Mohan
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Trade Setup Summary for Thursday, July 10, 2003:
Sell 990.75/ Cover 982.75 +8pts. (Sell B/D with Bear Ugly market setup)
Recap of Thursday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining us today.
Well, they smoked em down hard as we got the Bear Ugly action we predicted on our Headline Call. The market gapped open 6-7 handles lower at 994.50 and selling kicked in which was great not only for the trade profits but the academic aspect of training you in S&P500.
I had mentioned about how for those of our subscribers who have seen what we call a Bear Ugly market it is easier to understand. So fortunately for us all on Thursday our call panned out nicely and we were able to get a decent academic example of what I was talking about for our new subscribers. The markets put in the Hour One pivot low at 990.75 and at 10:33est the BreakDown hit and got us short. Interestingly enough this 990.75 was the exact --4.25 stop/pivot off the Buy Pivot Target we had suggesting keeping an eye on. There was a reflex bounce to just under the 995.00 Buy Pivot target which would have been a short reversal had it been hit.
Those who are experienced reading and trading with our briefings got the chance to "front run" the BreakDown and get short. I got a lot of emails from successful front runners of the BreakDown on Thursday and that is super cool as we showed those guys down on the floor that we were ready for action. They hammered the market through the B/D just 3 minutes after the first hour had transpired and this was your point to nail the short if you didn't front run the action. You can see clearly on the chart above that they smacked em down lower all day and we eventually were able to cover up the short for 8 handles profit.
Due to the 2nd day of selling, the market got overcooked to the downside and they rallied em back up RIGHT TO THE PIT BULL 10 DAY MOVING AVERAGE going into the close.
There are 2 Important things to note on Thursday's action: First,we had seen the markets get hit with selling on Wednesday. When we get a second level sell off like on Thursday you will want to look to take less points on another short trade if the market is not getting strongly hammered. You could see that Thursday's sell off was lower trading but rather mild pressure. There is no way to know how strong the sell off will be until you are there in the market. Once the 8 points of lower action was fulfilled (almost to the quarter) they rallied em back up considerably. That is the springboard reaction from the second day being down.
Second, it's important to ponder,"How did Mohan know they were going to get slammed with a Bear Ugly day?" The "Bad News" we told you would occur to "explain" the Bear Ugly action showed up as "disappointing weekly initial job claims and disappointment surrounding Yahoo's earnings". ,
The point is that our TCF proprietary indicators are so powerful and accurate (most of the time) that we actually were able to tell you this would all occur before the fact. So was the "bad news" already there just waiting to be unleashed or did the internal market coding unveiled by the TCF indicators already have the Bear Ugly drop written in the cards? More on this as we progress along with our journey together in the markets.
Today's Call & Briefing:
Our Headline Call for today is for a mild upside reversal which we expect will stall, consolidate and drift lower later in the session closing about neutral. The TCF proprietary indicators are mixed today with the overall bias for lower prices still intact.
As we head into a summer range bound period let's really take advantage of the drops and rallies not getting caught up in "bullish or bearish" opinions. Ideally the market will just flip flop around this summer without any serious dramas causing strong one- sided trends. As day traders we can just get in the flow of the action and make a nice paycheck almost everyday and then go to the beach (or lake, golf course, or somewhere else fun). Certainly we don't want to sit in front of a screen all day that's for sure.
TODAY IS AN LSS BUY DAY: What this means to us as followers of the TCF (21st Century Futures) methods is that we will be watching the opening for an upside reaction. A LOWER OPENING should "feed" the LSS Buy strength but If we find that the price action is tending to hold BELOW the open then we are most likely going into an aberration on the LSS Buy day and will head lower for a day or two more. The opening range and whether the market accepts and holds above the range or rejects it and pulls back below it are really the key to the next few days. For more information on "What is an LSS Buy day?" check our " Basics of S&P500 Trading" section on the site here or on our ASK MOHAN FAQ section.
TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: We have had two 8 point profit trading days in a row which is great but I want you to be a LITTLE EXTRA CAUTIOUS TODAY. The reason is that it's Friday. Friday's tend to be POSITION SQUARRING DAYS in the market. What that means is that the traders who are hedging large million and billion dollar portfolios are adjusting things based on their view of what might occur over the weekend if anything. Options strategies and other rather complicated portfolio adjustments tend to be made Friday often making trading more difficult or at least LESS CLEAR. So follow the setups below but REALIZE that Friday is a different animal than the other days of the week.
If we get an early rally this morning with the Dow up +80 or more BUT WITH NAZ HOLDING BACK only up +10 or less with a higher TRIN around .90 or higher then lets look to Sell the BreakOut.
If we get the BreakDown as the first Hour One Pivot then we are going to look to Buy the BreakDown and look for higher prices off of that.
We also will want to Sell the Sell Pivot Target on a HIGHER OPENING if that is the first pivot hit of the Buy/Sell Pivot targets. On a LOWER OPENING and move lower FIRST we want to Buy the Buy Pivot Target. More on both of these below.
So although we have lots of trade possibilities setting up today just be sure the trade setup is really clear. If not then just stand aside for today and relish the nice few days of profits we have had as you roll into the weekend to relax.
Value Area: 982.80 - 991.60
If we get short today up at the Sell Pivot target (on a higher opening... remember) then we will be expecting the market to pull back pretty decisively into this VA below the 991.00. If you find the price action stalling at 991.00 and not holding in the VA for a 2-3 minute period then we may need to cover up the short early. Monitor the B/O price in conjunction with the Sell Pivot and see how they fly. Trade should find double support at the bottom of the VA which is also the Buy Pivot Target area in which we will be looking for a Buy on a lower opening.
Buy Pivot Target: 981.75 - 982.75
On a lower opening today below 988.70 let's buy this buy pivot target and hold long for a move higher. Use a 5 point stop at 977.50 and let's see if they can take em up.
Sell Pivot Target: 996.00 - 995.00
On a higher open and early run up let's sell this sell pivot target and use a 5 point stop at 1001.00 to hold back the buying. An early rally associated with a higher opening is expected to stall out up here which was the resistance area surrounding the opening on Thursday.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 988.50
We are closing on Thursday right on this number which you can see is what I mentioned yesterday about what I call the "Line in the Sand" action often surrounding this number. Sure they blew through it pretty decisively on Thursday but that closing action brought em right back up to deal with this area again. So we are once again on a CROSSOVER ALERT on the Pit Bull. Let's see which way the mop flops on this as we head into the weekend.
Pro Trader's Action
Are we having fun yet? As S&P500 traders it is very important to find means of smoothing out the stress from this high- speed game we play each day. Remember to laugh and have some great fun. With all those numbers spinning around in our heads all week you have to devise ways of getting away from the markets and chilling the brain. If you are a career trader like I am you learn early in this business that to survive you need to have some good exercise and recreation. Sometimes you have to FORCE YOURSELF TO GET AWAY FROM THE SCREEN... so do the needful. The neurological energy that is being surged through our systems all the time as we trade under pressure needs to be diverted frequently to stay healthy.
We have several trade setups this morning one of which is going to kick in. We may even get another trade later in the session but just be aware that today may just make a fast move early and consolidate into a low range, go-nowhere afternoon so be willing to stand aside if need be. The opening action is the key to setting up what we will be doing and be sure to keep an eye on the reaction to the opening range. The range is usually the price prints that occurs in the first minute or so of trading.
Have a great weekend and don't forget to check in over at the ASK MOHAN section after hours on most days where we are answering your important questions about the trading action. It's the "other half" of your subscription to the Morning Call.
All the best of success today and to your families who support you in your trading, Mohan
Sell 990.75/ Cover 982.75 +8pts. (Sell B/D with Bear Ugly market setup)
Recap of Thursday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining us today.
Well, they smoked em down hard as we got the Bear Ugly action we predicted on our Headline Call. The market gapped open 6-7 handles lower at 994.50 and selling kicked in which was great not only for the trade profits but the academic aspect of training you in S&P500.
I had mentioned about how for those of our subscribers who have seen what we call a Bear Ugly market it is easier to understand. So fortunately for us all on Thursday our call panned out nicely and we were able to get a decent academic example of what I was talking about for our new subscribers. The markets put in the Hour One pivot low at 990.75 and at 10:33est the BreakDown hit and got us short. Interestingly enough this 990.75 was the exact --4.25 stop/pivot off the Buy Pivot Target we had suggesting keeping an eye on. There was a reflex bounce to just under the 995.00 Buy Pivot target which would have been a short reversal had it been hit.
Those who are experienced reading and trading with our briefings got the chance to "front run" the BreakDown and get short. I got a lot of emails from successful front runners of the BreakDown on Thursday and that is super cool as we showed those guys down on the floor that we were ready for action. They hammered the market through the B/D just 3 minutes after the first hour had transpired and this was your point to nail the short if you didn't front run the action. You can see clearly on the chart above that they smacked em down lower all day and we eventually were able to cover up the short for 8 handles profit.
Due to the 2nd day of selling, the market got overcooked to the downside and they rallied em back up RIGHT TO THE PIT BULL 10 DAY MOVING AVERAGE going into the close.
There are 2 Important things to note on Thursday's action: First,we had seen the markets get hit with selling on Wednesday. When we get a second level sell off like on Thursday you will want to look to take less points on another short trade if the market is not getting strongly hammered. You could see that Thursday's sell off was lower trading but rather mild pressure. There is no way to know how strong the sell off will be until you are there in the market. Once the 8 points of lower action was fulfilled (almost to the quarter) they rallied em back up considerably. That is the springboard reaction from the second day being down.
Second, it's important to ponder,"How did Mohan know they were going to get slammed with a Bear Ugly day?" The "Bad News" we told you would occur to "explain" the Bear Ugly action showed up as "disappointing weekly initial job claims and disappointment surrounding Yahoo's earnings". ,
The point is that our TCF proprietary indicators are so powerful and accurate (most of the time) that we actually were able to tell you this would all occur before the fact. So was the "bad news" already there just waiting to be unleashed or did the internal market coding unveiled by the TCF indicators already have the Bear Ugly drop written in the cards? More on this as we progress along with our journey together in the markets.
Today's Call & Briefing:
Our Headline Call for today is for a mild upside reversal which we expect will stall, consolidate and drift lower later in the session closing about neutral. The TCF proprietary indicators are mixed today with the overall bias for lower prices still intact.
As we head into a summer range bound period let's really take advantage of the drops and rallies not getting caught up in "bullish or bearish" opinions. Ideally the market will just flip flop around this summer without any serious dramas causing strong one- sided trends. As day traders we can just get in the flow of the action and make a nice paycheck almost everyday and then go to the beach (or lake, golf course, or somewhere else fun). Certainly we don't want to sit in front of a screen all day that's for sure.
TODAY IS AN LSS BUY DAY: What this means to us as followers of the TCF (21st Century Futures) methods is that we will be watching the opening for an upside reaction. A LOWER OPENING should "feed" the LSS Buy strength but If we find that the price action is tending to hold BELOW the open then we are most likely going into an aberration on the LSS Buy day and will head lower for a day or two more. The opening range and whether the market accepts and holds above the range or rejects it and pulls back below it are really the key to the next few days. For more information on "What is an LSS Buy day?" check our " Basics of S&P500 Trading" section on the site here or on our ASK MOHAN FAQ section.
TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: We have had two 8 point profit trading days in a row which is great but I want you to be a LITTLE EXTRA CAUTIOUS TODAY. The reason is that it's Friday. Friday's tend to be POSITION SQUARRING DAYS in the market. What that means is that the traders who are hedging large million and billion dollar portfolios are adjusting things based on their view of what might occur over the weekend if anything. Options strategies and other rather complicated portfolio adjustments tend to be made Friday often making trading more difficult or at least LESS CLEAR. So follow the setups below but REALIZE that Friday is a different animal than the other days of the week.
If we get an early rally this morning with the Dow up +80 or more BUT WITH NAZ HOLDING BACK only up +10 or less with a higher TRIN around .90 or higher then lets look to Sell the BreakOut.
If we get the BreakDown as the first Hour One Pivot then we are going to look to Buy the BreakDown and look for higher prices off of that.
We also will want to Sell the Sell Pivot Target on a HIGHER OPENING if that is the first pivot hit of the Buy/Sell Pivot targets. On a LOWER OPENING and move lower FIRST we want to Buy the Buy Pivot Target. More on both of these below.
So although we have lots of trade possibilities setting up today just be sure the trade setup is really clear. If not then just stand aside for today and relish the nice few days of profits we have had as you roll into the weekend to relax.
Value Area: 982.80 - 991.60
If we get short today up at the Sell Pivot target (on a higher opening... remember) then we will be expecting the market to pull back pretty decisively into this VA below the 991.00. If you find the price action stalling at 991.00 and not holding in the VA for a 2-3 minute period then we may need to cover up the short early. Monitor the B/O price in conjunction with the Sell Pivot and see how they fly. Trade should find double support at the bottom of the VA which is also the Buy Pivot Target area in which we will be looking for a Buy on a lower opening.
Buy Pivot Target: 981.75 - 982.75
On a lower opening today below 988.70 let's buy this buy pivot target and hold long for a move higher. Use a 5 point stop at 977.50 and let's see if they can take em up.
Sell Pivot Target: 996.00 - 995.00
On a higher open and early run up let's sell this sell pivot target and use a 5 point stop at 1001.00 to hold back the buying. An early rally associated with a higher opening is expected to stall out up here which was the resistance area surrounding the opening on Thursday.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 988.50
We are closing on Thursday right on this number which you can see is what I mentioned yesterday about what I call the "Line in the Sand" action often surrounding this number. Sure they blew through it pretty decisively on Thursday but that closing action brought em right back up to deal with this area again. So we are once again on a CROSSOVER ALERT on the Pit Bull. Let's see which way the mop flops on this as we head into the weekend.
Pro Trader's Action
Are we having fun yet? As S&P500 traders it is very important to find means of smoothing out the stress from this high- speed game we play each day. Remember to laugh and have some great fun. With all those numbers spinning around in our heads all week you have to devise ways of getting away from the markets and chilling the brain. If you are a career trader like I am you learn early in this business that to survive you need to have some good exercise and recreation. Sometimes you have to FORCE YOURSELF TO GET AWAY FROM THE SCREEN... so do the needful. The neurological energy that is being surged through our systems all the time as we trade under pressure needs to be diverted frequently to stay healthy.
We have several trade setups this morning one of which is going to kick in. We may even get another trade later in the session but just be aware that today may just make a fast move early and consolidate into a low range, go-nowhere afternoon so be willing to stand aside if need be. The opening action is the key to setting up what we will be doing and be sure to keep an eye on the reaction to the opening range. The range is usually the price prints that occurs in the first minute or so of trading.
Have a great weekend and don't forget to check in over at the ASK MOHAN section after hours on most days where we are answering your important questions about the trading action. It's the "other half" of your subscription to the Morning Call.
All the best of success today and to your families who support you in your trading, Mohan
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Mohan
Mild upside reversal today to stall and consolidate neutral to lower.
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- Mensagens: 620
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