Treasuries Down, Bull Market End Near?
2 mensagens
|Página 1 de 1
Se bem me lembro, muita surpresa rodeou os mercados devido ao facto de Obrigações e Acções terem subido ao mesmo tempo, num exercício de pura contradição, pois as primeiras denotavam expectativas de fraqueza económica, deflação possível e taxas de juro baixas, enquanto as segundas antecipavam o contrário.
E agora? Se ambas descerem ao mesmo tempo ??
Para esta, não consigo encontrar explicação viável...
bons negócios
dj
E agora? Se ambas descerem ao mesmo tempo ??
Para esta, não consigo encontrar explicação viável...
bons negócios
dj
Cuidado com o que desejas pois todo o Universo pode se conjugar para a sua realização.
-
- Mensagens: 9132
- Registado: 10/11/2002 19:32
- Localização: Planeta Algarve
Treasuries Down, Bull Market End Near?
Treasuries Down, Bull Market End Near?
Monday, July 21, 2003 10:45 a.m. ET
By Wayne Cole
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury prices took the path of least resistance and ticked lower on Monday with confidence at a low ebb after weeks of relentless selling.
So traumatic has been the recent rout that some analysts are hearing the death-knell for the market's entire 3-1/2 year bull trend.
"We believe this is the beginning of the end for bond market bulls," said Merrill Lynch government strategist Joseph Shatz in his latest note to clients.
He saw a chance 10-year yields may trade in a range around 4.0 percent for a brief consolidation period, but fully expected them to continue higher eventually.
"Even after the large move we have had, we still believe 10-year yields are too low and like the 2/10 steepening trade over the intermediate to long term," he added.
Benchmark 10-year yields surged 37 basis points last week after the Federal Reserve released surprisingly strong growth forecasts while playing down the need for radical policy measures to fight deflation.
Since the Fed did promise to keep official interest rates low, short-term yields rose far less, leading to a vicious bear steepening of the yield curve. The gap between two- and 10-year yields jumped 16 basis points last week to 251 basis points and has widened 49 basis points in little more than a month.
On Monday morning, the benchmark 10-year note <US10YT=RR> was 6/32 lower in price giving a yield of 4.03 percent from 4.00 percent late on Friday. This time last month it had been down at 3.36 percent. The 30-year bond <US30YT=RR> eased 10/32 for a yield of 4.96 percent form 4.94 percent.
At the short-end of the curve, two-year notes <US2YT=RR> were 1/32 easier in price to yield 1.50 percent from 1.49 percent late on Friday. The five-year yield <US5YT=RR> inched up to 2.87 percent from 2.86 percent.
NURSING A GRUDGE
There is scant data of note this week, leaving bonds to trail around after stocks <.DJI><.SPX><.IXIC> while waiting for the latest wise words from Federal Reserve officials.
In particular Fed governor Ben Bernanke speaks on "An unwelcome fall in inflation" on Wednesday and may reprise the options available to the central bank to head off deflation.
Bernanke is credited with starting the whole deflation debate in a speech last year and was one of the first Fed members to suggest the bank might buy longer-dated Treasuries to keep yields down.
That idea contributed to the huge rally in the market, which was rudely reversed in recent weeks as Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan played down the danger of deflation and the need for unconventional policy measures.
"The market's nursing a grudge because it was the Fed that started all the talk of radical measures, and then it was the Fed that all but ruled them out," said one trader at a U.S. primary dealer.
"The Fed likes to say it has plenty of options (to fight deflation), but in reality there's problems with all of them," he added. "It'll be interesting to see if Bernanke acknowledges that, or just tries to jawbone the market some more."
Also speaking on Wednesday is Dallas Fed President Robert McTeer, followed on Friday by Richmond President Alfred Broaddus.
The economic calendar is light with just leading indicators Monday, chain store sales on Tuesday and then durable goods and home sales on Friday.
There will be some fresh supply to absorb since Treasury holds a two-year note auction on Wednesday. The amount on offer will be announced later Monday and analysts generally look for another $25 billion issue.
Copyright © 2003 Reuters Limited.
Monday, July 21, 2003 10:45 a.m. ET
By Wayne Cole
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury prices took the path of least resistance and ticked lower on Monday with confidence at a low ebb after weeks of relentless selling.
So traumatic has been the recent rout that some analysts are hearing the death-knell for the market's entire 3-1/2 year bull trend.
"We believe this is the beginning of the end for bond market bulls," said Merrill Lynch government strategist Joseph Shatz in his latest note to clients.
He saw a chance 10-year yields may trade in a range around 4.0 percent for a brief consolidation period, but fully expected them to continue higher eventually.
"Even after the large move we have had, we still believe 10-year yields are too low and like the 2/10 steepening trade over the intermediate to long term," he added.
Benchmark 10-year yields surged 37 basis points last week after the Federal Reserve released surprisingly strong growth forecasts while playing down the need for radical policy measures to fight deflation.
Since the Fed did promise to keep official interest rates low, short-term yields rose far less, leading to a vicious bear steepening of the yield curve. The gap between two- and 10-year yields jumped 16 basis points last week to 251 basis points and has widened 49 basis points in little more than a month.
On Monday morning, the benchmark 10-year note <US10YT=RR> was 6/32 lower in price giving a yield of 4.03 percent from 4.00 percent late on Friday. This time last month it had been down at 3.36 percent. The 30-year bond <US30YT=RR> eased 10/32 for a yield of 4.96 percent form 4.94 percent.
At the short-end of the curve, two-year notes <US2YT=RR> were 1/32 easier in price to yield 1.50 percent from 1.49 percent late on Friday. The five-year yield <US5YT=RR> inched up to 2.87 percent from 2.86 percent.
NURSING A GRUDGE
There is scant data of note this week, leaving bonds to trail around after stocks <.DJI><.SPX><.IXIC> while waiting for the latest wise words from Federal Reserve officials.
In particular Fed governor Ben Bernanke speaks on "An unwelcome fall in inflation" on Wednesday and may reprise the options available to the central bank to head off deflation.
Bernanke is credited with starting the whole deflation debate in a speech last year and was one of the first Fed members to suggest the bank might buy longer-dated Treasuries to keep yields down.
That idea contributed to the huge rally in the market, which was rudely reversed in recent weeks as Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan played down the danger of deflation and the need for unconventional policy measures.
"The market's nursing a grudge because it was the Fed that started all the talk of radical measures, and then it was the Fed that all but ruled them out," said one trader at a U.S. primary dealer.
"The Fed likes to say it has plenty of options (to fight deflation), but in reality there's problems with all of them," he added. "It'll be interesting to see if Bernanke acknowledges that, or just tries to jawbone the market some more."
Also speaking on Wednesday is Dallas Fed President Robert McTeer, followed on Friday by Richmond President Alfred Broaddus.
The economic calendar is light with just leading indicators Monday, chain store sales on Tuesday and then durable goods and home sales on Friday.
There will be some fresh supply to absorb since Treasury holds a two-year note auction on Wednesday. The amount on offer will be announced later Monday and analysts generally look for another $25 billion issue.
Copyright © 2003 Reuters Limited.
Abraços
Figas
Sempre a aprender
Figas
Sempre a aprender
-
- Mensagens: 420
- Registado: 3/12/2002 17:45
- Localização: Portugal
2 mensagens
|Página 1 de 1
Quem está ligado:
Utilizadores a ver este Fórum: aaugustobb_69, Bing [Bot], darkreflection, fosgass2020, HFCA, icemetal, Investbem, latbal, m-m, MR32, OCTAMA, Olhar Leonino, PAULOJOAO, yggy e 218 visitantes