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[JCS]

Oxalá, venham daí boas noticias...

[Figas]

July Mich Sentiment
Updated: 11-Jul-03





Highlights

Briefing.com Forecast: 91.0
Market Consensus: 91.0
Key Factors

Modest July rise expected to follow the June dip.
Tax cut effect (immediate added disposable income) adds to 19% Apr/May post-war surge.
Expectations to lead the gain as the equity market provides encouragement as well.
The present situation component is edging higher but dragged by weak economy, manufacturing and labor market.
Index doesn't provide an accurate read on spending better led by disposable income growth and financing rates.

Big Picture

A new cyclical (and decade) low arrived in Mar before the post-war rebound now leaves the index 12% higher in June. The post 9/11 upturn was surprisingly rapid but had been erased with the addition of corporate defraud, the weak economy and intense geopolitical tensions provided a drop. Lower post war energy prices and the lift in equities provide the current upturn as the weak labor market and economy will slow the gains. The U Mich survey is significantly smaller than the Conference Board's, includes a longer outlook (for expectations) and questions are focused on the household compared to the business heavy CB survey. With the consumer carrying the economy's growth low sentiment increases growth concerns but the index better tracks the consumers' mood than spending habits.