Ao minuto: "Mantenham os preços do petróleo baixos!", apela Trump

[Figas]

Tem acertado sim.

Figas

[Pata-Hari]

Figas, o tipo tem acertado...? é que como estive fora, não tenho seguido....

[Figas]

Trade Setup Summary for Friday, July 18, 2003:
No TCF Trade setups due to no Headline Call on Friday.

Recap of Friday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome back from the weekend. I hope you were able to do some relaxing things and get re energized for a busy week of trading this week.

Let me start out this briefing from an important email I received from a recent subscriber who joined with us. Here goes:

"Your message to new traders on 7/18/2003 was a very important one as I see it. Prior to connecting to your service I had spent many hours over a couple of years learning other methods of trading and with minimal success. How about none? When I began trying to understand your approach I made the mistake of trying to combine what I had learned with your methods. I believed the other guys teachings should work for me, so it was hard to make trades with setups which appeared so different.I have now committed myself to trading your setups and using your mentoring exclusively. Of my last 10 trading days I have had 8 winning days. I appreciate so much your excellent teaching. And your consistent patience.

Certainly I am very honored and grateful to hear such encouraging comments but mostly I am thrilled to see an intelligent trader turn his trading around using the TCF approach and make steady money. I am not trying to be some big B.S trading Guru or anything on these briefings. I have my sleeves rolled up every day and am working my butt off ONLY to assist traders in getting results like this. We all want the dough$ and that is why we trade. If I don't see emails like this I am going to hang it up (for other great email comments see our "testimonials" section). That is the purpose of these briefings. Ol Mohan is never going to sell out to being all just fluff and talk and self promotion. I am committed to bringing you CUTTING EDGE ACTION and that's it.

For those of you who wonder, if we ever grow in size where our methods became too widespread and appeared to become 'watered down" (highly unlikely) we will RE-TOOL as necessary to always stay ahead of the crowd. We did it just the other day when I needed to add our original idea back into the manual with the "Buy Pivot becomes Sell Resistance with a Bearish High Five" (and it's sister trade with the sell pivot). We will always keep you abreast of any changes here on these briefings.

Also keep an eye on the ASK MOHAN section which is an extremely important 2nd half of your subcription. I want to make sure you get every damn dimes worth of your buck a day you have spent with us ....and much, much more.

Friday was an Options expiration day and we do not offer Headline Calls or trade suggestions on those days. The market broke out of the Hour One BreakOut price at 987.75 at 2:13est with a bullish High Five and closed em up higher. This is partially bullish for today as we finish off an upward pattern movement.

Today's Call & Briefing:
Our Headline Call for today is for the Market to make another move up and try to hold on to the gains. This is based on a LOWER OPENING below Friday's close. If this occurs we are expecting the market to pull back later in the session off those highs after struggling to hold on.

Now as you can see with our CAUTION alert we will be on the extreme lookout for a HIGHER OPENING and a rapid, early rally right off the opening half hour or so to fizzle out very quickly later in the morning session. So keep an eye out for this opening action and you will be able to adapt accordingly.

Earnings season kicks into high gear this week with more earnings coming out. For one of the best updates on earnings reports and market statistics along this line read Phil Erlanger's newsletter available from 21st Century Investors. I have been reading it daily for over a year now and it is always an important read for me.

How will earnings season affect the market? Well, it's hard to say just yet but our overall bias for this week is BULLISH. Let's see how the day to day indications fall into place.

Be sure to watch for the market to hold above the opening price today. Whether on a lower open and early push up or a jump higher off the open. The key to noticing if the bullish action is going to stay intact will be to see a move above the Pit Bull that holds.

So essentially for the bullish case to have a go at it we need to get back into the 1000.00 handle and hold above it for any upside to get some serious teeth. At this point, holding below the Pit Bull currently at the 996.00 area is going to maintain the overall weakness we have been seeing

TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR:. We will be watching the BreakOut today very carefully to determine if it is going to be a "second level BreakOut Buy" if we see that Hour One pivot hit first. If that is the case and we see the Dow flat (our definition of a flat Dow is if it is trading under +50 or lower) with the NAZ leading the market being up +12-15 or more with the TRIN below .80 or lower then we will be ready to buy the B/O.

If this setup is NOT occurring then we will want to look to sell the BreakOut. The question today will be how much strength the early rally (if we get one) appears to have. If the High Five are real strong but the Dow has already rallied up over +80 or more then we need to look to sell the B/O and add up to 4 points to the BreakOut high. Just be careful that there is not some real strong, positive earnings report or rumour causing the market to rally with great strength. If this is the case and you cannot bring yourself to buy the B/O then just let it go and there may be patterns later in the day for signaling an end to the move.

If the market opens LOWER and we hit the BreakDown first as the first of the Hour One pivots then we will be looking to buy that B/D. As always, be sure to watch for an Bear Ugly type openings and radically negative news that could cause the market to fall into a tailspin like we saw on Thursday's educational example.

See below for how we want to handle the Buy/Sell pivots today.

Value Area: 981.00 - 990.30
We are closing right at the top of the Value Area and based on the location of the lower price end of the VA and our Headline Call we should see double support down there. So look for any early drops to hold the Buy Pivot Target and the VA low at 981.00 and let's see if we can get a push up from there.

Prices holding above the VA are bullish and rallies off that higher level that pullback will find support at the 990.00 level if the bullish action is genuine.

Buy Pivot Target: 982.50 - 983.50
Let's go ahead and buy this buy pivot target on a lower opening and an early run down to this level. If this occurs we would expect to see that second level of support hold at 981.00 as described above. Use a 5 point stop below the Pivot at 977.50 and ideally the --4.25 stop will hold em up. Look to hold long up through the BreakOut and any additional S&p500 points we want to add to that to either revese or hold into a strong breakout.

Sell Pivot Target: 995.75 - 994.75
No trade at this Pivot Target today.

If our Headline Call pans out and we get a rally of some sort then this number should get taken out to the upside. The +4.25 stop pivot puts us right at the 1000.00 handle so as mentioned in "Today's Call" section this will be a big "line in the sand" to see if we can get decisively back into the 1000.00 handle action and above.

If they blow through this price and the High Five are bullish then we will want to be on the lookout for a reversal buy here. This means we need to REALLY see the prices blow through the 1000.00 price and not by just a few ticks. The whole purpose of the reversals on these pivots is that that +4.25 stop/pivot in this case is BEING TOTALLY REJECTED by the price action. We may need to consider a small "fudge factor" of a few ticks if the prices go up there and just sort of toy with the price.

Remember our recent RE-TOOL of the reversal we just made. If the prices do blow through the +4.25 stop/pivot at 1000.00 then we need to buy a reflex drop down to the 995.75 +1.00 point or 996.75 (recent re-tool idea) to get long.

This just happens to be the exact PIT BULL 10 Day Moving Average. Don't you just love the way all these numbers work in sync together. It never ceases to amaze me either.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 996.70
Here is a key "line in the sand" right above the Sell Pivot Target and we should know pretty early how this number is going to be treated. Either it's a full on steel wall of resistance or they run through it like a hot knife through butter. Remember, due to an indicator we call a SLAMMER which is one of our proprietary indicators, if the market get smoked up really fast EARLY then we are going to most likely reverse rapidly when it peaks.

Pro Trader's Action
We are starting the week off with a lot of hot indicator setups calling for some wild action today.

It's Monday and Monday's are the most bullish days of the week. But in the current setup we could see an early rally fizzle out just as fast. If they open em up lower then we could get one more blast upwards before they fizzle out later in the afternoon. I've given you the criteria to watch for today and I know you will be able to spot it if you have studied our TCF S&P500 Trading Manual available right here on the site.

YOU ARE MISSING OUT if you have not read our Trading Manual. Long time, experienced traders are emailing me EVERYDAY to tell me this is the most dynamite S&P500 trading book they have ever read. As a subscriber for only a 1.00$ a day (295$ annual or check our current special) you get this manual which traders have told me is worth over 20,000$ EASY.

In addition to that you get access to our regularly updated ASK MOHAN section. Each day of our Morning Call briefings is like another page in the trading book. We have now just added our over one year of TRADING ARCHIVES which is an amazing supplement to the manual. The word is out on the street.

So thanks for joining us today. Let's see if we can nail a short trade off an early over extended rally or look to buy if they dip em down early and things aren't Bear Ugly. Either one should be good for 8-10 points.

Let's get rockin and get this week off to a good start. Good luck and all the best of success, Mohan

[Figas]

July 21, 2003

Market to move higher today with later session pulling back off the highs. CAUTION: An early, large rally will reverse quickly.