Because I could see this in the TCF indicators I thought of old Murphy's law and said to myself, "now that I have mentioned this the market will probably hit the B/D first and then sell off without an official Bear Ugly day just to tweak ol Mohan".

We associate regular Bear Ugly days as gapping lower off the open with some market crushing news affecting the open. The type of day we had on Tuesday I have referred to many times in the past as "Sneak Down Bear Ugly days" and they are extremely rare. In fact, in my recollection over the past 14 months or so since I have been doing these briefings in public I only remember 2-3 of the Sneak Down Bear Ugly days. These occur when the market has some underlying weakness and bad news ready to be released but the market starts eroding FIRST as the High Five move into the Bear Ugly levels.

We also had our TRIN Buy On Open Gauge fizzle out and went into aberration as prices held below the 979.30 opening. THIS WAS ALSO A BEARISH SIGN. You can see how valuable this gauge can be in giving us additional market bias information. When the prices rallied back up the the top of the Value Area at 978.70 and failed to get a footing there with prices holding below the open down they went back to the BreakDown at 973.50 and headed south.

We recorded no official TCF Trade setup for today because we did not have a Bear Ugly day starting the day out and the High 5 were too bearish at the time of the BreakDown to buy right at the B/D. Because of the close proximity of the Buy Pivot Target and our recommendation to Buy that target we were waiting for that price to trade at 969.50 but it never did.

All the other action with the resistance at the top of the VA and the pullback again to the B/D area occured later in the session and none of these movements consituted an official TCF trade setup. However, if you went short upon seeing this action occur as some of you did this was NOT A WRONG IDEA and certainly panned out nicely. We are just not going to record it as an official TCF setup.

Today's Call & Briefing:
Because of the larger scale sell off on Tuesday we are going to be looking for a bounce off the lows today if we get a LOWER OPENING AND EARLY PUSH DOWN. However, we are expecting that any bounces off those early lows that do occur will end up consolidating in the mid to lower third of the range level today. In other words, CONSOLIDATION will be the name of the game today. We may get another "stand aside" day like Tuesday or we may be able to get aboard the bounce off the lower opening if we get it. Our expectation is for a larger scale rally to kick in on Thursday after today's consolidation balances price value.

We want to look to be extra cautious about taking any trades today unless we get a crystal clear TCF setup. Of course, this is our policy everyday but somedays I definitely feel more certain about a directional bias and we trade with extra confidence on a particular market setup. Today however is expected to be extra tricky unless we clearly get the lower opening and early lower move.

TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: We want to Buy the Buy Pivot Target today if that price is hit on an early drop in the markets. More information on this below in that section.

We want to Buy the BreakDown if that is the first pivot hit of the Hour one pivots. If the High 5 are bearish at the time of the B/D then look to subtract 2-4 points from the B/D low. See how this number correlates with the Buy Pivot Target at 952.25 like we did on Tuesday in order to get the best price on our long trade.

If we get a higher opening and a higher early run up in prices then we need to prepare to SELL The BREAKOUT Hour One Pivot. This will occur if the market opens higher and the market attempts to rally in the first hour. If this occurs and we hit the B/O first then we need to see how the NAZ and TRIN are looking. If the Dow is up +80 or so but the NAZ (our nickname for the nasdaq composite index) is holding back being up only +10 OR LESS with the TRIN up above 1.00 or higher then we need to look to Sell the BreakOut. If the High 5 are bullish with this early higher open and rally then prepare to add 2-4 points to the B/O high and go short in that zone. Kindly read the manual on this setup and the BreakOut Buy setup so you will be able to clearly distinquish between the two.

A QUICK NOTE ON THE TRIN BUY GAUGE: When one of these TRIN Buy/Sell setups occurs and we apply the gauge off the opening price we look at a + or - 12-15 points as a stop point where we consider the trade setup has bombed out. On Tuesday's TRIN Buy on Open setup the opening was 979.30 so we would look at the area below that of 967.30-964.30 to consider the setup a failure and this would increase our bias MORE on the opposite side of the gauge which would be BEARISH for the rest of Tuesday and into the early going at least on Wednesday. In this way we are hoping ideally for a lower open and early run lower in reaction to this so we can get a buy position on.

Value Area: 969.40 - 981.00
We are trading substantially below the Value Area and this is a bearish sign. For things to turn from bearish back to neutral we would need to see the market climb up off the low this morning and GET INSIDE THIS VALUE AREA to close today. Because we are expecting consolidation today in the mid to lower range the prices would have to rally substantially off the early lows to accomplish a neutral close in the Value Area. So based on this we are most likely going to get a lower close below the VA today but this will draw the Value area down for Thursday when we are expecting a larger scale rally to occur.

Buy Pivot Target: 951.25 - 952.25
Let's go ahead and Buy this target today on an early push lower off the opening. Use a 5 point stop at 946.25. If the market OPENS AT THIS BUY PIVOT for any reason then CANCEL the trade idea and wait for the first hour to finish.

Sell Pivot Target: 974.75 - 973.75
Although not expected we can go ahead and sell this sell pivot today on a higher opening and early run up in prices. Use a 5 point stop at 979.75 if entry is hit.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 984.20
Well, after holding below the Pit Bull for a few days even though prices were being drawn back up towards this 10 day Moving Average they finally caved in and got slammed. We now will be maintaining a SELL RALLIES mentality on any higher rallies along the way as we go until we once again return to CROSSOVER ALERT which is when the market closes within 10 handles of this price.

Pro Trader's Action
Make sure that we get an exact TCF trade setup today as we are in a mixed TCF Market Force indicator setup. We want to buy the lower move on a lower opening and early drop but at the Buy Pivot target or the BreakDown. Look for a higher opening to produce a rally that we expect will fizzle out later if our criteria for that sets up.

With the expected CONSOLIDATION occuring today we may see the range shrink after the first 2 hours and go flat all day. So we don't want to get caught in any later day trades if we don't get a TCF trade setup in the first 2 hours.

Good luck today and trade with extra caution. All the best of success. Mohan

[Figas]

August 6, 2003