Ao minuto: Praças europeias respiram de alívio, indiferentes a possível violação de cessar-fogo

[Smile]

Em primeiro lugar, digo-te que não negoceio futuros mas sim os CFDs sobre o cash do S&P na LJCarregosa que tem uma excelente aplicação de trade e dá para seguir em tempo real os valores dos futuros.

Em relação aos High Five, são os indicadores que o Mohan segue para verificar e autorizar os setup previstos por ele, que são: o Trin, Tick, Vix, Nasdaq e MER.

Mas em relação aos indicadores vê no site da 21 century futures http://www.21stcenturyfutures.com e do lado direito tens lá um campo chamado... adivinha, High Five, eheheheh.

Já agora deixo a minha opinião. Acho que os indicadores e os setups que ele define são muito porreiros tais como a quebra do máximo da primeira hora(B/O), Bear Ugly, etc... Mas acho que por vezes o call antecipado não sai muito feliz. Servem para estar preparado para vários cenários...

Espero ter ajudado...

[alex01]

Smile,

Qual é a correctora onde negoceias estes futuros ? É possível abrir curtos e longos ?

Tenho acompanhado os morning call's do Mohan e gostava de me dedicar a mercados mais líquidos que o nosso PSI.

Quais são os indicadores High Five ?


Obrigado

[Smile]

...

[Smile]

Para quem segue os setups do Mohan (como eu sigo), aprecebeu-se que aquela queda era só aparente. Digo isto porque era só seguir os indicadores High Five.

Com um Trin Mega Bullish < 0.6 e iniciou a 0.42, um Tick quase sempre maior 0 e MER a subir 0.70 com os Futuros nos mínimos do dia e quem leu este Morning Call de hoje teve o setup perfeito para abrir longos e ganhar uns 10 pontitos.

Bons trades...

[Figas]

Trade Setup Summary for Wednesday, July 30, 2003:
No TCF Trade Setups for Wednesday.

Recap of Wednesday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining us today.

On our Headline Call for Wednesday we were looking for the market to move lower on a higher opening if we saw prices holding below the opening. Conversely we were expecting prices to move higher on a lower opening with the S&P500 holding above the opening. We only do the double sided Headline Calls occasionally as the market warrants or when it gets in a condition where it appears a "line is drawn in the sand" so to speak on market direction. Usually this type of trading activity centers around the 10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average and yesterday was no exception. We saw the lower prices hold out on Wednesday after the higher open by about 3 handles. The market quickly pushed lower and in spite of weak rally attempts prices held the lower zone. As you all know we had an incredibly tight range on Wednesday too, coming in at 8.50, which is really slow action.

After the market opened and pushed lower we had a very weak High 5 but the day did not set up with what we call a "Bear Ugly" scenario. Because of this we were preparing to Buy the BreakDown and subtract 2-4 points creating a buy zone in the 981.25-983.25 as shown on the chart. The actual B/D price was 985.25. We only hit 984.00 on the lows, the market pushed up about 5 points and then just flip flopped around all day going nowhere. So because of this no trade was entered and we just stood aside after our cut off time for trading the TCF setups came around 1:30 est on Wednesday.

It is vitally important for you to see how valuable our system was today in NOT PUTTING A TRADE ON. Why is this? In professional S&P500 futures trading the main goal is SURVIVAL. That means to make trades that do not consistently lose money. The next goal is to become a profitable trader so you can make a living and function in a career as an S&P500 trader, which is our goal on these Morning Call briefings. To have a system that keeps you out of the market BEFOREHAND when the day ends up as a "go nowhere day" is a very good sign. We also had suggeted this in the briefing when we mentioned being extra cautious about trading and being more willing than normal to stand aside. This proved to be sage advice for Wednesday's action.

Today's Call & Briefing:
On today's Headline Call we are going to be looking for higher prices overall. I want to say there will be a decent size rally but with the ranges as of late I am not completely comfortable saying this. Overall our TCF Market Force indicators are strong and suggesting a bullish move up today.

The caveat is that we are in day 2 of the TRIN sell on Open trading gauge that we described on yesterday's Morning Call. So far this is panning out but it will bomb if prices hold above today's open and rise and hold above 991.00. Even if we get a continued sell off today the idea of our call will be to still look for higher prices off the early lows.

Coming into the end of the month is traditionally bullish on the last 2 days before the end of the month and the first 1-2 days following the beginnig of the month. This reasoning is attributed to stock brokers nationwide needing to cover their mortgages. Those final trades suggested right before the close of the month are commissionable on the following week's paycheck which is usually when a good percentage of mortgages nationwide are due. I first noticed this phenomena long ago in the early 90's when it was described to me and it has been pretty consistently true unless we are in an environment where it is just not hip to call an important client and tell them to buy a bunch of stock. We had lot of those month ends over the last several years. This phenomena was also mentioned in the super cool book, "Tricks of the Floor Traders" by Weintraub. That's a fabulous book if you want to read it for further education.

TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: Be especially on the lookout today for a BreakOut Buy. You can reveiw the Trading Handbook for the specific details of this setup or re-read the details of what I wrote on yesterday's Morning Call. Always have this information in front of you on your desk when you are trading until the EXACT TCF setup criteria gets ingrained into your memory. By doing this you will be prepared for virtually any market scenario and have the ammunition you need to trade it. Combined with time and experience you will become highly skilled at following our approach and will see the S&P500 points build up in your account.

Maybe we will be totally wrong on this call today, the TRIN Sell will kick in to high gear, and the markets will set up with a Bear Ugly setup. So what? We will be prepared either way. If you see the market gap down lower today on the opening of the regular exchange traded hours when the FULL VOLUME is behind the prices and the High 5 go Bear Ugly with some heavy associated bad news then we will be prepared to sell the BreakDown.

If we get a bearish early reading on the High 5 and lower prices similar to Wednesday's action then we will look to BUY the BreakDown.

Although we are expecting some kind of resolution to the dead ranges as of late today let's still remain prepared to have another flat day. This is usually visible in the early going by either reading the amount of volume behind the price ticks or just watching the bar and candles to see what kind of speed and force they are exhibiting. This is a skill developed over time so if you are relatively new to trading the S&P500 you can start now by watching this and joining in the fun. You need a quote service that has exchange provided data showing the tick by tick volume on the bid and ask prices on the emini. You can also watch the volume charts to see the different power spikes on the specific prices.

Value Area: 985.20 - 988.40
This small Value Area will not be much help to us today other than seeing if prices hold above 988.40 to make our bullish case for today. The real bearish scenario becomes activated if the prices cannot hold the 977-980.00 price zone.

Buy Pivot Target: 983.00 - 984.00
No trade at this pivot today. Range too small.

Sell Pivot Target: 991.50 - 990.50
No trade at this pivot today. The range is too small. Watch for a rally above this price to be bullish or to see the market run up here today and "hang up" near this price. If that occurs they may pop the +4.25 stop/pivot at 995.75 if they really get cooking to the upside. If so then we would look for a possible buy reversal off the "Sell Pivot becomes Buy support with a bull High 5" trade. We would then expect to re-visit the big resistance at the 1000.00 S&P500 handle.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 987.80
As we have discussed, this Pit Bull is acting like a magnet to draw prices back from rallies and to pull em up from drops. This usually means they are going to blow through it to the upside again. If they haven't left it in the dust by dropping lower by now and becoming fully bearish then the chances are it will return to it's original position BEFORE CROSSOVER ALERT which was on the bullish side. We still remain on Crossover Alert today so let's see what we can get going.

Pro Trader's Action
I want to say a special thank you to all of our new subscribers that have joined with us here at 21st Century Futures "Market Call". We have a very exciting year planned with many new services coming out and seminars that will be designed to assist you in moving your trading to the next level. Because we are still getting started and under development please be patient and watch for special announcements.

I am committed in this service to bringing you the most cutting edge S&P500 and emini trading information to assist you in bringing your account into profits. I will be doing an extensive "Ask Mohan" section tomorrow and will alert all of our subscribers by email when it is done. I plan on updating this every few days as I sift through your questions and pick out the vital ones that I have not already covered in that section. Many answers to various questions can be found in our archives also recently updated with over a year of crystal-clear Headline Calls. I have actually been doing these calls for over 5 years on a private basis and just over one year in a public forum.

So for today we are expecting lower early moves to get picked up with buying or we may see an outright BreakOut Buy off the Hour One pivot. If our Headline Call is going to be wrong our experienced subscribers will know what to do. Those of you who are new can kindly read the manual over or even print it out and outline certain parts with a yellow marker to assist your understanding. Keep this on your trading desk along with the "yellow pad" method of tracking all the prices we follow, as described in the "Ask Mohan" section.

Let's see if we can nail 8-10 points on the buy side of the fence today.

All the best of luck and success and I'll see you in the action. Mohan

[Figas]

Market to push higher today.