Novas medidas do Governo pressionam contas em 0,6% do PIB

[Fernando dos Aidos]

Trade Setup Summary for Tuesday, July 15, 2003:
No TCF Trade setup today. See chart for details.

Recap of Tuesday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining with us today.

We were looking for the market to sell off on Tuesday and urged caution about a whip saw type market with Greenspan speaking at the House Finance committee. Greenspan tried to pump up the markets with his language but the markets still bombed out on Tuesday and fulfilled our Headline Call with lower prices. Indeed, there was some whip saw action occurring but not of the fast and violent type usually seen on significant interest rate announcement days.

Our only strong trade recommendation was to Sell the Sell Pivot target on a higher opening and we got that BUT MISSED THE SELL PIVOT TARGET BY A TICK. That's the way the mop flops sometimes in the markets and there is not much you can do when that occurs. Some of you got short at the Sell Pivot target 15 minutes or so before the market opened when the prices did trade through that zone.

There was another shorting opportunity that we discussed but it was not an official TCF trade setup. That was clearly discussed in the VALUE AREA section of the Morning Call where we said, "ideally we will get a move up off a higher opening that either fails to get into the VA or falls out off the center of the Value Area back below this VA zone. That would confirm our bearish scenario for lower prices today". Can't say it much clearer than that. Anyway, if you are new to our TCF briefings you can make a note of this information and see how valuable it will be the next time you see this scenario set up.

The LSS Sell day we had mentioned for Tuesday was "fed" by the higher prices so when the gap up open occurred you would have wanted to be ready to get short. This is how you think as a pro trader reading these Morning Call briefings.

However, as mentioned the Sell Pivot Target was missed by a tick and after this there was really not an official TCF set up. The High Five had been described in the briefing as possibly setting up for a "sneak down Bear Ugly" and you can see that this was attempted. The markets cracked the B/D at 1001.50 but in a very even, gradual pace. Support came in at the 995.00 area as suggested with the 6 points below the B/D being EXACTLY where we said the B/D would falter. We had the Pit Bull just below that and the --4.25 stop/pivot on the Buy Pivot Target both hold at the 993.00 area. How do you guys like that accuracy ? Not bad for a buck a day huh!

Today's Call & Briefing:
Our Headline Call for today is looking for prices to continue to sell off after an early attempt to show strength and rally. We are expecting that although the rally may try and get some teeth ultimately it will falter and fall back at some point today. Even in spite of this we will be on the lookout for a BreakOut buy rally attempt.

Here at TCF we are always prepared for the right action. Just keep in mind that sometimes,even if our Headline Call does not pan out, as a Pro Trader you want to still be ready to identify the exact TCF setup to make the money you need. Remind yourself daily that we trade so we can pay your mortgage, buy gifts for your loved ones, and take those well needed vacations. As soon as you take 100% responsibility for your trading, what you read and most important how you interpret what you read then you are ready to go 100% PRO. The markets are such that it is a game of survival and the right thing to do is the needful thing.

A good example is yesterdays action. An amateur could have been sitting in remorse because his or her trade did not get filled on the 1010.50 short at the Sell Pivot Target. But a Pro would say..."So What- Big Deal"..."what is happening RIGHT NOW in the markets? They would have spotted the failure of the VA and could have gone short there instead of wasting time pondering the fact that the Sell Pivot target got missed by a tick. You have to be tough in this business no doubt.

TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY:Be on the lookout today for a Breakout Buy at the Hour One B/O after the first hour has transpired. The main thing you want to watch for is the Dow to be flat at the time of the B/O with the NAZ leading the markets being up +12-15 or more. When you see the NAZ moving up and the Dow rather quiet or flat by our definition then these are often the times when the market will sneak up on the public and rally when most traders are least expecting it. These usually occur by the way with a flat to lower opening and no real fireworks in the first hour. Just watch for the bullish High Five as discussed in the manual on this setup.

If there is a substantial Dow Rally (above +60 or more) and the market is preparing to hit the BreakOut with the High Five bullish then look to GO SHORT but plan to add 2-4 points to that BreakOut before selling it short. Ranges have been small lately so plan to take 8 points on the move if it pans out.

There is an outside chance we could see a Bear Ugly market set up today. I am not totally expecting this but there is some evidence of the possibility as we are looking for a lower level sell off either later today or tomorrow. When I see this possibility I like to warn you about it so at least it does not come as a surprise. If the BreakDown hits first today then we will be looking to Buy the B/D IF the Bear Ugly scenario is NOT setting up. Kindly refer to your Trading Handbook for all the details on this setup.

Value Area: 997.40 - 1,005.00
Like yesterdays trading action today will also be a chance to watch for a rally attempt and then a drop back into the VA for a bearish sign. Depending on how much rally attempt we get this VA zone could be crucial to see if we are going to get that lower sell action. We may just get a pullback off the rally if we have one and not get back to this touch this zone. That would be on a substantial rally to new highs for the month however. The 1015.00 price is a big resistance area and there will be a struggle with prices there. Watch this in relation to the B/O if we get one.

Buy Pivot Target: 994.00 - 995.00
No trade at this target today. Just observe for lower price moves finding support at the Buy Pivot minus the --4.25 stop/pivot at 989.75.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,008.75 - 1,007.75
No trade at this target today. Watch carefully the +4.25 stop/pivot at 1013.00 for resistance coming in just below that critical 1015.00. Watch for BreakOut Buys to stall here too if the Dow has rallied ahead of the rest of the market and the NAZ is below +10 pts.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 995.70
This Pit Bull has been literally acting "strong as a bull" in holding up the market lately. A second run through it to the downside (which we are expecting soon) should push prices towards the low 980's and then our goal of 977.00.

Pro Trader's Action
For today's action we are overall expecting a higher push up in the morning session that is either going to be strong with BreakOut Buy capabilities OR we are going to see the Dow rally ahead of itself, find the NAZ holding back and later see the market sell off from this B/O zone.

We should be ready today for any type of setup as there are indications that any variation of the Hour One pivot setups could occur. This is not always the case but today these indications are coming up so we need to prepare accordingly.

"ASK MOHAN" section in full swing: I am spending a lot of time each day reviewing your questions and answering the ones I feel are really vital for assisting you in reading, understanding and trading these briefings. Join us on this dynamic section frequently. I'll send all of our subscribers an Email when I post new Q&As.

Let's see which TCF Trade setup is going to put 8 handles in our pockets today. I've described the various setups we need to watch out for and we just need to be ready and prepared to pull the trigger.

All the best of luck and success. I'll see you in the action. Mohan

[Fernando dos Aidos]

Market to continue to sell off today from an early attempt to rally.